Rep. Bill Shuster poll: Congressman holds commanding lead over Art Halvorson

HARRISBURG -- A poll from Rep. Bill Shuster’s camp shows the congressman leading would-be challenger Art Halvorson by a wide margin should there be a 2018 primary race.

The poll results run counter to a poll taken last month by the Halvorson camp. Internal polls tend to show the candidate who hired the pollster in a favorable light.

Halvorson, a retired U.S. Coast Guard captain and real estate investor from Bedford County, has said he is considering a fourth run at the congressman who represents Pennsylvania’s 9th District. Shuster, R-Everett, chairs the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee.

More:Poll: Art Halvorson is within striking distance of Rep. Bill Shuster

In the latest survey conducted by Maverick Opinion, 58 percent of Republicans polled said they would vote for Shuster and 17 percent said they would vote for Halvorson. Ten percent said they would favor a third candidate.

 “What the data shows is what voters have said time and time again,” Shuster campaign spokesman Ray Zaborney said. “They want a conservative fighter who will stand up for Donald Trump’s agenda and that’s Bill Shuster. Art Halvorson is failed candidate who has a shameful record - from assaulting a female staffer to calling Donald Trump ‘reprehensible.’ The voters of this district are ready, willing, and able to reject Halvorson for a fourth time come 2018.”

The Maverick poll taken on Dec. 14 flies in the face of an internal Halvorson poll taken on Nov. 21 and 22. The Halvorson poll by Gravis Marketing indicated that 38 percent of Republicans would vote for Shuster and 36 percent for Halvorson in a two-person primary.

The “who would you vote for questions” in the two polls were slightly different. The Maverick poll did not give an option of being undecided, but apparently 15 percent of participants did not respond to the choice. In the Garvis poll, 26 percent chose undecided.

Older voters dominated both polls – 80 percent of the 447 participants in the Maverick poll were 55 years old or older and 68 percent of the 578 in the Gravis poll.

Maverick pollsters made 21,000 calls to get 477 responses.

“Automated calls take more calls to get the completes,” Zaborney said. “Older people do disproportionately answer the phone. They also disproportionately vote.”

More:Trump meets with Rep. Shuster to discuss infrastructure

The Maverick poll outlined strategies that would help the nine-term incumbent Shuster in a race against Halvorson. Shuster’s lead among those polled increased with questions such as:

• Would you be more likely to vote for a candidate like Bill Shuster who is helping to implement the Trump agenda and was endorsed by the President or a candidate like Art Halvorson who was critical of President Trump?
• Would it make you more or less likely to vote for Art Halvorson if you knew he was convicted of harassing a young female staffer?
• Would you be more or less likely to vote for Art Halvorson if you knew he ran on the same ticket as Hillary Clinton and Nancy Pelosi?

The questions hit Halvorson, a tea party conservative, for his criticism of Trump early in the 2016 presidential campaign, his $25 fine for grabbing the wrist of a Shuster staffer at the Fayette County Fair during the 2016 congressional campaign and Halvorson’s decision to accept an unexpected nomination by Democrats in 2016.

Zaborney is a founder and political consultant with Red Maverick Media. Maverick Opinion is a division of the company.

“We’ve been doing these (polls) internally since 2010, so we have a high level of confidence in our numbers,” Zaborney said. 

An internal Shuster poll in March 2004 showed Shuster with a commanding lead over challenger Michael DelGrosso. The survey by Tarrance Group of Alexandria gave Shuster a 62-32 margin. In April Shuster escaped with a 51-49 win in the GOP Primary.

Jim Hook, 717-262-4759