Packers at Panthers preview: Predictions, 5 things to watch

TEAMS: Green Bay Packers (7-6) at Carolina Panthers (9-4).

WHEN: Noon Sunday.

WHERE: Bank of America Stadium.

TV: Fox.

RADIO: AM-620 in Milwaukee, AM-1360 in Green Bay; Packers Radio Network.

SERIES: Packers lead, 8-5.

LINE: Panthers by 3.

WEATHER: Mostly cloudy, high around 60.

SURFACE: Grass.

COACHES: Green Bay’s Mike McCarthy (131-75-1) vs. Panthers' Ron Rivera (65-49-1).

LIVE GAME BLOG: Join Tom Silverstein for analysis and lively discussion

NFL: Live scoreboard, box scores

ROSTERS, STATS: Packers | Panthers

5 THINGS TO WATCH

RUST NEVER SLEEPS: When quarterback Aaron Rodgers returned from a broken collarbone in 2013, things didn’t start out well. On his first possession against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field, he drove the team 75 yards, but on third and 5 at the 5, he didn’t see safety Chris Conte in the end zone and threw it right into his arms. On his second possession, he threw behind receiver Jordy Nelson and cornerback Tim Jennings intercepted the deflection off Nelson’s hands. Rodgers went on to throw a game-winning, 46-yard touchdown pass, but it took time to acclimate himself with live action. The same may be true Sunday against the Panthers. “There was just rust,” quarterbacks coach Alex Van Pelt recalled. “That’ll come off. He got going later and obviously played really well at the end down the stretch. He is human, and he has been out now for seven weeks of game action. If he comes out and misses a throw here and there, it’s not going to be the end of the world and he’s going to make more than he misses.”

HITS AND MISSES: While Rodgers may miss a few, one key to how fast he comes around might depend on how quickly he dusts himself off from his first hit. In that Bears game in ’13, it wasn’t until there were 10 minutes left in the second quarter before he took a hit, a 5-yard sack by linebacker Lance Briggs. Rodgers got piled on by end Shea McClellin, the guy who broke his collarbone in the first meeting, and was not happy about it. But he survived and led the team on three scoring drives to end the half. A hit early might actually help him. “Yeah, definitely,” Van Pelt said. “I told him today as soon as we get done with pregame, I’m going to tackle him. Just get it out of the way."

GOOD THINGS COME IN THREES: When you evaluate the Panthers’ run game, you have to consider quarterback Cam Newton as one third of the attack. Newton leads all NFL quarterbacks in rushing with 585 yards and five touchdowns on 100 carries. He ranks second on the team behind Jonathan Stewart’s 634 yards and six touchdowns on 180 carries. Rookie Christian McCaffrey is third with 319 yards and two touchdowns on 90 carries. Over the last five games, the Panthers have averaged 193.6 rushing yards per game, with three 200-yard rushing games. “It’s been efficient,” Packers defensive coordinator Dom Capers said. “What you see is, I think early in the season Cam wasn’t carrying the ball as much. Now you look, he has 100 carries and he’s averaging 5.9 yards a carry, which is pretty phenomenal for a quarterback. But over the last five, six games he’s carrying that ball.”

CHEMISTRY CLASS: After seven straight games with fewer than 50 yards receiving, Nelson is probably thrilled to have Rodgers back. In the seven games Rodgers missed, Nelson had 22 receptions for 153 yards (6.95 average) and no touchdowns. In the four full games he played with Rodgers, he had 19 catches for 230 yards (12.1) and six touchdowns. Will they be able to pick up where they left off? “I hope it’s possible, that would be awesome,” receivers coach Luke Getsy said. "Remember back to the Seattle play last year when he put his hand up and Aaron knew exactly what that meant. I think there’s just a lot of that that those two have that’s special. We look forward to getting back to a lot of that again.”

MAN IN THE MIDDLE: Panthers defensive tackle Kawann Short will be another in a series of good interior players the Packers will have tried to block this season. Short has feasted on NFC North teams, collecting a pair of sacks against both Detroit and Minnesota. He has six sacks total and 23 since the start of the 2015 season, which ranks third overall among defensive tackles during that span. The Packers have faced two of the others — Cincinnati’s Geno Atkins (27) and Tampa Bay’s Gerald McCoy (20½). Throw in Julius Peppers' and Mario Addison’s 9½ sacks each and the Panthers have a formidable front. “They’ve been together awhile and they play well together,” guard Jahri Evans said. “They’re a good pressure front. They play hard, they have speed and they get after you.”

OUR PREDICTIONS

TOM SILVERSTEIN

This game may play out the same way the 2015 meeting in Carolina did: The Panthers get out to a big lead and the Packers put on a late run to make the game close. The difference in the two teams' defenses really is what will make everything swing toward Carolina. Panthers 30, Packers 27

PETE DOUGHERTY

Aaron Rodgers is back, but he hasn’t played in a game for two months, so there’s a good chance he’ll have some rust against the NFL’s No. 10 scoring defense. Cam Newton will miss some throws, but he can beat you with his legs like no other quarterback. The guess here is that will be enough for the Panthers to carry the day. Panthers 31, Packers 27

MICHAEL COHEN

By Monday morning, the state of Wisconsin will lament the same storyline it has harped on for years: The Packers need a better defense. And this time, it will cost them a trip to the playoffs. Panthers 31, Packers 24

RYAN WOOD

For all the excitement surrounding Aaron Rodgers’ activation from injured reserve this week, he's not returning to a favorable matchup. The Panthers are a good team, with a good quarterback, and the Packers' defense has struggled against good quarterbacks. So here’s a little dose of reality to ruin what’s shaping up as a Hollywood script. Panthers 31, Packers 21

AARON NAGLER

The Packers have been a great story the last few weeks, staying alive with back-to-back overtime victories. That all comes crashing to a halt this weekend, Aaron Rodgers or no. Panthers 31, Packers 24