Haudricourt: Brewers learned the hard way that you never have enough starting pitching

Quick, name the Brewers’ original starting rotation for the 2017 season, in order.

If you said Junior Guerra, Zach Davies, Wily Peralta, Chase Anderson and Jimmy Nelson, give yourself a big pat on the back. That’s how the Brewers lined up to open the season.

It didn’t stay that way for long, however. Guerra blew out a calf on opening day, breaking out of the batter’s box. It was an injury that would sideline him for six weeks, and Guerra never would be the same, eventually getting banished to the minors.

Because Matt Garza already was on disabled list with a groin strain, left-hander Tommy Milone took a few turns in the rotation. Bet you forgot about him, didn’t you?

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It wouldn’t take long for Peralta to pitch his way out of the rotation, leading to an ill-fated experiment as a relief pitcher. When he failed at that as well, he was given a ticket to Class AAA Colorado Springs.

With that quick review, we fast-forward to present day, when only Davies and Anderson remain from the original quintet. Due to a shortage of qualified, reliable starters, the Brewers have been in scramble mode in the final, heated days of the playoff race, forcing them to put an inordinate amount of pressure on their bullpen, expanded though it may be in September.

It didn’t help when Garza pitched his way out of the rotation by posting a 10.13 earned run average over a six-start span beginning in early August. In the final season of his four-year, $50 million contract, Garza held his own for most of the first half (3.98 ERA over 13 starts) and the Brewers’ decision-makers hoped he could make it to the finish line.

The real killer came on Sept. 8 at Wrigley Field when Nelson injured his pitching shoulder, diving back into first base after a hit, of all things. Nelson was lost for the remainder of the season, forcing manager Craig Counsell to go with a “bullpen game” every five days, relying on the bulk of his relief corps.

Just like that, the Brewers got caught without enough starting pitching, something they weren’t concerned about at season’s start. Peralta pitched so badly at Colorado Springs in his final three outings (nine earned runs in two innings), he wasn’t summoned as a September call-up. At this point, there’s no reason to expect he will ever make another start for the Brewers.

How far has Guerra fallen down the organizational ladder? Despite being desperate for another starting pitcher, the Brewers opted not to give him the ball. It didn’t instill confidence from Counsell and Co. when Guerra allowed home runs in each of his first two mop-up outings as a reliever.

Lefty Brent Suter, a swingman accustomed to moving back and forth from bullpen to rotation, has done an admirable job in filling the spot originally held by Garza. Without him, the starting pitching shortage would be crippling. 

But would the Brewers feel comfortable tabbing Suter as one of their five starters at the outset of the 2018 season? He is one of those finesse pitchers who often struggles when hitters see them the third time around, so that remains to be seen.

The Brewers now know that Nelson will not be ready for the start of the 2018 season after undergoing surgery to repair a torn labrum in his shoulder. General manager David Stearns said Nelson would miss a “chunk” of next season, which could mean anything from a few weeks to a few months.

Stearns was on the lookout for a quality starting pitcher before the trade deadline, showing interest in the likes of Jose Quintana and Sonny Gray, who were dealt to the Cubs and Yankees, respectively. He thought the asking price was too high in terms of top-rated prospects and opted not to mortgage the future.

Stearns did not have a crystal ball, so there was no way of knowing at the time that Nelson would be lost with a playoff berth on the line.

“Regardless of when that injury occurred, you’re not going to be able to replace a Jimmy Nelson and what he has meant to this team,” Stearns said. “Had that injury occurred in June or July, that would have affected how we viewed our rotation as a whole and it could have affected how aggressively we pursued other options. But we didn’t have that information.”

So, looking forward to the spring, that leaves the Brewers with three obvious candidates for the rotation — Davies, Anderson and rookie Brandon Woodruff, who has shown enough when thrust into the mix at crunch time to project him as a starter for 2018.

Stearns said earlier that the plan for left-hander Josh Hader was to return to starting after serving strictly as a reliever in his first stint with the Brewers. And, considering the aforementioned circumstances, it might be the best way to go.

But, after watching Hader dominate opponents (1.64 ERA in 33 games, 61 strikeouts in 44 innings) out of the bullpen in key junctures of meaningful games, the Brewers just might have the next Andrew Miller (Cleveland Indians pitcher) on their hands. And, without question, baseball has become a bullpen game. But would the Brewers have the luxury of keeping Hader in that role? 

Stearns, who once indicated moving Hader to the rotation in 2018 was almost a certainty, now says that is to be determined.

“I think that’s a question that will remain until the off-season,” Stearns said. “I know it’s a constant source of discussion (from the outside), but it hasn’t been a source of discussion because we don’t have the time to do that right now. We’re focusing on every day’s game right now.

“Ace relievers affect games in different ways than really good starting pitchers. Both have significant levels of value. We’ll evaluate that at some point. It all comes down to where we think Josh can have the most success.”

Looking at the system, there is no sure thing in terms of being ready to start in the majors at the outset of 2018. Aaron Wilkerson, who failed to cover three innings when given a start Wednesday in Pittsburgh, is 28 and spent most of 2017 at Class AA Biloxi but could force his way into the picture.

Corbin Burnes, the Brewers’ minor-league pitcher of the year, is a shooting star, dominating hitters at Class A Carolina and Biloxi (8-3, 1.67 ERA in 26 games). But he has yet to pitch at the Class AAA level, and it would be a bit aggressive at this point to project him in the opening rotation for next season.

A more likely scenario is that Stearns will acquire some experienced help this winter, perhaps more than one starter. At this stage of the rebuild, I wouldn’t expect him to open the coffers to pursue the likes of Jake Arrieta, Yu Darvish or CC Sabathia on the free agent market.

Stearns’ mantra is “to acquire, develop and retain young, controllable talent,” so it would be more likely that he’d trade some of his deep farm system for a younger pitcher who could see the rebuild through to the back end.

“We’re always going to look to add to our depth in every aspect of the team, whether it’s the bullpen or rotation,” Stearns said. “I expect we’re going to be active on multiple fronts. We’re going to evaluate what the external options are.”

One axiom of baseball will always hold true: You can never have enough pitching. That lesson has been driven home in recent weeks for the Brewers, making their playoff quest much more daunting.

“The best you can do is give yourself a chance with depth,” Stearns said. “I don’t know if we could have envisioned this sequence of events happening with our starting rotation. ...

“That depth has been tested to an extreme, to a point where we’re using our bullpen in unconventional ways to account for where we are for the starting rotation at this point.”