Vols' margin for error is slight if they hope to win SEC East
John Adams
If you think you have Tennessee’s football season figured out, don’t look back. The 2016 season reminds us of the folly in trying to predict how an unpredictable sport might unfold.
Unfortunately, I already have made the mistake of reviewing my previous preseason work. What was I thinking?
I had the Vols going 11-1 last season and finishing fifth in the country, tantalizing close to the College Football Playoff. Oops.
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The prediction actually didn’t look bad five games into the season when the Vols were 5-0 with victories over Virginia Tech, Florida and Georgia. But it was best forgotten after the season skidded off course, resulting in an 8-4 regular season, marred by upset losses to both South Carolina and Vanderbilt.
It’s unlikely coach Butch Jones’ fifth season at UT will reach the extremes of the last regular season with its five-game climb and a 3-4 descent. Don’t rule out improbable outcomes, though.
This UT depth chart doesn’t have as much proven talent as its last one. That’s obvious from the preseason All-SEC teams. But this depth chart is a huge upgrade over Jones’ first one in 2013.
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Tennessee had more than enough talent to win the division the past two seasons. And it’s still capable of beating Florida and Georgia, the most popular picks to win the East, but its margin for error is so slight that it could lose to any team in a division that should be stronger overall.
In a more balanced division, the severity and timing of injuries will play a greater role.
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Tennessee announced in the preseason that starting offensive lineman Chance Hall would be out for the season with a knee injury. Florida suffered an even more significant loss when its No. 1 defensive back, Marcell Harris, went down with a torn Achilles tendon. Kentucky lost senior offensive tackle Cole Mosier to a torn ACL, and wide receiver Dorian Baker might miss the entire season with a dislocated ankle.
Before Hall’s loss, Tennessee’s offensive line was regarded as a team strength. It still might be, thanks to the immediate impact of freshman offensive guard Trey Smith.
Smith isn’t the only offensive player with high expectations. Just the youngest.
Whether Quinten Dormady or Jarrett Guarantano starts at quarterback, there’s considerable evidence that neither is lacking in talent. Both have displayed strong arms, and I rewatched Guarantano’s high school highlight video just to remind myself what a running threat he is.
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With proven players at running back (John Kelly) and wide receiver (Jauan Jennings), plus promising young players as well, the offense should be productive again.
You can’t be as sure about the defense, not after last season when it ranked 95th nationally. Moreover, every opponent in the division should be better offensively.
My best guess: the defensive line will be healthier and improved under new assistant coach Brady Hoke. You shouldn’t be as confident about the linebackers and cornerbacks.
Prediction: A third consecutive 8-4 season.
It’s not out of the question that Tennessee could improve to 9-3. The East might be better, but it’s still down by longtime standards or when compared to the West.
Reaching 9-3 would take more close wins (UT is 8-11 in games decided by eight points or fewer under Jones). That's probably too much to ask against a conference schedule that includes Alabama and LSU from the West.
Reach John Adams at john.adams@knoxnews.com or 865-342-6284 and on Twitter @johnadamskns.
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