Haudricourt: Jonathan Villar has earned keeper status in Brewers rebuild
TEMPE, Ariz. - As I have written many times since the Milwaukee Brewers embarked on the total overhaul of their team during the 2015 season, identifying “keepers” is a vital part of the process moving forward.
It was easy to surmise that Jonathan Villar was identified as a keeper during his banner 2016 campaign. He began the season as the starting shortstop with the knowledge that he would cede it to top prospect Orlando Arcia at some point, which he did at the outset of August.
Villar was shifted to third base, where he clearly was uncomfortable (12 errors in 42 games). It was no surprise in December when the Brewers traded for Boston third baseman Travis Shaw and announced Villar would move to second base, pushing aside incumbent Scooter Gennett.
His base-running misadventures aside, Villar was a force atop the batting order, hitting .285 (he ran out of gas a bit in the final weeks) with 38 doubles, 19 home runs, 63 RBI, .369 on-base percentage and 62 stolen bases, most in the major leagues.
By the end of the season, it was obvious that Villar, 25, was firmly in the keeper category as the rebuild headed toward 2017. Thus, it made perfect sense a few days ago when Jon Heyman of FanRagSports.com reported the Brewers had “floated” an extension of about $20 million to Villar, who “passed for now.”
Neither side would talk about the negotiations but I have no doubt an extension was broached, most likely for three years beginning in 2018, which would buy out all three of Villar’s arbitration years. He made $512,900 last season, just above the major-league minimum of $507,500.
BY POSITION SERIES: SP | C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | LF | RF | RP | Bench
RELATED: Brewers spring training dates, facts
The minimum salary in 2017 is $535,000, and Villar again will not make much above that in the final season of club control. If he did turn down $20 million over the following three years as reported, it shows the confidence Villar has that he will have another big season and increase his value.
You never know how these extensions will work out for pre-arbitration players. After he was National League rookie of the year in 2007, Ryan Braun signed an eight-year, $45 million extension that proved club-friendly when he became a perennial all-star. Early in his MVP season in 2011, he hit the jackpot with a five-year, $105 million extension.
POLL
Jonathan Lucroy signed a five-year, $11 million extension after his first full season in the majors in 2011 and rued doing so when he quickly became an all-star catcher. Lucroy is playing this season for Texas under the $5.25 million club option included in that deal, and he’ll likely never recoup the money he would have made had he gone year to year.
Then, there’s Jean Segura. After he earned NL all-star status in his first full season at shortstop with the Brewers in 2013, he was offered a seven-year, $40 million extension. Because Atlanta had just given shortstop Andrelton Simmons a seven-year, $58 million deal, Segura thought he was being low-balled and rejected the offer.
Whether Segura ever makes $40 million in the majors remains to be seen. He slumped badly in 2014, when he made $534,000, and drew the same salary the next season, with similar production. The Brewers traded him to Arizona before the 2016 season, when his pay jumped to $2.6 million in his first year of arbitration.
Though Segura bounced back in a big way at the plate (NL-high 203 hits, .319 batting average, .867 OPS) last season, the Diamondbacks traded him to Seattle. He will make $6.2 million this year in his second year of arbitration, giving him career earnings of about $10.3 million, still nearly $30 million shy of the extension he turned down with the Brewers.
Villar has yet to sign a contract for 2017 (he and Jimmy Nelson are the lone holdouts), so an extension is still possible, either this year or afterward. The point is that the Brewers do not view him merely as a placeholder as they forge a path toward playoff competitiveness.
It remains to be seen who else steps forward as a keeper. If Arcia, 22, puts his tepid two-month debut behind him and plays up to his potential throughout the 2017 season, perhaps the Brewers will move on him as they did with Braun and Segura at the same stage.
Travis Shaw, 26, might have the same opportunity at third base, depending on whether prospect Lucas Erceg makes another strong upward move in 2017.
The interesting decisions could come in the outfield, where the system is overflowing with highly regarded prospects. Centerfielder Keon Broxton and rightfielder Domingo Santana have shown flashes of impressive play but are far from being established in the majors.
Braun will have three years and $57 million remaining on his contract after this season. He achieves “10 and 5” status (at least 10 years in the majors and at least five with his current team) in late May, giving him complete veto power over trades.
In a rebuild of this scale, the decisions never stop coming.