Mike Strange: Tennessee needs to win four of five
So the big one got away. What's left in the pond for Tennessee?
Like a whole bunch of men's basketball teams, the Vols have serious work to do to stay in the March Madness conversation. It's time to cram for exams.
A win at Kentucky would have been almost a clincher for an NCAA tournament bid, but that prize was off the table by halftime Tuesday night at Rupp Arena. Kentucky exacted its revenge for a January loss in Knoxville with an 83-58 thumping that coach Rick Barnes called UT's worst game of the season.
He was right. The Vols have had some ugly stretches within games but this was close to a complete stinker, the first all season.
Mike Strange: No sweep for Vols against Kentucky
That's three losses in the past four games. Snap and clear. Tennessee (14-12, 6-7 SEC) has five games left in the regular season. Only one – at South Carolina – offers a major boost to UT's strength of schedule. The only mission, then, is to pile up wins.
Missouri at home Saturday: If there is a lock in SEC play, this is it. Mizzou has won only two SEC games, both at home.
Then again, the Tigers won only three SEC games last year and one was against Tennessee. Mizzou brings an RPI hit at 245, so a loss would be unthinkable.
Vanderbilt at home Feb. 22: Revenge will be wearing black and gold since the Vols have already won in Nashville. The Commodores (RPI 64) are 5-7 in the SEC, but four of those wins were on the road, including a jaw-dropping one at Florida.
Other pucker factors include Vandy's ability to go crazy from 3-point range and the fact that the Commodores have won their past two games in Thompson-Boling. The Vols must bring at least their B-plus game to this one.
At South Carolina Feb. 25: Beating South Carolina (RPI 21) would be huge. But also unlikely. The Gamecocks suffocated UT 70-60 in Knoxville. The Vols shot 32.7 percent overall and 1-of-11 from 3-point range. They were even more overmatched in a trip to the Colonial Life Arena last year. The 26-point loss is the worst of the Barnes era.
On the glass-half-full side, Clemson, Alabama (four overtimes) and Arkansas have won in Columbia this season, so it's doable. Tennessee should watch a replay of the Lady Vols' upset win at South Carolina on Jan. 30 for inspiration.
At LSU March 1: These Tigers (RPI 151) have accomplished even less than Missouri's. LSU is 1-12 in league play and wondering who will be the new coach next season.
Still, it is a road game and LSU can score. Unless Tennessee lays an egg, this should be a sixth consecutive win in Baton Rouge.
Alabama at home March 4: This shapes us as meaningful regular-season finale, something we didn't expect on opening night. If the Vols go 3-1 in the above stretch, an 18th win, and a quality one at that, would be a nice Senior Day addition to the resume.
However, the Crimson Tide (RPI 74) is always a tough out for the Vols. Alabama has won six of the past eight meetings and three of the past four in Knoxville. This year's edition notched its fifth SEC road win at Missouri on Wednesday night.
In any case, there will still be work to do in the SEC tournament in Nashville. Before that, conceding a likely loss at South Carolina, Tennessee needs to take care of business in the other four games.
There's no compelling reason UT should lose any of the four but it would be helpful to recalibrate the the 3-point shooting and to get Robert Hubbs III cranked up again. The freshmen might get a second wind or they might hit a wall.
Judging from the past couple of weeks, do you trust the Vols to win four out of five? I still need convincing.
Mike Strange may be reached at mike.strange@knoxnews.com. Follow him on Twitter: @Strangemike44.