Wisconsin Democrats hope state Senate upset signals inroads this fall
MADISON - In a special election that drew national attention and put the GOP on notice in Wisconsin, Democrats won a Republican-leaning Senate seat while racking up big gains in university communities and traditionally conservative suburbs of the Twin Cities.
Gov. Scott Walker — who had already been pushing traditionally Democratic issues like funding increases for schools — tweeted almost immediately that the results late Tuesday were a "wake-up call for Republicans."
“I think that race is a wake-up call certainly to me and the folks who work for me," Walker said again Wednesday at a stop at Milwaukee Area Technical College. "It’s a wake-up call that we can’t just assume that everyone knows about the positive things that we’re getting done for the people of Wisconsin.”
On Tuesday, Democrat Patty Schachtner overcame a financial disadvantage to beat GOP Rep. Adam Jarchow of Balsam Lake in a special election to replace Sen. Sheila Harsdorf (R-River Falls), who had stepped down after 17 years in office to become Walker's agriculture secretary.
The race crystallized months of Democratic hopes — and Republican fears — about the potential November fallout for the GOP from President Donald Trump's roughly 40% approval rating.
The fall elections are almost 10 months away — and Republicans have the benefits of low unemployment, strong campaign fundraising and Wednesday's announcement of better state budget numbers. But Tuesday's win could help Democrats raise money and recruit candidates and might persuade a few Republican incumbents not to even run for re-election.
Asked about Trump at his Milwaukee stop, Walker told a reporter he didn't have "research" so far on how voters in the western Wisconsin district felt about Trump.
But there were numbers.
Schachtner won the race 55% to 44% Tuesday in a district that Harsdorf won 63% to 37% in 2016 over her Democratic challenger. That was an 18-point improvement for Democrats.
"We really outperformed across the board," said Jenni Dye, the executive director of the State Senate Democratic Committee. "If your question is, 'Where did we do better?' The answer is everywhere."
But Democrats improved more in college campus communities and in suburbs.
For instance, Schachtner won St. Croix County 55% to 44% compared with Harsdorf's 65% to 34% win among these Twin Cities suburban communities in 2016. That's a 21-point swing that was better than the overall Democratic improvement in the district.
Democrats made gains that big or greater in Pierce and Dunn counties, which include the University of Wisconsin-River Falls and UW-Stout campuses. Students are still on winter break, leaving it unclear whether they voted in large numbers in the race.
Democrats in the 10th Senate District also improved their vote totals in rural areas like Burnett County, but the 12-point swing in that county was smaller than in the race as a whole.
Those results are consistent with national trends in which Trump has rallied rural voters while unsettling traditionally Republican suburbs like Waukesha County.
That matters for Republicans because to help Walker win re-election and unseat Democratic U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin, the GOP needs to run up the score in these suburban districts to make up for Democratic turnout in places like Milwaukee and Madison.
On Twitter, Democrats dubbed Tuesday's win a #SchachWave and the race drew national attention as the latest in a series of lackluster wins and outright losses for Republicans in recent special elections.
State Sen. Jon Erpenbach (D-Middleton) said Tuesday's margin put seats in play that he had previously seen an unwinnable for his party, pointing to the district held by Sen. Terry Moulton (R-Chippewa Falls) that borders the one Schachtner won.
After Schachtner is sworn in, Republicans will hold an 18-14 advantage in the Wisconsin Senate with one vacancy. Democrats would need to win three seats to take the majority and they are targeting districts like the one held by Sen. Howard Marklein (R-Spring Green) and the one Sen. Frank Lasee (R-De Pere) recently gave up to take a job with the Walker administration.
On Wednesday, Democrats again called on Walker to schedule a special election for Lasee's seat and the one held by former state Rep. Keith Ripp (R-Lodi), who also took an administration job. Walker spokeswoman Amy Hasenberg again rejected the request, saying it would be a "waste of taxpayer money" since the Legislature will likely adjourn by April.
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Also Tuesday, Walker's campaign reported having $4.2 million in cash at the end of December, far more than any of the more than a dozen Democrats hoping to unseat him.
Walker’s largest donation — $86,000 — came from the Republican Governors Association, a national group Walker headed last year, his report showed.
The governor also got $25,000 from each of the political action committees operated by U.S. House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) and insurer Anthem Inc. In addition, 16 people gave him the $20,000 maximum for individual donors.
The Democrats running for governor had fewer big-dollar donations than Walker, but one of them — firefighter union president Mahlon Mitchell — scooped up $262,000 from five labor groups.
The International Association of Firefighters and a political action committee tied to it each gave Mitchell $86,000. In addition, he got $45,000 from the International Union of Operating Engineers Local 139; $25,000 from the Professional Firefighters of Wisconsin; and $20,000 from the Engineers Political Education Committee.
Rep. Dana Wachs of Eau Claire received three $20,000 donations, including one from tech executive Mark Bakken, who briefly considered his own run for governor. The others came from Peggy Merrick-Bakken, Mark Bakken’s wife and the former marketing director of Nordic Consulting, and web designer Nick Hwang.
Former state Democratic Party Chairman Matt Flynn received two $20,000 donations, from Margaret Kasch and Elizabeth Elsworth-Kasch of Milwaukee.
Former state Rep. Kelda Helen Roys of Madison received one $20,000 donation, from teacher Karl Muth of Madison.
State Schools Superintendent Tony Evers’ largest donation was for $15,000 and came from Gayle Kagen, the wife of former U.S. Rep. Steve Kagen.
Kevin Crowe and James B. Nelson of the Journal Sentinel staff in Milwaukee contributed to this report.