At least global warming gets Americans off couch

WASHINGTON - Global warming’s milder winters will likely nudge Americans off the couch more in the future, a rare, small benefit of climate change, a new study finds.

With less chilly winters, Americans will be more likely to get outdoors, increasing their physical activity by as much as 2.5% by the end of the century, according to a new study in Monday’s edition of the journal Nature Human Behaviour. North Dakota, Minnesota and Maine are likely to see the most dramatic increases, usually the result of more walking.

But that good global warming side effect is not likely to extend to the deep south and especially the desert southwest because hotter summer days may keep people inside. Arizona, southern Nevada and southeastern California are likely to see activity drop off the most by the year 2099, the study found.

“It’s a small little tiny silver lining amid a series of very bad, very unfortunate events that are likely to occur,” said study lead author Nick Obradovich, who studies the social effects of climate change at both Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government and MIT. Global warming “almost certainly will be very costly on net for humanity.”

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Any overall benefit for Americans as a whole will probably be far outweighed by many other ways that climate change hurts health, said both Obradovich and outside health experts.

But the affect varies by month and location. Nearly all the country is likely to be less physically active in July, August and September by the end of the century, but a similar majority would also likely exercise more in November, December, January, February, March and even April in the year 2099, the study finds.

Jonathan Patz, director of the Global Health Institute at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, faulted the study for not taking into account people who have jobs that require lots of physical activity nor the growing popularity of winter sports.