Aaron Judge's strikeout streak is meaningless
Aaron Judge is a giant man who hits giant home runs in a giant city and had a giant first half of the 2017 MLB season. That all leads to giant expectations.
And Judge keeps striking out.
The New York Yankees right fielder has struck out in 37 consecutive games, an MLB record breaking Adam Dunn's (multi-season) streak of 36. Everyone now wants to know what to do about it. Strikeouts are not good for hitters, and the Yankees are in the middle of an important playoff race. Judge needs to put the bat on the ball. That much cannot be argued.
Those issues are crystalized when you look at Judge's numbers through the streak. Since July 8, when he struck out twice in a 5-3 victory against the Milwaukee Brewers, Judge has a .176 batting average, a .335 on-base percentage and a .351 slugging percentage. He has 63 strikeouts compared to 48 times on base. His power has declined, and his season batting average has dropped from .330 to .282 in a month and a half.
But the strikeouts aren't the issue. Here are three reasons why:
1. Judge was striking out plenty before.
Judge strikes out on June 18. (Andrew Villa/USA TODAY Sports)
In his first 82 games, Judge struck out 104 times in 357 plate appearances. That's a rate of 29.1% and put him on pace to finish with 206 strikeouts.
Judge's 63 strikeouts over these 37 games have come on 164 plate appearances. That's a rate of 38.4%. Project it over a full season, and that's 276 strikeouts - an MLB record but not that much more extreme than his previous rate.
In other words, Judge strikes out. That's who he is and what he does. But high strikeout rates, even strikeout streaks, aren't all bad. Often the strikeout is the necessary side effect of a high walk rate or great power, and Judge has both. Consider that he walked in 19.4% of his plate appearances in the 37 games preceding the streak and 18.9% during the streak.
But the best example of why strikeout streaks don't mean bad hitting is Dunn. The then-Chicago White Sox slugger opened 2012 by striking out in 32 consecutive games. But he had a .384 OBP and .586 SLG during that stretch, elite numbers for a slugger always known to walk and strikeout a lot.
So if the strikeouts aren't the root, why are Judge's numbers so bad?
2. Judge was getting lucky, now he's getting unlucky.
Judge swings and misses on July 19. (Jeffrey Becker/USA TODAY Sports)
Batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is expected to hover around .300 for hitters (or slightly higher for power hitters), according to FanGraphs. Strikeouts and walks don't matter to BABIP, so there's no statistical reason that a player in a strikeout streak would see his BABIP greatly affected.
Yet Judge has, in an extreme way. In his first 82 games, Judge's BABIP was .419. During this skid, his BABIP is all the way down to .258.
Baseball players tend to regress to the norm. But Judge's splits are so extreme that it's worth considering what might be causing this. Brooks Baseball tracks the pitches a hitter sees, and Judge definitely is seeing fewer off-speed pitches and more fastballs over the past two months. Yet more strikingly, here's a chart of what he's swinging at and missing:
Judge is 6-foot-7 with a huge swing, and pitchers clearly needed some time to learn the holes in that swing. Yankees hitting coach Alan Cockrell confirmed to NJ.com that Judge isn't the one who has changed, for the most part:
"Mechanically, he's doing the same things," Cockrell said. "He's being pitched a little differently, a little tougher. Not getting as much to hit."
Judge was used to seeing the ball fly seemingly every time he made contact, which obviously hasn't been the case. Baseball will always have a luck component.
3. He's still figuring out who he is.
Judge argues a call on July 15. (Winslow Townson/USA TODAY Sports)
Judge is a 25-year-old rookie. Expectations were low entering the year because Judge was so rough last year in a month-long call-up. (Actually, his numbers (.179/.263/.345) were strikingly similar to how he's hit during this skid.)
But even amid this ugly piece of history, the Yankees have succeeded: They're 21-16, compared to 45-41 before it. Catcher Gary Sanchez and shortstop Didi Gregorius are making up for Judge, whom many are pushing manager Joe Girardi to slide down from the No. 3 spot in the order.
This streak will end, and Judge will find any confidence he's lacking because of it. He needed luck to be a .330 hitter, but seeing him up around .270 with great power and a high OBP seems both possible and valuable for a young Yankees team moving forward.
He needs to listen to his hitting coach:
"I think whenever you have the kind of success that he had in the first half, they're going to change their sequence a little bit and they're going to try to pitch you a little differently," Cockrell said.
"That's the cat and mouse game that goes on as long as you're in this game. That's going to be an adjustment. Alex (Rodriguez) used to talk about it all the time. They make an adjustment, you make an adjustment. He's just dealing with that a little bit. He's a determined, hard-working kid."
Cockrell added, "He'll get through it though. He's mentally as tough as any young kid i've been around in 34 years. He'll get through it."
And he needs to not focus on this strikeout streak. Everything else matters more.