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MU experts give livestock/grains outlook overview

The outlook for livestock and grains that has been presented to U.S. House and Senate Ag committees shows cautious optimism for beef and only mild improvement on the crop side. Scott Brown, a University of Missouri Assistant Professor, told participants at the Abner Womack Missouri Ag Outlook conference while there’s a lot of beef supply, there’s good demand,  “When we look at 2018, yes, we might end up with an annual average price that’s 3 or 4-dollars lower. But, that’s an amazing price relative to just the sheer increase in the volume of beef we’re going to bring to the marketplace.”

Brown is less optimistic about pork, “We’ve got to move that pork on the other side. It’s not just about what’s been happening with additional shackle space for hogs. What do we do with all the pork that’s coming out the other end? And, when you look at those pork cutout values they’ve been running below year-ago levels for much of 2018.”

He says there’s more downside risk than upside potential but BACON has been helpful, “When you can see bacon that’s twice the price of pork chops it certainly helps the pork industry.”

Scott Gerlt, research associate with FAPRI-MU, says stocks are the biggest issue with crops, “Until we can go through some of those stocks we expect prices to be a little big lower. But, if we can return to trend yields, we expect that to play out within the next few years.”

Gerlt says corn should improve this year but be nowhere near the $7 corn five years ago, assuming there’s no drought. Gerlt says soybeans have a little more to lose than corn since they’ve been stronger but they still predict record acreage for soybeans going forward. Wheat continues to struggle.

Brown and Gerlt were two of the presenters at the Abner Womack Missouri Agricultural Outlook Conference at the University of Missouri Bradford Research Center near Columbia, Missouri.

Interview with Scott Brown~

Interview with Scott Gerlt~