Market News

More support in soybeans, corn from Argentina weather concerns

 

Soybeans were modestly higher on commercial and speculative buying. Forecasts have more generally dry weather in Argentina, further limiting yield potential. Outlooks for most of Brazil are good, aside from scattered harvest delays in central Brazil. Soybean meal and oil were supported by the fundamental implications of South American crop loss. The USDA’s weekly export sales report is delayed until Friday. The USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum will be held this Thursday and Friday and will give the market an early look at 2018 planting prospects. The average estimates depend on where you’re looking, but many do expect increased U.S. soybean acreage this year. The USDA’s prospective planting report is out at the end of March.

Corn was fractionally higher on commercial and speculative buying. Corn’s also watching conditions in South America, with more probable yield loss in Argentina and second crop planting delays in parts of Brazil. Domestic demand is strong and exports could increase, but there’s plenty of corn. Ethanol futures were firm. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly ethanol production and stocks numbers are delayed until Thursday. According to Allendale and wire reports, a second Brazilian corn ethanol plant doing business as FS Bioenergia, partially funded by U.S. investors, will be built in Mato Grosso. Estimates for the corn planting projection in this week’s USDA Ag Outlook Forum vary, but the major pre-report estimates are generally down slightly on the year.

The wheat complex was mostly modestly lower. Chicago and Kansas City were down on the bearish supply and demand fundamentals. Also, while still dry, parts of the southern and western Plains have received moisture this week and while some red winter areas could see flood conditions this week, Chicago probably has the most bearish fundamental outlook. Minneapolis was mixed, watching conditions in the northern Plains and Canada ahead of spring planting. Egypt bought 120,000 tons of wheat from Russia and DTN says Algeria purchased 460,000 tons of wheat from an unnamed source. Tunisia is tendering for 67,000 tons of soft wheat, along with 50,000 tons of barley. The USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum is expected to show more acres were planted to wheat in 2018 than in 2017.