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U.S. ag exports decline while imports increase

Despite declines from 2014, U.S. agricultural exports in Fiscal 2015 and 2016 are projected to be the third and fourth-highest on record. In addition, Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack says 2009-to-2015 represents the strongest seven years in history for U.S. agricultural trade.

Total ag exports for Fiscal 2015 are estimated at $139.5 billion down $1 billion from the May estimate and $12.8 billion below FY2014. Beef and horticultural exports are about the only items expected to be above 2014 levels.

Agricultural imports are projected to total $115.5 billion this year, down $1.5 billion from the May estimate but $6.3 billion above FY2014. That puts the U.S. ag trade surplus at $24 billion for FY 2015 compared to $43.1 billion the previous year.

FY2016 ag exports are projected to be $138.5 billion and imports at $122.5 billion reducing the U.S. ag trade surplus at $16 billion.

Here are the details:

The latest numbers from USDA say grain and feed exports should be $31.3 billion this Fiscal Year 2015. That is up $800 million from the previous forecast thanks mainly to strong demand for DDGs by China. Oilseed exports are forecast at $31.1 billion this year up $100 million from the previous forecast. Increased soybean volume and value offset the declines in soybean meal so other oilseeds and products were responsible for the overall increase.

U.S. cotton exports are estimated at $4.1 billion this fiscal year up $400 million from the previous forecast. End-of-year shipments have increased as Brazil and Australia have been slow to ship.

Livestock, dairy and poultry exports are projected to total $29.8 billion this year, down $1.5 billion from the previous estimate. Dairy exports were cut $400 million to $5.8 billion as U.S. exports face stiff global competition. Beef exports were trimmed $300 million to $6.2 billion as demand weakens in Canada, Mexico and Japan. Pork export projections are unchanged at $4.8 billion and poultry product sales were reduced $600 million to reflect lower broiler prices.

FY2016:

The ag department predicts U.S. agricultural exports in FY 2016 will be $138.5 billion this fiscal year down $1 billon from FY 2015. Meanwhile ag imports are projected to be a record $122.5 billion.

USDA says oilseeds and oilseed products are the main reason for the decline. Lower soybean and soybean meal prices combined with reduced volume will result in sales $4.4 billion below FY 2015. Grain and feed exports are expected to increase $1.1 billion due largely to wheat. Cotton exports are projected to be down $400 million due to a smaller U.S. crop.

Livestock, dairy and poultry exports are expected to increase $600 million in FY 2016 as higher volume more-than-offsets lower prices. Beef exports are projected to be a record $$6.2 billion next year, pork sales are projected to be $5.1 billion while poultry sales are expected to be $5.3 billion. Dairy exports are projected to be about the same as this year at $5.8 billion as declining prices are offset by expected increases in volume.

 

Canada is projected to return as the largest customer for U.S. ag exports as lower soybean values will cause a $2 billion decline in Chinese purchases.

 

U.S. ag imports are forecast at a record $122.5 billion due mainly to increased import values. The largest gains will be in sugar, tropical products and horticultural products.

 

As a result, the U.S. ag trade surplus is predicted to be $16 billion next year compared to $24 billion in the current FY 2015.