Wisconsin Democrats have chance at Gov. Scott Walker but no candidate

MADISON - After three losses to Scott Walker, Wisconsin Democrats think they finally have a chance at the Republican governor in 2018.

There's just one catch: They don't have a candidate. Democrats still have time to find a leader who can raise money, hire staff, craft policies and a message to voters, but they don't deny the clock is ticking.

"If we get to late summer and early fall and lack one or more than one credible candidate, it'll be time to be worried," said Joe Zepecki, a Democratic strategist who worked on businesswoman Mary Burke's failed bid against Walker in 2014.

At the moment, the Democrats have no one on the field.

Former state Sen. Tim Cullen of Janesville registered a campaign committee for governor this month, but even he isn't in for sure. The former Senate majority leader looked at a run in the 2012 recall election but decided against it then, noting that unions had greeted his overtures with "respectful indifference."

"There is a big issue in the room and the issue is money," he said in an interview.

At this point in 2009, then-Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker had been basically running against then-Democratic Gov. Jim Doyle for more than two years. When Doyle signed the state budget that year and then decided not to run for re-election, Walker had an advantage against the other candidates that he never relinquished.

SPECIAL REPORT: Scott Walker's path to power

Walker will have to make his own decision on whether to run for a third term after he and GOP lawmakers pass their own budget bill this summer.

Here are some of the factors that the GOP governor will consider:

On the plus side for an incumbent, the state's unemployment rate in February stood at 3.7% — a level that is at or very near full employment. Walker has also proposed a budget that increases funding for schools and cuts taxes — two top priorities for most voters.

At the same time, Friday's failure of President Donald Trump and House Republicans to pass an Obamacare repeal underlines the difficulties that GOP politicians up and down the ballot could face next year if the party doesn't deliver on its campaign promises.

The governor may be insulated from problems in Washington, D.C. He's also proved to be a strong campaigner and fundraiser with a statewide machine that could well outperform Republicans nationally.

But there are some issues at home for Democrats to exploit. Walker, for instance, hasn't convinced even some Republican lawmakers that he's right to reject new money for the state's road fund and instead delay projects.

The latest Marquette University Law School poll put Walker at a 45% approval rating, an uptick that puts the governor on higher ground but not necessarily out of danger if a Democratic wave were to crest in 2018.

Campaign aide Joe Fadness dismissed that, saying any re-election campaign "would be won on the merits of Governor Walker's impressive record of results."

"With the lowest unemployment rate since 2000, more people working than ever before, and taxpayers back in charge, Wisconsin families know Governor Walker’s reforms stand in stark contrast to Democrats who have nothing to offer but failed and distorted political attacks," Fadness said.

In an interview, Cullen gave a preview of the issues that Democrats would like to run on against Walker. If the former health care executive runs, Cullen said, he would focus on uniting the state, fixing roads, protecting the environment, and improving education.

"I will not be a governor at all like Governor Walker," he said. "I will do whatever I can to try to unite this state."

But Republicans will also respond that it was polarizing when Cullen and 13 other Democratic state senators left Wisconsin in 2011 to try to stop Walker's limits on collective bargaining known as Act 10.

Among the other possible Democratic candidates are:

• Mark Bakken, the founder of health care venture fund HealthX Ventures. A co-founder and CEO of Nordic Consulting Partners, Bakken would bring substantial personal money to a run but is untested and unvetted as a political candidate. 
• Rep. Dana Wachs (D-Eau Claire), a trial attorney, has seriously eyed a bid as well but is unlikely to run if Bakken decides to do so, sources familiar with his thinking said. 
• Jefferson County District Attorney Susan Happ, who made an unsuccessful bid for attorney general in 2014. She lost 52% to 46% to Republican Brad Schimel.
• Andy Gronik, the founder and president of GroBiz, a company that advises businesses, and Stage W, a nonprofit group aimed at getting past political divisiveness. Gronik is also untested as a candidate.
• State Sen. Kathleen Vinehout (D-Alma), who ran in the Democratic primary for governor in the 2012 recall against Walker. She came in third place, with 4% of the vote and has shown little sign that she could raise the kind of money needed for a governor's race. 
• Former Democratic Party chairman Matt Flynn, a Milwaukee attorney who has run unsuccessfully for Congress.
• Dane County Executive and former Assemblyman Joe Parisi has been mentioned as a possible candidate. His strength in liberal Madison could be an advantage in a primary though it could also be a challenge in a general election. Parisi is running unopposed for re-election in April and has told The Capital Times he'll address a run for governor after that. 
• Rep. Gordon Hintz (D-Oshkosh), who sits on the Legislature's Joint Finance Committee. An effective communicator, Hintz would have to overcome past missteps such as being ticketed in 2011 as part of an investigation into prostitution at an Appleton massage parlor.
• Bob Harlow, a 25-year-old Stanford University graduate who has lost a Democratic primary bid for Congress in California. Harlow, the only Democrat who's committed to a run so far, is the grandson of famous UW-Madison psychologist Harry Harlow.

Some of the most attractive Democratic candidates, including Madison biotech executive Kevin Conroy, U.S. Rep. Ron Kind of La Crosse, Kenosha County Executive Jim Kreuser and state Senate Minority Leader Jennifer Shilling of La Crosse, have all said they're not running.

But Zepecki, the Democratic strategist who worked on the campaign Burke launched in October 2013, said that as long as a Democrat can fund his or her race, there's still no rush to declare.

"One thing I've never heard since 2014 is that if only Mary Burke had been in the race longer, we would have won," Zepecki said.