Haudricourt: Which Brewers players will take next step?
There is no way to know what to expect from the Brewers, in terms of wins and losses, during the 2017 season.
This, of course, can be said about nearly every team, nearly every season (though I suspect the Cubs will be pretty good this year). But there is one specific reason why it is impossible to project the Brewers’ record: Ryan Braun is the only regular player with a proven track record.
Many of the players who will line up for player introductions before the season opener Monday afternoon at Miller Park made breakthroughs of various degrees last season. Will they take the next step this year, spin their wheels or go backward?
Minus a crystal ball, it’s a safe bet to say some players will land in each of those three categories. If more of them take the next step, the rebuilding Brewers could improve on their 73 victories of a year ago. If more go backward, the won-loss record will go with them.
That’s both the beauty and the curse of rebuilding processes. There is no timetable, no set formula on which to rely. Each blueprint is part trial and error. There will be keepers along the way and some who go by the wayside.
“Some will make it and some won’t,” manager Craig Counsell said. “We sort of know that from the past.”
Jonathan Villar took the biggest step of the new everyday players in 2016, becoming a dynamic leadoff hitter with a big impact despite his base-running misadventures. The Brewers thought enough of that performance to broach a $20 million contract extension, but Villar turned it down with expectations of doing better through arbitration. You have to like that kind of confidence.
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Hernan Perez took a major step forward, becoming a super utility man capable of playing both the infield and the outfield while making a difference offensively. It will be up to Counsell to find ways to keep him in the lineup.
Centerfielder Keon Broxton failed miserably in the early stages of the season but found his bearings over the final six weeks and showed tremendous upside. If he continues that trend this season, the Brewers will have an embarrassment of riches at that position, including an impressive crop of prospects in the minors.
The keys to moving the rebuild forward could prove to be corner infielders Eric Thames and Travis Shaw. The Brewers are taking a significant gamble at first base on Thames, releasing home run co-champ Chris Carter to see if three fantasy-league seasons in Korea will translate to the majors. Shaw hit 16 homers with 71 RBI in 145 games at third base for Boston last season, but the Red Sox dealt him after a late-season slide, so he has plenty to prove.
Speaking of things to prove, we move to shortstop Orlando Arcia, the organization’s former No. 1 prospect whose first two months in the majors in 2016 were quite underwhelming. The Brewers have collected middle-infield prospects over the past two years, so Arcia must prove he deserves a long leash as the team’s shortstop of both present and future.
After years of stability and production from catcher Jonathan Lucroy, the Brewers enter a new era of catching. They will let Manny Piña and Jett Bandy battle for playing time with hopes that one will step forward and become the new No. 1 catcher but won’t mind if it becomes a shared effort.
As always, the team’s ultimate success will rest on its starting pitching. When the rotation was a mess in the early months of last season, the team struggled to win games. When Junior Guerra and Zach Davies arrived from the minor leagues to stabilize the group, victories came more frequently. It’s one of the oldest axioms in the game: If you don’t have pitching, you don’t have anything.
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Beyond Guerra and Davies, big right-handers Jimmy Nelson and Wily Peralta will be given another chance to prove they are winners. Veteran Matt Garza stays mostly by virtue of his $12.5 million salary, but at some point the Brewers must start moving younger pitchers into the rotation.
The Brewers have had issues developing starting pitchers and that has to change if they are going to compete for the playoffs again because, unlike the Cubs, they can’t afford big-ticket free agents as finishing pieces. Bullpens always are under construction, so look for pitchers to come and go there.
One way or the other, this is going to be an interesting season because no one really knows how it might pan out. The goal is to remain competitive and sort things out along the way, with a well-stocked farm system at the ready.
“We’re looking to see which players are ready to take the next step,” Counsell said. “A lot of them took that first step last year.”
Some will. Some won’t. Let’s see how many are up to it.
