New York City Mayor, Bill de Blasio, won the Democratic Primary for his Re-Election last Week with an overwhelming 74% of the Vote. Yet, only 49% of New Yorkers have a favorable view of the Mayor. Most of them stayed home for the Primary: A paltry 14% of Registered Democrats went to the Polls, the Second Lowest in the Party's last Five Mayoral Primaries. Something is clearly wrong with Politics in New York. Talked with Voters and over and over again they say Term Limits have Ruined Democracy in the City.
Political Scientists say the System encourages City Politicians to be excessively Cautious because it Guarantees that if they wait, they will not have to face an Incumbent when they seek Higher Office, be it the City Council, Comptroller, Public Advocate, or Mayor.
This year, for example, Comptroller Scott Stringer spent months figuring out if Challenging the Mayor was a gamble worth taking. He decided it was not. When he Ran for a Second Term as comptroller, no one Campaigned against him. The Mayor and Public Advocate Letitia James faced only Token Opposition. And not a Single Incumbent Lost in the Primary.
Before we get too carried away about Term Limits, keep in mind that Incumbents always had an advantage unless Voters had a reason to Oust them. Mayor Ed Koch faced very Marginal Competition in his 1981 and 1985 Re-Election Campaigns, as did Mayor Rudy Giuliani in 1997 and Mayor Michael Bloomberg in 2005. Only when Koch tried to Win a Fourth Term after Four Years of Scandal did he attract formidable Opponents. It was simply Voters' Anger over the Temporary Suspension of Term Limits that made Comptroller Bill Thompson a Strong Candidate in 2009.
Money also matters, but it always has. Today Candidates need to gather Small Contributions from Residents to Qualify for the Big Matching Dollars available from the City's Public Finance System. This is much easier for Incumbents. But Officeholders also had the Advantage in the Past because they spent Years Courting the Big Donors, Real Estate Interests, and Municipal Unions.
So Term Limits have made City Elections less Competitive, but not by much. Because New Yorkers say they like Term Limits, the only hope is that the City will be able to get off the Treadmill of everyone being Term-Limited at the Same Time.
Maybe we will be lucky and the Next Comptroller will Retire after One Term. Or Borough Presidents will Leave Office for the Private Sector. Or maybe a Mayor will Resign to take a Job in Washington.
Hope Springs Eternal.
NYC Wins When Everyone Can Vote! Michael H. Drucker
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