MU Law School Poll: Scott Walker job approval reaches 48% as Donald Trump holds at 41%

When it comes to Gov. Scott Walker, Wisconsin voters are now evenly split.

Forty-eight percent of registered Wisconsin voters approve of Walker's performance while 48% disapprove, according to Wednesday's Marquette University Law School Poll.

It's the first time since October 2014 that Walker's approval hasn't been under water with voters. And it marks Walker's steady recovery since bottoming out with 36% approval in a September 2015 poll after his short-lived presidential campaign.

Walker has all but formally announced he is running for a third term next year.

"He's in better shape than he was," poll director Charles Franklin said. "He's not up to a net-positive approval rating, so he still has a ways to go."

President Donald Trump's job approval rating was 41%, while 51% disapproved of his performance.

Eighty-five percent of Republicans approved of the job Trump is doing, while only 3% of Democrats approved and 95% disapproved.

The poll found Trump was more popular in the northern half of Wisconsin than the southern half, a pattern reflected in last fall's election returns. 

Trump was most popular in the sprawling Green Bay TV market, which includes Appleton, where 51% approved of his performance and 40% disapproved. In the rest of northern and western Wisconsin, Trump had 47% approval and 43% disapproval.

In the city of Milwaukee, only 13% approved of Trump while 80% disapproved of his performance. In the rest of the 10-county Milwaukee TV market (excluding the city of Milwaukee), Trump had 45% approval and 46% disapproval.

In the 11-county Madison media market, 30% approved of Trump and 65% disapproved. 

Trump's overall approval rating was the same as it was in March, but the share of voters who disapproved of him rose from 47% to 51%. 

Since then, Trump has made two Wisconsin appearances, touting manufacturing during a stop in Kenosha in April and discussing health care and apprenticeships in the Milwaukee area earlier this month.

Around half of those surveyed say that Trump is keeping his promises. When asked who blocks Trump's initiatives, 43% said Democrats, 39% said Republican divisions and 5% volunteered that Trump bears responsibility (even though that was not one of the answers offered in the poll). 

As was true in March, a majority of registered voters favored keeping President Barack Obama's signature health care law, the Affordable Care Act. 

In March, more than half of voters surveyed — 60% — said they either wanted to keep the law as it is or keep and improve it. That number was exactly the same in the new poll. By contrast, 34% said they wanted to either repeal and replace the law or simply repeal it. That was very similar to the 36% who said so in March. 

Just 20% of those polled said they believed the Republican replacement plan for health care would increase the number of people insured, while 49% said it would decrease the number of people covered by health insurance. Twenty-three percent said the number of people covered would remain the same.

Forty-seven percent said costs would go up under the GOP plan, while 29% said costs would decrease and 17% said costs would remain the same.

The poll did not ask directly about the Senate GOP health care plan that was set aside this week by Republican leaders, but a batch of new national surveys Wednesday showed very low support for the measure, including 12% approval in a survey by USA TODAY/Suffolk University and 16% in one by Quinnipiac University. 

On Tuesday, facing defections from both moderates and conservatives, U.S. Senate Republicans delayed their seven-year quest to overturn Obamacare and pass a sweeping health care bill. The Senate won't consider a bill until after the Fourth of July recess.

Republican U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson was at 39% favorable and 32% unfavorable. Democratic U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin was at 38% favorable and 38% unfavorable.

House Speaker Paul Ryan, a Janesville Republican, was viewed favorably by 44% and unfavorably by 44%. Those are Ryan's worst numbers since the fall of 2012 when he was on the GOP presidential ticket. For most of the past few years, he had been the most popular Republican politician in Wisconsin, according to Marquette's polling.

That trend also reflects surveys that have shown his national numbers declining as the GOP agenda has been stalled on major items and its health care proposals have proven highly unpopular.  Ryan's home-state slippage has come primarily among independents and Democrats, not within his own party.  

Thirty-nine percent approved of Trump's firing of former FBI Director James Comey, while 49% disapproved.

Fifty-one percent said they had confidence in special counsel Robert Mueller, who is conducting a probe of potential collusion between the Trump campaign and Russian officials.

Thirty-four percent approved of President Trump's decision to withdraw from the Paris climate accord, while 54% disapproved.

Voters were asked how they would like to spend money in the Wisconsin budget.

The top priority for more state spending was on K-12 schools, with 37% support, and 25% saying health and 23% roads.

Local aid (5%), prisons (4%) and the University of Wisconsin System (3%) brought up the rear in top priority for more state spending.

Fifty-three percent said the state is headed in the right direction, while 47% said it is on the wrong track. A third of voters correctly assessed that the state's unemployment rate was under 4%.

Asked if they trusted the federal government to do the right thing, 3% said always, 19% said most of the time and 66% said only some of the time, while 10% said never.

Asked if they trusted the state government to do the right thing, 6% said always, 41% said most of the time, 48% said only some of the time, while 4% said never.

Local government fared best in the question, with 14% saying they always trusted local government to do the right thing. Fifty percent said most of the time, 30% said only some of the time and 4% said never.

Eighty-four percent of those surveyed use the internet, while 16% do not. The suburban areas have near universal internet usage at 90%, while there is 80% usage in urban areas and 82% in rural areas.

Just 75% of those with incomes under $40,000 use the internet. There's 83% internet usage by those with incomes ranging from $40,000 to $75,000, and 95% usage by those with incomes over $75,000.

The survey of 800 registered voters was conducted Thursday through Sunday, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

Democrats and Republicans each made up 45% of the sample, with 8% identifying as independents. Over the longer term, Republicans have made up 43% and Democrats 48% of the Marquette sample.