Sunday, August 21, 2016

Republicans Could Lose Senate Control


Democrats have a 78% chance of getting 50-plus seats in November, the HuffPost Senate model shows.

According to The Huffington Post’s Senate model, which relies on the polls aggregated in HuffPost Pollster charts, there’s a 55% chance that the Senate will swing completely over and a 23% chance that it’s tied at 50 seats for each Party. That means there’s a 78% chance that the Democratic Party could get 50 or more seats.

Part of the Democrats’ advantage comes from holding more safe seats in the Senate than the Republicans. They have 36 seats that aren’t up for election, compared to the GOP’s 30 safe seats. But some Republican candidates are under-performing, possibly thanks to Trump at the top of the ticket.

Based on projections for the Presidential race, a tie would still be good news for Democrats. Most models give the Democratic ticket of Clinton and Sen. Kaine (D-Va.) at least an 80% chance of winning the Presidency. That would make Kaine the tie-breaking vote in the Senate as the Vice President, shifting Democrats back into the majority by a 51-50 split. Of course, if the Presidential Election goes the other way, Republicans would have the upper hand.

The model also produces probabilities for each individual Senate race where polling is available, and approximates the State of the race where there isn’t any or enough polling to run the model.

CLICK HERE to read the entire report and view the State models.











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