Lady Vols' road to the Final Four looks even tougher than usual

The Lady Vols can celebrate having the first two rounds of the NCAA women’s basketball tournament on their home court. But there’s nothing to celebrate beyond that.

Since Tennessee won its eighth national championship in 2008, it has gone nine consecutive seasons without making the Final Four. And getting through the Lexington Regional could be one of its greatest challenges yet.

In fact, you shouldn’t assume third-seeded UT will even get to Lexington, Ky.

Never mind that Tennessee is 56-0 on its home court in the NCAA tournament. If the favorites both prevail in the first round on Friday, Tennessee could be playing sixth-seeded Oregon State on Sunday at Thompson-Boling Arena.

The Beavers don’t look like your average sixth seed. They’re ranked 13th nationally and were good enough to knock off No. 2 tournament seed Oregon during the regular season. They have a 6-foot-5 senior center in Marie Gulich and a bunch of 3-point shooters.

If the Lady Vols could lose at home to Alabama, they surely could lose to the Beavers.

More:Third-seeded Tennessee Lady Vols to play Liberty in NCAA basketball tournament

More:How to watch Tennessee Lady Vols vs. Liberty in NCAA basketball tournament

But let’s assume the games go according to seeding, and Tennessee beats both 14th-seeded Liberty and whomever it faces in the second round. Then, it’s off to Lexington, where the caliber of competition likely will exceed its capabilities.

Going across country to the Spokane Regional would have been more appealing. Neither No. 1 seed Notre Dame nor No. 2 seed Oregon is as imposing as Louisville and Baylor, the top two seeds in the Lexington Regional.

Baylor is a No. 2 seed only because of what the tournament selection committee deemed a weak schedule. Talent-wise, it might be second only to tournament favorite Connecticut.

So, Tennessee basically might have to beat two No. 1 seeds to make the Final Four. Moreover, Baylor and Louisville have a recent history of sending misery UT’s way in the NCAA tournament.

The Lady Vols have lost twice to both Baylor and Louisville in their past eight NCAA tournaments. And there’s no reason to think they can change that track record.

UT center Mercedes Russell was asked Monday night if she thought her team had Final Four capabilities.

“Definitely,” she said.

She should think that way. She’s a player.

But UT fans probably think differently. They have seen their team come up short of the Final Four too often to be optimistic about the upcoming tournament venture.

Tennessee's closest tournament-elimination loss in the past nine years was by eight points. Eight of the nine losses were by double figures. Four were by 15 or more.

The average margin of defeat has been 14 points, which tells you that when things have gone bad, they have gone really bad.

There’s no better example of that than in 2009 when Tennessee lost its tournament opener to Ball State by 16 points.

As badly as the Lady Vols were playing, it was reasonable to think they would take charge down the stretch and thwart Ball State’s upset bid. Instead, Ball State finished strong.

That’s what you have come to expect in Tennessee’s tournament losses. And when you look at how tough this regional is, you should expect more of the same.

John Adams is a senior columnist. He may be reached at 865-342-6284 or john.adams@knoxnews.com. Follow him at: Twitter.com/johnadamskns.