The Independent View: CA Republicans on Verge of Third-Party Status

The Office of California Secretary of State Alex Padilla posted Updated Voter Registration Statistics in advance of the State’s June 5th Primary, and the Data shows a continuation of the same bleak trend line for Golden State Republicans The GOP is simply hemorrhaging Voters, both in raw numbers and as a percentage of Registered Voters.

Overall, just over 4.8 Million Californians are currently registered as Republicans, representing 25.4% of the total Electorate. That’s a loss of almost 500,000 Voters, and a huge drop from the Party’s 36% share, since the end of 1997, the first year for which Statistics are available. And that drop comes despite the fact that California’s Population has jumped from 32.5 Million to 39.3 Million over the last Two decades.

During that same 20-year time period, meanwhile, Democrats gained nearly 1.7 Million new Registered Voters, bringing their tally to 8.5 Million. Despite that growth, though, Democratic Voter Registration as a share of the Electorate has mostly flatlined over that time period, settling from 46.8% in 1997 to 44.6% this year.

The reason is an explosion of Voters, an increase of nearly 3 Million, who have Elected to Register as Independents, or what the State calls “No Party Preference”. Independents now make up an even 25% of all California Voters. That’s more than double their 11.9% share in 1997, and just a hair behind where the GOP stands. To make matters even worse for Republicans, these Voters who have Elected to express NPP tend to favor Democrats in the Polling Booth. And here’s the real kicker: It’s very probable that Registered Republicans will fall behind both Democrats and NPP Voters at some point by Election Day this fall, essentially relegating the California GOP to Third-Party status. This, in the State that sent both Nixon and Reagan to the White House.

What’s more, these trends could have a serious impact on Democratic ambitions of Flipping the House of Representatives this year, a hope that hinges on a number of Targeted Races in California. And that’s for a very good reason: Seven California GOP Incumbents currently occupy Districts that Hillary Clinton carried in 2016. And the damage may not stop there. Thanks in part to the Political Environment, controversial Congressmen like Duncan Hunter and Devin Nunes, who hold Districts that Trump won, have found themselves in the crosshairs of energetic Democratic Challengers. Democratic Candidates have filed to Run in unprecedented hordes, and many of them are raising Money at an eye-popping pace.

Since 2012, Democrats have posted Registration advantage Gains in almost all of these Districts, including the Two Defensive priorities: the 7th District, where Rep. Ami Bera won a Third Term in 2016 by a tight 2% margin, and the 24th District, where Rep. Salud Carbajal held a Democratic Open Seat that same year.

With regards to Offensive Targets, you can see why Republican Incumbents Ed Royce and Darrel Issa felt motivated to Tetire rather than defend their Seats in the 39th and 49th Districts, respectively: The ground has shifted dramatically underneath their feet since the last round of Redistricting. Another dramatic change can be seen in the 25th District, located in the Northern part of Los Angeles County, where Democrats have converted a Five-point GOP Registration edge into a Three-point Democratic Advantage. Two-Term GOP Rep. Steve Knight is not ready to call his Congressional career over, but he will face exceptional headwinds this Fall given these trends.

Overall, California Democrats have a lot of good reasons to be optimistic about painting many of these Districts Blue this Fall, and California Republicans have just as many reasons to Panic.