Market News

Soybeans, corn down, expecting non-threatening weather

Soybeans were modestly lower on fund and technical selling, essentially following through on Monday’s weak finish. Development and harvest are both slower than average, but warm, dry weather in most of the Midwest and Plains should speed those up. After a generally dry August, the USDA could lower its yield estimate next month. Losses were limited by solid export and domestic demand. No new sales were announced Tuesday morning, but U.S. bean prices are below Brazil and according to wire reports, demand from China should stay strong for a while. Soybean meal was down and bean oil was up on the unwinding of commercial spreads. Statistics Canada estimates that nation’s soybean crop at a record 8.321 million tons, with a big jump in harvested area cancelling out a year to year decline in average yield. Canola, at 19.708 million tons, would also be a new national high, also with increased acreage offsetting reduced yields.

Corn was modestly lower on fund and technical selling. Corn is also watching late development and early harvest conditions. Temperatures should stay above freezing and rainfall could be limited to parts of the northwestern Midwest. Corn is also looking at the potential for lower USDA yield projections in the next set of supply, demand, and production numbers out October 12th. Ethanol futures were lower. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly ethanol production and stocks numbers are out Wednesday. According to Allendale and France’s AgriMer, 79% of that nation’s corn crop is in good to excellent condition, compared to 54% a year ago. Wire reports say Chinese corn farmers could hold onto supplies, expecting higher prices. The latest corn production estimate for Statistics Canada is 14.313 million tons, which would be 0.5% more than in 2016.

The wheat complex was mixed, with Chicago mostly firm, Kansas City almost unchanged, and Minneapolis lower. The spring wheat harvest has officially wrapped up and winter wheat planting is a little bit slower than normal. Statistics Canada’s new production guess is down 14.5% on the year at 27.130 million tons, but above the USDA’s most recent estimate of 26.5 million tons. Egypt is tendering for an unknown amount of milling wheat from Russia and Japan is in the market for 127,427 tons of food wheat from the U.S., Australia, and Canada.