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Misery Index Week 4: Reality check for Boise State after bad night against Virginia

Dan Wolken
USA TODAY

If you know someone who loves Boise State football, it’s time to sit them down and have “The Conversation.” It won’t be pleasant, and make sure to prepare yourself for the possibility that there will be cursing, crying and outright denial involved. But the Misery Index suggests doing this as quickly as possibly to help the Boise State fan in your life come to terms with the reality of life in the post-Chris Petersen era. 

Boise State fans watch the game during first half against Virginia.

Sorry, Boise State, but it’s never going to be like it was. 

Nobody’s going to take those trophies out of their cases or erase the memories of an era in which the Broncos were a factor year after year, disrupting the polls and the Bowl Championship Series to the point where we could legitimately talk about them as a possible national title contender. 

But the man who was mostly responsible for those wins now coaches in Seattle. And it isn’t a slight to the program or Bryan Harsin to be honest about the fact that those days aren’t coming back. 

Boise State can still be a good program. Heck, it still is even today, despite getting embarrassed at home by Virginia on Friday night, 42-23. Because of the tradition and the facilities and the institutional commitment to football, Boise State will continue to win games, compete for Mountain West titles, make appearances in the Top 25 and potentially play in major bowl games again. 

But what’s become clear since 2013 is that Petersen is a top-five college football coach. And unless Boise State replaced him with another top-five college football coach, this decline, such as it is, was always going to happen.

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It’s nobody’s fault. Nobody did anything wrong. Petersen gave eight great years to Boise State, staying longer than many people thought he would after experiencing such tremendous initial success.

Like many transcendent coaches, however, Petersen made it look kinda easy to do what he was doing. But it’s not easy. It’s brutally hard. To go 57-6 against conference opponents, to post four top-10 finishes at a program like Boise State, to beat behemoths like Oklahoma and Georgia and Virginia Tech on the regular, takes a level of coaching talent that is just not found very many places. 

Yes, Boise State has fallen off in the three-plus years since Petersen departed. Of course it has. And it’s understandable that fans have had a difficult time processing the idea that Harsin’s record is actually quite good. In his three seasons prior to this one, he’s gone 12-2 (with a Fiesta Bowl win), 9-4 and 10-3. 

Boise State has undeniably found it more difficult to be part of the national conversation in those years, and obviously it’s going through a bit of a rough patch right now at 2-2. The Virginia loss was bad and unexpected and depressing. 

But nothing lasts forever in college football, and Boise State fans need to come to terms with that. Petersen isn’t coming back, nor is the glory from that era. It’s time to see the program for what it really is. 

(Disclaimer: This isn't a ranking of worst teams, worst losses or coaches whose jobs are in the most jeopardy. This is simply a measurement of a fan base's knee-jerk reaction to what they last saw. The way in which a team won or lost, expectations vis-à-vis program trajectory and traditional inferiority complex of fan base all factor into this ranking.)

FIVE MOST MISERABLE

Boise State: If the Broncos don’t get some things cleaned up quickly, they’ll be in danger of having a losing record in October for the first time since 2001 when they started 2-3. Though Brigham Young is no great shakes this year, it’s still a road game and a rivalry. Then Boise State has to go to San Diego State, which solidified itself as the Mountain West favorite with a win at Air Force. The big question for Harsin going forward is whether Boise can contend in the conference. Wyoming, Colorado State and Air Force are all good enough on paper to beat the Broncos this year, but you have to think some program pride will kick in after the tail-kicking they absorbed from Virginia. Though it’s silly to suggest Boise should even consider a coaching change — Who do angry Boise State fans think they’d get to replace him? — it’s true he hasn’t won a conference title since his first season. Three straight years falling short of that measuring stick isn’t a reason to fire him, but it’s not the best look, either. 

Tennessee: Were the Vols even awake on Saturday in a 17-13 win over Massachusetts that required their defense to stop the Minutemen five consecutive times to close out the game? While it never felt like Tennessee was actually going to lose this game, it looked like a program that was merely going through the motions. And Tennessee isn’t in a place right now where going through the motions is a good look. If the players in that locker room are as bought into Butch Jones and his staff as they need to be, why aren’t they excited to go play football? Why didn’t they come in with purpose and passion? Why couldn’t they impose their will on a bad UMass team that came into the game 0-4? Tennessee fans started the season largely skeptical of Butch Jones, and his approval rating hasn’t gone up at all one-third of the way through the schedule. Tennessee seems to have an identity crisis on offense: Are they a spread team? Do they want to play physical football and ride running back John Kelly? Do they really trust Quenten Dormady at quarterback, or is it time to give Jarrett Guarantano a shot? It’s hard to watch Tennessee and figure out what they’re trying to accomplish on offense, and their defense doesn’t have enough SEC level talent due to injuries and other roster issues. So where do we go from here? It was already an ugly environment around the program following the last-second loss at Florida, and now Tennessee faces a game next Saturday against Georgia that could solidify the narrative around Jones for the foreseeable future. If the Vols can’t win at home, closing the book on their SEC East title hopes yet again, it will be time for a serious conversation at Tennessee about whether the program can continue on this path or if it’s time to start over. 

Arkansas: Do you ever have that one hole at your favorite golf course that just ruins every round? No matter how many times you play it, whether you go left or right, hit it short or long, you’re always fighting a triple bogey. That’s Arkansas in the Texas A&M game. Three out of the last four years, the Hogs have lost in overtime at the stadium one of their most famous alumni built. Indeed, Arkansas paid tribute to Jerry Jones for his Hall of Fame induction on Saturday by wearing silver helmets and pants to incorporate elements of the Cowboys uniform, which actually made Arkansas look more like Ohio State. Unfortunately for the Razorbacks, they didn’t play like Ohio State. Though Bret Bielema’s team fought back after blowing a 21-7 lead, it couldn’t close the deal either at the end of regulation with a defensive stop or in overtime and suffered a stinging 50-43 defeat. Arkansas should be able to get well against New Mexico State next Saturday, but there are some defining games coming up for Bielema. As bad as it looks right now at 1-2, the Hogs have a path to eight wins. But they need to beat the likes of South Carolina and Ole Miss and steal one against either Auburn or Mississippi State at home. The reason Arkansas fans object so much to Bielema right now, however, goes beyond wins and losses. The foundation of his program was supposed to be the offensive line, and as we sit here in his fifth season the Razorbacks looked very, very average at that position against Texas A&M, giving up six sacks. Arkansas isn’t really a power running team anymore, so what brand is Bielema selling these days? Based on the thousands and thousands of empty seats at Jerry World on Saturday, it seems Arkansas fans aren’t buying it anymore.

Houston: Few programs in the country think more of themselves for accomplishing so little as the Cougars. If things go bad under Major Applewhite, there will be plenty of snickering around college football as mega-booster Tilman Fertitta’s insistence on a one-sided buyout simply was not reflective of Houston’s place in the pecking order of college football. The details of what Applewhite agreed to are, quite simply, galling. Per the terms of the deal, Applewhite would owe the school $1.5 million for every year remaining on the contract, plus half the remaining contract value of his assistant coaches if he left. If he left for another school in Texas, the buyout would increase an additional 50 percent. By contrast, the school would owe Applewhite $650,000 for each year remaining on his deal if he were fired. It smacked of Houston getting its feelings hurt after Art Briles parlayed success at Houston into the Baylor job, Kevin Sumlin took off for Texas A&M and Tom Herman left for Texas. Fertitta, meanwhile, told the Houston Chronicle after hiring Applewhite that he “better win 9, 10, 11 games a year, too, from our standpoint” while emphasizing the school got rid of Tony Levine after going 8-5 and 7-5 in his final two years. “Don’t ever forget that,” Fertitta said. “We expect to win at the University of Houston.” With all that said, the snickering has begun. Houston looked quite bad at home in a 27-24 loss to Texas Tech on Saturday, a game that wasn’t as close as the final score indicated as the Cougars scored twice in the final few minutes while the Red Raiders were on cruise control. While the Applewhite hire may ultimately prove to be a good one, this was a step back from the Tom Herman era, where Houston typically shined against high-profile opponents. Houston may think it’s a Power Five program unfairly stuck in the American Athletic Conference, but the Cougars may be in for a rude awakening. 

Nebraska: It was quite a week for the Cornhuskers. After losing to Northern Illinois, they fired athletics director Shawn Eichorst, which presumably starts the clock on Mike Riley and another coaching change after just three seasons. Then Nebraska struggled at home with Rutgers in a 27-17 win — not a great sign for the health of your program, ever — while golden boy alum Scott Frost took his Central Florida team to Maryland and won going away. This is now going to be the issue that hovers over Nebraska (and UCF, by association) for the next couple months. Is Frost seasoned enough to win in the Big Ten? There will be debates, scoreboard-watching and pushback against the idea that Nebraska needs to be saved by an alum who loves the program. Meanwhile, the Cornhuskers still have eight more games to play, but they will all feel small and unimportant in contrast to the existential questions that surround Nebraska football as it strives to be as big and important as it once was. 

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MISERABLE, BUT NOT QUITE MISERABLE ENOUGH

Kentucky: Poor Kentucky. Poor, poor Kentucky. How much more can they do and still come up empty against Florida? The longest active streak among all annual rivalries in college football is now at 31 years and counting for the Gators after a 28-27 win in Lexington. But it should have been over. It should have been history. Kentucky had a 27-14 lead with 11:33 remaining after a 50-yard field goal, and it felt like they were just one stop or one more score away from putting Florida away for good. But then, whatever awful karma seems to happen to Kentucky in this particular game happened again. Florida scored. Then Kentucky punted. Then the Gators went 13 plays, converting two fourth downs, before Luke Del Rio found Freddie Swain wide open for a go-ahead touchdown with 43 seconds left. Even then, Kentucky had enough time to get in position for a longshot 57-yard field goal — a critical holding penalty with 21 seconds left didn’t help — but came up short. It was a sad, sad scene. Kentucky has lost to Florida in a variety of ways over the last 31 years, but none could have been more painful. 

Missouri: The most noteworthy thing to come from the Tigers’ 51-14 loss to Auburn was coach Barry Odom coming into his press conference with what seemed like a semi-prepared “state of the program” address in which he talked defiantly and passionately about needing time to turn Missouri around. He noted various points where predecessors Larry Smith and Gary Pinkel were seemingly in trouble before breaking through and winning football games and referenced his time at Memphis with Justin Fuente, where they lost big for two years before resuscitating a downtrodden program. It felt like Odom, who is now 5-11 as head coach, fighting for his job and sending a message to an athletics director in Jim Sterk who didn’t hire him. Will it make a difference? Who knows. The reality is Odom has a small buyout ($1.8 million) and the Tigers have shown nothing this year to suggest winning is in their future. Odom inherited bad circumstances and probably does need time, but he also made questionable staff hires and needs to send a message to Missouri fans beyond words that he’s the man for the job. That can only happen on the field. 

Florida State: For the second straight year, the Seminoles have eliminated themselves from the national championship conversation by October. A year ago, it was a blowout loss to Louisville and a stunning last-second field goal at home by North Carolina that did them in. This year, it was the combination of playing Alabama in the opener, a season-ending injury to their starting quarterback and perhaps some rust after Hurricane Irma caused two games to be cancelled/postponed. Of course, give North Carolina State some credit, too. The Wolfpack did just enough against Florida State’s elite defense, putting together a couple long touchdown drives and hitting a 71-yard touchdown pass to build a 27-16 lead in the fourth quarter before holding on, 27-21. Still, even if Florida State fans knew this season was going nowhere after Deondre Francois’ injury, it’s tough to actually have to take that medicine against N.C. State. Furthermore, after going 18-0 in the ACC with Jameis Winston at quarterback, Florida State is now just 11-6 in the league since his departure. Regardless of the quarterback, that’s a fairly pedestrian record for a program that wins on national signing day like the Seminoles.

Pittsburgh: The alarm bells should have sounded this offseason when celebrated offensive coordinator Matt Canada left for LSU and Pat Narduzzi replaced him with Shawn Watson. This isn’t meant as a personal insult, but Watson’s offense should have been put in the dust bin of history many years ago. Sure, Watson experienced some fairly recent success as a coordinator in 2012 and 2013 when he coached Teddy Bridgewater at Louisville. But other than that, he wasn’t very good at Colorado in the early 2000s, wasn’t very good at Nebraska in the latter part of the decade and was disastrous at Texas when Charlie Strong took him there to allegedly run a spread offense rather than the West Coast scheme he knew. Now Watson is at Pitt, and well, it's going about as well as you’d expect. Pitt hasn’t scored more than 21 points in regulation of its first four games, but he's by no means alone in getting the blame here. Narduzzi is supposed to be defensive guru, but the Panthers looked helpless against Oklahoma State a week ago giving up 59 points. Then Georgia Tech did what it does, beating Pitt 35-17 on Saturday and racking up a 484-235 advantage in total yards. The idea Pitt couldn’t even come close to beating the Yellow Jackets despite getting gift after gift — four Georgia Tech turnovers in all — is a huge indictment on Narduzzi’s program. After doing some good things his first two years, it looks like the Panthers are taking a huge step back — all the way to the bottom of the ACC. 

UCLA: It is such a shame the Bruins successfully recruited one of the most gifted quarterback prospects in a long time onto their campus and surrounded him with such a bad roster that the program couldn’t rise above its typical irrelevance. Don’t you dare blame Josh Rosen for UCLA’s 2-2 start, which would be even worse if not for their quarterback putting on his Superman cape in the season opener against Texas A&M. Even in a 58-34 loss to Stanford, Rosen had to throw 60 times — 60! — completing 40 passes for 480 yards. Sure, Rosen throws an ill-advised interception or two pretty much every game, but if he doesn’t take some chances and do more than the typical quarterback, UCLA has no chance to beat a quality team. Can you imagine how fun it would be to watch Rosen on a really good football team with an offensive line to protect him, a running game to open things up and a defense that can get the ball back every now and then? Unfortunately, that fantasy may only make things worse for UCLA fans, who will forever remember the Rosen era as a missed opportunity.

TOO SHOCKED TO BE MISERABLE 

Oklahoma State: It wasn’t supposed to happen like this. If the Cowboys were going to go down in the Big 12 this year, wasn’t it supposed to be against Oklahoma? Maybe at Texas? But losing at home to TCU, 44-31, is a real gut punch after this team had rolled up big scores on everybody the first three weeks and looked like a real playoff contender. Maybe Mike Gundy’s team will get another shot, but they’ll have to be perfect the rest of the way.

Florida: Did Jim McElwain have a horseshoe surgically implanted somewhere in his body prior to this season? After looking awful against Michigan in the season opener, Florida has come back with insane, improbable finishes against Tennessee and Kentucky that have both gone their direction. The Gators have played more like 0-3 than 2-1, but here they are, right back in the mix to win the SEC East again. Florida now has three consecutive games at home, and if the Gators can sweep them and beat Georgia in Jacksonville, they’ll probably head back to Atlanta. And Florida fans will still moan and groan about the offense. 

Vanderbilt: Let’s sympathize with the Commodores a little bit, as the Alabama faux disrespect machine went into overdrive this week. The idea Vanderbilt trash talked or show disrespected Alabama is as insane as it is hilarious — “Alabama, you're next” was the offending quote from defensive lineman Nifae Lealao — but it was obviously twisted into an issue by Saban and the army of Alabama graduate assistants employed to produce propaganda and motivational material. But obviously it worked, as Alabama came out with a thirst for blood and delivered a 59-0 beating that might have broken a few psyches in Nashville. 

Boston College: A classic ACC sandwich game for Clemson (after Louisville, before Virginia Tech) turned into a heck of an opportunity for the Eagles, who were tied 7-7 going into the fourth quarter. Then the nation’s No. 2-ranked team rattled off four straight touchdowns while Boston College managed 13 plays, 24 yards and an interception. That’s how quickly it went from respectable to lopsided. Now on the wrong end of three straight blowouts, it’s likely only a matter of time before Steve Addazio (25-30 overall, 10-23 in the ACC) gets replaced. 

Temple: Now we know why it was so urgent for Matt Rhule to get out of Temple after last season rather than waiting another year to find a more ready-made situation than Baylor. It would seem the talent-deprived team he left behind in Philadelphia is going to struggle to win any more games this year, although in theory they’ll have a crack at ECU and UConn. Still, Temple had just 85 yards of offense in a 43-7 loss at South Florida and it was just as ugly as it sounds. First-year coach Geoff Collins has a major rebuild job on his hands.

FIVE TOTALLY REAL AND IRRATIONAL MESSAGE BOARD THREADS

“‘Clemsoning’ is dead the new term is ‘Jimboing’” - warchant.com (Florida State)

“It’s like we’re playing to get a number 1 draft pick” - bruinzone.com (UCLA)

“What is worse than a dumpster fire?” - hogville.net (Arkansas) 

“Playing not to lose is what losers do.” - catsillustrated.com (Kentucky)

“Never thought I would want Bobby Petrino…” - tigerboard.com (Missouri) 

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