Will Wisconsin Republicans get swamped by 2018 election wave?
Having thrown in with Donald Trump, who currently sits at a 39% approval rating, the horizon looks distinctly stormy for Republicans. The president has made history, which might make him puff up his chest with pride until someone tells him it’s for being the most unpopular president in modern history.
Meanwhile, these past several months have seen historic gains for Democrats, with wins that represent many firsts for women, people of color and LGBTQ candidates. Democrats have also eked out important victories in districts that had traditionally been red, including the most recent in Wisconsin. Patty Schachtner, a medical examiner from St. Croix County, defeated state Rep. Adam Jarchow (R-Balsam Lake) last week for state Senate, surprising just about anyone paying attention.
MORE:Democrats grab key Wisconsin Senate seat in Tuesday's special elections
The district had gone for Trump by 17 points, and Romney won it by 6 points back in 2012. Schachtner’s win (by 9 points) becomes the 34th legislative seat flipped to the Democrats since Trump took office last year.
It’s understandable that Republicans might be worried. They’ve held near total control of government in Wisconsin and nationally for several years. The Trump backlash represents a threat to that power. The wave is forming.
Walker appears to be scrambling to shore up support for his reelection bid later this year. His sudden embrace of a plan, pushed for years by Democrats in the Legislature, to reform the juvenile prison system, and subsequent about-face on the timeline for those changes, is one scramble. His recent call for yet another round of welfare “reforms” is another.
Walker has supported Trump since losing to him in the presidential race. He’s kissed the ring of an erratic demagogue rather than offering resistance or showing independence. Given that association finally seems to be toxic, it would be understandable if Walker was feeling a little panicked.
Stalwart Democrats were never going to support Walker but he now faces the risk of losing voters who cast ballots for Trump but have since changed their minds. Offering the olive branch on the Lincoln Hills issue, under the guise of recognizing the economic benefits of the plan (apparently the rampant abuse his office knew about years ago wasn’t enough to spur him to action), looks like an attempt to win over moderates.
Attacks on welfare programs are red meat for his base, including some of those now disaffected Trump voters. Attacking the poorest and most vulnerable people in the state by restricting their access to assistance still appeals to some people.
State Assembly Speaker Robin Vos (R-Rochester) points to Wisconsin’s 3% unemployment rate as evidence that, “If you want to find a job, there's no shortage of jobs available to find.” That is, if you don’t mind working for a paltry minimum (non-living) wage flipping burgers or cleaning bathrooms. The problem Republicans should be addressing isn’t how many jobs are available, but the kinds that are available.
We’ve lost much of the manufacturing work that was the state’s backbone, and where it still exists, wages and benefits have decreased. The state has done precious little to make itself attractive to innovative and growing industries, provide training and education to support them, or to enforce fair labor practices to help bolster the lives of working people.
Instead, Walker undercuts the most vulnerable, because it rallies his base supporters and makes it look like he’s taking action to save taxpayers from the “leeches." The real leeches, of course, are uber-wealthy corporations that benefited from Trump's tax bill.
Given recent trends, all the last-minute pandering and hustling may not work this time. Some waves are too big to out-run, and the Republican boat seems more rickety than ever.
Emily Mills is a freelance writer who lives in Madison. Twitter: @millbot; Email: emily.mills@outlook.com