Market News

Corn up, soybeans mixed to start short week

 

Soybeans were mixed, mostly fractionally lower. With most forecasts calling for a warm, dry week in many areas, harvest should be very close to wrapping up soon. The USDA says 96% of U.S. soybeans are harvested, compared to the five year average of 97%. South American planting conditions are mixed. Recent rainfall in central Brazil hasn’t met all expectations and while parts of southern Brazil and Argentina could see rain near term, longer term outlooks are drier. It’s roughly the equivalent of late May in the Southern Hemisphere and, globally, we’re in a weak La Nina pattern, which could mean more dry conditions on parts of that continent. Safras e Mercado estimates 71% of Brazil’s soybean crop is planted, compared to 71.5% on average. The Rosario Grain Exchange says that in 2016, ports in Gran Rosario shipped 39.36 million tons of Argentina’s soybean exports, compared to 38.96 million tons of U.S. beans shipped from New Orleans. Soybean meal was higher and bean oil was lower, adjusting product spreads.

Corn was modestly higher on commercial and technical buying. Corn was also watching U.S. harvest conditions and planting weather in South America. As of Sunday, 90% of U.S. corn is harvested, compared to 96% a year ago and 95% on average. The USDA’s next set of supply, demand, and production numbers is out December 12th with the final 2017 production totals due in January. Ethanol futures were lower. The Rosario Grain Exchange says Gran Rosario area ports accounted for 82% of Argentina’s corn exports in 2016, or 19.3 million tons, compared to 50% or 14.2 million tons in 2015. The trade’s watching ongoing NAFTA renegotiations in Mexico.

The wheat complex was lower on fund and technical selling. The fundamentals remain bearish, especially on the global supply side of the market, but losses were limited by good commercial demand. According to the USDA, winter wheat planting is officially over and 88% of the crop has emerged, matching the usual pace. 52% of the crop is in good to excellent shape, down 2% on the week. The USDA’s first official winter wheat acreage estimate of the season is out in January. The long term potential for dry conditions in parts of the U.S. Plains caused by the weak La Nina weather pattern may not be a real issue for wheat until the crop comes out of dormancy. Futures close early on Wednesday, re-opening Friday after Thanksgiving. Turkey bought 230,000 tons of wheat from the European Union. Jordan is tendering for 100,000 tons of milling wheat and Iraq is in the market for 50,000 tons of wheat.