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UNL climatologist: Keep an eye on the Southeast drought

Two big questions on the minds of agricultural weather experts heading into 2017 are, will the drought in the southeastern U.S. persist, and could it expand northward into the Eastern Corn Belt

University of Nebraska-Lincoln (UNL) agricultural climatologist Al Dutcher says it all depends on how long the current La Nina weather pattern stays in place.

“La Nina statistics say that a substantial portion of this (Southeast) region has a drier tendency through the entire winter period while the La Nina event is going on. So it’s not an area that, potentially, looks like it’s going to recuperate from this drought before next spring,” Dutcher says, “and that’s probably going to be the focus—whether that area expands rapidly as we go into the warmer part of the year, and whether or not it expands up into the Eastern Corn Belt.”

If La Nina continues, Dutcher says, the Eastern Corn Belt could see a wet spring followed by a dry summer.

“They’ll probably have these wet conditions early, giving a false sense of hope—and actually put them into some planting delay issues—then to follow it up with precipitation shutting off, as that high pressure system strengthens over the Southeast and starts to expand towards the north.

“Whether or not it happens remains to be seen, but it’s the one thing that I point to right now that is the most at risk going into the next growing season.”

A persistent La Nina could also bring drier-than-normal conditions to the Western Corn Belt, but Dutcher says soil moisture supplies should be enough to ensure a good start to the growing season.

Dutcher spoke with Brownfield at a UNL agricultural outlook meeting in Lincoln

AUDIO: Al Dutcher