Inside D.C.

The “art” of the short-term spending deal

Congressional intent to fund or not to fund operation of the federal government isn’t really the question this week, but rather why would your party force a government shutdown?  It’s all about which party can win the “blame game” for a shutdown in the media and with the folks back home, while minimizing a shutdown’s negative impact on reelection prospects come November 6.

Here’s what’s happened; here’s what I think will eventually play out:

The House managed to pass this week its continuing resolution (CR) 230-197, picking up six Democrats as it watched the expected defection of 11 GOP budget hawks.  The new CR expires at midnight on February 16, and carries some “sweeteners” Republican leaders thought might entice Democrats to vote “aye.”

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D, CA), the avenging angel of Democrat immigration reform and higher non-military spending, tried to derail the GOP CR by demanding House Speaker Paul Ryan (R, WI) bring two very different immigration bills up for a vote – one authored by Rep. Bob Goodlatte (R, VA), a bill even many in the GOP consider too conservative to pass the House, and one bipartisan measure Pelosi thinks could be approved.  Ryan refused.

“This is like giving you a bowl of doggy doo, put a cherry on top and called it chocolate sundae,” she told reporters just before this week’s successful chamber vote.

When the CR reached the Senate, the Democrats – including 10 Senators from relatively conservative states up for reelection in November – all echoed Pelosi, saying they’d vote “no” on the measure because it doesn’t contain an immigration fix nor does it raise budget limits on non-military spending. President Trump says it’s really sour grapes over the GOP federal tax reform victory.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R, KY) now sits in the driver’s seat in this game of chicken.  When Minority Leader Charles Schumer (D, NY) refused to allow McConnell a simple majority vote on the House CR, he instead proposed GOP leaders move a shorter CR – measured in days, not weeks – to permit work on an immigration deal and overall budget caps.  Some GOP Senators are warm to Schumer’s idea, at least on immigration; McConnell has not publicly reacted to it.

McConnell played his ace when he announced he’d keep the Senate in session through the weekend, forcing a series of votes on issues near and dear to the Democrat agenda, including reauthorizing the Children’s’ Health Insurance Program (CHIP), portions of the DREAM Act reinvention and so on.  This strategy effectively will force those 10 Democrat Senators to vote against their own party agenda if they want to stay true to Schumer’s strategy of calling the GOP bluff on a government shutdown.

And just as the punditry of Washington, DC, was all but guaranteeing a government shutdown was inevitable, Trump did two very telling things:  He invited Schumer to the White House late Friday to talk – no doubt leveraging last week’s bipartisan group hug on immigration he orchestrated at the White House – and he cancelled Air Force One and his plans to be in much-warmer Florida for the weekend.  At the same time, House GOP leaders, who earlier in the day told its caucus members to head home for the weekend, revised its instructions telling all House members to “stay flexible” in case they need to return for unschedule votes, i.e. the Senate cuts a deal, approves it and sends it back to the House for concurrence.

Trump and Schumer are hard-edged New Yorkers of long acquaintance, so expect some kind of deal to be cut, at least between the two of them.  My guess is McConnell will accept a shorter CR to avoid the shutdown, the seemingly unending Senate procedural jousting and to get immigration off his screen.  The Democrats will not get higher budget caps on non-military spending.  Let’s hope Trump talked with Ryan before inviting Schumer to the big white house on Pennsylvania Avenue, lest this be a waste of the president’s time, and a waste of time and gasoline for Schumer.