Economist links U.S. economy to the movie 'An Officer and a Gentleman’ – Really!

A guy I know was talking about how great his 401(k) is doing these days.

He said it a few times, not bragging, really, but rather noting how Wall Street’s healthy run translated to his financial portfolio.

“It’s not because of Trump,” he quickly noted, not once, but twice. “It’s because the stock market is doing so well.”

I noticed his “not-because-of-Trump” qualifier the first time he said it. The second time, I mentioned something.

“Ain’t going to give him any credit, are you?” I said, chuckling.

“Nope,” he replied.

What the heck. To each his own, right?

Two days after that conversation, I attended the city of Cocoa’s annual economic update with about 275 other people. It was one of the best turnouts for the breakfast in quite a while.

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The keynote speaker was the always informative — and entertaining — University of Central Florida economist Sean Snaith.

Snaith mostly had good things to say. Economic growth in the United States, and Florida, is set to move from second to third or fourth gear this year, and probably into 2019, he said.

Yes, there had been growth under President Obama following what’s known as “The Great Recession.” But it was weak growth, and the economy was generally underperforming when it came to jobs, business investment and general optimism.

Now, I don’t know Snaith’s politics from his shoe size, but there was little question he was crediting President Donald Trump’s growth policies for infusing some robust red blood cells into an economy he and others believe suffers from anemia. 

Considering how polarizing our politics are these days, I imagine there were a few people that wanted to perform a hora dance around Snaith for his words. while others likely wanted to sling a plate of uneaten scrambled eggs and orange rinds at him.

As his wont when he speaks to non-economists with a passing familiarity of pop culture, Snaith makes some odd references. Last Friday in Cocoa, it was the 1982 movie “An Officer and a Gentleman.”

Trump’s policies, Snaith said, were going to put the U.S. economy “Up Where We Belong.”

(If you’re not familiar with “An Officer and a Gentleman,” the song “Up Where We Belong” was the hit by Joe Cocker and Jennifer Warnes on the movie’s soundtrack. Joe Cocker, by the way, was known for his facial tics and odd body contortions while performing, a seizure-like move that Snaith said many non-Trumpers likely continue to suffer following the 2016 U.S. presidential election.

Snaith, like most of us probably, said he expected a Hillary Clinton victory and that basically meant a continuation of President Obama’s economic policies. That may have not been the best thing, economic-wise, that is.

“We had experienced up to that point a recovery that was also historic in nature. It had been a historically weak recovery,” Snaith said. “Real GDP growth, which is now in it’s ninth year, had averaged around 2 percent, which is significantly below what historic recoveries typically exhibited.”

Now?

Well, go back to the dramatic final scene in “An Officer and a Gentleman,” where Richard Gere in his formal Navy whites goes to the factory where love interest Debra Winger is working. He picks up her to the cheers of her co-workers, and carries her out of the factory to presumably a better life. 

“Another of way of expressing this,” Snaith said, of what’s expected from the economy: “Will the Trump administration be able to 'lift us up where we belong,' in the higher-growth orbit that we’ve seen in previous recoveries?”

Yes, Snaith said, about as quickly as my buddy said 'nope' about giving Trump any credit for his 401(k).

New tax laws will spark investment from foreign shores back to the United States.

Wages will rise.

Needless regulations will be gutted and that will encourage more growth.

The housing market will have at least one to two years more of healthy steam until inventories catch up.

(Please note, Brevard County Clerk of Courts Scott  Ellis, who pens an article on FLORIDA TODAY’s Sunday Op/Ed page about a housing bubble we may or may not be in, disagrees with Snaith’s exuberance when it comes to real estate.)

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Ellis was at Snaith’s presentation, and I may have noticed funnel cloud of steam pouring from his left ear when Snaith talked about his positive outlook for housing.

Anyway, back to Snaith.

In short, with a President Trump at the controls of the economy, GDP growth this year should be about 3½ percent.

And, Snaith said, that is about “Up Where We Belong.”

Price is Business Editor at FLORIDA TODAY. He can be reached at 321-242-3658 or wprice@floridatoday.com. You can also follow him on Twitter @Fla2dayBiz.