I’ve written a couple of posts on what I hope will and will not change when American and US Airways merge and their frequent flyer programs become one new AAdvantage program. I also managed to generate a few comments and pageviews (for a random noon hour post) when I wrote my piece on why I thought American will not become US Airways in disguise. I felt it was only fair to write a post on the things that I am almost certain will change as US Airways and American Airlines become one. I caveat this with “almost” certain because nothing is ever 100 percent in the airline industry, and really, this is just intended to have a little fun and perhaps generate some good discussion. đŸ™‚
The Livery – When the new American Airlines paint job appeared earlier this year, I’ll admit that I was disappointed. While it has grown on me just a bit over time, and really does look slightly better in person than in photographs, it quickly devolved into a love – hate thing for us AvGeeks. You either loved it or you didn’t. Maybe the paint haters are more vocal, or maybe that tail art really is as bad as I initially thought it was. I think the paint job is going to change, or at least evolve a bit, especially the tail art.
The Hubs – There are a lot of media types who spout off about the merged airline shutting down this hub and that hub. Usually the conversation comes down to something like Charlotte is in North Carolina, and doesn’t have X amount of local traffic, or Philadelphia is too close to New York. They, of course, have never been to Charlotte, and don’t have a clue what the real financial numbers are behind these hubs or any other….and for that matter, neither do I (but I have been to Charlotte đŸ™‚ ). Here’s what I do know. Routes and hubs will be optimized for maximum revenue and lowest cost. That likely means that things will change. Charlotte, for example, may not see another seasonal European flight expansion like it is seeing this summer. Further, Charlotte may lose its Lufthansa nonstop to Munich once US Airways exits Star Alliance. But that’s not to say that there won’t be an increase in service to London or Madrid for increased Oneworld connectivity. Who knows, British Airways may even return to the Charlotte – London route. Yes, they once flew it, and no, I’m not talking about the wet lease agreement with then US Air. Lufthansa operated its own nonstop services between Charlotte and Frankfurt in the days before US Air decided to add its own flight too. Whatever happens, change is coming to the hubs, and it might not all be negative.
The A321T – Nonstop JFK to LAX/SFO services in a 3 cabin A321? This is the one I’m least certain about. I’ll admit, I didn’t much care for the idea of a 102 seat A321. I thought it was a cute idea whose time had probably passed. In American’s defense, they know what their revenue and expense numbers are for these premium routes. At this point, I think it’s almost too late for these new transcon services to be operated in any other configuration with the A321, and that means that the new management team is going to see how the numbers look with these new birds replacing the very tired 767-200 (sad face) transcon fleet at AA. Maybe the revenue premium they can collect with a true 3 cabin premium service will exceed their wildest dreams and my expectations. I just don’t think that’s going to happen, which is why I think the 3 cabin transcon will eventually be a thing of the past at the new American.
So there you have it from my perspective. Now, what do you think? I’d love to hear your comments.
-MJ, November 19, 2013
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5 or 8 years from now American will have fewer hubs. There is no way that NYC, PHL, ORD, PHX and LAX will all still be AA hubs. I think DFW, CLT and MIA will for sure still be hubs. CLT and DFW simply because of AA’s dominance and market share in those cities, and MIA due to the importance of Latin American service. But as the new management starts to prune less profitable flying, and after the 5 year commitment in their anti-trust settlement expires, I expect to see at least one hub get downgraded. Seems like PHX may… Read more »
Even though flights are always delayed coming in/leaving PHL (My home airport), I hope it becomes a hub for American. Getting to the airport is so easy (a 23 minute train ride from the city with the train coming every 30 minutes), and it does have some good non-stop service to Europe and the West Coast. I also hate the Philly airport because (like I said) the flights are delayed all the time! And it’s one of the least attractive airports. Also, the star alliance lounge could use an update. Even though I like the PHL airport, I’ll take the… Read more »
Just guessing here, but I’m not so sure about the LH CLT-MUC going away. With BMW and a host of other German automotive manufacturing just down Autobahn, I mean I-85 I believe they will maintain that service. Maybe curtailed a bit though.
@Mike, I think you raise a good point. And that’s partly why I slipped in the quip about LH operating its own services to FRA before US decided to jump in. As I understand it, there is quite a bit of German business in and around Charlotte in addition to BMW.
The DOJ lawsuit makes keeping the new livery more likely, I think. The more planes in the new livery, the most costly to repaint. And even though Doug Parker wants to make the airline ‘his’ he also doesn’t like to spend money. đŸ˜‰ All existing hubs will remain hubs for a few years under the DOJ settlement, I think JFK and LAX are better than PHL and PHX and you don’t make money overflying your own hubs but Parker also doesn’t like competition so it isn’t clear what operations ultimately ‘win out’. This will certainly be changes to all of… Read more »
@Gary, all valid points. I’ll admit the A321T is the one I’m most torn about. I remember when AA rolled out the 3 class “Flagship” transcons. My first try of caviar was in F on a DC-10 from MIA to LAX. Those were the days!
I don’t see how in the world the A321T is going to work. Going into the peak spring/summer period, AA will be down 20-30% in capacity on JFKSFO, simply due to the smaller gauge. CASM is going to be horrible. Clearly they are banking on the premium cabin traveler. But then you have B6 come in and announce Mint, along with a sizeable decrease in the premium cabin fares. Doesn’t spell success for AA, in my opinion.