Should Tennessee Vols running back John Kelly leave early for the NFL?

In the middle of college football’s bowl season, I always find myself looking ahead. As teams are finishing one season, I’m looking ahead to the next one.

When I peruse an SEC team’s depth chart, I dismiss the seniors and put a mental check mark beside the names of juniors likely to seek greater rewards for their talent than a college scholarship provides.

Sometimes, the decisions of those juniors overshadow the outcome of bowl games. What’s a bigger story: Winning a third-tier bowl game or losing multiple juniors to the NFL draft?

More:Three 'incoming' players who could have an impact for Tennessee next season

Let’s localize that question. What’s a bigger story: Tennessee winning the 2016 Music City Bowl or losing multiple juniors to the draft?

The Vols had little trouble taking care of Nebraska in Nashville last December. They had plenty of trouble trying to replace running back Alvin Kamara, cornerback Cam Sutton and wide receiver Josh Malone.

Imagine if all three had returned for their senior seasons, as opposed to opting for the 2017 NFL draft.

More:John Kelly, Will Ignont suspended for Kentucky game after citations for marijuana

I’m not suggesting the Vols would have challenged Georgia for the SEC East championship. But they wouldn’t have sat out the bowl season. And they surely wouldn’t have finished 4-8.

You don’t have to qualify for a bowl to lose a talented junior, though.

Take UT running back John Kelly for example.

Kelly could have a tough decision to make. Or maybe, it won’t be that tough at all.

Running backs have become increasingly aware of their longevity, even at the college level. And that should be paramount in Kelly’s thinking as he ponders leaving Tennessee early for the NFL.

More:John Kelly apologizes to fans after marijuana citation leads to suspension

He could enhance his draft stock by playing his senior season. But that must be weighed against the risk of injury.

He has been fortunate so far. After three seasons of college football, his knees and shoulders are still intact. In fact, his durability should be a plus for any NFL team in search of a running back.

However, his reputation for durability could change on any carry. That’s how career-altering one hit can be.

And that’s why players with NFL potential take out insurance policies.

I really like Kelly as a college running back. Granted, I liked him more in the last half of the 2016 season and the first half of this past season.

Adams:Vols can't afford to overload John Kelly

But his drop-off in production down the stretch of the 2017 season said more about his team than his talent. Kelly didn’t change. His offensive line did.

And while Kelly’s body held up, his offensive line didn’t. The running game was more potent when freshman star Trey Smith lined up at guard. A run of injuries forced him to play tackle, though.

You also have to consider Tennessee’s flimsy passing game in evaluating Kelly’s play this past season. Defenses could hone in on Kelly with little fear of a passing threat.

The Vols should block and throw better next season. And the combination likely would enhance Kelly’s draft status.

Returning for another college season would be a risk. But for a running back as durable as Kelly, it might be a risk worth taking.

John Adams is a senior columnist. He may be reached at 865-342-6284 or john.adams@knoxnews.com. Follow him at: Twitter.com/johnadamskns. 

SEASON IN REVIEW

Part I:Tennessee Vols offense needs a spark after woeful 2017 showing

Part II:Vols couldn't stop the run in 2017. How will Jeremy Pruitt attempt to fix it?