SPORTS

Who am I supposed to cheer for to get the Packers into the playoffs?

Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

So you’re saying there’s a chance.

Aaron Rodgers missed eight weeks with a shoulder injury.

The Packers have certainly made things interesting with quarterback Aaron Rodgers sidelined, but back-to-back overtime wins at least keep Green Bay alive in the playoff hunt with three games to play. But just how much of a chance remains? Let’s take a look.

For the scenario, let’s assume the Packers win the final three games of the regular season.

Green Bay Packers wide receiver Davante Adams (17) runs for the winning touchdown in overtime against the Cleveland Browns on Dec. 10, 2017 at FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland.

It’s going to be darn near impossible if they don’t. Take this weekend’s game. If the Packers lose to the Carolina Panthers, they will have no chance at catching the Minnesota Vikings for the division, nor can they catch the New Orleans Saints or Panthers (one of those teams could win the South division, and the other would be a Wild Card). The Atlanta Falcons would only need to win one of their final three games to slip past the Packers, as well. That would be Season Over. Not only that, the Dallas Cowboys, Detroit Lions and Seattle Seahawks would still be in play for that final spot if the Falcons don’t take it. The eight-year streak of making the playoffs would be essentially over.

Let’s take a look at the divisions as they stand

NFC East: Eagles have clinched the division. Dallas is 7-6.

NFC West: Rams are at 9-4, Seattle at 8-5 (thanks, Jacksonville, for beating Seattle on Sunday)

NFC North: Vikings are 10-3, Packers at 7-6, Lions at 7-6.

NFC South: Saints are 9-4, Panthers at 9-4, Falcons at 8-5

Which teams can the Packers easily eliminate?

If the Packers win their final three games (that’s our scenario), that means they're 10-6. They don’t have to worry about the Lions (they’ll be guaranteed a better record than the Lions, having beaten them in Week 17). They won’t have to worry about the Cowboys (Dallas can achieve no better than 10-6, and the Cowboys lost to the Packers head-to-head, so Green Bay wins the tiebreaker).

The remaining teams in the mix are the Los Angeles Rams and Seahawks (one of which will win the West) and the Saints, Panthers and Falcons (one of which will win the South). Figuring in the Packers, that’s basically four teams vying for two spots. The best chance the Packers have is to work past Seattle (with whom they already hold the tiebreaker) and Carolina (with whom they’d own the tiebreaker in our win-out scenario).

Wait, can the Packers win the division still?

If the Vikings go 0-3 and the Packers go 3-0, both teams will be 10-6 and Green Bay wins the North.

In our scenario, the Packers defeat Minnesota in Week 16 at Lambeau Field. At that point, the two teams will have split the head-to-head.

Second tiebreaker: Division record. Vikings are 3-3 in our scenario (because they lose to both the Packers and the Bears to close the year) and the Packers are 4-2. So yes, if the Packers win out and the Vikings lose out, the Packers will win the division! Hooray.

Now, on to things that are far more likely.

How can the Packers get past Carolina?

Let's focus on the best possible scenario: the Packers get past Carolina and Seattle for that final Wild Card spot, and the South (either the Falcons or Saints — whichever one doesn't win the division) gets the other Wild Card.

For the Packers to have better Wild Card position than Carolina, they obviously need to win Sunday, and the Panthers need to accrue one more loss against either the Falcons or Buccaneers in the final two weeks of the season. It’s that simple.

If the Packers don’t beat the Panthers, Green Bay cannot catch Carolina, and as we discussed, it’s pretty much all over anyway.

Carolina could still win its division, but Packers fans don’t want that because the other two teams in the South mix (New Orleans, Atlanta) own head-to-head tiebreakers over Green Bay. They don’t want to be jockeying with New Orleans and Atlanta for the final Wild Card spot, because the Packers will very likely lose that battle. It is crucial that the Panthers lose another game after that.

How can the Packers get past Seattle?

Seattle must lose one more game (against the Rams, Cowboys or Cardinals) to finish no better than 10-6. Since the Packers are winning out anyway, that’s all it takes, with the Packers owning the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Seahawks. But it’s not quite that simple, either.

It would be pretty helpful if the Rams went ahead and beat Seattle this weekend, because it’s not to Green Bay’s advantage to have Seattle in position to win the NFC West. If Seattle wins Sunday, it would have the same record as the Rams (both 9-5) and would own the tiebreaker, having gone 2-0 in the head-to-head. The Packers would rather jockey with Seattle for a Wild Card than the Rams since they've beaten the Seahawks and have a big tiebreaker.

Even if the Rams win, that doesn’t guarantee a division title. It would be a two-game lead with two games to play, but Seattle could win out and the Rams could lose out to both end the year at 10-6.

First division tiebreaker: If the Rams win this weekend, both teams would be 4-1 in division games. In the win-out/lose-out scenario, though, the Seahawks would win their final division game and the Rams would lose theirs, meaning Seattle would win the tiebreaker and the division with both teams tied at 10-6. Boo.

If the Rams lose on Sunday, now they’re 9-5, and Seattle is in great position to win the division. Now, the Packers have to worry about a tiebreaker against the Rams.

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Green Bay Packers quarterback Brett Hundley (7) throws a pass for a touchdown under pressure from Cleveland Browns outside linebacker Christian Kirksey (58) during the first quarter at FirstEnergy Stadium.

But if Seattle wins the West, how can the Packers get past the Rams?

Let’s say the Rams lose to Seattle. If the Rams do wind up losing their final two games, as well, streaking Green Bay would pass them on record alone. Fat chance of that happening, guys. But it’s possible.

If the Rams do lose to Seattle and the Seahawks go on to win the division (they would only have to win one of their final two games to do it), the Packers will need the Rams to lose at least one more game. That’s putting an awful lot of faith in the Tennessee Titans or San Francisco 49ers.

If the Rams do lose that extra game and finish 10-6, the Packers have a chance to get them in the tiebreaker, though.

First tiebreaker: Record vs. NFC. Packers have an 8-4 record vs. NFC in this scenario. Rams can't do better than 7-5. Boom! Packers get the edge.

If the Rams beat Seattle, lose their final two games, finish 10-6 but don't win the division because Seattle won their final two games and also finished 10-6, the Rams record vs. the NFC would still be 7-5 (first tiebreaker with Packers) and the Packers would still get the edge.

So that’s great, the Packers are set up to have a tiebreaking edge over the Rams. But for any of this to happen, the Rams would have to lose one more time after losing to Seattle for the Packers to get past them.

Update: This is cleaned up from the initial version, which went to the second tiebreaker (which the Packers still won) after incorrectly suggesting that the Rams could finish 8-4 in NFC games with a loss to Seattle. They cannot. Thanks to reader Mike Accola for pointing out the glitch.

DOUGHERTY: Even with Rodgers, road to playoffs remains rocky

How can the Packers get past the Falcons?

Atlanta has a one-game lead on the Packers and the tiebreaker, so in the scenario where Green Bay wins out, Atlanta must still lose two of three against the Bucs, Saints and Panthers and finish 9-7. It’s possible but tough, especially because the Packers will also want Carolina to take another loss after Week 15.

Update: This probably undersells how valuable it would be to the Packers if the Bucs beat the Falcons this week (or if the Saints beat the Falcons next week). It would set up a Week 17 scenario between the Falcons and Panthers where the loser is guaranteed to finish behind the Packers (Carolina would either get that one extra loss it needs in Week 17, or Atlanta would get its second, and the Packers would leapfrog the loser).

Of course, that's only part of the equation -- the Packers still need the West situation to work out, too. Not to mention that, ideally, Green Bay could slip past both Carolina and Atlanta. The perception of that Week 17 game will certainly be impacted by the two weeks ahead.

As noted below, Packers fans should be huge supporters of the Other Bay for the next two weeks. Who's Gonna Win It? The Bucs! The Bucs!

How can the Packers get past the Saints?

Very difficult. The Saints must go 0-3 against the Jets, Falcons and Buccaneers. They have a two-game lead on the Packers and own the tiebreaker, so they have to finish 9-7 for Green Bay to vault them.

Let's assume that's not going to happen, especially because an Atlanta win over the Saints also hurts the Packers.

Let's therefore nominate the Saints as our preferred winner of the NFC South.

Sure, they could lose out and the Packers could vault them. But that’s unlikely, and Green Bay wants the Saints to win the division so it doesn't have to mess with them in a tiebreaking scenario.

You can definitely cheer for the Jets to beat the Saints next week (keeping the Saints-losing-out scenario alive), but win or lose, the Saints could still get caught.

The Saints could lose their final two (finishing 10-6) and the Panthers win their final two to finish 10-6. The Falcons would go 1-1 as a result (because they would have lost to Carolina and beaten New Orleans), but they’d probably also be 10-6 after a win over Tampa Bay this weekend. The three-way tie is bad for the Packers. In this scenario, the Saints would be 3-3 against divisional foes and the other two would be 2-2. That knocks the Saints into the Wild Card discussion, and Carolina gets the divisional title over Atlanta based on a 2-0 head-to-head record. The Packers would be out, because they’d lose the tiebreakers to both New Orleans and Atlanta for those Wild Card spots.

Thus, the Jets-Saints game doesn’t mean a whole lot, other than it keeps one longshot alive if the Jets win. There's value and danger either way. On the other hand, you should cheer lustily for Tampa Bay to beat Atlanta, keeping this scenario out of play and also bringing the Falcons closer to the Packers.

So who should I cheer for?

The Packers. Else, why are you reading this?

Tampa Bay, at least in Week 15 and 16. The Packers want the Bucs to beat Atlanta this weekend and Carolina the next one. In fact, if Tampa Bay can win both those games (haha), the Packers are in great shape, because in our win-out scenario, they will have officially passed Carolina and moved within one game of Atlanta. The Packers don’t need to catch Atlanta if they can also bypass Seattle, but it would be one more opportunity. There’s a chance we’ll want Tampa Bay to lose in Week 17 to shore up the divisional title for the Saints, but that’s too complicated to predict for now.

The LA Rams in Week 15 (and probably beyond). A win over Seattle is a huge boost to the Packers, because it would put Green Bay past Seattle in tiebreaking standing (in the Packers-win-out scenario that we're using) and also make it very difficult for the Seahawks to win the West, which is what the Packers want. The Packers might still wind up in a tiebreaker with the Rams if the Seahawks get past them, but that creates a more difficult scenario for the Packers. For now, cheer for the Rams.

The Saints in Week 16 and 17. Feel free to cheer for the Jets to beat the Saints in Week 15, since that keeps a Saints-could-lose-out scenario in play. Whether the Saints win or lose, they’re still in position to lose a tiebreaker for the NFC South and get in the Packers way as a Wild Card contender. But Green Bay wants the Saints to take that division (and beat Atlanta in the process in Week 16) and be removed from the Wild Card mix, so cheer for them in their final two games of the season. Saints losses only benefit the Packers if they lose all three.

Dallas in Week 16 and Arizona in Week 17. Beat those Seahawks.

Cincinnati in Week 15 and Chicago in Week 17. Beat those Vikings (both of you, else it doesn't matter).

Best scenario

Packers win out. Seattle loses once more (preferably against the Rams) and doesn't wind up winning the West. Carolina loses once more after losing to Packers. Playoffs!