Market News

Corn, wheat higher, watching weather

Soybeans were narrowly mixed with fractional changes on either side of steady. Weekly export numbers were bullish and demand’s expected to stay strong. Brazil’s harvest is about to wrap up and Argentina’s is gaining steam thanks to a drier weather pattern. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says Argentina’s harvest is 32.3% complete. Also, the trade’s expecting at least some increase in U.S. acreage because of slow corn planting. Soybean meal was higher and bean oil was lower, adjusting product spreads. The first notice day for May CBOT grain and oilseed contracts is Friday. The International Grains Council projects 2017/18 world soybean production at 348 million tons, up 3 million from both the prior estimate and the expected 2016/17 total.

Corn was modestly higher on commercial and technical buying. Weekly export numbers for corn were bullish and forecasts have more planting delays in parts of the Midwest. Those delays are expected to continue into early May in parts of the region and will likely lead to at least some increase in bean acreage. Corn’s also watching South American, especially development conditions for Brazil’s second crop and Argentina’s harvest, which is 25.8% complete. The USDA’s attaché in Argentina has 2017/18 production at 39.0 million tons with record exports of 28 million tons. Ethanol futures were lower. According the International Grains Council, global 2017/18 corn production could be 1.026 billion tons, up 2 million from the end of March estimate, but down 33 million from the 2016/17 total.

The wheat complex was higher on short covering and technical buying. Spring planting remains slow and parts of the winter wheat region are expected to receive heavy rainfall. Weekly export numbers and the overall fundamentals are bearish, limiting any real long term upside. According the USDA’s attaché in Argentina, 2017/18 wheat exports are expected to be up slightly on the year at 10.5 million tons with lower yields cancelling out increased planted area. Israel bought 30,000 tons of optional origin feed wheat. The International Grains Council sees 2017/18 world wheat production at 736 million tons, compared to the last guess of 735 million and the 2016/17 total of 753 million tons.