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Expected record production pressures soybeans, corn

Futures Markets copy

Soybeans were lower on commercial and technical selling. There has been flooding and harvest delays in the northern Midwest with more expected rain over the next few days, but the trade’s expecting a record crop. In all likelihood, some of this year’s crop has been lost, but totals won’t be known for a while. The fundamental outlook is neutral on that expected record production along with record expected demand. Soybean meal and oil were lower, following beans. According to China’s Customs Ministry, August soybean imports of 7.671 million tons came mostly from Brazil, nearly 5 million tons, with 1.9 million from Argentina, and 364,000 from the U.S.

Corn was lower on commercial and technical selling. Corn was also watching the flooding and harvest delays while still expecting record production. There’s been some damage and loss, but that won’t be quantified for a while. China put a big import tax on U.S. distillers’ grains imports, citing anti-dumping concerns, but possibly in retaliation for a recent WTO complaint about China’s farm subsidies. Ethanol futures were steady to firm.

The wheat complex was mixed with fractionally change in Chicago and mostly firm trade in Kansas City and Minneapolis. Winter wheat planting in the Plains should see a near term rain delay ahead of drier weather in the coming week. The large world supply should keep a cap on any attempt at a sustained rally. According to wire reports, India has lowered its import tax on wheat from 25% to 10%. Russia’s Ag Ministry is projecting total production for wheat, dried and cleaned, at 71 million tons. India recently purchased wheat from Ukraine with prices for some import origins below domestic levels.

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