Super PAC spending takes over early states
WASHINGTON — A Republican advertising onslaught will hit the airwaves in Iowa and New Hampshire in the next two months, largely led by outside groups that already dominate political spending before next year’s election.
About 70% of the candidate-focused ads reserved in December and January in the two states that lead off the Republican nomination battle come from super PACs or other candidate-aligned political groups that can raise unlimited sums, according to tallies by Kantar Media's Campaign Media Analysis Group and other trackers.
In New Hampshire, more than $20 million of the roughly $27 million in TV and radio advertising planned for December and January comes from groups supporting individual candidates, rather than their campaigns.
A super PAC aligned with Republican Jeb Bush accounts for about 40% of the planned GOP presidential advertising in the state over the next two months. It has spent about $12 million since early September in the Granite State, running ads that tout his biography and background as a two-term Florida governor, according to media trackers.
Outside groups supporting New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Ohio Gov. John Kasich and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio also have spent heavily in the state.
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“These super PACs have been setting the table for New Hampshire voters,” in sharp contrast to previous elections when campaigns took on that function, said Dante Scala, a political scientist at the University of New Hampshire.
The lopsided spending by super PACs underscores their outsized role in a race that has seen candidates such as Bush, once presumed to be the front-runner, stumble in the polls and fight to retain his fundraising edge. Bush drew $103 million to his super PAC during the first half of the year, but he’s attracted far less money — roughly $25 million over a six-month period — to his campaign.
“Campaigns are having trouble raising money. Super PACs have the money. They don’t have a choice” but to take the lead in advertising, said Evan Tracey, a Republican media consultant with National Media in Alexandria, Va.
That outside help comes at a steep price and pays for fewer ads.
Candidates qualify for lower-priced ads under federal law. Super PACs do not. Bush, for instance, is paying $75 to run a 30-second spot during the 4 p.m. local news on Des Moines' NBC affiliate WHO in early January, according to Federal Communications Commission records. His super PAC, Right to Rise, is paying $375 for a single, 30-second spot during the same time slot at the same station.
An increasing share of pro-Rubio messages are coming from his campaign as he rises in the polls and wins the support of big-name Republican donors, including hedge-fund founder and prolific fundraiser Paul Singer.
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This week, Rubio unveiled his first early state TV ad, a tribute to his Cuban-born father who worked as a bartender. The 60-second commercial, intended to highlight his life story as the son of hardworking immigrants, will air in the four early voting states and is part of $20 million in advertising that Rubio's campaign has reserved in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada and on national cable through the contests in February.
Before Rubio's advertising push this week, an outside group, Conservative Solutions Project, had taken the lead on the pro-Rubio advertising in the two early states. As of early November, Conservative Solutions had spent more than $8 million on ads promoting the Floridian, according to an Associated Press tally of CMAG data.
Conservative Solutions stands out because it is a non-profit group funded by secret donors, and its spending has prompted watchdog groups to lodge complaints with the U.S. Justice Department and the IRS, alleging the group has violated federal restrictions on the political activity by non-profit organizations. Officials with Conservative Solutions maintain they have broken no rules. Super PACs, by contrast, disclose their donors' identities.
Officials with Rubio's campaign declined to comment this week on their advertising strategy or the outside spending.
"The question for Rubio is whether his advertising kicks in and helps him further increase his momentum," said Elizabeth Wilner, who tracks political ads as a Kantar senior vice president. The 2016 campaign is defying conventional wisdom, she said.
Billionaire developer Donald Trump has dominated the race without investing in a single television commercial, while millions in advertising from Bush's super PAC hasn't pushed him ahead of his rivals in the polls.
"Advertising isn't doing for candidates what it has traditionally done," Wilner said.