Inside Clinton's plan to win over Sanders' backers and not lose the middle
Bernie Sanders may or may not ultimately try to persuade his passionate voters to love Hillary Clinton, but she’s not waiting to find out.
In the coming weeks, Clinton plans to emphasize portions of her agenda that align with Sanders’ chief priorities — especially campaign finance changes and college affordability — while highlighting and fleshing out proposals to boost middle-class jobs and wages in a bid to energize the entire Democratic Party, according to two campaign officials who were not authorized to speak publicly about her plans.
Conventional general election strategy dating to Richard Nixon dictates that candidates play to the far ends of their respective bases during the primaries — Democrats to liberals and Republicans to conservatives — until effectively locking down the nomination, when they pivot to issues that appeal to a broader electorate.
“There are many reasons in her case not to pursue that course of action,” said Bill Galston, a former domestic policy adviser to Bill Clinton who co-authored a road map for his 1992 victory.
"Things she’s been pushed to the left on are not unpalatable to the center," including trade, he said. The primary campaign has “done some damage to her standing with the American people, and I don’t think she’ll rebuild that by changing course,” said Galston. “She’d have a better chance to do that by holding her ground and fleshing it out, defending it, and arguing as best she can that it’s a reasonable and responsible place to be,” he said.
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Clinton shifting staff to general election swing states
Polls show only a little more than a third of voters consider her “honest” and “trustworthy.”
However, Democrats are betting if Donald Trump is the Republican nominee, he’ll drive moderate suburban swing voters, and possibly some Republican women, into Clinton's column, regardless of any concerns they may have about her. That means the risks that come with alienating the Democratic base may be greater than those of failing to actively court more centrist voters.
“They may not need to move too far to the center because many of these suburban swing voters are so repelled by Trump,” said Larry Jacobs, a presidential politics scholar and a political department chair at the University of Minnesota.
The Clinton campaign also believes economic populism is now mainstream in both parties. It held back a middle-class tax cut plan during the primary, believing that rolling it out in the general election will energize both moderates and progressives. While her tax measures thus far have focused on specific tax credits, the campaign is now aiming to deliver a broader middle-class tax relief plan with a specific dollar amount, according to one aide.
Clinton telegraphed the approach in a victory speech a week ago after sweeping four of five Eastern primaries that all but mathematically extinguished Sanders’ hopes of clinching the nomination. She vowed to build on “a strong progressive tradition” dating to Franklin Roosevelt.
“That’s not the kind of language that someone who’s preparing to create space in the general election would be using,” said Jacobs.
Sanders, a Vermont senator, still insists he can win the nomination through a contested convention, and polls indicate Tuesday's primary in Indiana could be close. Surveys show up to 40% of Sanders voters say they may not vote for Clinton in November.
Poll: Trump, Clinton face divides in their parties even if they win nominations
By June 2008, after a tense campaign, a similar percentage of Clinton voters said they wouldn’t vote for Barack Obama, though many did in the end. Sanders voters, who've cast their campaign as a new political movement, may prove more inflexible.
“There will be real outrage among progressives if there is an attempt to backslide,” said Neil Sroka, communications director at Democracy for America, which is working on Sanders behalf. “She tried very, very hard to beat Bernie Sanders as a progressive candidate,” he said, so “let’s make sure you govern as a progressive as well.”
Clinton will focus on the same economic proposals she's been touting, including a minimum-wage increase and creating jobs through infrastructure and clean-energy investments. They’ll be wrapped in populist language emphasizing the need to return profits to workers who helped create them.
Clinton’s strategy has a dual purpose.
It reminds the left about the areas where she and Sanders align, while framing a clear contrast with Trump. She will also emphasize immigration, according to one official. It’s another area where Sanders and Clinton are largely in agreement, despite debate scuffles over which version of an overhaul Sanders supported in Congress.
There’s also the question of what Sanders may want in the context of the Philadelphia convention. The more delegates he amasses in remaining contests, the stronger a voice he’ll have on the committee that crafts the official party platform.
Sanders' chief priorities are becoming clear. On Sunday, he held a news conference criticizing, again, the role of the party’s superdelegates, party officials who have a vote at the convention and have overwhelmingly supported Clinton. He was also tweeting about campaign finance reform and wages.
Sanders tries to sway Democratic superdelegates
Campaign officials did not list specific offerings Clinton could make. According to one person close to the campaign, they could include modifying the role of those delegates.
Recent history suggests changing approaches and rhetoric mid-campaign carries risk. In 2012, Republican nominee Mitt Romney made comments during his primary race to appeal to conservatives, including calling for “self-deportation” of immigrants.
“It has gotten harder and harder to say things at one time to one audience and at a later time to say something different to a different audience,” said Galston, citing Romney.
“He had rung a lot of bells he couldn’t unring,” said Galston.