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Trade turns attention to South American crop development

With the major January crop reports out of the way, AgriVisor market analyst Dale Durchholz says the trade will now focus on South American crop development.

Durchholz says much of the attention will be on the planting and development of safrinha corn in Brazil. That’s Brazil’s double-crop of corn that follows soybeans, normally planted in late January or early February.

“There’s one thing to keep an eye on. We’re starting to see, in central and northern Brazil, talk about maybe starting to move into a bit drier pattern at the end of January,” Durchholz says.

If that signals the beginning of the change from the wet season into the dry season, Durchholz says, it could impact the size of the safrinha crop.

“It will create additional uncertainty going forward about what kind of second-crop corn will Brazil have—and what does that mean for U.S. corn exports as we go through the rest of the winter. But also, and more importantly, into spring and summer.”

According to some analysts, an estimated 70 percent of Brazil’s total corn production in 2017/18 will be safrinha production.

AUDIO: Dale Durchholz