Marquette University Law School poll shows Trump's approval rating at 41% in Wisconsin

Patrick Marley and Bill Glauber, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

President Donald Trump may have won a close contest in Wisconsin last fall, but only 41% of registered voters here approve of the way he's handling his job, according to Wednesday's Marquette University Law School Poll.

"No honeymoon at all," said poll director Charles Franklin.

More than two months into Trump's presidency, 47% disapprove of his performance, the poll showed.

Marquette's poll, its first since the 2016 election, provided a snapshot of voter attitudes as Congress grapples with health care and the Legislature in Madison wrangles with a biennial budget.

While House Speaker Paul Ryan works to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, the poll showed most voters in Wisconsin would rather keep and improve former President Barack Obama's signature health care law.

More than half — 54% — would like to retain and improve the Affordable Care Act, and another 6% would like to keep it as is, according to the poll.

Just 28% supported a move to repeal and replace the law, as Ryan is attempting. Eight percent favored simply repealing the law.

The survey of 800 registered Wisconsin voters exposed the political pitfalls for Ryan, Trump and other Republicans as they try to deliver on the promises they have made over the last six years. A vote on Ryan's plan in the House could come as early as Thursday.

Many voters believe Ryan's plan will reduce coverage and raise health care costs, the poll showed.

Specifically, 18% believed coverage would increase under Ryan's plan, 49% believed it would decrease and 25% believed it would stay about the same. On the cost of health care, 45% believed it would go up under Ryan's plan, 28% believed it would go down and 21% believed it would stay about the same.

As one would expect, there were stark party differences, with 70% of Republicans wanting some form of repeal or replacement, while 89% of Democrats wanted to keep the law in one form or another.

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The poll also showed the importance of branding when it comes to health care.

Voters perceived the health care law differently based on what name was used when asked about it. When it was called the Affordable Care Act, 51% viewed it favorably. When it was called Obamacare, just 40% viewed it positively.

Ryan, from Janesville, remains popular, viewed favorably by 45%, unfavorably by 38%.

Republican U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson, re-elected in 2016, was viewed favorably by 39% and unfavorably by 34%. Democratic U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin, who faces re-election in 2018, was viewed favorably by 40% and unfavorably by 35%.

The poll showed Gov. Scott Walker had a 45% approval rating — an uptick from the 42% approval rating he had in October. Walker is expected to run for re-election next year.

"This is the best he has done in a couple of years," Franklin said.

Some of Walker's top priorities in the state budget he has proposed proved popular. Nearly 80% like his idea of requiring people to be working or be seeking work to qualify for public benefits.

A similar number wanted to put more money toward schools, as Walker has proposed.

Forty-eight percent of voters like Walker's plan to cut in-state tuition at University of Wisconsin schools by 5%. But almost as many — 45% — would rather have the reduction go to low- and moderate-income students.

Poll respondents were split on how to fix Wisconsin's roads. A little more than a third — 35% — wanted to raise taxes and fees; 3% wanted to rely on borrowing; 9% wanted to cut construction projects; and 44% wanted to take money from other state programs. The poll did not ask people what specific programs they would be willing to cut to put more money toward roads.

With the Legislature at the beginning of the budget process, the poll found 29% believed the budget is in better shape than a few years ago, 28% said about the same and 33% said it is worse.

Republicans who control the Legislature had 38% job approval and 49% disapproval. For minority Democrats, the figures were 36% approval and 49% disapproval.