Starting pitching: With Jimmy Nelson on the mend, Brewers rotation up for grabs entering camp

First in a position-by-position series on the Milwaukee Brewers entering spring training. Today: Starting pitching.

In this age of advanced analytics and ever-expanding evaluation techniques, major-league managers have more tools at their disposal than ever before.

Still no crystal balls, however.

Accordingly, the Milwaukee Brewers have no idea when Jimmy Nelson will throw his first pitch in a big-league game this season. Nelson, who was having a breakthrough year in 2017 until suffering a shoulder injury in September that required surgery, is expected to miss “a good chunk” of the first half, which is not a scientific measurement.

Until Nelson’s return, manager Craig Counsell has no choice but to work with the available bodies on hand. Two of those pitchers, right-handers Chase Anderson and Zach Davies, are coming off their best seasons in the majors and will be Nos. 1-2 in the rotation (not necessarily in that order). A third righty, Jhoulys Chacin, who signed a two-year, free-agent deal, will slot in behind them.

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After that trio, nothing is guaranteed. There was speculation all winter that general manager David Stearns would add another established starter, via free agency or trade, but that has not happened yet. With personnel deals moving along at glacial speed, an addition still could take place during spring camp.

Until such a move is made, or not, Counsell will take good looks at five candidates: prodigal son Yovani Gallardo, who must show his gas tank is not empty; 2017 opening day starter Junior Guerra; swingman Brent Suter, the lone lefty candidate; and a pair of rookies, Brandon Woodruff and Aaron Wilkerson, both of whom finished last season in the majors.

Barring the unforeseen, the rotation will be filled from that group. And it might take until the final days of camp for the picture to become clear.

“I know we want to figure everything out today, but there’s time,” Counsell said. “So, we’ll take that time.”

Anderson missed six weeks in 2017 with a strained oblique, the result of a funky swing at the plate in Cincinnati. Otherwise, it was a breakthrough season as he implemented lessons from pitching coach Derek Johnson to boost his velocity and command an impressive array of pitches, including a nasty curve.

Anderson, 30, posted a 12-4 record and 2.74 ERA in 25 starts, with 133 strikeouts in 141 1/3 innings. He pitched deeper into games than in past years and earned enough confidence from management to warrant a two-year contract extension.

“Hopefully, we’ll get Jimmy back as soon as we can,” Anderson said. “But this is probably the most exciting time of my career. Nobody expected us to do what we did last year, coming within one game of the playoffs.

“Now, making the acquisitions we have, it’s an exciting time to be a Brewer. I know I’m excited. It’s awesome.”

Davies, 25, was not sharp at the outset of last season but got banner run support and kept racking up victories. A finesse pitcher who relies on pinpoint control rather than velocity, he eventually settled into a groove and became one of the top winners in the NL with a 17-9 record and 3.90 ERA in 33 starts.

Nelson made it a potent triumvirate atop the rotation by also putting together his best season. He went 12-6 with a 3.49 ERA in 29 outings, with a whopping 199 strikeouts in 175 1/3 innings, before tearing the labrum in his right shoulder diving back to first base after collecting a hit at Wrigley Field.

By all reports, Nelson’s recovery is on schedule, or a bit ahead, but it is impossible to gauge the timing of his return until he begins throwing to hitters later in the spring.

“The main thing is not having any setbacks,” said Nelson, a hard worker who admitted he’ll have to pull in the reins at time for his own good. “I want to keep moving forward.”

Chacin, 30, has bounced around the majors but threw the ball well enough last season for San Diego that the Brewers gave him a two-year, $15.5 million contract as a free agent. In 32 starts, he went 13-10 with a 3.89 ERA, with a 1.270 WHIP over 180 1/3 innings.

It’s not easy to handicap the candidates vying to fill out the rotation. Gallardo once was the team ace and is the Brewers’ all-time strikeout leader but was traded to Texas before the 2015 season and was knocked around the following years in Baltimore and Seattle.

Gallardo signed a $2 million non-guaranteed deal, so it’s a no-risk proposition for the Brewers. If he rediscovers his Milwaukee magic and wins a spot in the rotation, it’s all good. Otherwise, he won’t make the roster.

Guerra pitched so well as a 31-year-old rookie in 2016 (9-3, 2.81 in 20 starts), he was given the Game 1 assignment last season. But he blew out a calf breaking out of the batter’s box and was never the same, spending time in the minors in what became a lost year. Guerra threw the ball well in the Venezuelan Winter League (2.98 ERA in nine games for La Guaira) but it’s a different level of competition in the majors and must show he can command his trademark splitter.

Suter is the pitcher who gets no respect, mostly because his fastball tops out at 86 mph. But the Harvard graduate knows how to make the most of what he’s got, throwing up in the zone and quick-pitching hitters to keep them off-balance. When filling in as a starter last year, he was effective enough (3-2, 3.45 in 14 games) to get another shot this spring.

Considered the top starting prospect in the organization, Woodruff was summoned from Class AAA Colorado Springs to make his big-league debut in the opener of a make-up doubleheader in St. Louis on July 13. Incredibly, he strained a hamstring loosening up before the game and went on the disabled list.

Woodruff, 25, returned in August and pitched well in his early outings before running out of steam down a bit down the stretch (2-3, 4.81 in eight games overall). At some point, Woodruff is expected to be a regular in the rotation but he must prove that he’s ready to assume that role now.

Wilkerson, 28, a late bloomer who was bagging groceries a few years ago, spent the 2017 season at Class AA Biloxi (11-4, 3.16 in 24 starts) until getting a September call-up. He was given the final start of the season in St. Louis after the Brewers were eliminated from the playoff race and took a perfect game into the sixth inning of a 6-1 victory.

The Brewers have some promising pitching prospects in the pipeline, most notably right-handers Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta and Luis Ortiz. They do not figure to be in the picture this spring but have a chance to be part of a mostly home-grown rotation down the line.

If they wanted, the Brewers could have returned lefty Josh Hader to a starting role after making his debut in relief last season. But Hader was so dominant coming out of the bullpen (2.08 ERA in 35 games, 68 strikeouts in 47 2/3 innings), the decision was made to keep him there.

The general thinking is the Brewers are a starter short, especially until Nelson returns, but the rotation surprised folks in 2017 (4.10 ERA, fifth in the NL) and Davies thinks it can happen again.

“I think we’re just going to carry over from last year,” he said. “It was a very competitive group. Everybody kind of wanted to do better than the last guy who pitched. We feed off each other. We had guys step up big-time and we know we can do that again.”

By the numbers

17 – Victories in ’17 by Zach Davies, one behind NL leader Clayton Kershaw.

873 – Innings pitched by the Brewers’ rotation last year, 12th in the NL.

199 – Strikeouts by Jimmy Nelson last year, ninth-best in the league.

282 – Walks by the rotation last season, third-fewest in the league.

731 – Strikeouts by the rotation in ’17, 12th in the NL.