Precious Metals News & Analysis - Gold News, Silver News from Money Metals Exchange

Brien Lundin: Debt, Debasement, and Why Gold’s Bull Market Has Support

Sat, 05 Sep 2026 00:00:00 EST

In a recent Money Metals Podcast interview, host Mike Maharrey spoke with https://www.google.com/search?q=Brien+F.+Lundin&;amp;biw=1728&bih=962&sca_esv=8366ebc584332cb8&sxsrf=APpeQnti_RQuwPms3f2Zs4MnGn5LQcNSIA%3A1788545677840&ei=jQqbavzpMvfKp84P9_O24QU&ved=2ahUKEwi85Kruw9WWAxV35ckDHfe5LVwQ4dUDegQIBhAM&uact=5&oq=Brien+F.+Lundin&gs_lp=Egxnd3Mtd2l6LXNlcnAiD0JyaWVuIEYuIEx1bmRpbjIFECEYoAEyBRAhGKABMgUQIRigAUjgN1DZBVjqJnABeACQAQCYAYABoAGsBaoBAzQuM7gBA8gBAPgBAZgCCKACyQXCAgsQABiABBiiBBiwA8ICCBAAGO8FGLADwgIFEAAY7wXCAggQABiABBiiBMICBBAAGB7CAggQABgIGAcYHsICBxAAGIAEGA3CAgYQABgeGA3CAggQABgFGB4YDZgDAIgGAZAGBZIHAzQuNKAH0xqyBwMzLjS4B8cFwgcFMS41LjLIBxCACAE&sclient=gws-wiz-serp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Brien Lundin, editor of The Gold Newsletter and CEO of the New Orleans Investment Conference, about the outlook for gold and silver amid swelling federal debt, rising Treasury yields, Federal Reserve policy, and what Lundin views as the return of the “debasement trade.”

Lundin said the central question is not whether officials can talk tough on inflation, but whether the math permits a sustained tightening campaign. With https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/20/the-40-trillion-national-debt-in-perspective-005151";>U.S. federal debt above $40 trillion and the debt trajectory steepening, he argued that the country cannot simply “grow its way out” of the problem.

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The Limits of Rate Hikes

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Maharrey asked why Lundin considers expectations of aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes under Chair Kevin Warsh to be misplaced. Lundin said Warsh may sincerely want to fight inflation, but that https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/20/40-trillion-debt-black-hole-is-a-financial-crisis-coming-005149";>the size of today’s debt burden severely limits the Fed’s options.

He contrasted the current situation with the late 1970s and early 1980s, when Paul Volcker could raise interest rates dramatically to combat inflation. At that time, Lundin said, federal debt stood near 35 percent of GDP. Today, he put the figure closer to 135 percent of GDP.

That difference changes everything. Higher rates increase the government’s debt-service burden, and Lundin said rate increases now have far greater leverage on an already heavily indebted economy. He believes Warsh may be able to https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/31/fed-chair-warsh-runs-open-mouth-operations-at-jackson-hole-but-can-he-deliver-005173";>deliver a symbolic quarter-point hike, but a sustained campaign of increases is effectively impossible.

Why Debt Points Toward Debasement

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Lundin rejected the suggestion that the United States can solve its debt problem through economic growth alone. He said only an extraordinary, unforeseeable leap in productivity—such as unlimited energy or interstellar travel—would make that plausible.

Absent that, Lundin argued that governments historically resort to debasing their underlying currencies https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/09/03/the-feds-no-exit-ramp-debt-dollar-debasement-and-the-case-for-gold-005179";>when debt becomes too large to manage through normal fiscal means. He said the “debasement trade,” a term popularized on Wall Street, is again https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/27/gold-and-silver-surge-as-the-debasement-trade-returns-005164";>becoming a major force in markets.

Maharrey agreed that the debt issue has been discussed for decades, including during the 1990s and the “Contract with America” era. But both men noted that debt has compounded dramatically since then, while policymakers have shown little willingness to impose the political pain necessary to reverse the trend.

Treasury Buybacks Sent a Message

The discussion also turned to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s decision https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/25/bessents-bond-market-intervention-juices-debasement-trade-boosts-gold-005161";>to increase long-end bond buybacks from $2 billion to $4 billion. Lundin acknowledged that the increase was technically small in the context of a bond market worth more than $30 trillion.

Still, he said the market’s reaction was understandable. The move suggested that the Treasury was willing to influence yields at one end of the curve and could be prepared to intervene further if necessary.

Lundin argued that the effort was not technically yield-curve control, but it nevertheless revealed an inclination to manage yields. In his view, the Treasury’s attempt to project strength instead signaled weakness and desperation.

Gold reportedly jumped about $180 in response. Stocks, bonds, gold, and silver all initially rallied, but Lundin said equities faded as the day went on while gold and silver continued to advance.

Gold and Bonds Are Seeing the Same Danger

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One of Lundin’s most important observations was the positive correlation between gold and the 10-year Treasury yield since late June. Ordinarily, higher yields are often viewed as negative for non-yielding gold. But Lundin said today’s relationship is different.

He argued that yields are rising not because of strong economic growth or normal monetary tightening, but because investors are increasingly concerned about debt and deficits. Bond investors, often described as bond vigilantes, are demanding greater returns to hold sovereign debt while also turning to gold as a hedge.

Lundin said gold and bonds are among the most sensitive predictive mechanisms in financial markets. Their behavior, he argued, suggests markets may be anticipating a future crisis, even if no one can identify the precise trigger in advance.

Complacency and the Debt Endgame

Lundin cautioned against predicting the exact date of a financial breaking point. He said many respected analysts have warned of a debt crisis for 30 years or more, and the system has continued operating.

But he also stressed that complacency can be dangerous. Drawing on his experience near Lake Pontchartrain before Hurricane Katrina, Lundin recalled noticing inadequate efforts to reinforce levees only months before the storm devastated New Orleans.

For Lundin, the debt situation carries a similar lesson. A risk can remain ignored for years until an event exposes the vulnerability all at once. He believes the U.S. may be in the endgame of more than https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/24/its-real-and-you-need-to-be-ready-for-it-005159";>45 years of increasingly easy money and expanding debt, though he does not claim to know exactly how long that endgame will last.

Rising Yields Do Not Automatically Hurt Gold

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Maharrey asked Lundin about the conventional belief that higher interest rates and rising yields are always negative for gold. Lundin said that view is historically incomplete.

Some of gold’s strongest advances since the metal became investable after 1971—and especially after the United States permitted private gold ownership again in 1974—occurred during periods of rising rates and yields. During the 1970s, yields rose to fight inflation, but they did not keep up with inflation, allowing gold to rise.

Today, Lundin sees a different version of the same dynamic. Yields are rising because debt and deficits have become more ominous, not because the economy is necessarily strong. He added that this is a global phenomenon, with sovereign yields around the world moving sharply higher.

Lundin said he watches the price of gold more closely than the dollar index. In his view, all fiat currencies are competing against one another while depreciating over time, making gold a more meaningful measuring stick.

A Long-Term Tailwind for Gold and Silver

Lundin said he expects the macroeconomic trend to remain supportive of gold and silver until governments resolve their debt and fiat-currency problems. However, he cautioned that a bull market does not move in a straight line.

He said the first 18 months of the current metals bull market were unusually forgiving, with corrections largely playing out through sideways consolidation rather than steep price declines. As Western investors and algorithmic trading play a larger role, he expects more volatility and sharper headline-driven corrections.

For physical precious metals holders, Lundin said the larger question is whether they can afford not to own gold or silver when cash savings may lose purchasing power over time. For mining-stock investors, he emphasized the importance of buying dips during a bull market and taking some profits when markets become excessively frothy.

The Next Crisis May Come From the Unexpected

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Lundin said he believes gold and bonds may be “sniffing out” the next major financial crisis. He did not claim to know what will cause it, noting that the bubbles in markets are often obvious while the event that punctures them tends to arrive from an unexpected direction.

Maharrey pointed to 2018 and 2019, when market weakness, a late-2018 stock selloff, and repo-market strain preceded the COVID-era monetary response. Lundin noted that the Fed began a roughly $500 billion liquidity effort in late August and early September 2019, even as officials resisted calling it quantitative easing.

Both Maharrey and Lundin argued that the https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/20/us-treasury-intervenes-in-bond-market-to-drive-yields-lower-005150";>Federal Reserve’s balance sheet is again expanding through bond purchases, regardless of the terminology officials use. Lundin said efforts to manage Treasury yields may provide temporary relief, but they do not eliminate the underlying debt problem.

New Orleans Investment Conference

Lundin also encouraged viewers to attend the New Orleans Investment Conference, which he said brings together roughly 40 speakers, mining companies, investors, and analysts during a metals and mining bull market.

The conference will take place over Halloween weekend in New Orleans and will include recorded presentations, panels, workshops, and a Metals and Mining Masquerade Ball. Lundin said the exhibit hall is sold out, hotel availability is tightening, and registrations are arriving at the fastest pace he has seen in decades.

For more information, Lundin directed viewers to GoldNewsletter.com and NewOrleansConference.com.

Gold Slammed as Strong Jobs Report Revives Rate Hike Fears

Fri, 04 Sep 2026 00:00:00 EST

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.

Coming up in a moment, we have an exclusive interview with Brien Lundin, editor of the Gold Newsletter and the CEO of the renowned New Orleans Investment Conference. Brien offers his tremendous insights into the current state of the gold market and warns investors who don’t own any of the yellow metal yet that they are simply playing with fire.

Mike Maharrey and Brien also discuss how rising interest rates are not necessarily a bad thing for metals and how the debasement trade is coming back into fashion, which could be a driver for higher gold prices moving forward.

So be sure to stick around for another terrific conversation with metals and financial industry insider Brien Lundin, coming up after this week’s market update. And as a reminder please download, like, rate and subscribe to this podcast wherever you consume this content.

Well, after precious metals appeared ready to finish the week on a strong note, a surprisingly strong U.S. employment report changed the picture on Friday morning.

And once again, it all comes down to expectations about what the Federal Reserve will do with interest rates.

Gold and silver were getting slammed earlier this morning, with gold falling more than 2% following the release of the August jobs report – although it has since recovered somewhat.

The Labor Department reported this morning that the U.S. economy added 162,000 jobs in August. That was nearly triple the roughly 56,000 jobs economists had expected. The unemployment rate also held steady at 4.1%.

On top of that, the government revised the previous two months higher by a combined 55,000 jobs.

Traders immediately began betting that the Fed is more likely to raise interest rates again.

Before the report, markets were putting the odds of a September rate hike at roughly 50-50. After the strong jobs numbers came out, the probability of a quarter-point hike jumped to around 60%.

Bond yields and the U.S. dollar moved higher.

And that was all traders in the highly leveraged futures markets needed to hear.

Initially, gold plunged more than 2% this morning, falling to around $4,375 an ounce in early trading. That's a remarkable reversal from Thursday, when the yellow metal surged roughly 2% and appeared to be regaining its footing.

Thursday's rally came after Fed Governor Christopher Waller suggested he could support leaving rates unchanged this month if inflation continues to cool.

Silver followed basically the same pattern. It enjoyed a strong recovery Thursday before getting caught in Friday morning's precious metals selloff.

The dramatic reversal shows just how sensitive gold and silver remain to changing expectations about interest rates.

But investors shouldn't mistake a bad day in the metals markets for a change in the long-term reasons for owning gold and silver.

The Fed is still dealing with stubborn inflation, enormous federal deficits, high borrowing costs, and now an economy that appears stronger than many economists expected.

In fact, today's employment report may make the Fed's job even harder.

Fed officials have been looking for signs that higher interest rates are slowing the economy enough to bring inflation under control. Instead, they just received evidence that employers are still hiring at a healthy pace.

That makes another rate hike more likely, which is clearly weighing on gold and silver today.

But higher interest rates create another problem. They also increase the cost of servicing the enormous federal debt. And the longer rates remain high, the more financial pressure that creates.

Meanwhile, central banks around the world are sending a very different message about gold.

They're not just watching what its price does from one day to the next. They increasingly view physical gold as a form of financial insurance.

And they're paying closer attention to where that gold is actually stored.

The latest example comes from the Netherlands.

The Dutch central bank has moved approximately 86 metric tons of gold out of North America and into London, citing growing geopolitical risks and the need to be better prepared for a potential crisis.

That's a substantial move.

Before the change, more than half of the Netherlands' gold reserves were stored in North America. About 31% was in New York and nearly 20% was in Ottawa.

Now, each location holds about 18.5% of Dutch reserves, while London's share has jumped from 18% to 32%.

And the reasoning isn't difficult to understand.

The Dutch central bank says spreading its gold among different locations reduces risk and makes the metal easier to access and use during a crisis.

Think about it this way.

You may legally own gold sitting in a vault thousands of miles away. But if there's a major financial or geopolitical crisis, suddenly the location of that gold matters.

Can you get to it? Can you move it? What government has jurisdiction over it? And what happens if transportation or financial markets are disrupted?

The Netherlands isn't the only country asking those questions.

France recently eliminated its remaining central-bank gold holdings in New York. Germany previously moved hundreds of tons of gold back home from Paris and New York, although it still keeps a significant amount at the New York Fed.

And a World Gold Council survey this year found more central banks changing where they keep their gold. Some are bringing more of it home, while others are spreading their overseas holdings among different locations.

In other words, central banks aren't just thinking about how much gold they own. They're thinking about where they own it.

And there's an interesting lesson here for the United States.

A tremendous amount of America's gold and silver trading infrastructure and physical inventory is concentrated in and around New York.

That may be convenient during normal times. But putting too much of something important in one place also creates risk.

A natural disaster, terrorist attack, major power outage, transportation shutdown, or other crisis could disrupt access to a large portion of the country's precious metals market at once.

That's why geographic diversification matters.

Central bankers understand something precious metals investors have understood for generations: Gold is supposed to protect you when the normal financial system isn't working normally.

And if that's why you own it, then where your gold is located – and whether you can actually get to it when you need it – matters.

So, Friday's strong jobs report may help determine what gold and silver do today, next week, or even next month.

But the much bigger story is what central banks are doing with physical gold for the long haul. They're continuing to treat it as strategic financial insurance – and increasingly, they're making sure they don't keep too much of that insurance in any one place.

Looking more closely now at the weekly market action before we get to this week’s interview, gold is down a slight 0.4% to check in at $4,450 an ounce as of this Friday late morning recording.

As for silver, the white metal showed a decent gain through Thursday but with today’s pullback is currently trading at $66.85, down about 20 cents or 0.3% on the week.

As for the PGMs, platinum is unchanged at $1,836, while palladium is showing a weekly decline of 2.7% to trade at $1,418 an ounce.

Well now, without further delay let’s get right to our exclusive interview with the man behind the famous New Orleans Investment Conference, Brien Lundin.

Mike Maharrey: Greetings. I'm Mike Mehring. I'm joined today by Brien Lundin. Brien is the editor of the Gold Newsletter and CEO of the New Orleans Investment Conference, which I'm going to give him an opportunity to tell you about at the end of the interview here. But excited to have Brien on. He's a great analyst and an all -around good human being. How you doing, Brien?

Brien Lundin: I'm doing great, Mike. Thank you for that wonderful introduction. It appears to me that you don't know me that well, but that's okay.

Mike Maharrey: Well, impressions, stuff like that.

Brien Lundin: Yeah.

Mike Maharrey: No, I always do enjoy talking to you and you seem like a good guy to me, so we're just going to go with it. Let's go

Brien Lundin: With it. Let's go with that.

Mike Maharrey: All right. So the markets are interesting right now. I guess they're always interesting, but we had several months of doldrums with gold and silver booth kind of trading sideways, and then we had a little bit of a breakout. And then the Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, kind of slammed the prices down with his Jackson Hole speech or his open mouth operations, as I like to call him. And you said in a recent article that was published over at moneymetals.com that the misplaced view that the Fed was going to be raising rates was getting exploded much earlier than you'd expected. And that was kind of the impetus at least initially of the resumption of the gold bull market, shall we say. So I'm curious, just first off, what do you mean by misplaced? Why do you think that the notion that Warsh is going to race and hike and be all aggressive, why is that misplaced? Because he keeps telling me that he's tough on inflation.

Brien Lundin: Yeah. He keeps telling people that, and he might be sincere in that belief. And frankly, I think Warsh is the best of a not so admirable group of Federal Reserve chairman that I've seen. He talks a good game. He might be sincere, but if he's sincere in what he's saying, then he just hasn't done the math. And Bessent the same way. Bessent was a gold bug before he took office and now he's in the uncomfortable position, I believe for him as supposedly based as he is in defending the administration and really saying some ridiculous things. So, on the one hand, we have Warsh who is moving the markets by making these pronunciations that fighting inflation is now job won for the Fed, and the market believes it and then they revert back to what they were doing before after a little while, kind of wear us off.

Brien Lundin: So, Warsh has done this, what, two, maybe three times so far, two meetings in one Jackson Hole speech. And we've had the reaction in the markets each time. And then the previous trend resumes really for everything. Bessent said when the federal debt rolled over 40 trillion, that 40 trillion isn't a magic number and we can grow our way out of it. And I commented in this month's issue of gold newsletter that just went out and on X, that he said that for straight face, but he obviously can't believe that he's done the math. There is no way at this point where the debt, as large as it is, with the trajectory as steep as it is for us to grow our way out of it. In the newsletter, I said that if aliens landed tomorrow and gave us the secret to unlimited energy and interstellar travel, okay, maybe we could grow our way out of it.

But absent that, the numbers just don't, the math doesn't work that way. We can't grow our way out of it. And the only thing that's going to happen is the age old prescription, the remedy that's been the same in every human civilization and that's the underlying currency has to be debased and that's what's going to happen. And I think that debasement trade as Wall Street so helpfully labeled it a while back, a year or so ago, is getting back in fashion and wants to get back in fashion.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah, the math doesn't math. It's a great way to put it. It's funny because I think back and I remember the 1990s pretty well. I wasn't particularly interested in what was going on, but I was at least old enough to be cognizant. And I remember the contract with America and the big Republican revolution, and it was all built around we have too much debt We have too much spending! And they were telling us then that we could grow our way out of this fiscal mess. And here we are today, trillions and trillions of dollars later. And the trajectory seems to kind of move the same.

Brien Lundin: Yeah, it's a multiple. That's a multiple, what, four times what it was back then?

Mike Maharrey: Yeah, it's insane. In fact, I was just looking the other day. I don't remember the exact numbers off the top of my head, but just the amount of debt that has been added in the Biden-Trump era is pretty staggering in and of itself. You pointed out, and what kind of precipitated the most recent rally in gold before Warsh started flapping his yap in Jackson Hole was this move for the Treasury Department to buy more bonds on the long end of the yield curve. And you made the point, and I think rightfully so, that from just a technical standpoint, from a practical standpoint, not that big a deal. We have a 30 plus trillion dollar bond market. The treasury's going to intervene with what? They're doubling from two billion to $4 billion. So from that perspective, not a big deal, but the markets took it as a big deal.

Why do you think that happened? What kind of happened there in your mind?

Brien Lundin: Yeah, the markets took it, I think rightfully so, the underlying message that Bessent didn't want to deliver was that it wasn't technically yield curve control, but it was control of yields. And there is a very technical definition of yield curve control, which online everybody will quickly remind you of. But the sense decision and obvious inclination to mess with yields at one end means that he won't have any hesitation with messing with yields along the whole curve if and when he wants to. And the market took it as rightfully so again, that he was trying to jiggle the markets, can control the markets. And we all know that never works. In fact, the next day after the initial reaction, yields popped right back up to where they were beforehand. So doubling from two trillion billion to four billion went from one drop in the bucket to two drops in the bucket.

But the intent of the cent to show the treasury's determination and strength really only ended up showing the treasury's weakness.

Mike Maharrey: It kind of smacked of desperation, didn't it? It was kind of like, ‘But we're going to pretend like it wasn't desperation. No big deal, nothing to see here.’ And yet the markets I think saw something there, right?

Brien Lundin: Yeah. I mean, gold popped $180 in reaction, so that tells you everything you need to know. And what was really interesting about that day is that all of the markets popped on the reaction, stocks, bonds, the metals, et cetera. But as the day wore on, as the trading session wore on, the rally in equities kind of petered out and they still closed in the green, but far below their highs. In contrast, gold and silver just kept powering ahead all day long. So, I think that says a lot. I think that gold and bonds really are the most sensitive of the investment markets. All the investment markets are predictive mechanisms. Golden bonds I think are more sensitive than anything else. And gold and bonds are telling us that something lies ahead. They're really sniffing it out. One of the things I note in this issue of gold newsletter that I find really intriguing is that since late June, Treasury yields and treasury bond yields, in particular the 10-year Treasury yield and gold have been positively correlated for virtually that whole time.

Brien Lundin: And the only time they have it is when Warsh has stepped out and said something and gold has dropped down for a day or two, but otherwise they have been positively correlated. Gold has been rising with treasury yields and that only happens when treasury yields are rising for the atypical reasons when they're rising because bond vigilantes are coming out and saying, "We see trouble ahead. We demand higher returns, higher yields if you want us to invest in your securities." And they're also obviously for that reason hedging with gold.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah. I've been saying for quite some time that the notion that the Fed can just willy-nilly raise rates, and that's almost how Warsh makes it sound, right? Oh, well we're going to raise rates if we have to.

And yet we have this massive national debt, $40 trillion plus. We have massive levels of consumer debt, well over a trillion dollars just in credit card debt alone. We have massive levels of corporate debt. We're starting to see some kind of rumblings and ricketiness in the private bond market, private financing. So there's all this debt. It just seems obvious to me that talking about raising rates in this environment is at least questionable. And yet nobody in the mainstream ever seems to question it. And I'm curious, this is more of a rhetorical question than anything, but I'm curious about your response. Why? Why isn't anybody paying attention to the debt in relation to what the Fed may or may not do?

Brien Lundin: Well, because the problem never seems to blow up. And frankly, I can understand it. I've been in this business for over four decades and I have seen some of the smartest people I know and some of the analysts that I respect most walk across our stage at the New Orleans conference and predict that the debt bond is finally going to blow up. And they've been doing that for 30 some odd years and it never happens. And part of me says, well, am I just getting to the point where I'm becoming a curmudgeon as well and looking at it and say, Oh, it's going to blow up now. Everything's going to hell. You youngsters get off my lawn and all this stuff. But then I look at the math and the numbers now are absolutely staggering. And of course, if you're the issuer of the world's global reserve currency, you have more leeway than other nations and you can get away with it for longer.

But when you're paying more on the interest on the national debt than you are in national defense and you are the guardian of the world, you're the policeman of the world, so you're already spending more than anybody else in that regard, you're spending more in interest. And those interest costs are about to exceed every other line item in the budget. It is just inescapable to me, irrefutable that this is a problem. Now when the debt rolled over 40 trillion, I did see some commentators on CNBC talk about that and talk about how the cost of servicing the debt was so large, et cetera, et cetera. But then they quickly moved on because it wasn't about AI. It wasn't what everybody wanted to see and wanted to see them commenting on. And so they simply moved on. And until it blows up, people will not pay attention.

And I think we are, I mean, really after 45 years of ever easier money, ever greater debts that ever easier money encourages, I think we're in the end game. But how long will that end game go? We don't know. There are people out there saying, "This is it. The next crisis will be the big one." The Peter Schiffs of the world saying, "It's done. We're toast the next crisis and there'll be a big reset and everything else." I don't know that. I don't think anybody can be smart enough to know that, but I think what we can do is recognize the trend and we are stuck firmly in that trend right now and you want to play that trend. You want to protect yourself, monetary metals, and I think mining stocks and other levers on those metals.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah, absolutely. It's interesting because you get that sense of complacency. We've been, like I just mentioned, back in the '90s, we were talking about the problem of the debt and nothing has happened. I always think of that quote that things happen slowly and then all at once. That always kind of rings in the back of my head, but I kind of get what you're saying. You do sometimes feel like a permabear. And then when something does happen, people are, "Oh yeah, there's Meharry again, broken clock right every once in a while. If you bearish long enough, you're going to hit every once in a while." But I think you're right. You look at the trajectory of things. And I think two things are most concerning to me. The first is the fact that nobody seems concerned about actually doing anything about the debt. It'd be one thing if we said, "Okay, 40 trillion, that's a lot. It's a problem. Let's address this." Nobody in politics is willing to address, and the nature of politics I think is such that it won't get addressed because everybody's short term. I care about getting elected, so I don't want to cause any pain now. If there's pain in 20 years, so be it. And then the other thing that's concerning, you mentioned the fact that the dollar is the world reserve standard, the world reserve currency. That is obviously fading. There's no question about that. We're seeing gold overtake dollars as the primary reserve currency for central banks. We're seeing these shifts. And I think that the slower movement maybe is more relevant to us today than trying to predict some type of major crash. Do you agree with that?

Brien Lundin: Yeah. People do move on. It's human nature. And I just get back to one of the truisms of my life is that complacency kills and eventually the unthinkable or the sometimes in the future becomes thinkable. And today, a little over 20 years ago, I used to jog just about every morning down to the Lake Pontchartrain where I lived. I lived down here around New Orleans, and I would jog along the levee there by Lake Potcha train. And one year, early in the summer, they went and dumped a bunch of dirt on top of it. Just didn't try and build up the levee, just added foot and a half of dirt on the top of it. So the next police cruiser after they did that, that road along the levee just smashed all that dirt and it went tumbling down the levee. And I thought to myself, I really should write a letter to the paper saying if they don't really address these levees properly, it's going to be absolutely catastrophic.

A few months later, Katrina hits and floods the city and I think, damn, I would've looked really smart at the time, but it was exactly that. It was complacency. Nothing had hit for 40 years, almost 40 years. We never had a big hurricane that really threatened the city. So people got complacent. And coincidentally, that's about the same kind of timeframe that we're looking at since the late '70s and the early '80s and that crisis.

When you needed a Paul Volcker to come in and really just throw a deluge of water on the fire of inflation, now they can't do that because back then, of course, Volcker was in a situation where the debt was 35% of GDP. Now it's closer to 135% of GDP, and you just don't have the toolbox. You can't raise rates anywhere near those levels, even to normalized levels because of the cost of servicing the debt once you do that, and the tremendous leverage of rate increases to the debt. So yeah, I think Warsh could and might do one quarter point hike to show face with Trump's approval, but a campaign of rate hikes, it's just impossible now.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah, I agree completely. And you talk about complacency. I remember back 2006, 2007, that's exactly what we saw. Everything's fine. Subprime is contained. No problem, nothing to see here. Even in 2008, people were saying that kind of stuff, and of course we all know how that panned out. I've got an investment question that gets thrown at me a lot, and I'm curious of how you would respond to people who say this, because I think this is kind of the conventional thinking. Interest rates are clearly going up. The bond market is struggling. We have yields going up on the long end of the curve. Higher yields are negative for gold because gold is a non-yielding asset. So therefore, anytime we think that inflation may increase, the Fed may increase interest rates. We're going to sell our gold and silver because interest rates are going to be higher and we want to have bonds.

What is wrong with this conventional thinking in this day and age in your opinion, if anything?

Maybe that's the right move. I don't think so.

Brien Lundin: Yeah. Well, it's wrong in any day and age. I mean, you look at some of the periods when gold rose much the strongest, some of the strongest bull market runs of gold since really the gold market began in 1971 as an investible asset in ‘74 in the US. You look at some of the strongest runs that gold went on, and they were typically during a period of rising interest rates, rising yields. In the '70s, it was because yields were rising to combat inflation, but yields couldn't keep up with inflation, and therefore gold rose with inflation until the rate increases finally killed it off. Today, you see yields and gold rising for the same reasons, because debt and deficits are starting to matter. They've gotten so large, so ominous that in the crisis is now seemingly so much nearer that bond vigilantes are gold bucks today and they're buying for the same reasons.

So, that is higher yields typically events either economic strength and/or tighter monetary policy to whatever extent the Fed can actually control or influence the longer end of the curve. Today, they can't raise rates for those reasons, but rates are rising in a free market environment because of the problem with the debt and deficits. So yeah, it is not rising or yields aren't rising for the same reason as we've seen often in the past. And what's interesting is that it's not just the US. You look at sovereign bond yields across the world and without exception, they're all going from lower left to upper right in a very steep fashion. So it is not just… and I've never been one to say it's the dollar, the dollar, the dollar. It is all fiat currencies. We're all in the same boat. All the currencies are racing to the bottom of the hill at varying rates.

Some surge into the lead, some fall back, some are gaining the lead. That's why the dollar index to me, for my purposes, is meaningless. It's the dollar gold index to me, the price of gold that really tells the story.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah. All the dollar index tells you is which fiat currency is the cleanest dirty shirt in the laundry. I'll take some nice shiny clean gold over any of those dollar paper currency, not dollar paper currencies, but fiat paper currencies anytime of the day. I saw an analyst the other day that in effect, he called for or forecast a forever market in gold. Now he didn't say that. What he said was that he thought we'd be in a bull market in gold until governments get their debt situation and their spending under control. And I read that and said, "Oh, that's forever because that's not going to happen." Do you think that's a reasonable way to put it or is that crazy talk?

Brien Lundin: No, I don't think it's crazy talk. I think there'll be an underlying macro trend that will be supportive of gold, but the technical definition of a gold bull market, I don't think we'll be so fortunate to enjoy the kind of market we had for the first 18 months of this market where central banks were buying hand over fists of Western investors and the algos weren't really involved. So our only corrections were resolved in terms of time and not price. We just traded sideways and then bammo! it took off again. That was a real luxury at the time. So, I don't think we're going to enjoy that. I think now that Western investors are playing in our sandbox again and the Algos are taking control, they're going to read Federal Reserve statements, they're going to look at what Warsh says. And if he mentions he took a hike in the woods, they're going to sell everything.

Mike Maharrey: He's on a hike!

Brien Lundin: Yeah, exactly. So yeah, we're going to have the wiggles on the line. We will have technical corrections, but I completely agree with the sentiment that until there's a resolution of the Fiat currency problem or human nature after a million years or so suddenly changes, then yeah, we're going to have a wind beneath our wings for gold and silver and the associated assets.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah, I agree with you. And of course, in any bull market, it never goes up in a straight line anyway. There's always corrections and ups and downs. And I agree also that we could see significantly more volatility as we go down the road because of exactly what you say. We're so headline driven, right? Every time somebody blows a kiss in the desert in Iran or something, the markets move on that. But looking at that long-term trend, and I say this all the time, one thing we can count on, we can't count on a lot in the world, especially when it comes to economics and finance, but one thing we can count on is that next year the dollar will be worth less than it was at the beginning of the year. That's just the reality. That's the plan, right? 2% inflation, that means devalue the currency by at least 2% every single year.

So, I think people forget that sometimes.

Brien Lundin: Yeah, you're exactly right. And 2% is still significant, and we know that it's more than that underlying. And that's why people ask me, should I buy gold? After this big run, can I afford to buy gold right now? And I ask them if I don't know what their personal situation is, I say, "Well, do you own precious metals? Do you have a significant portion of your wealth in physical metals?" And if they say no, then I say, "Well, the question at that point is, can you afford not to?" Because if you have dollars sitting in a bank, you have to expect that those dollars are going to be in three years’ worth 10, 20, maybe 30% less than they are today. Whereas gold over broad swaths of history has always protected against that kind of depreciation. Now you can cherry-pick your endpoints along the line to try and disprove that, but over long periods of history, gold and silver have always protected against that.

But there are other things. If you invested in the mining stocks, you have to recognize you're in a bull trend. But when you're in a bull market, there are a few lessons you need to remember. And the first is buy the dips. If you're in a bull market, buy the dips. And concurrently, when the market gets really frothy like it did in January, you need to skim some of that froth off of the market and remember to do that. I mean, in gold newsletter, we have so many multi-baggers in our portfolio. And this issue, we had a 20 bagger that I'm telling people, listen, I have to tell you, I think in a year or two it's going to be trading much higher, but you got to take some froth off the market. You really do.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah, it makes sense. It really requires kind of a calm your mind, look objectively, look at the long term, look at the underlying dynamics. And it's hard in this world where we are so headline driven. And again, just the slightest movement of some headline on X can move markets and you have to have the discipline to resist those knee-jerk reactions and instead focus on that plan and on those fundamental things. Yeah,

Brien Lundin: Absolutely.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah. Is there anything, we talked about the interest rate in the feds, that's obvious things, and of course the war headlines. Are there anything else right now that has particularly got your attention relating to the gold market that you're kind of watching that maybe folks that are paying more attention to Fox Business or CNBC maybe are missing?

Brien Lundin: Yeah. What I've been telling people is that that market in January and then even it recovered and then later in February, that market was so frothy that it was going to trip over itself at some point. We were going to have a correction driven by speculation by the Algos and other Western traders. But that said, that fairly long correction, the longest and the first world serious one that we've had in this bull market, gold was kept in check for two reasons. One being the supposedly hawkish stance of the Fed under Warsh, and two, the war with Iran. And both of those in my mind are temporary. They're going to go away. So that's why I was very bullish over the longer term, even in the midst of that correction. The other thing that over the last month or so that I'm thinking is something I really don't know what it is, but that gold and again bonds seem to be sniffing out something ahead.

Something that's going to precipitate the next big crisis that's going to bring the central banks led by the Fed in another massive rescue effort with huge, huge doses of liquidity and easing. And I don't know what that is. Typically, these things come out of left field. The bubbles are easy to see, in this case, the US stock market assuredly, but the pins that pop those bubbles tend to come out of left field and something we really weren't considering and not very many people were considering. But again, timing, the fact that it seems like something's coming up, that gold and bonds are seeing that the situation is getting pretty extreme. I think that's a signal we really need to listen to.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah. Yeah. I think you make a really good point. I always think back to 2018, 2019, which is a little slice of financial history that I don't think a lot of people really remember or made much of a big deal out of it because it was overwhelmed by COVID just a few months later. But if you'll recall, and folks listening might recall, in October of 2018, there was a big stock market crash. The Fed that December announced that they were done with their tightening and they actually went back to quantitative easing and cut rates I think three times in 2019 before COVID. So it was kind of the same thing. It was like the markets are sniffing something out here. Now, I don't think it was. Obviously they didn't know a pandemic was coming ostensibly, but the markets did know that there was shakiness, and I think that was the result of all the monetary malfeasance from 2008 that was kind of coming to a head. And in a way, I think COVID was a little bit of a reprieve for the central bankers because they were able to double down, triple down on quantitative easing, on liquidity and kind of rescue the economy proactively from the 2008 malfeasance.

Brien Lundin: Yeah, and blame it on some…

Mike Maharrey: Yeah, go ahead.

Brien Lundin: And shift the blame on something out of their control when the situation was in fact largely resulting from the bubbles that they themselves blew up through their rescue efforts. Yeah, in the very last day or so of August and going into September of 2019, the Fed began another episode of quantitative easing and they vehement They denied it was quantitative easing because they weren't buying all across the curve. So, they left one or two points of the curve untouched. But it was, they did about $500 billion worth of QE in September of that year. And they weren't predicting COVID, but I think you make a good point. They saw shakiness in the market in that situation, the repo market. They needed to add some liquidity to the markets because things had gotten a bit extreme. And in their eyes, as you imply, thank God for COVID because we can blame somebody else on that.

Mike Maharrey: And here's a dirty little secret that I've been harping on for a while now. The Fed is running quantitative easing now. Shhhh. Don't tell anybody. Of course they won't call it that, but go look at the balance sheet folks, you will see that the balance sheet is increasing. They are buying bonds and they're buying them with money created out of thin air. You can call it whatever you want. I think they like to term it is we're just keeping the plumbing of the financial system clean. So Drano, but don't drink the Drano because it'll kill you.

Brien Lundin: Stanley Druckenmiller made the point very well in that now infamous Wall Street Journal op-ed when he criticized Bessant for his actions and they are trying to control the market. They're not providing liquidity. There was ample liquidity. And in fact, that was costing the treasury more because they were buying back bonds at lower interest rates than they were immediately reissuing to the market at higher rates. So, it really did not make any sense whatsoever and was again sending a signal of desperation to the markets and a signal that they were inclined and willing to fiddle around along the curve on yields.

Mike Maharrey: So we've got all of this craziness going on. I would say this would be a really good time to educate yourself and a great place to do that would be the New Orleans Investment Conference, which is coming up in less than two months. Tell us about that, Brien.

Brien Lundin: Well, coincidentally, Mike, I agree with you completely on that.

Mike Maharrey: That was a pretty smooth transition too, you have to admit.

Brien Lundin: That was a big fat ball right over the plate and I appreciate that. I hope I can now hit it out of the park, but I won't go through our speaker list because I'm going to forget somebody and I don't have it in front of me, but our business model is provide value that far exceeds anything else you're going to get in the market. If you look at our speaker list, I tell people you might see three or four of our speakers at some other conference, but you're not going to find 40. And that's exactly what you get here at this event. So we provide tremendous value by far the best you'll find anywhere out in any other conference. It's really a lot of fun to come to New Orleans for this event. It's an intellectual ambiance that is unmatched, that has to be experienced to be understood.

And I really urge people to go to our website and check out our speaker list because it's the speakers, it's the attendees that share their ideas that are really, really smart people. If they weren't really smart, they wouldn't be coming to this event. And it's the timing. If in this kind of a market, in this kind of a metals and mining bull market that I believe is going to eventually be the best we've ever experienced, the most rewarding for those positioned in it, you really can't afford not to be in New Orleans. I mean, we have five decades of history that show that if you go to New Orleans in a market like this, well, you're going to be really, really happy over the next year because all of the biggest winners in junior mining, not all, but the vast majority of the biggest winners are going to be in our exhibit hall at this conference.

Brien Lundin: And that's a tremendous opportunity as well. Our exhibit hall sold out, our hotel will be sold out. It's a matter of time and it's going to be much sooner this year than ever before. And registrations are flowing in at a faster pace than we've seen in decades. So I would advise people to not only check it out, but also act very quickly to reserve your place because it's coming up soon. It's hurtling toward me as I speak. And it will be in a situation this year where if you don't get in soon, you may not be able to attend at all or at least not attend conveniently. So please check out our website and register. And you also save hundreds of dollars right now from the cost of as we get closer to the event.

Mike Maharrey: What's that website?

Brien Lundin: NewOrleansconference.com. Very easy.

Mike Maharrey: And it's Halloween weekend this year, which New Orleans Halloween weekend, that's kind of fun in and of itself.

Brien Lundin: Yeah, it is a bucket list experience. And I do want to comfort people that if everything is recorded, every presentation, every panel, every workshop is video recorded, you'll have full access to everything. And we're adjusting our schedule this year. We usually end with a big flourish with some really bigger name speakers, but we're moving them earlier in the schedule this year. And so if you have to leave early to go trick or treating with your kids or grandkids, you won't miss as much and you can get it all on video. And we're also going to close with a metals and mining masquerade ball. So we encourage costuming. And New Orleans on Halloween is, again, something that you really want to experience at least once in your life.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah, absolutely. Well, that'd be a blast. Before I go, let folks know where they can find the newsletter and follow you and avail themselves to the information that you provide on a regular basis.

Brien Lundin: Goldnewsletter.com and neworleansconference.com. And you can follow me on X at Brien, B-R-I-E-N_Lundin, L-U-N-D-I-N.

Mike Maharrey: That is outstanding and I appreciate you. I know that the conference is hurtling as you said, so I appreciate you taking a little time out of your day. I'm glad we got to have you on before the conference so folks can be reminded if they haven't already signed up. Well, we really encourage you to consider going. It's a great experience and you'll have the opportunity to rub shoulders with, as you said, a lot of really smart people and hopefully you'll go home smarter too. So thanks for being on the show today and hanging out with me, and we'll definitely have you back on again, and we appreciate all that you do.

Brien Lundin: Always a pleasure, Mike. Anytime.

Wonderful insights from Brien Lundin and we thoroughly enjoyed having him back on, and we hope folks will plan to attend the New Orleans Investment Conference, coming up at the end of next month. For information there again just go to https://neworleansconference.com/"; target="_blank" rel="noopener noopner">NewOrleansConference.com.

Well, that will do it for this week. Be sure to check back next Friday for our next Weekly Market Wrap Podcast. And don’t miss our second weekly podcast, the Money Metals Midweek Memo available each Wednesday. To check out any of our audio programs just visit https://www.moneymetals.com/podcasts";>MoneyMetals.com/podcasts or find them on places like Spotify, Apple Podcasts Google Podcasts or wherever you listen to your favorite podcasts. And as a big help to us we would ask you to please like, subscribe, download and rate our podcasts. Doing so helps us extend the reach of this material.

Until next time, this has been Mike Gleason with https://www.moneymetals.com/";>Money Metals Exchange, thanks for listening and have a wonderful weekend everybody.

If Rats Can Eat Your Money, It's Probably Not Good Money

Fri, 04 Sep 2026 00:00:00 EST

This is the perfect story that contrasts the value of real money – gold and silver – with the paper stuff your government tries to pass off as money.

A Dutch homeowner digging in his backyard found more than 40 pounds of 1,000-year-old silver. Meanwhile, piles of cash stashed in fields and stuffed into walls a couple of decades ago got moldy and chewed up by rats.

Viking Silver

The silver horde discovered in Denmark consisted of around 700 objects from the Viking era, including bars, coins, and jewelry. The items are in remarkably good condition, considering they’ve been buried for around 1,000 years.

https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/dutch-treasure.jpeg"; width="500" height="281" class="mx-auto p-3" alt="" />

Photo courtesy of North Jutland Museums

https://www.livescience.com/archaeology/vikings/biggest-surprise-of-my-life-homeowner-discovers-denmarks-largest-viking-age-silver-hoard-in-their-backyard"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">According to Live Science, all the silver bars, along with some of the bracelets and silver fragments, can be sorted into specific weight groups. This indicates that the collection represented an “important storage of wealth,” not just a random assortment of silver objects.

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"The treasure so clearly shows how silver functioned as wealth and a means of payment in the Viking Age. It's like finding a safe from the Viking Age," North Jutland Museums cultural heritage manager Torben Sarauw said.

It’s notable that 1,000 years later, that wealth still exists and is worth every bit as much as it was back in its day.

In fact, based on the purity of comparable Viking-era Danish silver (around 94 percent), the 18.5-kilogram hoard contains roughly 559 troy ounces of pure silver. At the https://www.moneymetals.com/silver-price";>current spot price, the melt value is over $37,000.

So, here’s a question for you to ponder over a cup of coffee. What would happen to $37,000 in U.S. paper currency buried in the ground for 1,000 years? Would it still be worth $37,000?

We kind of know the answer to that question because people have tried it.

Turns out paper buried in the ground or stuffed in walls doesn’t hold up very well.

Billion-Dollar Rat Food

In the late 1980s and early ‘90s, Pablo Escobar was one of the richest men in the world. Forbes featured him on its list of international billionaires for seven straight years from 1987 to 1993.

Escobar made his billions the old-fashioned way.

Selling drugs.

In his day, Escobar’s Medellín cartel supplied around 80 percent of the world’s cocaine.

Roberto Escobar served as Pablo’s accountant. In his autobiography, he said the cartel brought in so much cash that it couldn’t launder the money fast enough. Cartel members resorted to stashing currency inside dilapidated warehouses, farm fields, and inside the walls of their homes.

Roberto said the cartel simply wrote off $2.1 billion per month in lost or destroyed cash.

"Pablo was earning so much that each year we would write off 10 percent of the money because the rats would eat it in storage or it would be damaged by water or lost."

I’m just going to note here that rats don’t eat silver or gold.

Pablo’s nephew Nicholas Escobar confirmed the story, saying he found $18 million in cash stuffed inside the walls of an apartment once used by the cartel. Of course, many of the bank notes were damaged and unusable.

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“The smell was astonishing. A smell 100 times worse than something that had died,” Nicholas said.

I’ll also note that silver and gold don’t stink when they’re left inside a wall.

Rats weren’t the only rodents eating away Pablo’s fortune. Politicians in Washington, D.C., were stealing his wealth through relentless currency debasement.

For the sake of argument, let’s say Pablo sealed $37,000 in cash in a wall back in 1990. If somebody stumbled upon that little horde today, it would only buy about $14,117 worth of stuff.

In other words, the purchasing power of that money plunged by nearly 62 percent in less than 40 years.

That is assuming the animal rats didn’t get to it first.

One of Aristotle’s four characteristics of good money is durability. In other words, money must stand the test of time. It can’t break down, rot, or corrode easily.

And it probably shouldn’t be edible by rats.

Paper fiat dollars fail this test miserably.

Viking silver, on the other hand…

The Gold-Silver Ratio Remains Relevant Today and Other Silver News

Fri, 04 Sep 2026 00:00:00 EST

Despite some analysts claiming it’s a relic of the past, a recent study found https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/07/18/gold-silver-ratio-widening-again-indicating-bullish-setup-for-silver-005080";>the gold-silver ratio remains a relevant technical indicator and is still useful for forecasting the silver market's trajectory.

The study was featured in the latest edition of the Silver Institute’s Silver News report, along with reports covering recent advances in silver technology and the silver market.

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The gold-silver ratio tells you how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold given the current spot prices of both metals. In other words, it tells you the price of gold in ounces of silver.

According to the study, the gold-silver ratio tends to revert to a mean of around 60-1.

In other words, when the gold-silver ratio rises well above its historical average, it signals that silver is underpriced relative to gold and there is a strong possibility that silver will go on a bull run to close that gap. Conversely, when the ratio drops significantly below 60-1, it will revert to the mean with a silver selloff or gold price surge.

The gold-silver ratio currently sits at around 67-1.

According to the Silver Institute, “The tendency for the gold-silver ratio cyclically to rise above and fall below its long-run equilibrium has not changed. Therefore, even if in future the outcomes will be skewed higher by the structural change supported by heavy official sector gold demand, dips well below equilibrium will also occur.”

Based on the data, when the gold-silver ratio rises roughly 20 percent above its mean, it will eventually move back, often very quickly overshooting the average in the process.

For instance, the gold-silver ratio fell to 30-1 in 2011 after rising to over 80-1 during the money creation of the Great Recession in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis.

Then in 2020, the gold-silver ratio set a record of 123-1 as COVID hysteria gripped the world and then plunged to around 60-1 as central banks around the world cranked up the money-creation machine to cope with governments shutting down economies.

According to the Silver Institute, the ratio of above-ground gold to silver bullion stocks acts in tandem with the ratio of gold-silver investment demand.

“The report noted that recently the higher gold price has been powered by official-sector net sales or purchases that have pushed the gold-silver ratio above the long-run 60-1 ratio. Nonetheless, the ratio is still expected to revert to the mean of about 60 to 1.”

The Silver Institute also reported some interesting technological developments in the world of silver.

Silver has replaced silver in a process used to separate ethylene from propane. The old process carried the risk of an explosion. Researchers at Hanyang University in South Korea found that they can replace silver ions with metallic silver nanoparticles. This form of silver is more stable and less likely to react with chemicals such as acetylene, lowering the risk of explosion.
Doctors have discovered that nanosilver can help to measure the correct medication dosages for individual patients. Nanosilver is often used in biological sensors because it can naturally boost the weak reflected light-wave signals coming from drug molecules. These signals have unique signatures that tell laser-powered readers how much and what kind of drug is present. Along with determining a drug’s best dosages and possible side effects, this approach has additional benefits. It replaces slow lab work because this light-based method is not only fast but can be done at a patient’s bedside.
Applying Silver Diamine Fluoride (SDF) to children’s teeth has been shown to prevent cavities; however, it can leave dark stains. New research suggests that ‘nanosilver fluoride’ (NSF) might be just as effective without staining. According to a report in the journal BMC Oral Health, “Incorporating silver nanoparticles, NSF, retains the advantageous preventive; this method often leaves dark stains on youngsters’ teeth."
Can you smell silver? No. Pure silver and sterling have no odor. However, if you sniff a silver object, the smell indicates whether it is pure. “If you smell metal, like copper, which has a distinct odor, then the item in question is not pure silver. Zinc, brass, and steel have their own particular smells. Even if an item has a thin layer of silver coating, the underlying metal will usually still give off a metallic scent, suggesting that it is not pure silver.”
Engineers from the College of Design and Engineering at the National University of Singapore have developed technology that could lead to more flexible and durable wearable sensors. The soft, stretchable substrate repairs itself, firmly grips metal conductors, and can be remolded or broken down after use. In tests, silver films for electrodes that pick up heart and muscle signals adhered three times more strongly to their substrate than other substances used to conduct electricity.
The sun may contain 55 percent more silver than astronomers previously believed. Of course, scientists cannot collect samples from the sun to measure the amount of silver it contains, but they can estimate the sun’s composition by studying the light waves it emits. Every element has a unique wavelength, but the researchers came up short on silver when it came to reconciling the higher amount they saw in stuff that fell from space. According to Swedish researchers using a supercomputer, the sun’s rays – unbeknownst to astronomers – distorted the specific light waves that told them how much silver was present.

Central Banks Piled in More Gold in July

Thu, 03 Sep 2026 00:00:00 EST

Central banks continued to accumulate gold in July, adding a net 23 tonnes to the collective reserves.

Year to date, central banks have accumulated an additional 130 tonnes of gold, about 30 tonnes less than through the same period last year. The primary difference between 2025 and 2026 is that there has been more selling this year.

The Gold Buyers

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The People’s Bank of China was the biggest buyer in July, increasing its official reserves by 20 tonnes. It was the 22^nd straight month of reported gold buying, raising official Chinese reserves to 2,366 tonnes. That makes up about 8 percent of the country’s total reserves.

So far this year, the PBoC has increased its officially reported gold holdings by 60 tonnes.

Notice the emphasis on "official."

China is among the central banks that are likely to hold significantly more gold than they publicly disclose. As Jan Nieuwenhuijs has reported, the People's Bank of China is secretly buying large amounts of gold off the books. According to https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/04/02/chinas-gold-reserves-going-through-the-roof-003956";>data parsed by the renowned Money Metals researcher, the Chinese central bank is currently sitting on more than 5,000 tonnes of monetary gold located in Beijing – more than TWICE what has been publicly admitted.

The mainstream is finally taking notice. Last month, https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/07/25/goldman-sachs-picks-up-on-chinas-secret-gold-reserve-expansion-005095";>Goldman Sachs picked up on China’s undisclosed purchases, and analysts at BMO Capital estimated that https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/07/30/could-chinas-gold-reserves-surpass-the-us-within-five-years-005101";>Chinese gold reserves could surpass the U.S.’s within five years.

Poland ranks as the top gold buyer so far this year, after adding another 8 tonnes to its holdings in July. So far in 2026, the National Bank of Poland has increased its gold reserves by 90 tonnes. It now holds 640 tonnes of the yellow metal, making up roughly 28 percent of its total reserves.

Poland led central bank gold buying in 2025, adding 102 tonnes of gold to its holdings.

Late last year, the https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/01/23/poland-announces-plans-for-another-expansion-in-gold-reserves-004631";>National Bank of Poland issued a statement saying it plans to purchase up to 150 more tonnes of gold, raising its holdings to a maximum of 700 tonnes.

NBP Governor Adam Glapiński said the increase in gold reserves would elevate Poland to an “elite” status.

“This will place Poland among the elite 10 countries with the largest gold reserves in the world.”

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/05/19/poland-has-more-gold-than-the-european-central-bank-004053";>The Polish central bank already holds more gold than the European Central Bank. To put the country's gold reserves in context, the NBP only held 14 tonnes of gold in 1996.

The Czech Republic has been one of the most consistent gold buyers over the last few years. The trend continued in July with yet another 2-tonne purchase.

The Czechs have adopted a slow, steady approach, buying gold for 41 straight months. The country added 20 tonnes to its holdings last year and now holds 84 tonnes of gold. Czech officials say they plan to increase gold reserves to 100 tonnes by 2028.

Other central bank gold buyers last month were:

Kazakhstan – 1 tonne
Malaysia – 1 tonne
Bolivia – 1 tonne

The Gold Sellers

Russia continued to https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/07/23/russia-continues-to-sell-gold-to-support-its-economy-005087";>tap into its gold reserves as it copes with the impacts of economic sanctions and a wartime economy. The Central Bank of Russia reported another 6-tonne decline in its gold reserves in July.

Year-to-date, Russia has sold 50 tonnes of gold, decreasing its official reserves to 2,277 tonnes.

Turkey’s gold holdings dipped by another tonne in July. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey has divested itself of 85 tonnes of gold so far this year as it copes with a weak currency and the pressure of rising oil prices.

Turkey https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/03/27/turkey-sells-60-tonnes-of-gold-to-backstop-lira-004792";>sold a large amount of gold earlier this year to backstop the lira.

Uzbekistan flipped to selling in July, modestly reducing its reserves by 1 tonne after adding 9 tonnes of the yellow metal in both May and June.

The Uzbek central bank has increased its reserves by a net 40 tonnes year-to-date.

It is not unusual for central banks that buy from domestic sources, such as Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, to pivot back and forth between buying and selling.

According to the World Gold Council, Central Bank of Uzbekistan Governor Timur Ishmetov recently said that while “gold has turned out to be the best investment so far”, the central bank is looking at potential sales of gold at “favorable prices” as part of its overall reserve management plan.

Uzbekistan holds roughly 87 percent of its reserves in gold.

Jordan was also a gold seller in July, decreasing its reserves by 1 tonne.

The Big Picture

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Looking at the trends, central bank gold buying moderated in 2025 but remained far above the recent historical average. Official net full-year buying came in at 863.3 tonnes. That was down 21 percent year-on-year, charting the lowest level since 2021.

However, although central bank gold purchases declined last year, they remained well above the 2010-2021 annual average of 473 tonnes.

Last year was the fourth-largest expansion of central bank gold reserves on record. The all-time high was set in 2022 (1,136 tonnes). It was the highest level of net purchases on record, dating back to 1950, including since the suspension of dollar convertibility into gold in 1971.

The surging gold price was likely a factor in the slowing central bank gold accumulation. As the World Gold Council put it, the higher price prompted “a more cautious approach.”

“This highlights that central banks are not insensitive to price dynamics, even as their long-term strategic interest in gold remains firmly intact.”

In the latest https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/06/25/survey-central-bankers-plan-to-keep-stacking-gold-005007";>World Gold Council survey, central bankers overwhelmingly said they expect global gold reserves to continue to grow over the next 12 months. They seem to be putting their money where their mouths are. With prices moderating, it appears that several central banks are taking advantage of the recent correction to accumulate gold more quickly.

The Netherlands Moves Gold Out of North America Citing Geopolitical Risk

Thu, 03 Sep 2026 00:00:00 EST

The Netherlands moved approximately 86 tonnes of gold valued at over €10 billion from North America to London, citing “increasing geopolitical unrest” and a desire to “strengthen crisis preparedness.”

The country joins a growing list of countries moving gold out of the U.S to reduce https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/02/29/buy-gold-and-silver-to-hedge-against-counterparty-risk-003015";>counterparty risk.

According to a statement from De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB), it sold 59 tonnes of gold stored in New York and used the funds to purchase gold in London “that meets the international market standards.” It also physically moved more than 27 tonnes of gold from the U.S. and Canada to Zeist, simultaneously transferring a similar amount of gold from Zeist to London to avoid remelting bars.

“Combining the processes of buying and selling and physical transport has allowed DNB to spread the risks associated with such a complex physical gold relocation operation, while also ensuring efficiency and cost-consciousness.”

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The statement said the operation also served as crisis preparation.

“Moreover, experience of both approaches will be useful in the event that another relocation is required during a potential future crisis, and one of the two approaches proves impossible due to circumstances at the time. This also fits in with DNB’s efforts to increase its crisis preparedness.”

The Netherlands holds 612.4 tonnes of gold in its reserves. According to the DNB, about 18 percent of its gold remains in the U.S., with another 18 percent stored in Canada. Thirty-two percent of its gold reserves are now stored in London, with 31 percent stored within the country’s borders.

Based on the DNB’s statement, it’s clear that worries about access to its gold were a primary reason for the move.

“Gold that is held with the Bank of England must meet modern international trade standards and is regarded as the world's most easily tradable gold and will therefore be the most readily available for DNB in a crisis situation. The gold reserves held in New York and Ottawa cannot be utilized as quickly and directly in such a situation.”

A Broader Trend: We Don't Trust America

Notably, countries with historically friendly relations like the Netherlands are beginning to judge the U.S. as a political risk.

As the Financial Times reported, “The transfer follows calls from European politicians and taxpayer lobbyists to repatriate gold reserves from the U.S., warning that an unreliable American government under President Donald Trump may otherwise seize them amid growing transatlantic tensions.”

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/04/07/french-central-bank-sells-new-york-gold-replaces-it-with-gold-stored-in-paris-004819";>France completed a gold repatriation project earlier this year. The Banque de France (BdF) unloaded “non-standard” gold bars of varying purity and size that were stored in New York. The central bank used the proceeds to purchase new gold bars that meet international reserve standards for weight, purity, and certification. Think of it as exchanging “https://www.moneymetals.com/bullion/what-is-junk-silver";>junk silver” for pure .999 silver coins.

The upgraded gold will remain safely within French borders.

At the time, Metals Focus senior analyst Junlu Liang said these gold movements show how central banks are reassessing the role of gold in reserve management.

“In some countries, domestic political considerations have further strengthened calls to relocate gold holdings closer to home.”

There have also been calls for https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/01/25/german-officials-renew-calls-to-bring-gold-home-004637";>gold repatriation from German politicians spanning the political spectrum. The Bundesbank brought half of its gold home in 2013, moving 674 tonnes of gold from Paris and New York back to Germany. However, the Bundesbank still stores about one-third of its gold in New York vaults.

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Earlier this year, Emanuel Mönch, a leading German economist and former Bundesbank head of research, said it’s “too risky” to keep gold reserves in New York.

“Given the current geopolitical situation, it seems risky to store so much gold in the U.S. In the interest of greater strategic independence from the U.S., the Bundesbank would therefore be well-advised to consider repatriating the gold.”

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/05/31/india-brings-100-tons-of-gold-home-for-safe-keeping-003225";>India is another country aggressively repatriating its gold. In the spring of 2024, the Reserve Bank of India brought 100 tonnes of gold home, repatriating it from vaults in the UK. Over the last six months, the Indian central bank has repatriated another 104 tonnes.

Based on data from the Management of Foreign Exchange Reserves, India now has about 680 tonnes of its 880.52-tonne gold reserves (77 percent) stored within its borders. Approximately 197.67 tonnes remain stored in vaults at the Bank of England and the Bank for International Settlements.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/gold-storage-repatriation-from-england-give-our-bullion-back-india-wants-its-gold-under-own-lock-and-key/articleshow/130674895.cms";>According to the Economic Times of India, the https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/02/29/could-weaponization-of-the-dollar-as-a-foreign-policy-billy-club-accelerate-de-dollarization-003013";>weaponization of the dollar by the U.S. is one of the key factors driving gold repatriation, specifically aggressive sanctions levied on Russia after it invaded Ukraine and the freezing of Afghanistan’s reserves by Western powers.

“Those episodes, involving G7 countries restricting access to sovereign assets, have reshaped how central banks think about custody.”

According to the World Gold Council survey, the Bank of England remains the most popular overseas vaulting location. Fifty-seven percent of the central banks surveyed indicated they held some gold in the UK. That was down from 64 percent last year.

Domestic vaulting was the second-most popular option, with 49 percent expressing it as their preference.

The number of banks vaulting at least some gold in New York also dipped, falling from 17 percent last year to 14 percent before the Netherlands removed some of its gold.

The Fed’s No-Exit Ramp: Debt, Dollar Debasement, and the Case for Gold

Thu, 03 Sep 2026 00:00:00 EST

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh used his Jackson Hole speech last Friday to project a tough-on-inflation posture. But despite the market’s sharp reaction, the Fed has not changed policy—and Mike Maharrey argues that reality matters far more than the rhetoric.

In this episode of the Money Metals Midweek Memo, Maharrey compared the Fed’s predicament to missing an exit on a highway. The longer a driver is forced to keep going in the wrong direction, the more difficult and frustrating the eventual turnaround becomes. For central bankers, he said, the missing off-ramp is America’s massive debt burden.

Warsh has repeatedly emphasized price stability and a willingness to use interest rates to achieve the Fed’s mandate. Yet the federal funds rate has remained in a 3.5% to 3.75% range since December 2025.

Maharrey’s central question was straightforward… if inflation remains well above the Fed’s 2% target, why has the central bank continued to talk about rate hikes instead of actually delivering one?

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Jackson Hole Rattles Markets, But Policy Has Not Changed

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Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks were https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/31/fed-chair-warsh-runs-open-mouth-operations-at-jackson-hole-but-can-he-deliver-005173";>widely interpreted as hawkish. He said the Fed’s 2% price-stability target, measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, is “a firm, fixed target,” and stressed that short-term interest rates are the central bank’s predominant policy tool.

He also said inflation had cooled somewhat but that the data did not show underlying trends had “meaningfully improved.” Former Jerome Powell adviser and Johns Hopkins economist Jon Faust told the Associated Press that Warsh had conveyed he would support raising rates if necessary.

Markets responded immediately. Gold fell more than 3%, silver dropped more than 4%, the NASDAQ fell nearly 139 points, bonds sold off, Treasury yields moved higher, and the dollar weakened. Speculation resurfaced that the Fed could raise rates as soon as its September meeting.

But Maharrey emphasized that Warsh never explicitly said the Fed would hike rates, offered no timeline, and announced no policy change. The market, he argued, reacted to “open-mouth operations”—the Fed chair’s words—rather than a concrete move by the Federal Open Market Committee.

Forty Trillion Reasons to Avoid Higher Rates

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The obstacle to rate hikes, Maharrey argued, https://youtube.com/shorts/cg4bbtdLtgA?si=ODPy_p09aAhdPyQP"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">is the nearly $40 trillion national debt. Servicing that debt is already costing the federal government more than $1 trillion per year, leaving policymakers with little room to tolerate significantly higher borrowing costs.

Through July of fiscal 2026, federal spending totaled $6.28 trillion, a 3.3% increase from the same period a year earlier. Maharrey said the persistence of rising spending, despite political promises of cuts, shows that Washington has little appetite for meaningfully confronting the debt problem.

The Treasury has also tried to push down long-term borrowing costs https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/25/bessents-bond-market-intervention-juices-debasement-trade-boosts-gold-005161";>through bond-market intervention, Maharrey noted, but those efforts have not produced the desired result. Meanwhile, the government’s debt is only one part of a much larger debt overhang that includes heavily indebted consumers, high credit-card interest rates, leveraged corporations, and strains in private credit.

That creates a policy trap. The Fed may need higher rates to restrain inflation, but it also needs lower rates to keep the debt-ridden economy from cracking. In Maharrey’s view, genuinely tight policy could expose the fragility of an economy reliant on easy money.

He argued that this leaves the Fed with a difficult choice. A rate hike could push the economy toward a deep recession or a financial crisis. A rate cut, by contrast, would likely encourage more inflation and further dollar devaluation. Maharrey said he believes a cut is more likely than a hike during this cycle, although he acknowledged that Warsh could still choose to follow through on his hawkish language.

The Debasement Trade and a Potentially Long Gold Bull Market

Short-term price moves in gold and silver can be driven by https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/29/peter-krauth-sees-silver-reaching-80-to-85-before-year-end-005171";>war headlines, oil-price volatility, and shifting expectations about Fed policy. Maharrey urged investors to look past that noise and focus on the underlying fundamentals - mounting debt, currency debasement, and a gradual move away from the dollar.

He cited Ned Davis Research Chief Alternative Strategist John LaForge, who said https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/09/01/a-forever-gold-bull-market-005174";>gold prices could continue rising until governments learn how to deal with their debt problems. “The longer we let it go, and we don’t pay this stuff back, and we keep piling all these debts up, the higher gold prices can go,” LaForge said in a recent Kitco News interview.

LaForge said he sees multiple years of higher prices ahead because global political leaders do not appear willing to address the debt problem. He also described gold as one of the few “bearer assets” that can be held outside the credit system—an asset without a counterparty that must perform or avoid default.

Maharrey said that distinction helps explain why central banks have continued accumulating gold. A gold bar is widely recognized as payment across borders and financial systems, while national currencies carry the added complication of exchange rates, political risk, and issuer credibility.

LaForge also said gold may be entering the early stages of a broader commodity “super cycle.” Maharrey agreed, arguing that the primary long-term driver is not that gold itself is becoming more expensive, but that government currencies are buying less over time.

A Million Dollars Does Not Buy What It Used To

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To https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/28/winning-1-million-isnt-what-it-once-was-005169";>illustrate the effects of inflation, Maharrey turned to the game show Who Wants to Be a Millionaire?, which first aired in August 1999 with Regis Philbin as host. The show remains on the air today, now hosted by Jimmy Kimmel, but the meaning of its $1 million prize has changed considerably.

According to figures cited in the episode, the United States had roughly 7.64 million millionaires by net worth in 1999. By 2025, that number had climbed to 23.6 million. Yet Maharrey argued that the increase does not necessarily mean Americans are three times more prosperous.

Instead, he said purchasing power has eroded so much that it now takes roughly $2 million to buy what $1 million could have bought when the show debuted. Under the Fed’s 2% inflation target, a dollar loses at least 10% of its purchasing power every five years, and that loss compounds over time.

Maharrey’s conclusion was that inflation is not a temporary accident but an embedded feature of the modern monetary system. The government can create dollars, but it cannot create gold or silver. That is why, he argued, precious metals remain a useful hedge against persistent https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/27/gold-and-silver-surge-as-the-debasement-trade-returns-005164";>currency debasement, debt accumulation, and the policy choices likely to follow.

Gold and silver may face volatile pullbacks, particularly when markets anticipate higher rates. But Maharrey said both potential paths for the Fed remain supportive for metals over the long term. If the Fed cuts, the result could be more inflation and a weaker dollar. If it hikes and damages the debt-heavy economy, the eventual response could still be renewed easing, stimulus, and monetary expansion.

Capped Bust Quarter - Large Diameter vs. Small Diameter Types and John Reich's Design - 1823/2 Overdate, Proof-Only 1827, and Value by Type - Money Metals

Wed, 02 Sep 2026 00:00:00 EST

The Capped Bust quarter is a famous, historic silver coin in early American history. The coin series ran from 1815 to 1838 and has appealed to coin collectors ever since. It reflects a time when the United States was still building its economy and refining its coinage. The coin was designed by German-born engraver John Reich. It introduced a fresh look that replaced the earlier Draped Bust design. This earlier design ran for over two decades.

Today, collectors value the Capped Bust quarter for far more than their silver content. Several issues of this coin survived in low numbers. Some of their dates are among the most challenging coins to find in early U.S. quarter designs. The coin’s variations, including differences in size, edge design, die varieties, and strike quality also makes the series appealing to specialists.

Collectible coins like the Capped Bust quarter are prized for far more than their silver content. Factors such as originality, condition, rarity, and historical significance often have a greater effect on value than silver prices alone.

This guide explains the history of the Capped Bust quarter, its design, key dates, major varieties, grading standards, and current market values. You'll also learn how to identify authentic examples, avoid common pitfalls, and build a collection that fits your goals and budget.

Specifications & Design of the Capped Bust Quarter

The Capped Bust quarter was struck first in 89.2% silver and 10.8% copper. Later, its composition changed to 90% silver and 10% copper. This alloy became the standard for the majority of coins for most of American coinage history.

Each coin contains approximately 0.1933 troy ounces of pure silver, making its bullion value only one part of its overall worth. Today, collector demand, rarity, and condition usually have a much greater impact on price than silver content alone.

Capped Bust quarter specifications

Specification	Large Diameter Type	Small Diameter Type
Years issued	1815–1828	1831–1838
Denomination	25 cents	25 cents
Composition	89.2% silver and 10.8% copper	89.2% silver and 10.8% copper through 1836; 90% silver and 10% copper in 1837–1838
Standard weight	6.74 grams	6.74 grams through 1836; approximately 6.68 grams in 1837–1838
Approximate pure silver content	0.1933 troy ounces	0.1933 troy ounces
Diameter	About 27.5 millimeters	About 24.3 millimeters
Edge	Reeded	Reeded
Designer	John Reich	John Reich design modified by William Kneass
Mint	Philadelphia Mint	Philadelphia Mint
Mint mark	None	None

The Capped Bust quarter took its design from John Reich, a German immigrant and engraver. The United States Mint hired him in 1807, and eight years later he had the opportunity to fashion this coin. He replaced the previous Draped Bust design with a portrait that looked more natural and distinctly American. Reich’s work appeared on several denominations and helped modernize the nation’s coinage during the early nineteenth century.

The obverse features Liberty facing left with a soft cloth cap, often called a Phrygian cap or liberty cap. The portrait features thirteen stars surrounding it, imagery meant to represent the original thirteen colonies. The date appears below Liberty’s portrait. Her hair falls naturally beneath the cap, giving the design a more realistic appearance than its predecessor.

The reverse displays a heraldic eagle with a shield across its chest. The eagle holds an olive branch in one talon and a bundle of arrows in the other. The olive branch is a classical symbol of peace, while the arrows represent military strength. Taken together, they represent a nation desirous of peace but willing to fight. Surrounding the eagle is the inscription UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, while the coin’s denomination 25 C. appears below.

It’s easy to mistake a Capped Bust quarter for a Draped Bust. However, upon closer inspection, several differences between the two designs stand out.

Reich’s Liberty design has softer facial features and a simpler hairstyle. These details replaced the sharper features and more regal hairstyle designed by Robert Scot, the Draped Bust designer. The reverse is also less crowded, giving the eagle a stronger and more balanced appearance.

Collectors should also note that the series includes two distinct formats. Quarters struck from 1815 through 1828 have a larger diameter and a lettered edge. Those produced from 1831 through 1838 feature a smaller diameter with a reeded edge. The changes occurred because of improvements in minting technology. The differing sizes and edges give collectors a convenient way of distinguishing the two design types.

History of the Capped Bust Quarter

The history of the Capped Bust quarter begins during a challenging period for the young United States. In the early 1800s, the nation was still developing its financial system, and the United States Mint struggled to produce enough silver coins for everyday commerce.

As the nation struggled to stabilize its economy, gold and silver coinage often disappeared from circulation. The metal value often rose beyond the face value of coins, which led to hoarding. Hoarders often sold the coins abroad or melted them down for a profit. The result was that merchants and shopkeepers had a shortage of change, which discouraged everyday commerce.

Conditions worsened during the War of 1812. Trade disruptions limited the supply of precious metals reaching the Mint, while economic uncertainty encouraged people to hoard silver coins instead of spending them.

As a result, the United States government stopped quarter dollar production after 1807. The denomination would not return until 1815, making the Capped Bust quarter the first quarter struck after the war.

When production resumed, the Mint also introduced a fresh design. The earlier Draped Bust quarter, created by Chief Engraver Robert Scot, had served the nation for more than a decade. By 1807, however, Mint officials wanted a more modern appearance that better reflected the growing republic.

The task fell to John Reich, a German-born engraver who joined the Mint in 1807. Reich had trained in Europe before immigrating to the United States.

Mint Director Robert Patterson believed Reich’s artistic skills could improve the appearance of American coinage. His prediction proved correct. Not only did Reich redesign the quarter, but he also redesigned the half cent, half dollar, dime, and other denominations.

His portrait of Liberty departed from the formal style of the Draped Bust design. Instead of an idealized figure, Reich created a more natural-looking Liberty wearing a cloth cap, often called a liberty cap or Phrygian cap. The reverse also changed. While it retained the heraldic eagle introduced on earlier coins, Reich simplified the composition to create a cleaner, more balanced design.

Although collectors often associate the Capped Bust quarter with a single design, the series actually includes two distinct types. Quarters struck from 1815 through 1828 are known as the Large Diameter type. They measure about 27.5 millimeters across and were produced using older open-collar technology. Because each blank had to be fed into the press by hand, striking quality often varied, and many coins show uneven details.

The Mint adopted improved equipment in the early 1830s. Beginning in 1831, the Capped Bust quarter was reduced to 24.3 millimeters in diameter. The Mint’s new equipment produced coins with more consistent shapes and sharper details. It also produced a uniform reeded edge across all of its quarters.

These improvements mattered because they made counterfeiting operations more difficult. They made it harder for counterfeiters to clip or alter coins after they left the Mint.

The Capped Bust quarter remained in production until 1838. That year, Christian Gobrecht’s https://www.moneymetals.com/coin/seated-liberty-quarter";>Liberty Seated design replaced it. During its 24-year run, the Capped Bust quarter reflected major changes in American coinage. The series also saw advances in minting technology that improved coin quality and consistency.

Today, collectors and numismatic enthusiasts regard the Capped Bust quarter as a symbol of change in American history. The series connects collectors to the nation’s recovery after the War of 1812 and technological improvements that shaped American coinage for decades to come.

Large Diameter vs. Small Diameter Capped Bust quarter

Although collectors often refer to the Capped Bust quarter as a single coin series, it actually consists of two distinct types. The Large Diameter type was struck from 1815 through 1828, while the Small Diameter type was produced from 1831 through 1838.

At first glance, the designs appear nearly identical. Upon closer examination, though, the coins reveal crucial differences in size, manufacturing, and strike quality. Taken together, those differences represent a significant improvement in overall coin performance.

Practically speaking, the transition from the Large Diameter to the Small Diameter type reflected more than a simple design update. It represented a significant improvement in the way the United States Mint produced coins. Advances in machinery allowed the Mint to strike more consistent coins and also make them more resistant to counterfeiting and clipping.

Large Diameter Type (1815–1828)

From 1815-1828, the Capped Bust quarter measured approximately 27.5 millimeters across. Their size makes them noticeably larger than those quarters produced after 1830.

The reason for that difference is that the Large Diameter was struck on a screw press using open-collar technology. That process had been in use since the Mint’s earliest years.

Open collar systems worked like this. A blank planchet would rest between the dies without a steel ring surrounding it. That lack of a steel ring is why the system has its name.

Then, pressure forced the dies together. The metal then spread outward freely. The free spread often produced slight differences in diameter from one coin to another. Collectors may also notice irregular rims, uneven strikes, and slightly off-center designs.

Since the collar did not restrain the metal, the edge had to be formed in a separate operation before the coin reached the press. This added another production step and increased the chance of handling marks or minor variations.

Large Diameter Capped Bust quarters also tend to show weaker details in certain areas. Liberty’s curls, the eagle’s feathers, and the shield lines often appear soft, even on coins with little wear. The weaker detailing was a result of the minting process, not of circulation. That matters for collectors, as it demonstrates that a coin that seems to be in poor condition may actually have preserved its detail.

Specialists also love this version of the coin because it produced many die marriages. Mint workers often reused dies until they failed. This system produced many combinations of obverse and reverse dies. Today, these varieties are cataloged using the Browning reference system.

Small Diameter Type (1831–1838)

When quarter production resumed in 1831 after a two-year pause, the coins looked similar but were manufactured very differently. Their diameter was reduced to 24.3 millimeters, a size that remains close to modern U.S. quarters.

The most significant change was the creation of the close collar, or closed collar. During striking, a steel collar surrounded each planchet and controlled the flow of metal as the dies struck the coin. This produced pieces with a uniform diameter, stronger rims, and sharper details.

The close collar also formed the reeded edge in its coin products. Under the open collar production system, coin edges required a separate operation. The new system created the edge in one clean process, which made coin production faster and more consistent.

Reeded edges brought with them a practical benefit: they were harder to clip. That helped protect the silver content of each quarter.

Another important change occurred in 1837, when Congress adopted a standardized silver alloy of 90% silver and 10% copper. Previously, quarters contained roughly 89.2% silver and 10.8% copper, a standard which the United States inherited from Spanish colonial coinage. The difference is admittedly small. However, this shift marked an important milestone in American coinage history.

Which Type Is Better for Collectors?

Neither version of the coin is considered superior to the other. The two simply offer different collecting experiences.

Collectors who love early minting technology often favor Large Diameter Capped Bust quarters. The rugged appearance of these coins and their many die varieties give them more to explore in their collecting. Every example likewise has subtle differences, making each coin a unique holding.

Small Diameter Capped Bust quarters attract collectors who favor uniform design and sharper strikes. Many of these coins are easier to locate in high grades, too, which makes the series accessible to collectors with several budget ranges.

Complete Date and Mintage Guide

The United States Mint struck Capped Bust quarters in 17 different years between 1815 and 1838. Every coin was produced at the Philadelphia Mint, so none carries a mint mark. Production was not steady. Several years had no quarter coinage, while other years had mintages ranging from fewer than 20,000 coins to almost two million.

The Large Diameter series has the lowest reported mintages. The 1823 issue had a mintage of only 17,800 coins, and all known examples display the 1823/2 overdate. The 1822 issue also had a low mintage of 64,080 pieces. These coins often command strong premiums, especially when they have original surfaces and clear details.

The 1825 mintage requires added context. Mint records included quarters dated 1825 within the reported 1824 total of 168,000 coins. Collectors should not treat that figure as the exact number struck for either date. The 1825 quarters were made from overdated dies and are identified as 1825/2 or 1825/4 varieties.

The reported 1827 mintage of 4,000 coins is also misleading. No regular business strikes are known today. Surviving 1827/3 quarters are rare proof originals or later restrikes. The date is a major rarity and is not a realistic target for most date sets.

Small Diameter quarters generally have higher mintages. The 1835 issue is the most common date, with 1,952,000 coins struck. It is often a practical choice for a type collection. However, mintage alone does not determine value. Survival rates, grade, strike quality, die variety, and collector demand also matter.

Capped Bust quarter dates and reported mintages

Year	Type	Reported Mintage	Collector Notes
1815	Large Diameter	89,235	First year of the series
1818	Large Diameter	361,174	Includes the 1818/5 overdate
1819	Large Diameter	144,000	Several collectible die marriages
1820	Large Diameter	127,444	Available in several major varieties
1821	Large Diameter	216,851	Often found with weak strike details
1822	Large Diameter	64,080	Low-mintage issue; includes 25/50C variety
1823	Large Diameter	17,800	All known examples are 1823/2 overdates
1824	Large Diameter	168,000	Reported total includes 1825-dated quarters
1825	Large Diameter	Included with 1824	Known as 1825/2 and 1825/4 overdates
1827	Large Diameter	4,000 reported	Major rarity; surviving coins are proofs or restrikes
1828	Large Diameter	102,000	Final Large Diameter issue
1831	Small Diameter	398,000	First Small Diameter issue
1832	Small Diameter	320,000	Popular type-coin date
1833	Small Diameter	156,000	Lower mintage within the later type
1834	Small Diameter	286,000	Several die and lettering varieties
1835	Small Diameter	1,952,000	Highest mintage and common type choice
1836	Small Diameter	472,000	Final year under the earlier silver standard
1837	Small Diameter	252,400	Silver alloy increased to 90% purity
1838	Small Diameter	366,000	Final year of the series

No Capped Bust quarters were struck in 1816, 1817, 1826, 1829, or 1830. These gaps reflect changing demand for quarter-dollar coinage rather than missing collectible dates.

Key Dates and Important Varieties

The Capped Bust quarter series offers much more than a collection of dates. Many issues include overdates, repunched digits, and unique die marriages that can be worth far more than a common example from the same year. For advanced collectors, these varieties are often the main attraction.

The standard reference for identifying die marriages is Ard W. Browning's The Early Quarter Dollars of the United States. Each known combination of obverse and reverse dies is assigned a Browning (B) number, such as B-1 or B-2. While beginning collectors can complete a date set without learning these numbers, variety specialists often build entire collections around Browning die marriages.

1815: The First-Year Issue

The 1815 Capped Bust quarter is important because it marks the return of quarter-dollar production after an eight-year absence. Although its reported mintage of 89,235 coins is modest, demand from collectors keeps prices strong.

Many examples show weak strikes, especially on Liberty's hair and the eagle's breast feathers. Fully struck coins with original surfaces are much scarcer than the mintage suggests. High-grade examples are especially desirable because relatively few escaped circulation during the nineteenth century.

1818/5 Overdate

One of the most popular varieties in the series is the 1818/5 overdate. Mint employees created the working die by punching an 1818 date over an unused die dated 1815. Under magnification, remnants of the "5" remain visible beneath the final "8."

Overdates like this were common during the early nineteenth century because dies were expensive to produce. Rather than discard an unused die, the Mint often modified it for a new year.

The 1818/5 is collected both as a major variety and as an important part of any complete Capped Bust quarter collection.

1823/2 Overdate

The 1823 issue is one of the key dates in the entire series. Every known business strike was produced from an 1823/2 overdate, making the variety inseparable from the date itself.

With a reported mintage of only 17,800 coins, it has the lowest regular-issue mintage of any Capped Bust quarter. Most surviving examples show moderate to heavy wear, reflecting decades of circulation before collectors recognized their rarity.

Even lower-grade examples command substantial premiums. Coins with original surfaces, attractive toning, or higher grades become increasingly difficult to locate.

1825 Overdates

The 1825 issue presents another interesting challenge for collectors. Instead of a standard date, all known examples are overdates.

The two recognized varieties are:

1825/2
1825/4

These varieties resulted from the Mint reusing older dies rather than producing entirely new ones. Although they are not as famous as the 1818/5 or 1823/2, they remain popular among specialists because they illustrate how early Mint employees conserved resources.

The Famous 1827 Quarter

No discussion of Capped Bust quarters is complete without the 1827 issue.

Official Mint records report that 4,000 quarters were struck during the year. For many decades, collectors believed these represented regular business strikes. Modern research has shown otherwise.

Today, experts agree that no original business strikes from 1827 are known to exist.

Instead, the surviving coins fall into two categories:

Original Proofs, struck in 1827 in extremely limited numbers.
Restrikes, produced years later using the original dies after collectors began seeking the date.

Distinguishing originals from restrikes requires careful study. Specialists examine die states, strike characteristics, and tiny differences in the dies themselves. Third-party grading services also identify these pieces on their holders.

Original Proofs are among the greatest rarities in all early United States coinage. Restrikes are also scarce and highly collectible, but they generally sell for less than genuine originals.

Because of their rarity and value, 1827 quarters are frequently counterfeited or altered. Most collectors purchase only examples certified by PCGS or NGC.

Browning Die Marriages

Collectors who want a greater challenge often pursue Browning varieties.

Unlike modern coins, early quarters were struck using hand-prepared dies. Every die developed small differences during engraving, polishing, and repair. As dies wore out, Mint employees paired surviving obverse and reverse dies in new combinations. Each pairing created a unique die marriage.

Some Browning varieties are common, while others are extremely rare. A few are known from only a handful of surviving coins.

Collectors search for features such as:

Die cracks
Repunched stars or letters
Overdates
Misaligned date punches
Die breaks
Clash marks
Different berry and leaf arrangements

Because many of these features developed during production, studying die marriages offers a detailed look into how the early Philadelphia Mint actually operated.

Why Varieties Matter

Capped Bust quarters can vary in value, even if they are both from the same year. A scarce Browning variety can sell for several times the price of a more common die marriage in the same grade. Likewise, major overdates such as the 1818/5 and 1823/2 command premiums because collectors actively seek them.

For new collectors, building a complete date set is an excellent starting point. Once you get used to the market, you can begin branching out into overdate and Browning varieties.

Authentication Guide

Authenticating a Capped Bust quarter requires more than checking the date and design. Counterfeiters have copied early United States coins for decades because rare dates and high-grade examples can be worth thousands of dollars.

Fortunately, most fakes reveal problems when compared with genuine coins. Collectors can better avoid counterfeit or altered coins by learning about coin specifications, strike characteristics, edge details, and surface quality.

Verify the Specifications

The first step in verifying a coin is ensuring it matches the correct specifications. Capped Bust quarters should weigh roughly 6.74 grams. Significant differences in weight often indicate a counterfeit, or else excessive wear or damage.

Diameter is also a critical component. Large Diameter coins measure about 27.5 millimeters, while Small Diameter coins measure 24.3 millimeters.

The composition depends on the year. Coins dated 1815 through 1836 were struck in an alloy containing approximately 89.2% silver, while issues from 1837 and 1838 contain 90% silver. Because the difference is slight, collectors typically rely on weight and dimensions rather than metal testing alone.

If a coin falls outside the expected weight or diameter, it deserves closer examination before purchase.

Examine the Strike

Early nineteenth-century coins were struck differently than modern coins. They were produced on screw presses using hand-prepared dies, so even genuine examples often display uneven details.

Weakness commonly appears on Liberty's hair curls, the eagle's breast feathers, and portions of the shield. These soft areas often come from weak striking pressure, not circulation wear or cleaning damage.

Collectors should also look for flow lines that look natural. These indicate an original, authentic design. The same goes for complete design elements.

Genuine coins typically have sharp lettering, well-formed stars, and denticles that blend into the coin’s rim. Counterfeit pieces lack these sharp details. Instead, their designs often look mushy, with round lettering and grainy surfaces.

Cast counterfeits often lack the crisp coin edges that comes from standard mint processes. Instead, the details look soft and blurry across the coin.

Inspect the Edge

The edge provides another important clue.

All genuine Capped Bust quarters have a reeded edge. The reeds should be evenly spaced and extend around the entire coin surface.

Counterfeit coins are sometimes identifiable from their reeds. Their reeds may be shallow, irregular, or interrupted reeds. Others show filing marks where an altered edge attempted to hide evidence of casting or repairs.

It’s also wise to inspect the coin’s rim. Genuine coins typically have strong, well-defined rims that match the striking process used during the period. If you see seams, flat areas, or signs of coin parts joining together, those are strong signs of a counterfeit. These marks suggest a coin made by fusing two cast halves together.

Study the Surfaces

Original silver develops a distinctive appearance over time.

Many authentic Capped Bust quarters display light gray, gold, blue, or multicolored toning that formed naturally during decades of storage. The exact colors vary depending on storage conditions, but the transition between colors should appear smooth and gradual.

Cleaning often removes this original surface. Hairline scratches, bright white metal, and unnatural shine are common signs of past cleaning. Although cleaned coins remain genuine, they usually sell for much less than coins with original surfaces.

Cast counterfeits may also show tiny bubbles, porous areas, or rough patches that genuine struck coins do not exhibit.

Watch for Altered Dates and Counterfeits

Rare dates attract counterfeiters because they command substantial premiums.

Some fakes begin as common Capped Bust quarters with altered digits. Others are entirely fabricated using cast molds or modern dies. Under magnification, altered dates often show tool marks, mismatched numerals, or uneven spacing between the digits.

Collectors should compare the date style, star placement, and lettering with verified examples whenever possible. Early United States coins were struck from specific die pairs, so the position of every design element is well documented.

If something looks unusual, assume nothing until the coin has been carefully researched.

Buy Certified Examples

The safest approach for buying valuable Capped Bust quarters is to buy certified iterations from respected grading services like PCGS or NGC.

These companies perform crucial services for collectors. They will verify a coin’s authenticity and assign it a grade, which describes the coin’s condition. From there, they seal the coin in a tamper-evident holder.

Certification does not guarantee that your coin will become valuable. However, it greatly reduces the risk of buying a counterfeit or altered coin. It also boosts the liquidity of your coin. This certification enhances the coin’s trustworthiness in the eyes of many buyers and sellers.

Learning to authenticate a Capped Bust quarter takes time and experience. By checking the specifications, studying the strike, inspecting the edge, evaluating the surfaces, and buying certified examples for expensive purchases, collectors can build a collection with confidence while avoiding many of the mistakes that affect beginning buyers.

Grading the Capped Bust quarter

Grading a Capped Bust quarter requires more than measuring how much wear appears on the coin. Collectors must also consider strike quality, luster, surface preservation, and eye appeal. Because these coins were struck by hand-operated presses in the early nineteenth century, even Mint State examples may show weak details that are unrelated to circulation.

Learning the difference between strike weakness and actual wear is one of the most important skills when grading this series.

Understanding Wear vs. Weak Strike

Many Capped Bust quarters received incomplete strikes during their minting. The highest points of the design, especially Liberty's curls, the eagle's breast feathers, and portions of the shield, often appear soft and vague. That is true even for coins that never entered circulation.

New collectors sometimes mistake these weak areas for wear. Experienced graders look for changes in the surface rather than focusing solely on how sharp the design details are.

Wear removes the coin's original mint luster and smooths the highest points. A weak strike, by contrast, may leave the details incomplete while the original texture and luster remain intact.

This distinction becomes especially important when evaluating higher-grade examples.

Circulated Grades

Most surviving Capped Bust quarters circulated for many years before collectors began saving them. As a result, the majority of examples fall within the circulated grade range.

Good (G-4 to G-6)

Coins in Good condition show heavy wear across both sides. On the obverse, this typically means that Liberty’s portrait is still visible, but her hair details have worn away. The eagle lacks feather detail, and the shield is mostly flat. The rims should still be complete enough to separate the design from the edge.

Although heavily worn, Good examples remain popular because they offer an affordable way to own an early American silver coin.

Very Good (VG-8 to VG-10)

In Very Good condition, additional design elements become visible. Some of the curl in Liberty’s hair becomes noticeable. On the reverse, it is easier to see portions of the eagle’s feathers. The lettering and date remain bold, and the rims become more complete and robust. Most collectors consider Very Good the lowest grade that displays the design clearly.

Fine (F-12 to F-15)

Fine examples retain moderate detail across the coin. Several curls in Liberty's hair remain distinct, while more feather detail appears on the eagle. The shield lines begin to separate, although many are still worn.

Coins in Fine condition often balance affordability with attractive eye appeal.

Very Fine (VF-20 to VF-35)

Very Fine specimens show moderate wear only on the highest points. Liberty's hair curls remain well defined, and much of the eagle's feather detail is visible. Shield lines are stronger, and the stars and lettering remain sharp.

Many collectors consider VF coins the ideal balance between price and detail.

About Uncirculated

About Uncirculated (AU-50 to AU-58) coins exhibit only slight wear on the highest points of the design.

Light friction usually appears on Liberty's hair above the forehead and cap, as well as on the eagle's breast and wing tips. Most of the original mint luster remains, often covering 50 to 95 percent of the surfaces.

Coins of this grade resemble Mint State coins at first glance. However, if you rotate the coin under a light, you will likely find small breaks in the luster. These usually occur at the coin’s highest points, which experienced slight circulation wear.

Many collectors view AU coins as high value coins because they have nearly all of their original appearance. They provide the fine look of a classic coin for a significantly lower price than a Mint State example.

Mint State Grades

A Mint State (MS) Capped Bust quarter shows no wear from circulation. Any marks on the coin came from the minting or transportation process, not everyday circulation.

Mint State coins are divided into subsets of grades. Like the other grades we have discussed, these Mint State grades come from a combination of luster, strike quality, surface preservation, and eye appeal.

MS-60 to MS-62

Lower Mint State grades usually show several contact marks along with dull or uneven luster. These factors combine to make the coin less attractive than other Mint State coins. The coin remains uncirculated, but the surfaces show noticeable imperfections.

MS-63 to MS-64

These coins have fewer marks, stronger luster, and more attractive overall appearance. Minor strike weakness is common and generally does not prevent a coin from receiving these grades.

MS-65 and Above

Gem Mint State examples are scarce for nearly every date in the series. They combine strong luster, attractive surfaces, minimal contact marks, and excellent eye appeal. Many also display colorful natural toning that developed during decades of careful storage.

Because relatively few Capped Bust quarters survived without entering circulation, certified Gem examples often command substantial premiums.

Factors Beyond Wear

Grading a Capped Bust quarter involves more than assigning a numerical grade. Collectors take several factors into account, including originality, toning, cleaning, damage, and strike quality.

A naturally toned VF coin often draws stronger demand than a cleaned AU example. Similarly, a sharply struck Mint State coin usually commands a premium over a coin that shares its grade but lacks strong surface details.

Many collectors buy high grade coins from PCGS or NGC. These grading services authenticate the coin, assign a professional grade, and provide a consistent grading scale used across the numismatic industry.

What Determines the Value of a Capped Bust quarter?

No two Capped Bust quarters are worth exactly the same amount. While the date is important, several other factors can have an even greater impact on value. A common date in exceptional condition may sell for far more than a scarcer date with heavy wear.

Collectors and dealers consider several other factors when they evaluate a coin. These include rarity, grade, originality, eye appeal, certification, and current market demand before determining its value. Understanding these factors is critical for finding the best coin for your collection.

Rarity

The first factor is rarity.

Some dates simply had lower mintages than others. For example, the 1823/2 overdate had a reported mintage of only 17,800 coins, making it one of the key dates in the series. Other dates, such as 1835, were struck in much larger numbers and are easier to find today.

However, mintage tells only part of the story. What really determines a coin’s rarity is its survival rate.

Several coins remained in circulation for decades, and eventually became lost to time and wear. Others were melted for their silver content or sold overseas. As a result, some dates with relatively high mintages are still difficult to locate in attractive condition.

Grade

A coin’s grade is the most important factor in determining its value. The higher the grade, the higher the price.

A Very Fine example may be worth several hundred dollars, while the same coin in Mint State could sell for several thousand dollars.

This is especially true for Capped Bust quarters because so few examples survived without entering circulation. High-grade coins become increasingly scarce with each step up the grading scale.

Collectors should also remember that early quarters often display weak strikes. Professional graders separate strike weakness from actual wear, making accurate grading especially important for this series.

Original Surfaces

Collectors place a premium on originality.

An original Capped Bust quarter retains the surfaces it developed naturally over nearly two centuries. These coins often display soft gray color or attractive gold, blue, and amber toning that formed during long-term storage.

Original surfaces provide confidence that the coin has not been cleaned, polished, or otherwise altered.

Once a coin has been cleaned, it cannot be restored to its original condition. Even if the cleaning occurred many years ago, most collectors will pay less for a cleaned example than for an original coin with the same numerical grade.

Eye Appeal

Eye appeal is another major factor.

Two coins with identical grades may sell for very different prices because one simply looks better.

Collectors typically want coins that look appealing. That usually includes natural toning, strong luster, and few noticeable marks. Evenly worn surfaces and balanced color also improve eye appeal.

By contrast, dark spots, heavy scratches, corrosion, or uneven cleaning can reduce a coin's desirability, even when the certified grade remains unchanged.

Because eye appeal is somewhat subjective, experienced collectors often spend extra money for coins that stand out visually.

CAC Approval

Many certified Capped Bust quarters also carry a CAC sticker.

The Certified Acceptance Corporation (CAC) reviews coins already graded by PCGS or NGC. If CAC believes a coin is solid or high-end for its assigned grade, it places a green sticker on the holder. Coins considered exceptional for the grade may receive a gold sticker.

CAC approval does not change the numerical grade, but it often increases buyer confidence. As a result, CAC-approved Capped Bust quarters frequently sell for premiums over similar certified coins without a sticker.

Provenance

There is another factor in https://www.moneymetals.com/coin";>coin value that newcomer collectors rarely consider. That factor is the coin’s ownership history. In technical terms, this is referred to as its provenance.

Coins that once belonged to famous collections often draw additional interest and collector demand. Respected numismatists often have very thorough documentation of their collection’s ownership history. That gives their collections a reputation for containing carefully selected, high-quality coins.

Collectors are often willing to pay more for Capped Bust quarters that can be traced to such a collection or auction. These traits add additional historical significance and pedigree to a coin that already links to a critical historical era in the nation’s history.

Current Market Demand

Finally, market demand plays an important role.

Interest in early United States coinage changes over time. When more collectors begin building Capped Bust quarter sets, prices often rise as competition increases for limited supplies.

Demand is especially strong for key dates, original Mint State coins, major overdates, and rare Browning die marriages. These coins rarely remain on the market for long when priced fairly.

Bullion prices also have a limited effect. Although every Capped Bust quarter contains silver, collector value almost always exceeds its melt value. Only heavily damaged or extremely worn examples trade close to their intrinsic silver content.

Ultimately, the most valuable Capped Bust quarters combine several desirable qualities. A rare date, high grade, original surfaces, attractive eye appeal, CAC approval, and strong collector demand can produce significant premiums.

Capped Bust Quarter Value Guide

Capped Bust quarter values range from about $125 for a heavily worn common date to many thousands of dollars for high-grade coins. Major rarities can reach six figures.

Small Diameter issues from 1831 through 1838 are often the most affordable choices. Common dates such as 1831, 1832, 1834, and 1835 have similar values in most circulated grades. The 1835 has the highest mintage and is a popular type coin. A collector may expect to pay around $125 in Good, $475 in Extremely Fine, or $1,500 in lower Mint State grades.

Large Diameter quarters from 1815 through 1828 usually cost more. Common examples begin near $180 in Good. Values rise to about $1,750 in Extremely Fine and more than $3,500 in Mint State. Certain dates and die varieties bring much higher prices.

The 1815 first-year issue carries a premium because of its history and collector demand. The 1822 is scarcer, while its rare 25/50C variety can sell for far more than a normal example.

The 1823/2 is one of the great keys to the series. PCGS estimates begin near $50,000 in Good and rise above $100,000 in middle circulated grades. Its value reflects both its low reported mintage and tiny surviving population.

Price guides are starting points, not guaranteed sale prices. Original surfaces, strong strikes, attractive toning, and CAC approval may support premiums. Cleaning, scratches, rim damage, or corrosion can reduce value sharply. Rare varieties should be authenticated by PCGS or NGC before purchase.

Estimated Capped Bust quarter values by grade

Issue or Type	Good (G-4)	Very Fine (VF-30)	Extremely Fine (EF-40)	About Uncirculated (AU-55)	Mint State (MS-60)
Common Small Diameter date	$125	$265	$475	$1,300	$1,500
Common Large Diameter date	$180	$900	$1,750	$3,250	$3,650
1815	$300	$1,500	$2,800	$4,250	$4,350
1822	$325	$1,350	$2,250	$6,000	$6,500
1823/2	$50,000	$110,000	$125,000	$200,000	Not regularly available

Rarity and Survival Rates

At first glance, the reported mintages for Capped Bust quarters tell only part of the story. While some dates were struck in limited numbers, the true measure of rarity is how many coins survive today.

During the early nineteenth century, quarters were workhorse coins that circulated heavily in everyday commerce. Few people collected them, and almost no one set aside examples because they might become valuable in the future.

As a result, the surviving population of the coin series is only a small fraction of the original mintage.

Many Capped Bust quarters disappeared through normal wear. Others were melted when silver prices increased or when damaged coins were withdrawn from circulation.

As a result, countless examples were also lost, destroyed, or permanently damaged in the centuries following the coin’s debut. This steady attrition explains why even common dates can be difficult to locate in attractive condition today.

The difference between mintage and survival rate is important. Mintage refers to the number of coins that the Philadelphia Mint originally struck. In contrast, survival rates are an estimate of how many examples still exist in all grades.

There can be a significant difference between the two. Some coins had very high mintage but low survival rates, making the coin very rare and valuable. Coins with lower mintages often had collectors who preserved them, giving them a higher survival rate.

The 1835 Capped Bust quarter is an example of this. With a mintage of 1,952,000 coins, it is the most common date in the series. Thousands of examples survive today, making it the preferred choice for collectors assembling a type set. However, Gem Mint State examples remain scarce because very few escaped circulation immediately after striking.

At the opposite end of the spectrum is the 1823/2 overdate. Although its reported mintage was only 17,800 coins, experts estimate that only a few hundred examples survive in all grades. Most show moderate to heavy wear, and certified Mint State coins are exceptionally rare.

The famous 1827 quarter is even more unusual. Although Mint records report a mintage of 4,000 coins, researchers believe no regular business strikes survive. The known population consists primarily of original Proofs and later restrikes, making the date one of the great rarities in early American numismatics.

Condition rarity also plays an important role throughout the series. While collectors can locate many dates in Good or Very Fine condition with patience, the number of surviving About Uncirculated and Mint State coins drops sharply. Each increase in grade represents a much smaller surviving population, which is why prices rise so quickly for high-quality examples.

Modern PCGS and NGC population reports provide another way to measure rarity. These reports list the number of coins each grading service has certified by date and grade. While useful, population reports should not be viewed as exact survival totals. Some coins have been submitted multiple times in hopes of receiving higher grades, while many raw coins remain uncertified in private collections.

Even so, population reports clearly show that certified Mint State Capped Bust quarters are scarce, while Gem examples are genuinely rare for nearly every date.

For collectors, survival rates provide a better picture of scarcity than mintage figures alone. They explain why common dates still command respectable prices and why key issues such as the 1823/2 and 1827 remain among the most desirable coins in early United States numismatics. Understanding both mintage and survival rates allows collectors to appreciate just how remarkable it is that any Capped Bust quarter has survived more than two centuries of American history.

Collecting Strategies

The Capped Bust quarter offers something for nearly every collector. There are several ways to build a satisfying collection across many budget ranges. Some collectors prioritize a single representative coin. Others spend years building complete date sets or hunting rare die varieties.

Choosing the best strategy depends on several factors. Collectors must consider their budget, collecting experience, and their long-term collecting goals.

Build a Type Set

A type set is the simplest way to collect the series.

Many United States coin collectors purchase a single Capped Bust quarter to represent the design in a broader collection of American coins. This approach allows you to own an important piece of early U.S. history without pursuing every date.

The most popular choices are common Small Diameter issues such as 1834 or 1835. These dates are widely available and typically cost less than the earlier Large Diameter coins. Collectors seeking a more historic example often choose an 1815 first-year issue, although it usually carries a higher premium.

For most type sets, a problem-free coin in Very Fine or Extremely Fine condition offers an excellent balance between detail, eye appeal, and affordability.

Assemble a Complete Date Set

Collectors looking for a greater challenge often pursue a complete date set.

This collection includes every regular date issued between 1815 and 1838, including the production gaps when no quarters were struck. Completing the set requires patience because several dates are significantly scarcer than others.

Key dates such as the 1822, 1823/2, and 1827 present the greatest challenge. Many collectors substitute an affordable restrike for the nearly unobtainable original 1827 Proof, while others simply leave that space empty until an opportunity arises.

Building a complete date set can take many years, making it a rewarding long-term collecting goal.

Explore Browning Varieties

Collectors who enjoy research often specialize in Browning die marriages.

Each variety represents a unique marriage of dies used on the obverse and reverse during their minting. These coins feature several differences, such as repunched dates, overdates, die cracks, misplaced stars, or other small characteristics.

Some Browning varieties are easy to find. Others are incredibly rare and only occasionally show up at auction.

Learning about these die marriages can help navigate another level of challenge in collecting Capped Bust quarters.

Compete in Registry Sets

Experienced collectors often participate in PCGS or NGC Registry Sets.

These programs allow collectors to use their certified coins to build digital collections. They can then compare these collections with other participants in the program.

PCGS and NGC then award points to the collections based on their rarity and grade, which keep high-quality coins in particularly high demand.

Competition for these top registry rankings has increased demand for certified Mint State coins, particularly those with exceptional eye appeal or CAC approval.

Buy the Best You Can Afford

The best principle for collectors is this: quality before quantity.

A single original, problem-free coin is usually a better purchase than several cleaned or damaged examples. Original surfaces, attractive toning, and solid eye appeal tend to hold their value better over time.

So, what does that mean for your goals? As a general rule, limited budgets will find that common dates in Very Fine or About Uncirculated condition are the most accommodating.

Bigger budgets should aim for certified coins from PCGS or NGC. These services can provide assurance that your coin is authentic, as well as provide a provenance for many coins.

When collecting historical coins, patience finds more reward than speed. You are more likely to build a historically meaningful and financially rewarding collection by doing the following:

Focus on original quality
Buy within your budget
Choose a collecting strategy that matches your interests

Following these practices can help you find the best Capped Bust quarters for your collection.

Investment Perspective

The Capped Bust quarter occupies a unique place in the rare coin market. Unlike modern bullion coins, which derive their value entirely from their precious metals content, these coins combine silver value with strong numismatic demand. Every Capped Bust quarter contains silver, either 89.2% or 90%. However, most of its value comes from its collectible value.

That creates opportunities and risks for investors and collectors.

Silver bullion follows the spot price of silver, making its value easy to calculate. Capped Bust quarters gain their value from a combination of variables, including rarity, condition, and collector demand. That is a much harder value to calculate, and it offers much more price fluctuation.

Common-date coins in Good condition may sell for several hundred dollars, far surpassing https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/silver/coins";>silver bullion coins despite a significantly smaller silver quantity. Key dates, rare overdates, and high-grade certified coins can sell for thousands, or even hundreds of thousands, of dollars.

This disconnect from spot silver prices comes with an advantage. If silver prices decline, high-quality Capped Bust quarters remain largely unaffected. Their market depends more on numismatic demand than fluctuations in the precious metals market.

Another strength is limited supply. No new Capped Bust quarters can ever be produced, and the surviving population continues to shrink as coins are lost, damaged, or permanently placed in long-term collections. This fixed supply has supported values over many decades, particularly for key dates and original Mint State examples.

Liquidity is also generally strong, although it varies by quality. Certified coins from PCGS or NGC have higher liquidity than uncertified coins. Buyers are more willing to buy these coins because they trust their authenticity and grade more.

While these are legitimate strengths, they do not eliminate Capped Bust quarter investment risks.

Prices can fluctuate with collector demand. Some rare varieties experience periods of incredible appreciation, only to decline over a course of years afterward. Another risk includes cleaned, damaged, or improperly graded coins ending up in your collection. These coins often perform poorly, as collectors favor original surfaces.

Another disadvantage is the specialized knowledge required for navigating the numismatic markets. Buying a high-value coin requires an in-depth understanding of grading, authentication, rarity, and market trends. Without that knowledge, it is easy to buy a low-value coin and significantly reduce your returns.

For these reasons, many experienced buyers focus on problem-free, certified coins with strong eye appeal. Original surfaces, attractive toning, and CAC approval can further improve long-term marketability.

The Capped Bust quarter should not replace a core precious metals portfolio built on bullion. It best serves as a complementary holding for investors who appreciate historical American coinage. Bullion provides direct exposure to silver prices, but the Capped Bust quarter offers potential for additional value. Collector demand, scarcity, and historical significance can add significant premiums beyond the coin’s silver value.

Storage and Preservation

Proper storage is necessary for preserving your Capped Bust quarter’s condition. Storage can make all the difference in preserving the coin’s appearance, and therefore, its value.

These coins are more than 180 years old, and their original surfaces cannot be replaced once they are damaged. Even minor mistakes in handling or storage can reduce a coin's value.

Always handle raw coins by their edges. Natural oils and moisture from your fingers can leave permanent marks on the silver. Inspect coins by holding them over a soft surface or wear clean cotton or nitrile gloves to avoid any accidental damage to the coin.

Store each Capped Bust quarter in a stationary holder. Most experts recommend non-PVC plastic flips, hard plastic capsules, or certified holders from PCGS or NGC for your coin storage. Avoid soft plastic holders that contain PVC, as they can release chemicals over time that distort the coin’s surface.

The storage environment also matters. Cool, dry places are the best for storing old silver coins. This environment should also keep stable temperatures and low humidity. Moisture in the air can promote corrosion, and rapid temperature chances can encourage unwanted toning or condensation. Silica gel packets placed inside a safe or storage box can help control humidity.

Never clean a Capped Bust quarter.

Cleaning is one of the quickest ways to reduce a coin's value. Abrasive cloths, polishing compounds, jewelry cleaners, and chemical dips can permanently damage the original surfaces. Professional grading services can usually detect cleaned coins. Collectors typically pay far less for these issues.

Home safes or bank safe deposit boxes are often the best places for storing valuable coins. That is especially true for collections worth several thousand dollars or more. Specialized collectibles insurance can provide protection against theft, fire, or other unexpected losses. Standard homeowner’s insurance policies may not fully cover rare coins without additional coverage.

The last tip is to inspect your collection periodically. Ensure your holders do not have any damage. Monitor the storage environment’s conditions. Verify that humidity remains low.

Frequently Asked Questions

Yes. Every Capped Bust quarter contains silver. Coins struck from 1815 through 1836 are composed of 89.2% silver and 10.8% copper, while issues from 1837 and 1838 use the modern standard of 90% silver and 10% copper. Although each coin has intrinsic silver value, collector demand usually makes them worth far more than their melt value.

Most Capped Bust quarters are scarce because they were produced in relatively small numbers and circulated heavily for decades. Many were later melted or lost. Today, surviving examples are limited, especially in higher grades, which keeps prices strong.

The 1827 Capped Bust quarter is generally considered the rarest regular-date issue. No original business strikes are known to survive, and collectors compete for a small number of original Proofs and later restrikes. The 1823/2 overdate is another major rarity with a very limited surviving population.

Start by checking the coin's weight, diameter, and design details. Look for the correct reeded edge, natural wear patterns, and proper silver composition. Because counterfeit early American coins exist, valuable examples should be authenticated by PCGS or NGC.

Large Diameter quarters were struck from 1815 through 1828 and measure 27.5 millimeters. Small Diameter quarters were produced from 1831 through 1838 after the Mint introduced a close collar during striking. They measure 24.3 millimeters but weigh the same as the earlier coins.

No. Cleaning almost always lowers a coin's value by removing its original surfaces. Collectors generally prefer coins that keep their natural toning and finishes. Even light polishing or chemical cleaning can leave permanent damage.

They can be for buyers who understand the rare coin market. High-quality, original Capped Bust quarters sustain demand because of their rarity and link to early American history. While they sustain demand, though, they are not a stable investment. Collectors are generally advised to focus on finding the most high-quality coin they can without expecting short-term gains.

Many collectors begin with a 1834 or 1835 Small Diameter quarter. These dates are among the most available in the series and provide an affordable way to own an authentic early United States silver coin. They also make excellent additions to type sets before moving on to scarcer dates and varieties.

Conclusion

The Capped Bust quarter occupies an important place in American coinage. Struck from 1815 through 1838, it represents a period when the young U.S. Mint was finding its footing and the nation's economy was steadily expanding. John Reich's distinctive design, the series' many die varieties, and its relative scarcity have made these quarters a favorite among collectors for generations.

There's room in the series for almost every budget and collecting style. Some common-dates are available within a reasonable budget. Rarer coins, such as key dates, Browning varieties, or well-preserved original examples remain expensive due to their high demand.

In the two hundred years since the Capped Bust quarter first appeared, it has become very difficult to find well-preserved examples. Now more than ever, it is crucial to verify their originality and authenticity. Buying certified coins or working with an established dealer can help you avoid cleaned, damaged, or otherwise problematic coins.

Where's the Off-Ramp? Can This Gold Bull Market Run Forever?

Wed, 02 Sep 2026 00:00:00 EST

Last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh talked gold and silver down during his Jackson Hole speech, playing the tough guy facing down inflation.

But as Mike Maharrey reminds listeners in this week's Midweek Memo, Warsh & Co. still hasn't done a darn thing to tackle inflation.

Why not?

Mike says the Fed is stuck on a highway with no off-ramp. It's traveling in a direction it doesn't really want to go because the debt black hole is dominating the economy.

In this episode, Mike explains 40 trillion reasons for the lack of action by the Warsh Fed so far, the ramifications if the Fed finally bites the bullet and raises rates, and why this puts gold and silver on an uphill highway with no off-ramp.

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Mike opens the show by asking the audience if they've missed an exit on the interstate.

"Awful feeling. Especially if you’re in the middle of nowhere. I remember missing an exit once, and I had to drive some 20 miles before I got to the next exit so I could turn around. The longer you drive, the more frustrating it gets, right? You’re being forced to go in a direction you don’t want to go because there’s no off-ramp.

"Welcome to the world of a Federal Reserve central banker.

"Man, Fed chair Kevin Warsh wants to raise interest rates. And he wants you to know he wants to raise interest rates. He’s telling you every chance he gets. That’s what the big Jackson Hole speech last Friday was all about. But you know what Warsh & Co. aren’t doing – at least not yet? Raising interest rates.

"Why not? If inflation is still out of control – and it is – why would you not immediately make the moves you think necessary to get it under control?

"Probably because you’re stuck going the wrong direction down the highway with no off-ramp."

Mike extends the analogy to the gold and silver markets.

"You know, gold also seems to be going down the highway with no off-ramp. And the general trajectory of the highway is up."

Mike concedes it hasn't felt that way for the last few days, with the metals taking a pounding after Warsh's Jackson Hole speech and another flare-up in Iran.

"But remember, don’t listen to the noise. War news is noise. Warsh’s yip-yap is noise. What are the fundamentals? We are buried in debt, and the world is spurning the dollar. The underlying dynamics remain bullish for both gold and silver."

Mike raises a question: how long can this bull ride last?

How about forever?

"That sounds crazy, I know. But think about it. What drives gold higher over time? Currency debasement. Do you think the government will ever quit debasing the currency? Me neither. So, there ya go."

Mike highlights a recent interview with Ned Davis Research Chief Alternative Strategist John LaForge, who made a similar argument, calling for a "forever" gold bull market.

"Granted, he didn’t say 'forever,' but that’s the implication of his comments."

In a nutshell, LaForge argues that gold will continue to rise until governments get their spending and debt problems under control. Mike asserts that since nobody is willing to do what it takes to “deal with the debt situation,” gold prices will ostensibly go up forever, or until the fiat system finally implodes.

"On the other hand, things aren’t so "together" for the dollar. It buys less and less every day. And as I keep emphasizing – that’s the plan. They want to devalue your money by at least 10 percent every five years."

Mike demonstrates this currency debasement by pointing out that a million-dollar prize on "Who Wants to Be a Millionaire" when the show first aired in 1999 now only buys $500,000 worth of stuff.

"They probably need to just go ahead and change the name of the game to “Who Wants to Win $500,000?” But that doesn’t quite have the same ring to it, does it?

"However, it reflects reality.

"Your government has ruined your money. And it continues to ruin your money as a matter of policy. Never forget: https://www.moneymetals.com/podcasts/2025/11/05/inflation-is-the-plan-004459";>inflation is the plan!"

Mike then pivots to Warsh's "Open Mouth Operations" at Jackson Hole.

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"So, as I’ve already alluded to, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh moved markets on Friday with his Jackson Hole speech, even though the central bank has yet to do anything to move inflation. Clearly, Warsh wants to convey a message. He’s tough on inflation, and the Fed will 'deliver price stability.' It’s less clear that he will ever be able to deliver on his hawkish promise."

Warsh delivered a hawkish speech that upped expectations for at least one rate hike this year.

"It’s important to note that Warsh never said the Fed will hike rates. He didn’t hint at any timeline. He just blustered about being tough on inflation. But as most bullies learn, talking tough and being tough when the punches fly are two different things."

In fact, Mike doesn't think the Fed will be able to hike. How can it, with the U.S. government $40 trillion in debt, consumers buried under trillions in debt, and corporations leveraged to the hilt?

If the Fed raises rates to tackle inflation, it will almost certainly crash the debt-riddled bubble economy.

"This is the https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/03/19/gold-the-federal-reserve-and-a-catch-22-004773";>Catch-22 I’ve been harping on for months. The Fed simultaneously needs to raise rates to push inflation back to the target and cut rates to manage the debt black hole and keep the economy limping along. So, I don’t think the Fed will hike rates. And if it does, I think it will tip the economy into a deep recession and likely a financial crisis. Either way, you want to have gold and silver."

Mike closes the show by noting that the recent sell-off presents a buying opportunity and urging listeners to call 800-800-1865 and speak with a Money Metals precious metals specialist today.

Articles Mentioned During the Show

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/20/us-treasury-intervenes-in-bond-market-to-drive-yields-lower-005150";>U.S. Treasury Intervenes in the Bond Market to Drive Yields Lower

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/04/what-is-the-pce-and-why-is-it-the-feds-favorite-inflation-gauge-005110";>What Is the PCE and Why Is It the Fed's Favorite Inflation Gauge?

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/27/gold-and-silver-surge-as-the-debasement-trade-returns-005164";>Gold and Silver Surge as the Debasement Trade Returns

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/22/50000-gold-billionaire-investor-thomas-kaplan-thinks-so-005157";>$50,000 Gold? Investor Thomas Kaplan Thinks So

A Forever Gold Bull Market?

Tue, 01 Sep 2026 00:00:00 EST

How long will the gold bull market last?

Forever.

That’s the view of Ned Davis Research Chief Alternative Strategist John LaForge.

Granted, he didn’t say “forever,” but that’s the implication of his comments on Kitco News.

“I think prices peak when we learn how to deal with the debt situation. The longer we let it go, and we don’t pay this stuff back, and we keep piling all these debts up, the higher gold prices can go.”

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Given that nobody is willing to do what it takes to “deal with the debt situation,” gold prices will ostensibly go up forever, or until the fiat system finally implodes.

“All I know is the trend is up until we deal with government debt,” LaForge said. “I think we can still see multiple years of higher prices because I don’t get the sense at all that, globally, politicians and leaders want to deal with it.”

He’s right.

Here in the U.S., the government continues to spend over half a billion every single month despite https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/20/the-40-trillion-national-debt-in-perspective-005151";>$40 trillion in outstanding debt. So far in fiscal 2026, Uncle Sam has spent $6.28 trillion. That’s a 3.3 percent increase compared to the same period last year.

A 3.3 percent increase in spending might not sound significant. But weren't we told there would be spending cuts?

DOGE seemed promising, but once the headlines faded, spending continued unabated. The “Big Beautiful Bill” cut some spending but added more.

So, despite some non-specific talk about “spending cuts,” there seems to be little to no commitment to tackle runaway spending in Congress or the White House. In fact, the powers-that-be constantly find new reasons to spend money, whether it is a crisis at home or a war overseas.

LaForge said he doesn’t see any off-ramp in the future.

“There’s no way to pay this thing beyond just debasing everything. This is the biggest tailwind gold has had.”

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In fact, analysts call the pivot from dollar-denominated assets to gold and silver the “https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/27/gold-and-silver-surge-as-the-debasement-trade-returns-005164";>debasement trade.”

Even after gold’s meteoric rise of the last couple of years, LaForge said there is still plenty of room to run higher. In fact, he said he thinks we are in the early stages of a broader commodity “super-cycle.”

“We have plenty of room for this thing.”

Central banks apparently see the writing on the wall. https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/18/four-reasons-central-banks-are-piling-up-gold-005146";>They are piling up gold.

LaForge characterized the yellow metal as one of the few “bearer assets” that can be owned outside the credit system. A bearer asset is defined as a financial or digital item that belongs entirely to whoever physically holds or controls it, with no registration or official record of ownership.

That means gold carries no https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/02/29/buy-gold-and-silver-to-hedge-against-counterparty-risk-003015";>counterparty risk.

“There just aren’t many bearer assets that you as a central bank can hold where everyone in the world pretty much agrees, if you sent them a bar of gold, they’d say, ‘All right, I’ll take payment for that,’” LaForge said.

Could this be a historical moment for gold?

LaForge said he thinks so, saying, “Gold has such a unique time in history.”

“This is the time it’s all coming together.”