Market News

Forecasts for U.S. rain pressure corn, wheat

Soybeans were higher on commercial and technical buying. Many forecasts had improved rainfall projections for most of Argentina, but it is probably too late for at least a portion of their crop. It’s roughly the equivalent of mid-September for crops in the southern hemisphere. Brazil continues to appear to be on pace for very large, if not record, production. Unknown destinations bought 20,000 tons of 2017/18 U.S. bean oil, a sign the U.S. may be starting to fill the probable vacuum left by some of the South American crop loss. Bean oil was lower Thursday’s bearish NOPA crush numbers, along with the adjustment of product spreads, with supported meal. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange held its estimate for Argentina at 42 million tons.

Corn was modestly lower on profit taking and technical selling. Corn was also watching South America, along with conditions in the U.S. ahead of widespread planting. Near term rainfall will help to recharge soil moisture in key parts of the Plains and Midwest but could further delay early planting in portions of the southeast and Mississippi Delta. Prospective planting numbers are out Thursday, March 29th, along with quarterly stocks data. Markets and the USDA are closed on March 30th for Good Friday. Ethanol futures were lower. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has Argentina’s crop at 34 million tons, unchanged from their prior projection. The European Union is exploring retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods, including corn, in response to the White House’s planted import tariffs on steel and aluminum.

The wheat complex was lower on commercial and technical selling, along with the firm dollar. Chicago and Kansas City led the way down on forecasts for rain in some U.S. winter wheat growing areas, along with the bearish fundamentals. That precipitation will likely miss some of the drier parts of the Plains and, in any event, it wouldn’t be enough to alleviate drought conditions in southern and western areas of the region. Weekly national crop progress and condition reports resume April 2nd and the USDA’s new supply and demand estimates are out April 10th. Minneapolis was modestly lower, watching weather in the northern U.S. Plains and Canada ahead of spring planting. Egypt bought 240,000 tons of milling wheat from Russia and Romania.