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USDA increases U.S. corn, soybean, wheat ending stocks estimates

 

The USDA increased 2017/18 U.S. ending stocks projections for corn, soybeans, and wheat.

2017/18 U.S. wheat ending stocks are seen at 989 million bushels, compared to 960 million in December and 1.181 billion for 2016/17. Imports were raised 5 million bushels to 155 million, putting total supply at 3.076 billion bushels. The seed use guess was lowered 4 million to 62 million bushels, while feed and residual use was slashed 20 million to 100 million bushels, for domestic use of 1.112 billion and total use of 2.087 billion bushels. The average 2017/18 farm price is estimated at $4.50 to $4.70 per bushel, unchanged from a month ago and above the average of $3.89 a year ago.

2017/18 U.S. corn ending stocks are estimated at 2.477 billion bushels, compared to 2.437 billion last month and 2.293 billion last marketing year. With a slighter lower beginning stocks figure and an increase in the production estimate, the total supply is projected at 16.947 billion bushels. Feed and residual use was lowered 25 million bushels to 5.550 billion and the food, seed, and industrial use guess was raised 10 million bushels to 6.995 billion, leading total domestic use at 12.545 billion bushels and total use at 14.470 billion. The average 2017/18 farm price is estimated at $2.95 to $3.55 per bushel, compared to December’s range of $2.85 to $3.55 and the 2016/17 average of $3.36.

2017/18 U.S. soybean ending stocks are currently expected to be 470 million bushels, compared to 445 million a month ago and 302 million a year ago. With a slight increase to beginning stocks and a decrease for production, the total supply is seen at 4.718 billion bushels. The crush use projected was raised 10 million to 1.950 billion bushels, but exports were lowered 65 million to 2.16 billion bushels and the residual use guess was down 2 million on the month to 33 million bushels, for total use of 2.248 billion. The average 2017/18 farm price is estimated at $8.80 to $9.80 per bushel, compared to $8.60 to $10 last month and $9.47 last marketing year.

2017/18 world wheat ending stocks came out at 268.02 million tons, down 400,000 from December. Global production is expected to be 757.01 million tons, compared to 755.21 million in December, with bigger projections for Pakistan, Russia, and the dozen smaller former Soviet states cancelling out a lower figure for the European Union. Domestic feed use is estimated at 143.32 million tons, compared to 142.67 million a month ago, and exports are pegged at 180.85 million tons, compared to 182.15 million last month.

2017/18 world corn ending stocks are seen at 206.57 million tons, compared to 204.08 million a month ago. World production could be 1.045 billion tons, a little bit less than in December, with a higher production figure for the U.S. canceled out by reductions in southeast Asia and the dozen smaller former Soviet states. Domestic feed use came out at 650.57 million tons, compared to 652.40 million last month, and exports are estimated at 151.51 million tons, compared to 151.61 million in December. USDA made no changes to the South American production numbers.

2017/18 world soybean ending stocks are projected at 98.57 million tons, a little bit more than last month. World production is currently expected to be 348.57 million tons, also a little bit more than last month, with lower estimates for the U.S. and Argentina offset by higher guesses for Brazil and the European Union. Domestic crush use is seen at 301.45 million tons, compared to 301.57 million in December, and exports are pegged at 152.19 million tons, compared to 152.45 million a month ago. USDA also increased its export projection for Brazil. Estimated imports by China were left unchanged.