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Short oat crop in Canada could mean tight supplies

A short oat crop in Canada has resulted in potentially tight supplies.

“Our biggest concern is looking at 2017-18,” said analyst Randy Strychar, president of Oatinformation.com.  “If we don’t get oat prices up versus wheat, corn, barley and other cereals, we’re going to have a real supply crunch come 2017-18.”

There have been serious delays with Canada’s oat harvest, said Strychar.

‘If we realize the high end of that reduction, we’re likely to see probably the tightest ending stocks for oats on record in Canada,” said Strychar.

Provincial government estimates have as much as a quarter of Canada’s oat crop yet to be harvested.  Canada’s production estimate is for a little less than 3 million metric tons – a thirteen percent drop, which could get worse if some acres remain unharvested.  Strychar says demand, tight supplies and higher prices could lead to more acres of oats planted in the U.S.

“Potentially, if we have the problems that we’re possibly looking at right now you could see oat acres spike again in the U.S.,” he said.  “It really comes down to net returns for farmers.”

Oat futures jumped 25 percent in two months because of potential shortages.

AUDIO: Randy Strychar (3 min. MP3)