Blind study: Comparing four College Football Playoff contenders
Alabama is in the College Football Playoff. Ohio State is in as well, based on comments made on Tuesday night by selection committee chairman Kirby Hocutt. Clemson is in with a win against Virginia Tech in the ACC championship.
And then things get interesting. While Washington currently sits at No. 4, maintaining that position demands a win against Colorado to take the Pac-12 title. If the Huskies lose – or perhaps even if they win – all bets are off.
For one last time this season, the 12-member committee will comb through reams and reams of data – strength of schedule, conference championships won, head-to-head results and more – before settling on the best of the best.
Bowl projections: Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, Washington set for playoff
The committee could choose to weigh teams namelessly, comparing contenders by the numbers, statistics and metrics at their disposal. Let's put four teams battling for position in the Playoff race to this blind test.
TEAM A
Strength of schedule, NCAA method: 24th
Strength of schedule, Sagarin ratings: 18th
Number of games vs. current ranked teams (Amway Coaches Poll): 5
Number of wins vs. teams in the current Playoff top 25: 1
Number of top-50 Sagarin teams played: 7
Opponents’ average Sagarin rating: 55.8
Offense vs. defenses ranked in the top 25 in yards per play: 4.91 yards allowed per play (3-2)
Defense vs. offenses ranked in the top 25 in yards per play: 5.14 yards allowed per play (1-0)
TEAM B
Strength of schedule, NCAA method: 25th
Strength of schedule, Sagarin ratings: 23rd
Number of games vs. current ranked teams (Amway Coaches Poll): 4
Number of wins vs. teams in the current Playoff top 25: 2
Number of top-50 Sagarin teams played: 6
Opponents’ average Sagarin rating: 56.2
Offense vs. defenses ranked in the top 25 in yards per play: 4.85 yards allowed per play (1-1)
Defense vs. offenses ranked in the top 25 in yards per play: 5.16 yards allowed per play (2-0)
Questions raised by Playoff committee rankings: Can Michigan still get in?
TEAM C
Strength of schedule, NCAA method: 31st
Strength of schedule, Sagarin ratings: 39th
Number of games vs. current ranked teams (Amway Coaches Poll): 3
Number of wins vs. teams in the current Playoff top 25: 1
Number of top-50 Sagarin teams played: 6
Opponents’ average Sagarin rating: 59.9
Offense vs. defenses ranked in the top 25 in yards per play: 5.45 yards per play (4-1)
Defense vs. offenses ranked in the top 25 in yards per play: 6.08 yards allowed per play (0-1)
TEAM D
Strength of schedule, NCAA method: 14th
Strength of schedule, Sagarin ratings: 33rd
Number of games vs. current ranked teams (Amway Coaches Poll): 5
Number of wins vs. teams in the current Playoff top 25: 3
Number of top-50 Sagarin teams played: 5
Opponents’ average Sagarin rating: 56.3
Offense vs. defenses ranked in the top 25 in yards per play: 5.03 yards allowed per play (5-1)
Defense vs. offenses ranked in the top 25 in yards per play: N/A
Ranking reaction: Washington in position; plenty of intrigue in Group of 5
The hint for this jumbo-size blind study is that these are four teams currently in the thick of the race for the No. 4 spot in the Playoff field. That should help with the names, though maybe not which name corresponds with which team. Cue the drumroll, please:
► TEAM A is Wisconsin.
► TEAM B is Colorado.
► TEAM C is Penn State.
► TEAM D is Michigan.
There’s no Washington on this list, for the simple reason that UW is very likely in the Playoff with a win against Colorado in the Pac-12 championship game. That would render this conversation moot.
(Though I’d be remiss not to mention the chance that Penn State or Wisconsin could leapfrog ahead of the Huskies with a clear and lopsided victory in the Big Ten title game. Imagine Ohio State’s 59-0 win against Wisconsin two seasons ago, for example.)
But with Washington loss, things get extremely interesting. The Big 12 champion won’t be in the mix, so it’s down to those four teams listed above: Wisconsin, Colorado, Penn State and Michigan. Let’s consider the numbers each team would bring to the table with a win this week – with the fact that Michigan’s season is over one clear negative for the Wolverines’ hopes.
Wisconsin would tout a Big Ten title, an extremely stout schedule and at least two wins against teams in the Playoff top 25. (That would be LSU and Penn State, with Iowa potentially moving into the final rankings.) The Badgers’ two losses would be to Ohio State and Michigan.
Is Alabama too good for a suspenseful College Football Playoff?
Colorado would hold the Pac-12 crown, a hugely impressive win against Washington and would head into the postseason on a tear, having defeated Washington State, Utah and the Huskies to end the year. That’s something the committee would consider. The Buffaloes’ losses, USC and Michigan, would have come against teams in the top 10.
Penn State would be Big Ten champs with a résumé-making win against Ohio State. That the Nittany Lions would be 9-1 in league games would weigh heavily on the committee’s mind, since the Big Ten is the nation’s best conference. There’s a loss to Michigan and to Pittsburgh, though the latter made it into the Playoff’s top 25 this week.
And while Michigan wouldn’t have a conference or divisional title, neither does Ohio State. In addition, the Wolverines have a strong trump card: wins against the Badgers, Buffaloes and Nittany Lions. That simply can’t be ignored. Unfortunately, Michigan would have one fewer win than any of the teams listed above.
So you make the call. Pac-12 champs in Colorado? Big Ten champs in either Wisconsin or Penn State? Or a Michigan team that defeated all of the above? Interesting, indeed.
TOP 10 GAMES OF CHAMPIONSHIP WEEK
