Precious Metals News & Analysis - Gold News, Silver News from Money Metals Exchange

War, Rates, and Volatility in Precious Metals Markets

Sat, 25 Apr 2026 00:00:00 EST

In a recent episode of the Money Metals podcast, host Mike Maharrey sat down with Philip Newman, https://www.metalsfocus.com/our-team/"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">Managing Director and founding partner of Metals Focus, to unpack the forces shaping gold and silver markets in 2026.

Drawing on Metals Focus’ widely respected data, which is used by organizations such as the Silver Institute and World Gold Council, Newman offered a detailed look at how geopolitics, monetary policy, and industrial demand are interacting in real time.

The discussion began with the Iran–U.S.–Israel conflict, which has introduced significant https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/04/11/gold-geopolitics-and-volatility-insights-from-joe-cavatoni-004830";>volatility across global markets. While many expected a strong safe-haven surge in gold and silver, Newman explained that the metals have not responded as dramatically as some anticipated.

A key reason is the sharp rally leading into late January 2026, when both metals reached record highs before correcting. That pullback left some investors cautious about re-entering the market.

More importantly, the dominant influence has shifted toward Federal Reserve expectations. Before the conflict, markets were pricing in up to two rate cuts in 2026. After hostilities began, expectations quickly changed, at times even suggesting the possibility of a rate increase.

(Interview Starts Around 8:21 Mark)

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Inflation Outlook, Fed Policy, and Global Economic Uncertainty

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Looking beyond the immediate conflict, Newman described the broader environment as highly uncertain. Metals Focus built its 2026 forecasts on the https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/04/04/war-headlines-shook-prices-but-the-bigger-silver-story-is-still-intact-004813";>assumption of a short-lived war, but a prolonged conflict could shift the outlook. Rising energy prices have already contributed to inflation pressures, including a reported 21 percent increase in gasoline prices, which could push the https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/04/21/inflation-alert-the-federal-reserve-balance-sheet-is-growing-again-004853";>Federal Reserve toward tighter policy.

At the same time, conflicting pressures complicate the situation. High levels of government and corporate debt make sustained higher interest rates difficult. Political dynamics also play a role.

Newman noted that pressure on the Federal Reserve, particularly from former President Donald Trump, could raise concerns about central bank independence. If markets begin to doubt that independence, the U.S. dollar could weaken, which would https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/04/20/silver-price-surged-last-year-despite-modest-drop-in-demand-004851";>support gold and silver prices.

Geopolitical risks extend well beyond the Middle East. Ongoing tensions involving Russia, Ukraine, NATO, and East Asia continue to add instability. Even if the current conflict ends quickly, other factors such as tariffs, the November 2026 U.S. midterm elections, and shifting political strategies could sustain volatility across global markets.

Retail vs Institutional Investors in Gold and Silver Markets

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Another important theme is the divergence between retail and institutional investors. Maharrey pointed out that gold often rises during Asian and European trading hours, then declines when U.S. markets open. This observation aligns with ETF data showing continued inflows into gold funds in Asia during March.

Newman confirmed that retail demand has remained strong, particularly in coins and bars across multiple regions.

In contrast, institutional investors have become more cautious. Increased price volatility and risk management constraints have limited their participation. The correction in late January forced many institutions to scale back exposure, and higher volatility now allows them to achieve returns with fewer trades.

As Newman explained, “The volatility is so much greater that a single trade can perhaps generate a return… compared to six months ago.”

He also noted that much of silver’s rally from mid-October 2025 through January 2026 was driven by retail activity and day trading, especially on exchanges such as the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the CME. This highlights how different segments of the market are reacting in distinct ways to current conditions.

Silver Supply Deficit and Long-Term Market Trends

Newman also discussed findings from https://www.metalsfocus.com/product/world-silver-survey/"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">the latest World Silver Survey, which includes final data for 2025 and forecasts for 2026. While the 2025 deficit was relatively small, he emphasized that the cumulative deficit over multiple years is far more important.

“What’s more relevant is the ongoing deficit in the marketplace,” he said.

Historical data support this view.

In 2022, the silver market recorded a deficit exceeding 250 million ounces, yet prices averaged https://www.moneymetals.com/silver-price";>below $22 per ounce.

In 2023, a 200 million ounce deficit corresponded with an average price just above $23. These figures show that annual deficits do not directly determine price movements.

Instead, the ongoing drawdown of above-ground stocks gradually tightens the market.

By 2026, cumulative deficits over several years are approaching the equivalent of https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/04/16/how-a-silver-shortage-sparked-a-historic-price-rally-004839";>an entire year of global mine production. This marks a sharp reversal from the 2010 to 2020 period, when silver stocks increased by more than 200 million ounces. The shift illustrates how quickly the supply picture has changed.

Industrial Silver Demand, Solar Thrifting, and AI Growth

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https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/04/23/silver-prices-rose-even-as-demand-slipped-004858";>Rising silver prices have led to increased efforts to reduce usage, particularly in the solar sector. Newman explained that manufacturers are pursuing thrift strategies because even brief price spikes create concern about future costs.

Technological changes are already reducing silver demand in photovoltaics. In heterojunction technology, silver usage has declined by about 85 percent since 2021 due to the adoption of silver-coated copper. This dramatic shift highlights how quickly the industry can adapt when prices rise.

As a result, photovoltaic demand is expected to fall from about 198 million ounces in 2024 to roughly 151 million ounces in 2026, a decline of around 19 percent. Despite this drop, overall industrial demand remains resilient.

Growth in other sectors is helping offset the decline. The expansion of artificial intelligence infrastructure, especially data centers, is driving strong demand with little evidence of substitution.

Newman noted that “there is an urgency to get these data centers installed… they don’t want to reduce the silver content.”

Additional support comes from electric vehicles, satellite technology, power distribution systems, and defense applications. Even with reduced solar demand, total industrial silver demand is expected to fall by only about 3 percent and remain above 600 million ounces.

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Precious Metals Market Outlook and Investor Takeaways

The conversation makes clear that precious metals markets in 2026 are being shaped by a complex mix of factors. Geopolitical tensions, shifting expectations for monetary policy, technological changes, and structural supply deficits are all influencing price behavior.

Short-term movements are increasingly tied to Federal Reserve policy and interest rate expectations.

At the same time, long-term fundamentals such as tightening supply and steady industrial demand continue to provide underlying support. Regional differences in investor behavior and the growing role of retail participants add further complexity.

As Newman emphasized during the discussion, “The key takeaway is uncertainty.”

Understanding precious metals markets now requires attention to both immediate macroeconomic signals and the deeper structural trends that are unfolding over time.

For those who want to follow https://www.linkedin.com/in/philip-newman-a048293/"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">Philip Newman’s work, Metals Focus publishes https://www.metalsfocus.com/product/precious-metals-weekly/"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">extensive research and market analysis on its website.

Investors can also stay connected with Mike Maharrey and the team at Money Metals through the Money Metals podcast and the company’s https://www.moneymetals.com/news";>ongoing market commentary and analysis.

Silver to $135… or Even $300? This Big Bank Thinks So…

Fri, 24 Apr 2026 00:00:00 EST

Welcome to this week’s market wrap podcast, I’m Mike Gleason

Coming up don’t we’ll have another wonderful interview, this time with Phillip Newman, founding partner and managing director of https://www.metalsfocus.com/"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">Metals Focus. Phillip recaps the incredible rally we saw since his last guest appearance with us late last fall which saw gold and silver skyrocket and what that and the subsequent correction that took place following has meant for the precious metals market.

Phillip then discusses where things are likely headed now given the backdrop of the war with Iran and the reemergence of inflation – both in today’s economy and in the near future given the potentially disastrous ramifications of the oil shock and likely energy crisis which may ensue.

Mike Maharrey’s guest also tells us how uncertainty surrounding industrial demand for silver may impact the price of the white metal from here on out so long as the Iran war continues, and how the different scenarios of the length of the war will have a positive or negative effect on poor man’s gold specifically.

So, be sure to stick around for another wonderful Money Metals interview with this week’s guest Phillip Newman of Metals Focus, coming up after this week’s market update. And as a reminder please download, like, rate and subscribe to this podcast wherever you consume this content.

Well, it seems being a silver bug could be going mainstream.

As we reported previously at Money Metals, Bank of America released an eye-popping silver forecast, saying the price could land anywhere between $135 to $309 by the end of this year.

Even the low end of that forecast would represent a 75 percent gain from the current level!

But $135 to $309 is also an extremely wide range for that forecast... this underscores the difficulty of reading the markets in such a volatile geopolitical period.

Bank of America head of metals research Michael Widmer bases his forecast on https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/03/25/what-is-the-gold-silver-ratio-why-should-we-pay-attention-to-it-003075";>the gold-silver ratio -- the number of ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold.

By the end of the year, the ratio had plunged to 61:1 before falling to roughly 50 early this year when silver briefly broke above $110.

The ratio has crept back up in recent weeks and currently sits around 60:1, the high end of the historical norm. However, Bank of America's analyst pointed out that during significant silver bull markets, that ratio has dropped far below the average.

That’s the nature of averages. Sometimes things run far below the norm, and sometimes far above. Over the last several years, the gold-silver ratio has tended to run above the historic average. It wouldn’t be shocking for it to drop significantly below that level.

Widmer points out that in 2011, at the peak of the Great Recession precious metals bull market, the gold-silver ratio dropped to 32:1. Assuming $5,000 gold, that would push the silver price to $135.

Of course, we’ve seen gold-silver ratios even lower. During the Hunt Brothers silver squeeze in 1980, the ratio fell to 14:1. Such a ratio would yield a silver price of $309 right now.

There is even more upside if you believe the gold bull market still has legs. Many mainstream banks forecast $6,000 gold this year.

“I’ve highlighted before that the gold market has been very overbought. But it's actually still underinvested,” Widner said earlier this year. “There is still a lot of room for gold as a diversification tool in portfolios.”

Precious metals make up about 4 percent of the total financial market. However, within the professional investment sector, high-net-worth investors hold only 0.5 percent of their assets in gold. Last year, Morgan Stanley CIO Michael Wilson came out with https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/10/07/seismic-shift-morgan-stanley-recommends-602020-portfolio-with-20-allocated-to-gold-004389";>an investment strategy that includes a 20 percent allocation to gold.

Even a small uptick in investment demand could drive the gold price higher. Widner said a 55 percent increase in gold investment would drive the metal to $8,000 an ounce. And that's the https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/04/20/wells-fargo-debasement-trade-could-drive-gold-to-8000-004850";>best-case scenario in Wells Fargo’s analysis.

If gold continues to move higher, it will almost certainly take silver with it. While a large percentage of silver demand comes from industrial offtake, it is still fundamentally viewed as a monetary metal, and it tends to track with gold over time.

A move to over $300 per ounce of silver may sound extreme, but these wild price moves aren’t unprecedented. Widner pointed out that silver more than tripled in 2011 while gold gained roughly 80 percent over the same 18-month stretch. He said he thinks 2026 sets up similarly, with gold’s momentum already well established.

More fundamentally, above-ground silver stockpiles have slowly but steadily drained over the past few years. This situation precipitated https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/12/29/silver-squeeze-20-drives-price-over-80-004576";>two silver squeezes that first drove prices above $50 and then took them to that January high of over $110.

A convergence of factors from market dynamics to logistical problems led to an unprecedented silver shortage. While the market dynamics that got us here might be difficult to untangle, the situation is about as basic as it gets.

There’s not enough silver.

The silver market recorded a supply deficit for the fifth consecutive year in 2025.

Last year, demand outstripped supply by over 40 million ounces (or 1,252 tonnes). That drove the 5-year market deficit to 716 million ounces. To put that into perspective, total silver mining output last year was 846 million ounces.

Metals Focus forecasts a 46.3-million-ounce supply deficit this year.

In total, there has been a rundown of nearly half a billion ounces in the last 15 years.

When silver demand outstrips mining and recycling output, silver users must tap into aboveground stocks. That generally means rising prices to incentivize those holding silver to give it up.

That means the environment is right for additional silver squeezes.

Silver over $300 is certainly a best-case scenario, but it is clearly not out of the question. And even if the metal doesn’t reach those lofty heights this year, there is plenty of reason to remain bullish.

Lastly here, before we get to the interview let’s take a look at the weekly market action and check in on where we stand currently with a few hours left in the trading week.

Gold is down a little more than $100 or 2.3% to come in at $4,732 an ounce. Silver is down nearly $5 an ounce or 5.7% to trade at $76.87. Platinum is off 4.2% to check in at $2,028. And finally, palladium is also down 4.2% and comes in at $1,512 an ounce as of this Friday midday recording.

Well now, without further delay let’s get right to our exclusive interview with a metals market insider.

Mike Maharrey: Greetings, I'm Mike Maharrey, and I'm pleased to be joined once again by Philip Newman. Philip is a founding partner and one of the managing directors at Metal's Focus, which is the go- to place for data and analysis relating to precious metals. So they do a lot of the legwork that gives us the supply and demand numbers that you often see. And they work with organizations such as the Silver Institute, the World Gold Council, the World Platinum Investment Council, and others to supply this very valuable data. How are you doing today, Philip?

Philip Newman: Pretty good. And it's very good to be back on your podcast. Much appreciated for having me again.

Mike Maharrey: Well, it's always a pleasure to have you. And as much as we use your data and work, we need to have you on from time to time just to kind of say thank you because we really do. What you guys do over at Metals Focus is absolutely invaluable. So we appreciate all of the hard work you and your folks do in getting all the data to us so that we can try to figure out what's going on in these crazy markets. So I'd like to just start with the Iran-US-Israel conflict because that's been probably the primary driver, at least short term of all of the markets at this point. It seems like every time Trump says something on his social media platform over there, the markets move one way or the other, so it's kind of crazy. But I'm curious just from a little bit broader perspective and from what you've seen in the metals market, are you surprised at all about the way metals have behaved throughout the conflict so far?

And has anything surprised you at all?

Philip Newman: Sure. I think first of all, we got to see that through the lens of the late January correction and just a speed with which gold and silver hit those new record highs, comfortable record highs as well in January. The speed of the rally, especially from mid-October through to late Jan, that the investment that attracted into the market with the correction. I think some investors were burnt by that. So, I think there was maybe a reticence to come back in. And I think what was also really interesting when the war broke out, I know some investors were, I think, disappointed that there was a more upside from both. Where was the safe haven action? But I think what we saw quite quickly was a very strong correlation breakout between spot gold and silver and Fed expectations in terms of where they will be setting rates or what they were talking about, especially for the balance of 2026.

So, I think what we're seeing is the war breaks out, even with the recent ceasefire, uncertainty about that. I think today's a brilliant example. April 21, in terms of expectations, would the ceasefire hold, Trump's threatening to start bumping Iran again? What does that mean for energy prices? What does that mean for inflation? And by extension, Fed expectations. Because Mike, if you go back pre-war, the markets were expecting perhaps up to two cuts before the end of this year. We then have the missiles start flying and very quickly a shift to expecting maybe a rate increase. So we will pivot in that regard. And I think where we have been recently, and I haven't checked today, if I'm honest, but we've been recently is for no rate cuts this year. And it could well be with that, as you pointed out, just as we started talking, gold is off very aggressively over a hundred bucks.

Silver is below $77. So it could well be that the markets could even be pivoting to one rate increase. We're even thinking about that for the end of this year. And of course, gold and silver don't provide a yield. And so that is weighing on both. And I think that's where we are, to be honest with you.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah, I think you're right on. And it's interesting, I did an article not too long ago looking at the performance of gold, particularly in past conflicts. And you kind of do see that there's an initial safe haven bump, and then other factors tend to drive the markets much more than the war itself. And one of the main things is the trajectory of monetary policy. So, I think you're right on target there. And it'll be interesting. I feel like the consensus was if we get through this quickly and energy prices don't spike too much, maybe we'll be all right. And of course, when we got the last CPI data, we had a huge spike in energy prices. I think gasoline was up 21%, if I remember correctly. So we definitely have seen that energy price surge. So, it'll be interesting to see how it kind of plays out.

I'm curious if, from your perspective, has the war fundamentally altered at this point your mid to longer term view of the metals markets? And if not, how long will this need to go on before we really start to see it kind of fundamentally altering the trajectory that we were kind of seeing maybe two months ago?

Philip Newman: Sure. I mean, I think those are really the $60 million questions, aren't they? When we put the forecast, the 2026 forecast together for the silver survey, that's now well over two weeks ago in terms of printing and courier times and so on. We had to come to a decision. I mean, what do we know against anyone else? We assumed a war would be short-lived and that informed our demand estimates. It informed our price expectations, and that was important because that also affected some of the price sensitive components of supply and demand for this year. But I think if the war is extended, if it goes well into late in the second quarter, into the third quarter, that could continue to weigh on prices for the reasons that we've talked about. Maybe that would actually then you're into maybe an environment of inflation expectations becoming or higher expectations of inflation becoming more entrenched.

And then from a Fed standpoint, that may force them to consider raising rates. Now, I think as we've seen, that isn't something that Trump is looking for. And so the pressure that he could put on the Fed could be really quite something to watch of great concern to the markets. We saw late last year, early this year, when there were concerns about Fed independence, that really sort of dollar come off. So in a sense, I've just described two dollar scenarios. One, war is extended, inflation remains high, looks to raise rates, not good for gold and silver. The flip side is if there's pressure and what form that pressure would take, I simply don't know. But if the markets believe there's a real risk to the Fed dependence, that could see the dollar come under pressure, which in turn could be gold and silver price positive.

But in terms of if the war, as I said, runs well into the second or into the third, that could see pressure on global growth, that could see downward expectations or revised downward expectations for some of the main areas, especially for industrial demand. So I think that's one of those risk factors out there. If you're having heightened price volatility, then that could be quite damaging for the likes of jewelry and silverware, and especially the portion which is concentrated in India, because that's the largest market for both commodities is in terms of Indian demand for jewelry and silverware. Bar demand and coin demand, a really interesting one, tends to respond well to price volatility, so we could see more upside there. So I think, Mike, I guess the key takeaway is uncertainty. That's what you're introducing there, more uncertainty in supply and demand.

Mike Maharrey: I think that's exactly the word that was running through my head as you're talking about that. And then you add to the fact that on one side, you've got the inflation worries that the Fed has to deal with. And then on the other side, you have tremendous amount of debt. You've got corporate debt, you've got government debt. And so, that is not friendly to a high-interest rate environment. So, how does the Fed walk this tightrope? And I think for me, sometimes I feel like you can kind of read the tea leaves with the central bank. I feel pretty lost right now. I'm not going to lie. It's really difficult to get a handle. And I honestly think if you asked them in an honest moment, they'd probably say the same thing, that they don't really know where it's going to go either. I think that would probably be a fair answer.

Philip Newman: Yes. And I think that even if the war is short-lived, that doesn't remove the uncertainty out of there. I mean, you've touched on it in terms of debt levels. They are a significant concern for the market. I think that's a fantastic point to make. I think also, will we see the return of tariffs? Clearly, Trump's got other things to think about right now, but that was such a feature of last year, that cliche phrase, but it's so true, this weaponization of tariffs, does that return? And I think the other really important point, unless it becomes very US-centric, but it's so relevant with your midterm elections, I think early November. Right now, there seems to be a bit of a swing in some locations to the Democrats. November's obviously a very long time away, but if that continues, what does Trump do to perhaps mobilize his base?

So, I think that could also be a concern as well. So, there's a lot out there as well. And I think the geopolitics extends into other jurisdictions. There are certainly concerns out in East Asia one has to think about as well. So there's still a lot out there, even if the war is short-lived.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah, absolutely. You still got the conflict in Ukraine with Russia and issues of NATO. I mean, there's so much out there as far as the geopolitical stuff goes.

So, here's something, and this is a little bit anecdotal on my part, but kind of watching the movement of both gold and silver, I tend to start working before the US markets open, and so you're catching the later day in Asian trading and maybe midday in European trading. And what I've noticed oftentimes is that gold will be up a little bit in that early part. And then when the US markets open, it's like, boom, it's going to go down. It tends to go down with the North American markets. And then I've also seen some of the ETF data showing that Asia is the only place that we continue to see inflows of gold into ETFs in March. So I'm curious if I have this perception that the Asian markets have remained a little bit more bullish on gold through this conflict than say North America and maybe even European markets, and there's just a little bit of a dichotomy there.

Is that something that I'm just making up or does that stand out in the data that you've seen?

Philip Newman: I think from the goal point view, yeah, absolutely. I think that's been quite interesting. And even if I think about the retail market, generally from a gold standpoint, that has been pretty strong. You've certainly seen the decent gains in lots of jurisdictions. I think it's been very widespread in terms of the coin and bar demand, for sure. So I think that's been quite fascinating. I think what's been really interesting from an institutional standpoint is the heightened volatility that you see from a price standpoint can often mean that institutional investors, if looking to invest on the CME, whether it's in the futures or the options, whatever it may be, their exposure in, say, in value terms can be less than it's been previously because the volatility is so much greater that a single trade can perhaps generate a return when compared to, I don't know, six months ago, they'd have to put on say three or four trades to get a similar return because the volatility now is so much greater.

So, I think that's been an interesting change that we've seen in the market over the past couple of months. And then you think about some of these operations, again, I'm thinking more of an institutional standpoint with the value at risk models and with that correction that we touched on earlier in late Jan that was so sizeable for both gold and silver, that has, I think, curtailed the ability of some of these institutional investors to invest to the same degree that they would've done in both markets before you had that correction. So, you've got different dynamics playing out from institutional standpoint versus a retail standpoint. And I think what was really interesting, Mike, when you look at the run up, I think especially silver in price, again, for mid-October, especially through to late Jan, I think a lot of that was more driven by retail activity, day trading really ramped up.

You see that inactivity on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, you see that in the CME main contract, for example. So that was, I think, some very interesting different dynamics that we've seen play out.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah, it's definitely been interesting. That's a good word to describe everything in the markets lately. So you mentioned the World Silver Survey that recently came out, and you guys do that in conjunction with the Silver Institute, and I've already gotten several good articles out of it, so thank you for that. But I'm curious if this was kind of the final data for 2025, and then we've got some forecasting for 2026. I'm curious, as you went through that final data, was there anything that stood out to you from last year that maybe surprised you or really stood out in terms of how silver ran through 2025?

Philip Newman: Sure. I think there's a few things, and some people may focus on the deficit being pretty modest for 2025. From our point of view, that's a little less relevant. What's more relevant is that ongoing deficit in the marketplace. I think what you see really is very little correlation between the surplus or deficit in any one year and price action. If you look at, for example, even go back as far as 2022, a record deficit over a quarter of a billion ounces, yet the silver price average less than $22, and you follow that through 2023 deficit, 200 million ounces, the price averages just over $23 an ounce. So I think that's really interesting, and that's why that was interesting for the conclusion, the fact that one of our big takeaways is that you had a pretty small deficit, but really it was that, I guess, that ongoing deficit and erosion of those stocks that helped to generate that squeeze in October.

I think one of the other things, Mike, that stands out is for industrial demand, we only had a decline of about 3% last year, and that's despite about a 6% drop in photovoltaics, despite those fireworks the end of the year, not just from a price standpoint, but what it did to lease rates as well.

Even if we put aside that incredible spike in October, yes, lease rates came down pretty quickly, but they still remained well above historical norms well into April this year, I would say. And the industries had to contend with that. So, I think that has been really quite fascinating.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah, it's interesting. One of the charts that is in the packet that you guys sent out shows that cumulative deficit over time. And it's interesting to look at that chart because you can see where you're running surpluses, not big surpluses, but you had the ... And then it's like there's this big dip and it really is compelling to see how much it is accumulated over time. And as you say, any one given year, okay, but when you start piling them up one year, two, year, three, year, four years, it becomes quite substantial. And I think if my math is correct, if the projected deficit this year holds, then we're looking at over the last six years, basically an entire year of mine output, which that's a lot of silver when you start to think about in those terms.

Philip Newman: Yes, no, absolutely. Yeah. I mean, the deficit this year, as you all have seen, is slightly greater than the last year, pretty similar in the scheme of things. But obviously, as we've touched on, there's a lot of uncertainty out there, a lot of moving parts. I think it'd be really fascinating when we come in November to present even the interim and silver interim findings in New York, the flash estimates for this year, where does the deficit sit against what we were thinking for this year? I think the other point to make, those charts you highlight, I mean, I know when I presented last week, I actually said that these charts showing both the annual deficit and the cumulative deficit are two of the most important in the presentation. And I would encourage anyone listening if you've got an interest in the silver market, please do head over to the Silver Institute website.

Hopefully this presentation will be online for you to review. I think the other point, Mike, if I can make this one, is that yes, you're absolutely right where we are in terms of this deficit, but it's worth just remembering that if you compare, look at start in 2010 and go through to 2020, you had about over a 200 million ounce rise in stocks. So, that's an incredible change in position from the turn of 2020 to 25, dramatic change in the marketplace in just a few years.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah, absolutely. I'm curious, we've had much higher prices over the last several months. And so we're starting to hear talk about, especially in the solar industry of thrifting and substitution. And I'm curious from your standpoint, how realistic is the substitution thing? I mean, can they realistically substitute for a lot of the silver or is it ... I've heard conflicting things. I've heard, yeah, they can switch it over pretty easily. I've heard, no, no, they have to retool and so it's not as easy. Where do we stand in terms of price going up, solar panel manufacturers looking for alternatives?

Philip Newman: Sure. I think the first thing to bear in mind is that the industry was struggling in terms of high prices in very late 2025, let alone when we were getting into what we saw the fireworks of in late January. And if you're in the industry and you've seen even for a day, over 120 bucks, it doesn't matter if prices in weekend consistently, you are going to try and thrift because you're worried that will happen again. That's why when we saw, what is it, 2011, 12 round there, silver went to 50 bucks, and after that prices really struggled for a long time, you saw thrifting. It wasn't perhaps aggressive thrifting for a while, but it was never ending. It was successive years of thrifting because they were worried that you're going to see $50 return. So it's just part of the parcel of the industry, but that was more thrifting.

What we've seen over the past few years is for, I guess there's a technology called HJT, that's what it stands for. Again, I'd encourage people to look at the silver survey. We do speak a little bit, we go into a bit more depth about some of these technologies. Now, HJT is a very small part of the market, maybe now 4% of the use of silver in photovoltaics, but when it was touted in say 2019, around there that this was coming online, it was viewed as a really exciting area because the loadings were so high. What we've seen though is that that particular HJT technology is basically moved to silver coated copper. And so even if we look as recently, if we were to benchmark say the amount of silver used in HJT in say 2021, when it first was really coming onto the market, and we compare that to now, the amount of silver is down by about 85% in that one technology, 85%.

And that again is because of the silver coated popper, and that's worked. It may be a really small part of the market, but it's commercially in play. But again, small part of the market. Most of the market now is this top-con technology that I think is about 75, maybe just a bit under that, but say in the low 70s in terms of a percentage share of the marketplace, heavy silver user. Even there, we've seen, again, if we look at, again, benchmarking 2021 with where we are, our expectations for now, that's half the amount of silver's half in that technology over that five-year period.

But what they were now looking at is can they deploy the technology that's worked so well for HJT into Topcon? Can they introduce silver coated copper? But what you've also had talk about in January is, can you replace some of the silver with copper? Now, that really would not have been a conversation last year, even at 50 or $60 silver because of the trade-off to a lower efficiency module. But silver now in the 70, $80 range, then that really is something the industry will be looking at. Now, let's be clear, it's not going to be a wholesale replacing of silver, but you could ... I think the days of 2024 was when we saw a record level of silver demand in the photovoltaic market, it got up to, by basis, our estimates, about 198 million ounces of silver, but our forecast for this year is about 151.

So 26 versus 25, that's a job about 19%. And we think you're going to see further declines going forward in the use of silver in photovoltaics.

Mike Maharrey: Very interesting. Is the AI build out taking up some of that slack?

Philip Newman: Absolutely. Completely. Yeah, absolutely. You're seeing in the AI in terms of this desire, this urgency for investment in data centers, from what we understand, there's no thrifting. There is an urgency to get these data centers installed. They don't want to reduce the silver content as far as we see, so that I think is a really interesting one. You look at something like there's growth in the satellite market in the power distribution area, in the factory electric vehicles, yes, there's slow growth in the BEVs, but there's still growth. And I think at some point, especially with energy prices where they are, for some markets, that may encourage, again, more of a switch out of hybrids or ice into BEVs. And so especially when you think about the likes of when silver matters in terms of from a safety point of view, so in a car, in the braking systems or the airbags, you're not going to move away from silver.

In the defense industry where quality matters, you're not going to thrift. So there's a lot of areas. And I think that you really have, I think now to point on the head. So despite that 19% forecast from us for PV this year, we've only got a 3% drop in global silver industrial demand. So yes, it's a decline, but it's a very modest one. You've still got a market which is comfortably north of 600 million ounces for this year. So, I think that really speaks to a lot of resilience in that marketplace.

Mike Maharrey:

Yeah, absolutely. You mentioned the military application. I thought that went through my head as they've blown up an awful lot of silver in the last few weeks. I mean, I probably shouldn't laugh about something like that, but I mean, it is a reality. All of those missiles have silver in them. And don't think that once you blow them up, you can recover the silver.

Philip Newman: No, that's definitely foregone. So, you certainly got a replacement there, and that's quite interesting. And I mean, just to as a slight segue, how we look at the market is we speak to globally the main manufacturers of silver powder and pastes, silver oxide, whatever it may be, that intermediate product. And so that gives us a good idea about the global use of silver in industrial areas. It's not always easy to isolate the end use, but we certainly, I think, see more going into defense, it's just not something we can quantify.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah. I've never found anybody who is willing to quantify how much silver is used in the defense industry. That seems to be a pretty big mystery, but everybody agrees that there's quite a bit, and I think that stands to reason when you consider all of the electronic components in a modern military. Well, we've about run ourselves out of time, but before we go, I do want to have you let folks know where they can follow the work of Metals Focus, point them to the website and any other place that you may like people to go.

Philip Newman: Sure. I mean, the starting point will be metalsfocus.com. I mean, you've very kindly, Mike touched on some of the areas we do work for, the likes of the World Gold Council, obviously the Silver Institute, the context of this podcast, and the World Platinum Investment Council. We also put a lot of research out. So we have our precious metals weekly, India monthly. So, if it's interesting seeing those, do come through the website and then align to that, we do a lot of work and on services, on mine costs, doorway flows, one year, five year forecast. There's a lot out there to keep us busy, but the starting point for all of that would be our website at mellowfocus.com.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah, absolutely. And I want to reiterate the amount and the quality of work that you guys do. I mean, virtually, I would say I'd be pretty comfortable in saying every single week I'm using data that is coming from you guys in my reporting and analysis. So absolutely invaluable. And I appreciate all that you do because I know it's hard work and you've got a lot of really smart folks that are boots on the ground all over the world gathering this information. So folks, if you're following precious metals at all, you definitely need to be engaged with what is going on over at Metals Focus. And I appreciate the work you do, Philip. And I'm not just saying that because you're on my show, but it's a very sincere compliment. Well, with that, we'll wrap this up. I know you're way ahead of me in the time zone, so you're probably about ready to wrap up your day and I'm ready for lunch.

So, I'm going to let you go, but I do appreciate you being on. And again, thank you for the work that you do and we'll definitely have you back on here in the near future as things continue to unfold.

Philip Newman: Well, thank you. Appreciate it and look forward to next time.

Mike Maharrey: All right. Thank you.

Always great analysis from our friends there at Metals Focus and I hope you enjoyed that interview.

Well, that will do it for this week. Be sure to check back next Friday for our next Weekly Market Wrap Podcast. And remember to tune in as well to the Money Metals Midweek Memo, hosted by Mike Maharrey.

To check out any of our audio programs just visit https://www.moneymetals.com/podcasts";>MoneyMetals.com/podcasts or find them on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, or wherever you listen to your favorite podcasts. And as a big help to us we would ask you to please like, subscribe, download and rate our podcasts. Doing so helps us extend the reach of this material.

Until next time, this has been Mike Gleason with Money Metals Exchange, thanks for listening and have a wonderful weekend everybody.

How Much Silver Can I Legally Own? US Rules Explained - Money Metals

Fri, 24 Apr 2026 00:00:00 EST

Many investors worry that the federal government could place limits on silver ownership, which raises questions about reporting, taxes, and future restrictions. That leads many investors to ask: how much silver can I legally own?

Most Americans can legally own as much physical silver as they want. There is no general federal cap on private silver ownership. The real issues are not ownership limits, but reporting rules, taxes, and how certain silver transactions are handled.

The Direct Answer: Is There a Legal Limit on Silver Ownership?

For most Americans, the answer is simple: there is no general federal law limiting how much physical silver you may own. Investors are usually free to buy silver bars, rounds, and coins in whatever quantity they choose. The confusion starts when people mistake reporting rules, dealer compliance rules, or tax obligations for actual ownership limits.

Most of these regulations pertain to precious metals dealers, not private investors. These entities operate under strict anti-money-laundering and recordkeeping rules.

For example, FinCEN regulations apply to dealers in precious metals. That means that businesses which receive more than $10,000 in cash in one transaction, or related transactions, generally must file Form 8300 with the IRS and FinCEN. That requirement is about reporting large cash payments, not restricting how much silver a buyer may possess.

In other words, the law regulates how transactions are documented, not whether you can own the silver in the first place. A better question is: what rules apply when you buy, sell, store, or report silver?

What Types of Silver Can You Legally Own?

Investors can own several types of silver assets. Generally, those break down into a few different categories:

Privately minted bullion bars and rounds
Government minted silver bullion coins
Junk silver and collectible (or numismatic) coins

Bars and rounds tend to come from private mints, such as the PAMP Suisse, Geiger, or Sunshine Mints. Bars tend to look just like you would expect: they have a rectangular shape, usually with an obverse and reverse design that shows the mint, weight, and silver purity.

Bars are often favorites for bulk investors. They allow investors to purchase silver in large weights with lower premiums. Rounds differ from bars in that they have the same general shape and weight as coins, but do not come from government mints.

Government minted coins come from sovereign mints, such as the US Mint, the Royal Mint, or the Royal Canadian Mint. These coins have a symbolic face value on them and hold legal tender status in their respective countries of origin.

In contrast, https://www.moneymetals.com/pre-1965-silver-dimes-and-quarters/35";>junk silver coins only have 90% silver content. They also do not weigh one troy ounce.

It is also worth noting that collectible, or numismatic, coins work differently from bullion products. These coins do not derive most of their value from silver content or movements in the spot price. Rather, their value comes from their grade, condition, and rarity. You can learn more about these coins from https://www.ngccoin.com/"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">entities like NGC.

There are no federal laws that place a cap on ownership of any of these products. However, there are compliance considerations that investors should know about.

Silver Held Personally vs Retirement Accounts vs Vault Programs

Silver can be owned in several ways, but the biggest differences come down to control, storage, tax treatment, and ease of access. The table below shows the differences between these methods.

Category	Silver Held Personally	Silver in Retirement Accounts	Silver in Vault Programs
Who controls it	You control the metal directly.	The account is controlled through an IRA or other eligible retirement structure, with a custodian or trustee involved.	A third-party storage provider or dealer holds the silver on your behalf.
Where it is stored	At home, in a safe, or in a bank safe deposit box.	Must generally be held through an approved custodian or trustee rather than by the account owner personally for IRA purposes.	Stored in a professional vault, often allocated or segregated depending on the program terms.
Access to the silver	Immediate physical access.	Access is restricted by retirement-account rules; taking possession can be treated as a distribution depending on the arrangement.	Usually not immediate; delivery or liquidation depends on the provider’s procedures.
Tax treatment	No special tax shelter just for holding it personally; taxes usually matter when you sell.	Traditional IRA taxes are generally deferred until distribution, while Roth treatment depends on qualified-distribution rules.	Usually taxed based on your ownership structure, not simply because the silver is in a vault.
Eligible silver types	Bars, rounds, coins, junk silver, and collectibles, subject to normal laws.	Only certain coins and bullion qualify; bullion must meet fineness rules and be in the physical possession of a bank or approved non-bank trustee.	Depends on the provider; many programs focus on investment-grade bullion products.
Main advantage	Maximum direct control and privacy.	Potential tax advantages for long-term retirement savers.	Professional storage and less need to secure large quantities yourself.
Main drawback	You handle security, insurance, and storage risk.	More rules, less direct access, and mistakes can trigger taxes or penalties.	Counterparty risk, storage fees, and reliance on the provider’s contract terms.
Best fit for	Buyers who want direct possession.	Investors focused on retirement planning and tax treatment.	Investors who want physical silver without home storage burdens.

Federal Laws vs Reporting Rules

There is no general federal limit on how much silver a private investor may own. The confusion usually starts when investors mistake reporting rules, dealer compliance obligations, or tax treatment for actual ownership restrictions. In practice, the law is much more focused on how certain transactions are documented than on whether you are allowed to possess silver in the first place.

Most of these rules apply to precious metals dealers rather than ordinary buyers. Dealers operate under anti-money-laundering and recordkeeping requirements designed to track certain high-value cash transactions and sales. That is why silver ownership can feel more regulated than it really is. The ownership itself is generally legal, but the way silver is bought, sold, or moved can trigger paperwork.

For example, dealers that receive more than $10,000 in cash in a single transaction, or in related transactions, generally must file https://www.irs.gov/businesses/small-businesses-self-employed/irs-form-8300-reference-guide"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">Form 8300 with the IRS and FinCEN. This rule applies to the transaction, not to the simple fact that a buyer owns silver.

Likewise, some large sales back to dealers may trigger Form 1099-B reporting, depending on the product and quantity involved. Physical silver may also be subject to capital gains tax when it is sold for a profit.

The key point is simple: federal law does not generally cap silver ownership, but certain transactions can create reporting and tax obligations.

When Buying Silver May Trigger Paperwork

For most buyers, purchasing silver is straightforward. In many ordinary transactions, especially those paid by wire transfer, credit card, or personal check, there may be no special IRS reporting tied directly to the purchase itself. That is why many investors buy silver without ever encountering extra paperwork.

The main exception involves large cash transactions. When a dealer receives more than $10,000 in cash, whether in one deal or in related transactions, that dealer generally must file Form 8300. This is an anti-money-laundering rule, and it is aimed at documenting large cash payments rather than restricting silver purchases.

Investors should also understand that trying to break up payments to avoid the reporting threshold can create legal problems of its own. That practice, known as structuring, is illegal. In other words, it is not the ownership of silver that draws scrutiny, but the way certain transactions are arranged.

When Selling Silver May Trigger Reporting

Selling silver is often the point where taxes and reporting matter most for private investors. If you sell silver for more than you paid, you may owe capital gains tax on the profit. Because physical silver is generally treated as a collectible for tax purposes, long-term gains can be taxed differently than gains on many other investments.

In some cases, sales back to a dealer may also trigger Form 1099-B reporting. That usually depends on the type of silver product and the quantity being sold. For example, large sales of certain silver bars, rounds, or 90% U.S. silver coins may fall under dealer reporting rules.

It is also important to remember that not every payment method is treated the same way. ACH transfers, personal checks, and wire transfers are generally not considered cash for Form 8300 purposes. Some silver products, https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/silver/coins/american-silver-eagle";>such as American Silver Eagles, are also commonly treated differently under dealer reporting practices.

For most investors, the practical lesson is simple: buying silver is often easy, but selling large quantities or selling at a profit is where paperwork and taxes become much more relevant.

State-Level Considerations for Silver Owners

Even when federal law does not limit silver ownership, state laws can still affect what you pay to buy it and how certain transactions are taxed. Only five states have no statewide sales tax, which can make silver purchases more tax-efficient in those jurisdictions. These include:

Alaska
Delaware
Montana
New Hampshire
Oregon

Other states may provide exemptions for precious metals products, while some specifically tax them. The Sound Money Index issues reports every year that show the legal status of precious metals across several states; referencing the most recent index can help you determine what your state’s laws are.

Why Local Rules Matter

Federal law does not generally limit how much silver you can own, but certain large transactions can trigger reporting and tax rules.

For example, states may have variable tax penalties. Buying in a state without a tax exemption can immediately decrease the net value of an investment compared to a tax-free neighboring state.

Reporting requirements may also vary. Even if the federal government does not require reporting on small purchases, state tax authorities may track purchases for state sales or use tax purposes.

Local tax add-ons also may apply. Even in states where the state-level sales tax is exempt, local municipalities (cities/counties) may still apply their own separate state sales on precious metals bullion, including silver.

There is an ongoing conversation among legislators about how precious metals should be treated in tax laws. Some states have recently repealed or narrowed tax exemptions, and others have given precious metals legal tender status. That leads to another question: could silver ownership laws change in the future?

Could Silver Ownership Laws Change in the Future?

Today’s legal framework aims more at transaction reporting, anti-money-laundering compliance, and tax enforcement than at limiting how much silver an investor can own. However, some investors with an eye toward history remain anxious that this could change.

Two major events in history fuel that fear. The first is Franklin Roosevelt’s 1933 gold measures. During that period, President Roosevelt issued Executive Order 6102, which required Americans to deliver almost all gold bullion, coin, and certificates to the Federal Reserve by May 1, 1933.

The context of this decision was the Great Depression. As trust in the dollar rapidly declined, many Americans hoarded gold whenever possible. Roosevelt hoped to prevent hoarding and increase the government’s money supply, offering $20.67 per ounce.

Silver also suffered at the hands of federal law. In similar circumstances, the 1960s saw a period of increasing mistrust in the dollar, with many Americans hoarding silver coins. To combat this, the federal government ceased the minting of constitutional silver coins in 1965. Note, however, that this did not limit silver ownership.

Today, such shifts are not only unlikely, but a bit out of place. At the time of the previous changes, gold and silver still played a critical role in the monetary system. The changes in their status occurred specifically to combat specific economic circumstances that gold and silver no longer have any role in.

As a result, future bans on gold or silver seem highly unlikely. That does not mean they are impossible. Congress and federal agencies can change laws and regulations.

Nevertheless, such a drastic change would require a major political and economic trigger, followed by clear legal action. For now, silver investors are generally dealing with reporting rules, not confiscation risk.

Best Practices for Owning Silver Legally and Privately

For now, most Americans can legally buy and hold physical silver without facing a general ownership cap. That requires potential investors to know the best practices for owning silver.

There are several things you can do to ensure you remain compliant with federal and state laws. First, and perhaps most importantly, buy silver from reputable dealers.

Reputable dealers provide silver at the going market rate, not exorbitant hike-ups or too-good-to-be-true deals. They have trusted reputations in the precious metals industry, which helps you ensure you receive authentic silver products. These dealers also have expansive inventories that give you several options for investing in silver.

Next, keep invoices and transaction records. This is a good practice for any investor, as it helps track your financial dealings. It can be helpful in the event that you do need to report your silver purchases.

Make sure you understand tax treatments of silver before you sell any silver holdings. The earnings you receive will be subject to capital gains tax, as well as any additional taxes your state may place on the earnings.

Finally, investors should store silver securely and make sure they understand what insurance coverage, if any, applies. The table below shows the different storage options and how they handle insurance:

Storage Method	How It Works	Is Silver Usually Insured?	Key Insurance Note
Home storage	You keep silver in your house, often in a safe or hidden location.	Usually not fully insured by default.	Standard homeowners policies often have low sublimits for bullion, silver, and coins unless you add extra coverage or a scheduled endorsement.
Bank safe deposit box	You rent a box at a bank and store silver there.	Usually no.	FDIC insurance does not cover safe deposit boxes or their contents. Some protection may exist through the bank’s contract or your own homeowners or renters policy, but it is not automatic.
Professional vault or depository	A third-party bullion vault stores your silver in an allocated, segregated, or pooled arrangement.	Often yes.	Many major depositories advertise all-risk insurance for metals in custody, but coverage depends on the provider and storage agreement. Verify what is insured, by whom, and under what limits.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is there a federal limit on how much silver you can own?

No, there is no general federal law that caps how much physical silver most Americans can own. The legal issues are usually tied to reporting, taxes, and transaction rules rather than ownership itself.

Do silver purchases have to be reported to the IRS?

Most routine silver purchases are not automatically reported just because you buy them. Reporting rules usually come into play for certain cash transactions, large sales back to dealers, or taxable gains.

Can you travel with silver across state lines or internationally?

You can generally transport silver across state lines, but large movements of value may raise practical and legal considerations. If you take more than $10,000 in value out of the country, declaration rules may apply.

Can the government confiscate silver the way it once restricted gold?

There is no current broad federal silver confiscation program in the United States. While laws can change, today’s rules focus much more on taxation, reporting, and compliance than on banning physical silver ownership.

Final Takeaway: How Much Silver Can I Legally Own?

For most Americans, the answer to "how much silver can I legally own" is simple: there is no general federal limit on how much physical silver you can own. The real legal questions are not about ownership caps, but about how certain transactions are reported, how gains may be taxed, and how silver is stored or transported.

That distinction matters. Many first-time buyers assume silver ownership is tightly restricted, when in reality the rules are usually more about compliance than possession. If you understand the basics of reporting thresholds, recordkeeping, and tax treatment, owning silver is much more straightforward than many investors expect.

In the end, 'how much silver can I legally own' is the right question to ask at the start, but not the only one that matters. A better long-term question is whether you understand the rules that apply when you buy, sell, store, or move your silver. Once you do, physical silver can become a practical way to diversify assets, preserve purchasing power, and hold a tangible store of value.

Incentives Matter: Minimum Wage Edition

Fri, 24 Apr 2026 00:00:00 EST

This is wild news. Just shocking. I wouldn’t believe it if I hadn’t read it with my own two eyes.

The state of California levied a $ 20-per-hour minimum wage for fast-food workers, and it led to “negative outcomes.”

Wow! Just wow!

Oh, wait. This isn’t shocking at all. Do you know why?

Incentives matter!

When he signed the minimum wage hike into law back in 2023, California Governor Gavin Newsom insisted the new wage floor would help fast-food workers cope with rising prices. And you know, that might be true – for the ones who kept their jobs.

And even a lot of them aren’t better off.

By the way, neither is the consumer.

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According to a report by researchers at the University of California, Santa Cruz, the minimum wage led to a host of unintended consequences.

"The results indicate a plethora of negative outcomes such as higher menu prices for consumers, reductions in employee working hours, widespread elimination of overtime and loss of benefits for employees.”

Some workers are no longer workers, which underscores the fact that the real minimum wage is always zero.

This isn’t just speculation by some nerds with calculators. The data reveals the loss of fast-food jobs. According to BLS data, the sector shed 10,700 jobs between June 2023 and June 2024 – the year after passage of the bill.

And researchers say this exodus is accelerating.

"Further decreases in employee opportunities are being driven by automation, and the adoption of labor replacement technologies is accelerating."

Meanwhile, menu prices rose 14.5 percent after the minimum wage became law.

Now, our boy Gavin is having nothing to do with this gloomy report. The governor’s office contacted Fox News and insisted the analysis of the study was flawed, and it was not peer-reviewed. A Newsom spokesperson called the claims “flat wrong.”

"The facts are clear: higher wages are strengthening our economy and lifting workers out of poverty."

That's a loose use of the word "facts."

In a game of dueling studies, the governor’s office sent another analysis from the University of California, Berkeley that shows wage increases of up to 11 percent and growth in the number of fast-food establishments.

Oddly, the minimum wage was raised from $16 to $20 – a 25 percent increase.

Of course, nobody denies that minimum wage laws help some people. But what about the people who lose their jobs?

I should also note that analyzing the impact of a minimum wage is difficult because there are so many factors impacting employment. It’s tough to isolate the effect of a single dynamic. Job losses due to a minimum wage could be obscured by other factors in the economy boosting employment.

This is why it’s important to understand basic economic principles.

Because here’s the rub: if you have a high school level of economic knowledge, you could have predicted job losses and rising prices with an imposed wage hike. It’s very basic supply and demand.

Unfortunately, most politicians don’t even have a rudimentary grasp of economics. They either can’t comprehend that rising prices reduce demand when everything else is equal, or they somehow imagine that these basic economic laws cease to operate when it comes to labor. (They don’t.)

So, Newsom’s office might be right. The Cal Santa Cruz report may have some flawed analysis. But I don’t need a report to tell me a price floor has negative economic impacts because I’ve read (many) economic books.

However, government people seem incapable of learning because they keep doubling down on these asinine policies.

The City of Los Angeles decided to help, and the local government imposed a $30 minimum wage for hotel and airport workers. The Hotel Association of Los Angeles commissioned a study that found hotels plan to or have already eliminated 6 percent of their positions. That's around 650 workers who were “helped” right to the unemployment line.

!!--Product-Random-Best-All--!!

So, sure, some workers in LA will benefit. Politicians will point at them and run victory laps. Meanwhile, the people harmed by the policy will languish in the shadows, pretty much unseen. And sadly, these are generally workers on the margin - youngsters and those with fewer skills.

Politicians never talk about these people. They just run around doing victory laps, claiming they're helping the poor and downtrodden.

This calls to mind http://bastiat.org/en/twisatwins.html"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">French economist Frédéric Bastiat, who reminds us that, “Between a good and a bad economist this constitutes the whole difference — the one takes account of the visible effect; the other takes account both of the effects which are seen, and also of those which it is necessary to foresee.”

Let me tell you, there are a lot of bad economists out there. And it seems like most of them found their way into government.

I want to reiterate a very important point. You need to understand the basic economic principles to draw economic conclusions. We’re not talking about chemistry here. We’re talking about human behavior, and that’s nearly impossible to quantify. I can massage numbers and spin data to prove just about anything. If you don’t understand the underlying dynamics, I can fool you. But if you grasp the principles, you can look at wonky data and immediately know – yup, that data is wonky.

I’m not saying there is no use for data-driven research in economics, but you darn sure better understand the principles before you lean too heavily on it.

Economics is fundamentally about human action. People act. They act in response to incentives. Ergo – incentives matter.

$300 Silver? Bank of America Says Maybe

Thu, 23 Apr 2026 00:00:00 EST

Bank of America recently released an eye-popping silver forecast, saying the price could land anywhere between $135 to $309 by the end of the year.

You’ll note that even the low end of that forecast would represent a 75 percent gain from the current level.

You’ll also note the extremely wide range for that forecast. This underscores the difficulty of reading the markets in such a volatile geopolitical period.

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Bank of America head of metals research Michael Widmer bases his forecast on https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/03/25/what-is-the-gold-silver-ratio-why-should-we-pay-attention-to-it-003075";>the gold-silver ratio. This ratio reflects the number of ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold, given the current spot price of both metals.

In the modern era, the gold-silver ratio has averaged between 40:1 and 60:1. Through the first 10 months of 2025, the gold-silver ratio was historically high, averaging 91:1. The ratio peaked in April at 107:1. By the end of the year, the ratio had plunged to 61:1 before falling into the sub-50s early this year. This indicates a significant correction in the silver price.

The ratio has crept back up in recent weeks and currently sits around 60:1, the high end of the historical norm. However, Widmer pointed out that during significant silver bull markets, that ratio has dropped far below the average. That’s the nature of averages. Sometimes things run far below the norm, and sometimes far above. Over the last several years, the gold-silver ratio has tended to run above the historic average. It wouldn’t be shocking for it to drop significantly below that level.

Widmer points out that in 2011, at the peak of the Great Recession precious metals bull market, the gold-silver ratio dropped to 32:1. Assuming $5,000 gold, that would push the silver price to $135.

However, we’ve seen gold-silver ratios even lower. During the Hunt Brothers silver squeeze in 1980, the ratio fell to 14:1. That would yield a silver price of $309.

Silver's Link to Gold

There is even more upside if you believe the gold bull market still has legs. Many mainstream banks forecast $6,000 gold this year.

“I’ve highlighted before that the gold market has been very overbought. But it's actually still underinvested,” Widner said earlier this year. “There is still a lot of room for gold as a diversification tool in portfolios.”

Even a small uptick in investment demand could drive the gold price higher. Widner said a 55 percent increase in gold investment would drive the metal to $8,000 an ounce. Notably, this is https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/04/20/wells-fargo-debasement-trade-could-drive-gold-to-8000-004850";>a best-case scenario in Wells Fargo’s analysis.

Not Enough Silver

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A move to over $300 per ounce of silver may sound extreme, but these wild price moves aren’t unprecedented. Keep in mind that a squeeze pushed the metal to $121 on January 29. Widner pointed out that silver more than tripled in 2011 while gold gained roughly 80 percent over the same 18-month stretch. He said he thinks 2026 sets up similarly, with gold’s momentum already well established.

More fundamentally, there is an ongoing shortage of silver. That precipitated https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/12/29/silver-squeeze-20-drives-price-over-80-004576";>two silver squeezes that first drove prices above $50 and then took them to that January high.

There’s not enough silver.

The silver market recorded a supply deficit for the fifth consecutive year in 2026.

Last year, demand outstripped supply by 40.2 million ounces (1,252 tonnes). That drove the 5-year market deficit to 716 million ounces. To put that into perspective, total silver mining output last year was 846 million ounces.

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Metals Focus forecasts a 46.3-million-ounce supply deficit this year.

Before this string of successive market deficits, there was a cumulative above-ground stock rise of 243 million ounces between 2010 and 2020. Taken together, there has been a stock rundown of around 473 million ounces in the last 15 years.

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When silver demand outstrips mining and recycling output, silver users must tap into aboveground stocks. That generally means rising prices to incentivize those holding silver to give it up.

That means the environment is right for additional silver squeezes.

What Is the Best Precious Metal to Invest In? A Practical Guide for 2026 - Money Metals

Thu, 23 Apr 2026 00:00:00 EST

Most investors asking “what's the best precious metal to invest in?” aren't looking for a history lesson. They are trying to solve a real problem.

Inflation is still eating away at purchasing power. Markets feel stretched. Banks and central planners keep changing the rules. And somewhere in the middle of all that noise, you're told to “buy gold” or “stack silver” without a clear answer as to why.

So which is it?

Is gold still the ultimate safe haven, or is it already too crowded?
Does silver offer more upside, or just more volatility?
And where do platinum and palladium actually fit in for serious investors? Do they fit in at all?

For most investors, gold is the best all-around precious metal due to its stability and monetary role, while silver offers higher upside potential.

However, each metal behaves differently depending on economic conditions, monetary policy, and investor sentiment. What works in a high-inflation environment may fall short in a recession. What protects wealth may not grow it.

That's exactly why so many investors get this wrong.

In this guide, we'll break down gold, silver, and other precious metals in plain terms. By the end, you will learn what drives their prices, how they perform in different scenarios, and which one makes the most sense for your specific goals.

Not theory. Not hype. Just a clear, practical framework for deciding where to put your money.

What Is the Best Precious Metal to Invest In?

Deciding on the best precious metal to invest in is not a universal answer. The best precious metals investment depends on your financial goals:

Gold = stability and wealth preservation
Silver = upside and volatility
Platinum/Palladium = industrial/speculative

You can see the differences a little more clearly in this table:

Metal	Best For	Risk Level	Key Advantage
Gold	Wealth preservation	Low	Monetary history
Silver	Growth potential	Medium	Industrial demand
Platinum	Speculation	High	Supply constraints

Why Precious Metals Matter Right Now (2026 Outlook)

The case for precious metals is not just theoretical: it is rooted in current economic conditions. Global debt levels continue to rise. Inflation has proven far more persistent than many policymakers expected, and the purchasing power of the dollar continues to decline.

Several important actors have taken notice of this, not least of them being central banks. Many central banks are accumulating more gold to diversify from the dollar and reduce their dependence on fiat currency. In fact, in recent years, some have broken established trends and begun buying silver.

All of this matters for private investors. While the dollar's purchasing power may fluctuate in the short-term, the long-term trend has not changed: it continues to fall.

Sovereign nations turning to precious metals suggests just how powerful these assets are in preserving value. In this environment, gold and silver are not just legacy assets. They are increasingly relevant tools for preserving wealth and maintaining financial resilience.

Is Gold the Best Precious Metal to Invest In?

Gold is unique for its durability, as it does not rust or corrode. It also has excellent malleability and conductivity. Gold has some industrial applications, but it remains a monetary metal, used either as a hedge that protects currency against inflation. It is also a base metal for jewelry products.

Gold is often the first commodity that comes to mind when people think of precious metals investing. The reason for that is simple. Gold has held its purchasing power when confidence in currencies declines.

During major crises, whether it's the 2008 financial meltdown or the inflation surge of the 1970s, gold has consistently acted as a financial anchor. It does not rely on earnings, dividends, or economic growth. Rather, gold reflects the degree of trust people have in the current economic system.

One of the most important drivers of gold demand today is central bank buying. In recent years, central banks around the world have been accumulating gold at the fastest pace in decades. In particular, many of the BRICS nations, including China, Russia, India, Brazil, and South Africa have been leading the gold accumulation move.

Why is that? These nations seek to move away from reliance on fiat currencies, and especially the U.S. dollar. The demand for gold by these nations provides a strong long-term floor for prices.

This fact has greater significance for private investors. It suggests that these countries do not trust fiat currency. If several sovereign nations are wary of fiat currency, and the U.S. dollar in particular, private investors should consider investing in a hedge against dollar devaluation.

On the supply side, gold production grows slowly. New discoveries are rare, and mining costs continue to rise. The restricted supply and consistent demand give gold a consistent long-term value floor.

Pros: Stability, global liquidity, monetary history, crisis performance
Cons: Limited upside compared to other metals, no income generation

So, what type of investor should buy gold? Generally, investors who buy gold focus on wealth preservation, risk reduction, and long-term stability. These factors are why gold remains the best precious metal to invest in for long-term preservation against devaluation.

Is Silver The Best Precious Metal To Invest In?

Silver occupies a unique position in the precious metals market. It is a hybrid, functioning both as a monetary metal and an industrial commodity. That unusual combination creates a sharper volatility in the silver market. That volatility can lead to heightened risk … and outsized gains.

Historically, silver has followed gold during monetary crises, but with greater intensity. In fact, silver often outperforms gold during inflationary environments or strong bull markets.

What about when the economy slows down? In these cases, silver carries value because of its use as an industrial metal. Roughly half of silver demand comes from industries like electronics, solar energy, and manufacturing.

When these sectors weaken, they can cause the https://www.moneymetals.com/silver-price";>silver price to lag. The industrial link is also where silver's long-term opportunity lies. Demand tied to green energy, particularly from the solar panel market, has steadily increased over the years. That creates a structural demand base that did not exist in past decades.

Similarly, something else has changed in the silver market that many analysts never expected: central banks and sovereign entities have increasingly shown interest in silver alongside gold. The nation leading the charge has been Russia, followed by India and Saudi Arabia.

This buying trend began in 2025 as a way to help these nations diversify away from the U.S. dollar. While the geopolitical reasons for this are complex, it has a significant impact on the silver market. It adds more demand to the silver market and helps reduce the supply. That gives it more of a price floor.

What does all of this mean? It demonstrates that silver is growing in industrial and monetary importance. That increases its value, and it has driven silver to all-time highs in late 2025 and early 2026.

On the supply side, most silver is produced as a byproduct of mining other metals, such as copper and zinc. That means supply does not always respond quickly to silver prices and demand. Miners are not going to shift their corporate functions to focus on silver just because of temporary demand spikes. As a result, this can amplify price moves when demand surges.

Pros: Higher upside potential, affordability, growing industrial demand
Cons: Volatility, sensitivity to economic cycles

Silver is ideal for investors seeking growth potential and leverage to precious metals trends. It often rewards patience, especially during the later stages of bull markets. It is an exciting investment opportunity that is quickly evolving.

Are Platinum and Palladium the Best Precious Metals to Invest In?

Platinum and palladium are fundamentally different from gold and silver. While they are classified as precious metals, their price movements are driven primarily by industrial demand, not monetary demand.

Both metals play a critical role in the automotive industry, particularly in catalytic converters used to reduce emissions. So, similar to silver, there is a tight link between their prices and the performance of their industries, particularly vehicle production, environmental regulations, and shifts in technology.

For example, palladium has seen explosive price increases in the past due to supply shortages and strong demand from gasoline engines.

Platinum, despite being rarer than gold, has often lagged in price performance. One key reason is demand disruption. Diesel engines, which historically relied heavily on platinum, have fallen out of favor in many markets. At the same time, platinum lacks the same level of monetary demand and central bank support that gold enjoys.

Supply for both metals is highly concentrated geographically, especially in South Africa and Russia. Geopolitical tensions can disrupt this metal's circulation, which increases its price.

Pros: Supply constraints, potential for sharp price moves, industrial necessity
Cons: Demand uncertainty, high volatility, less liquidity

Platinum and palladium are best suited for experienced investors or speculators who understand the cyclical industries and can tolerate significant price swings. They are not the core assets of a precious metal portfolio, but they are a useful way to gain profits in a more diversified portfolio.

Gold vs Silver vs Platinum: Which Performs Best?

Factor	Gold	Silver	Platinum
Volatility	Low	High	High
Liquidity	Very High	High	Moderate
Industrial Demand	Low	High	Very High

Which Metal Is Best for Your Situation?

Deciding on the best precious metal for your investment strategy ultimately depends on your financial goals. What do you hope to achieve from your investment?

If your goal is to hedge against inflation, gold is your best bet. Gold has a stellar history of retaining value during times of economic instability. In particular, gold bars are often the best bullion form to build a large store of value. However, a gold coin stack might have more liquidity on the precious metals market.

If you're hoping to turn a profit from your precious metals investment, silver is the best choice. Silver has the most volatile market, making it the best for making profits in a short period of time. If you're hoping to trade silver with a quick turnaround, silver coins are often the best bullion form. They provide higher liquidity rates than many bars.

Platinum and palladium are better for investors who want to practice speculation. Their prices are heavily influenced by industrial demand cycles and supply disruptions, rather than steady monetary demand. This creates an opportunity for sharp price swings: especially when supply constraints emerge in key producing regions like South Africa or when shifts in automotive demand tighten availability.

However, those same factors also make this market unpredictable. It can underperform for lengthy periods before moving higher. Investors usually turn to platinum for asymmetric upside potential, not stability, and should be prepared for volatility along the way.

For beginners who are just looking to diversify their portfolios, a combination of gold and silver offers the most balanced and practical entry into precious metals investing. Gold provides stability and acts as a financial anchor during economic uncertainty. Silver adds growth potential and exposure to rising industrial demand trends.

The mix offers protection from overexposure to volatility in your investments. However, it still provides access to upside moves during bull markets. Investing in gold and silver together offers investors a great starting point for building up a precious metals portfolio.

How to Build a Precious Metals Portfolio

Building a precious metals portfolio starts with your allocation. How much of your portfolio do you want to designate for precious metals? Once you decide that, the next step is deciding how to split up your precious metals allocation.

Investors generally recommend a gold-to-silver ratio of 75:25 for investors. However, you may decide to split your portfolio differently to accommodate your financial goals. An investor focusing more on profit may buy much more silver than gold. Those interested in speculation and growth may divide their portfolio between silver and platinum rather than gold.

Similarly, an investor focused on preserving wealth may focus almost exclusively on gold. However, there are other considerations to take into account.

One of those is your risk tolerance. Each precious metal and its market has a differing risk level. Investors should also consider what risks they are willing to take with their portfolio.

The final consideration is whether you should invest in https://www.moneymetals.com/investment/silver-etf-vs-physical-silver";>physical metals or ETFs. Each of these have their own distinct advantages, which you can see in the table below.

Factor	Physical Precious Metals (Gold, Silver, etc.)	Precious Metals ETFs
Ownership	Direct ownership of the metal in your possession or storage	Paper claim representing shares tied to metal prices
Counterparty Risk	None - no reliance on financial institutions	Present - depends on fund managers, custodians, and financial system
Liquidity	High, but requires selling through dealers or private buyers	Very high - traded instantly on stock exchanges
Storage	Requires secure storage (home safe or vault)	No storage required
Premiums & Fees	Upfront premiums over spot price, no ongoing fees	Low trading spreads, but ongoing management fees
Privacy	Can be purchased and held privately	Fully tracked through brokerage accounts
Crisis Protection	Strong - tangible asset outside the financial system	Limited - depends on market functioning and access to exchanges
Ease of Buying	Moderate - requires selecting products and dealers	Easy - buy/sell like a stock
Best Use Case	Long-term wealth preservation and financial insurance	Short-term trading and portfolio exposure

Physical precious metals and ETFs can both provide exposure to gold and silver, but they serve different purposes. If your goal is true wealth insurance, direct ownership of physical bullion offers the strongest protection because it removes counterparty risk and gives you an asset outside the financial system.

ETFs are more convenient and liquid, which makes them useful for trading or short-term portfolio exposure, but they do not provide the same level of control, privacy, or crisis protection. For investors focused on long-term security, physical metals usually make more sense. For investors prioritizing speed and convenience, ETFs may be the better fit.

Risks and Downsides of Investing in Precious Metals

Precious metals offer several advantages, but they do have drawbacks. The biggest limitation of these assets they do not generate income.

Stocks famously pay dividends, and bonds produce yields. They give investors a chance to grow their wealth. In contrast, bullion does not generate income. Their role is primarily to hold their value against inflation, though you can sometimes sell bullion in speculative trading for profits.

Price volatility is another factor investors need to understand. Although gold is generally more stable than other metals, it can still experience short-term volatility. Silver, platinum, and palladium are even more volatile due to their smaller market sizes and dependence on industrial demand. While that volatility can allow you to earn a profit, they can also create short-term risks and losses.

This means investors may need to tolerate periods of underperformance before long-term trends play out. Sometimes, that process can take years.

Precious metals also require security and safe storage. Unfortunately, home safes and third-party storage vaults come with additional costs and insurance fees. However, improper storage increases the risk of theft or loss. That concern does not exist with digital or paper-based assets.

Finally, liquidity can vary depending on the form of metal owned. Selling physical bullion typically involves trading through a precious metals exchange. It may involve significant spreads between the metal's buy and sell prices.

What does all of this mean for private investors? The short version is that precious metals are a supplement to your portfolio. They are not a self-sufficient investment. They work best as preservatives, not as generative assets.

Frequently Asked Questions About the Best Precious Metal to Invest In

Is gold better than silver in a recession?

Yes, gold generally performs better during recessions because it acts as a monetary safe haven and grants security against devaluation. Silver is more volatile since its industrial demand often declines during economic slowdowns, though it may rebound more strongly afterward.

What metal grows the fastest?

Silver typically grows the fastest during precious metals bull markets because its smaller market size allows prices to move more aggressively. Gold tends to rise more steadily, while platinum and palladium can spike unpredictably based on industrial demand.

Are precious metals a good investment in 2026?

Precious metals remain a strong option in 2026 for diversification and protection against inflation, debt risks, and economic uncertainty. However, they are best used as long-term wealth preservation assets rather than short-term growth investments.

Choosing the Best Precious Metal To Invest In

In the end, there is no single best precious metal to invest in for every investor. The right choice depends on your goals, your risk tolerance, and how you see the economic landscape unfolding. Gold remains the foundation for a reason. It offers stability, liquidity, and long-term protection when confidence in currencies and the financial system weakens.

In contrast, silver offers upside potential. It gives investors a way to benefit from silver, both from its monetary demand and growing industrial use. For most people, the best approach is to mix silver and gold in a ratio that fits your financial goals.

So, what's the next step? If you're serious about protecting and growing your wealth, start accumulating physical metals. Ensure you diversify well and continue educating yourself on how the markets move. Over time, discipline can make all the difference in your portfolio.

Fiat Money and the Decline of Civilization

Thu, 23 Apr 2026 00:00:00 EST

In a fiat system, your money is constantly being devalued. That means you are losing purchasing power month after month.

From the government’s standpoint, this isn’t a bug. It’s a feature. Fiat money printing enables governments to spend far beyond what they could if they had to run on tax receipts alone. I have often said the Federal Reserve is the engine that drives big government.

However, this isn’t the only pernicious impact of a fiat system.

Economist Saifedean Ammous argues that the incentives inherent in a fiat system drive significant societal shifts that are overwhelmingly negative.

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Fundamentally, a fiat system empowers governments and leads to higher time preferences. This eventually spills over with multiple negative effects, undermining the entire society.

“Time preference” is a fancy economic term describing how much a person values present versus future consumption. People with low time preferences are as concerned about the future as the present. They are willing to put off gratification. They tend to save instead of borrowing and spending.

On the flip side, a person with a high time preference lives in the here and now. A high time preference attitude is more along the lines of “eat and drink for tomorrow we die.” Or to put it another way, “Eat and drink, for tomorrow our dollar will be worthless.”

Ammous argues that the constant devaluation of fiat currency leads to high time preferences. Why save when your dollar will buy less tomorrow? While it might not be readily apparent, this high time preference mindset spills over into many areas of society.

And when you couple high time preferences with the government's ability to intervene in every aspect of life (because it can print money to spend), you have a recipe for societal decline.

https://share.google/dleo7k3Pne5yLceqA"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">Economic historian Tom Woods highlighted some of the impacts of high time preference living coupled with big government in a recent article.

Family – Having children is the ultimate low-time preference act. A devaluing currency squeezes young adults and makes parenting and investing in a family less attractive. This drives a drop in birth rates and weakens families as “people prioritize immediate gratification over multi-generational legacy-building.”

Architecture – In a low time preference world, people build beautiful structures designed to last centuries. High time preference architecture produces, as Woods described it, “hideous, disposable, repair-prone monstrosities as developers and societies no longer value long-term legacy over quick yields.”

Food – A student of Ammous wrote a book titled Fiat Food. As Woods summarized it, “Government-subsidized debt and distorted incentives degrade soil, favor industrial junk over real nourishment, and promote poor dietary guidelines that serve political or corporate interests rather than human health.” From a practical standpoint, nutritious foods are gradually replaced by cheap, processed foods that are detrimental to long-term human health.

Science – In a high time preference world, long-term research is gradually replaced by sloppy research on shortened timelines. The difficulty in obtaining funding when the public is constantly strapped due to inflation leads to more and more government influence in science. Woods sums up the inevitable outcome. “Government grants and fiat-funded academia reward alarmism, predictions of catastrophe, and calls for state intervention rather than falsifiable, market-tested truths.”

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Health – When you combine bad science with bad food, you end up with deteriorating health. “Tied to fiat food and distorted science, public health advice and outcomes worsen. Chronic disease rises alongside the promotion of low-quality diets and medical interventions that benefit from endless monetary expansion.”

Education – Learning is another low-time-preference activity. It takes time and resources to get a good education. If you're constantly fighting inflation, resources become scarce. A fiat money system coupled with government monopolization of education is a recipe for dumb and debt. As Woods explained, “Centralized funding and credential inflation have turned universities into debt factories churning out politicized and worthless degrees. Real skills and market feedback are replaced by government-aligned research and accreditation games.”

War – As already mentioned, fiat systems allow governments to spend far more than they otherwise could. That means they can fund endless wars and foreign adventurism while avoiding significant taxpayer backlash.

Distorting Markets – Fiat systems distort markets by incentivizing and enabling government intervention. Consider energy. Fiat systems have allowed governments to pick winners and losers by subsidizing certain “green energy” sectors to the exclusion of others. In effect, the government picks and chooses winners based on political considerations instead of allowing markets to function. We have no idea how many breakthroughs never happened because the government, in its infinite wisdom, was incentivizing something else. As Woods summarized it, “Fiat money enables massive subsidies, misallocation, and politicized ‘renewable’ pushes while understating fiat's own role in soil degradation and resource waste.”

Money https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/SoundMoneyReview-2026.pdf";>isn’t just about economics. As we’ve seen, money has a huge impact on how society functions. This is why we need sound money. I couldn’t have summed it up better than Woods did.

“This is why, to my mind, gold is more than a past and future medium of exchange -- it is a symbol of civilization itself.”

Uganda Launches Domestic Gold-Buying Program to Boost Reserves

Thu, 23 Apr 2026 00:00:00 EST

Earlier this week, Ugandan officials announced the country’s central bank has begun to buy gold from domestic producers to bolster its reserves.

Uganda is one of several African central banks, including Kenya, Nigeria, and the Congo, that are buying domestic gold to expand national holdings and diversify their reserves.

The Bank of Uganda announced the program nearly two years ago. According to a statement from the central bank, it made its first domestic gold purchase last Friday (April 17) and will continue buying gold under a 3-year pilot program.

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Uganda’s mining sector is relatively small, ranking 20th in Africa, with gold production dominated by small wildcat operations. However, Uganda has emerged as a major gold exporter as it processes and refines gold mined elsewhere. In 2025, the country exported $5.8 billion in gold, a 76 percent increase year-on-year.

When announcing the domestic gold-buying program, a Bank of Uganda statement said that buying gold from small-scale local producers would also “be supporting the livelihoods of artisanal and small-scale miners, and this has positive spill-over effects on other sectors of the economy.”

Bank officials did not reveal how much gold it bought or how much it paid.

According to the Bank of Uganda (BoU) statement, the gold-buying program is intended to “build and diversify Uganda's foreign exchange reserves portfolio by purchasing and processing domestically mined gold and including it in the foreign exchange reserves.”

Uganda has struggled to maintain its foreign exchange reserves due to rising external debt payments and difficulties buying foreign currency, such as dollars, due to its own currency’s devaluation.

BoU officials also indicated the domestic gold-buying program "will strengthen reserve adequacy and reduce risks associated with conventional reserve instruments."

By conventional reserve instruments, the bank means dollars and dollar-denominated assets.

In fact, a large number of central banks are growing their gold reserves to diversify away from the greenback. Wall Street has even come up with a fancy term for this de-dollarization trend – the debasement trade.

In a nutshell, as the dollar (along with other fiat currencies) depreciates, central banks and other institutions are dumping them for a “more neutral” safe haven.

That neutral safe haven is gold. It is money without https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/02/29/buy-gold-and-silver-to-hedge-against-counterparty-risk-003015";>counterparty risk.

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There are two overriding concerns surrounding the dollar.

First, there is the U.S. government fiscal malfeasance. https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/04/14/us-government-spending-addiction-drives-yet-another-big-monthly-deficit-004836";>Uncle Sam spends hand over fist, adding trillions to its pile of debt every year, and there doesn’t seem to be much interest in slowing down the spending train.

Second, dollar worries were exacerbated after the U.S. and its Western allies effectively locked Russia out of the dollar-driven global financial system and froze billions in Russian assets. This https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/02/29/could-weaponization-of-the-dollar-as-a-foreign-policy-billy-club-accelerate-de-dollarization-003013";>weaponization of the dollar has made many countries wary of holding the greenback.

According to https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/2023-central-bank-gold-reserves-survey"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">a https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/2023-central-bank-gold-reserves-survey"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">2023 World Gold Council survey, a “substantial share” of central banks expressed concern about potential sanctions after the U.S. and other Western countries froze almost half of Russia’s $650 billion in gold and forex reserves.

Aware of these risks, many countries in Africa, and elsewhere, are looking for ways to diversify their reserves and minimize dependence on the U.S. Dollar. Gold is the perfect solution as it carries no counterparty risk and is recognized as money worldwide.

Silver Prices Rose Even as Demand Slipped

Thu, 23 Apr 2026 00:00:00 EST

In a recent episode of the Money Metals Midweek Memo, host Mike Maharrey explored a surprising disconnect in the silver market. Normally, declining demand would point to weaker prices. Instead, silver surged dramatically through late 2025 and into early 2026.

Maharrey explained that headline demand figures only tell part of the story. The deeper driver behind the rally was a tightening physical market that had been developing for years. By the time prices finally moved, the imbalance between supply and demand had already reached a breaking point.

He framed the situation simply. Markets do not always respond immediately to changing fundamentals. In silver’s case, years of strain built beneath the surface before erupting into a sharp price move.

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The 2025 Silver Market in Numbers

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According to final data from Metals Focus and the Silver Institute, total silver demand in 2025 came in at https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/04/20/silver-price-surged-last-year-despite-modest-drop-in-demand-004851";>1.13 billion ounces. That represented an overall decline of about 2% compared to the previous year.

Industrial demand fell by 3%, with electronics usage down 2%. Maharrey noted that growth in artificial intelligence infrastructure, automotive applications, and power grid investment helped support demand. However, weakness in the solar sector weighed heavily as rising silver prices pushed manufacturers toward substitution and reduced usage.

Jewelry demand also softened. Global silver jewelry demand dropped 8%, driven largely by a 20% decline in India, one of the world’s largest markets. China stood out as a notable exception, posting a 5% increase as consumers substituted silver for increasingly expensive gold.

Silverware demand fell even more sharply, declining 24% to a four-year low. Despite these declines, investment demand provided a key offset. Silver coin and bar demand rose 14% in 2025, helping stabilize overall consumption.

Global Investment Demand Diverged

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Maharrey highlighted a striking geographic divide in investment demand. The United States was the only major region that failed to see an increase in silver investment.

India led the world with a 33% rise in investment demand. Europe recorded its first increase in three years, while the Middle East and China saw strong gains driven by rising investor interest and relatively low starting points.

In contrast, US demand declined for a third consecutive year. Maharrey attributed this to reduced safe haven buying following President Donald Trump’s election, along with profit-taking during the early stages of the rally.

He connected this trend to broader patterns in precious metals markets. Asian investors have played a dominant role in driving demand, while Western investors have often been slower to respond until prices are already moving higher.

Supply Gains Were Not Enough

On the supply side, silver mine production rose 3% in 2025 to 846.6 million ounces. Recycling increased by 2% and reached its highest level in 12 years.

Even with these gains, total supply reached only 1.09 billion ounces. That left the market in deficit once again.

The 2025 shortfall totaled 40.2 million ounces, or 1,252 tons. This marked the fifth consecutive year in which global demand exceeded supply.

Maharrey emphasized that this persistent deficit is the https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/03/09/silver-demand-expected-to-outstrip-supply-and-other-silver-news-004749";>key to understanding the price rally. Even as demand softened slightly and supply improved modestly, the market still could not produce enough silver to meet total needs.

A Multi-Year Deficit Finally Hit

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The host stressed that the 2025 rally was not the result of a single year’s imbalance. It reflected the cumulative effect of years of deficits, finally catching up with the market.

Over the past five years, the silver market has accumulated a deficit of 716 million ounces. That figure is nearly equal to an entire year of global mine production.

Earlier in the decade, from 2010 to 2020, above-ground silver stocks increased by 243 million ounces. When recent deficits are factored in, Maharrey said the market has experienced a net stock decline of roughly 473 million ounces over the past 15 years.

This erosion of available inventory fundamentally changed market conditions. The cushion that once absorbed supply disruptions had largely disappeared, leaving the market far more sensitive to shifts in demand and logistics.

Silver’s Repricing Was Inevitable

Maharrey argued that silver had been undervalued for years, particularly when compared to gold. He pointed to the historically wide gold-to-silver ratio as evidence.

In modern markets, the ratio typically ranges between 40:1 and 60:1. Through most of 2025, it remained elevated near 91:1 and peaked at 107:1 in April.

By the end of the year, the ratio had fallen sharply to 61:1 and briefly dropped into the sub-50s in early 2026. This shift reflected silver catching up to gold after a prolonged period of underpricing.

He described the price surge as a straightforward supply and demand response. Holders of physical silver were unwilling to sell at lower prices, forcing buyers to bid higher until sufficient metal entered the market.

A Rapid and Powerful Rally

The speed of silver’s move was one of the most striking aspects of the market. Silver began 2025 at about $28.84 per ounce and remained below $40 until September.

By the end of the year, https://www.moneymetals.com/silver-price";>the price had climbed to $71.30. At its peak, silver posted a 147% intrayear gain.

The average price for 2025 was approximately $40, representing a 42% increase over the prior year’s average. While gold dominated headlines for much of the year, silver ultimately outperformed during the final months.

The https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/04/16/how-a-silver-shortage-sparked-a-historic-price-rally-004839";>rally continued into early 2026, briefly pushing silver above $100 per ounce before a correction brought it back into the $70 to $80 range.

The Silver Squeeze Explained

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Maharrey identified October 2025 as the turning point when a full-scale silver squeeze took hold. Tight inventories collided with logistical disruptions and surging physical demand.

He traced the origins back to the spring of 2025, when tariff concerns triggered a large movement of silver from London to CME vaults in New York. Holdings in CME vaults climbed to 531 million ounces, surpassing pandemic-era records.

This shift https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/04/16/cftc-chairman-to-examine-national-security-risks-from-geographical-concentration-of-depositories-for-precious-metals-004843";>created a mismatch in the global supply chain. Much of the remaining silver in London was already committed to exchange-traded products, leaving only 17% of inventory unallocated by late September.

At the same time, https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/04/07/india-allowing-gold-futures-to-back-etfs-004820";>Indian demand surged as buyers turned to silver amid rising gold prices. Premiums in India, typically just a few cents above global levels, climbed as high as $5 per ounce.

This premium spike pulled additional silver into India, intensifying shortages in other regions. The result was a classic squeeze, with limited supply struggling to meet rapidly shifting demand.

Market Stress Became Visible

The strain in the market became evident through silver lease rates, which surged above 200% during the squeeze.

Although lease rates have since declined, they remain elevated by historical standards. Maharrey said this indicates that while short-term pressures have eased, the underlying tightness persists.

Some metal has flowed back into London vaults, helping rebalance supply. However, the fundamental issue remains unchanged. The market still lacks sufficient physical silver to comfortably meet demand.

According to Metals Focus, the market has entered an era of reduced inventories, thinner liquidity, and greater price volatility. This new environment is likely to produce larger and more frequent price swings.

Another Deficit Expected in 2026

Looking ahead, current forecasts point to a sixth consecutive supply deficit in 2026. The projected shortfall is 46.3 million ounces.

Maharrey noted that uncertainty remains high due to geopolitical factors, particularly the https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/04/04/war-headlines-shook-prices-but-the-bigger-silver-story-is-still-intact-004813";>ongoing situation involving Iran. These developments could influence both industrial demand and investment behavior.

Even so, the baseline expectation is for continued structural tightness. Declines in industrial and jewelry demand may occur, but rising investment demand is expected to offset much of the weakness.

He added that higher prices could begin attracting more interest from North American investors, who have largely been absent from recent demand growth.

Investment Implications

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Maharrey pointed to https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/silver/junk-silver";>junk silver as one accessible way for investors to gain exposure. These are pre-1965 US dimes, quarters, and half dollars that contain 90% silver.

He noted that melt values for older quarters have reached around $14, highlighting the erosion of purchasing power in modern currency. He described junk silver as a practical entry point for physical investment.

With prices currently below recent highs and supply constraints still in place, he characterized the market as offering continued upside potential.

Gold and the Debasement Trade

The episode also touched on gold, with Maharrey highlighting a bullish outlook from Wells Fargo. Analysts there project a https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/04/20/wells-fargo-debasement-trade-could-drive-gold-to-8000-004850";>potential price of $8,000 per ounce by 2027.

The driving force behind this forecast is what analysts call the debasement trade. Maharrey described this as the ongoing erosion of fiat currencies and a shift toward gold as a neutral reserve asset.

Wells Fargo estimates gold’s fair value at around $4,500 per ounce, with a base case of $6,000 to $6,300 in 2026. Their bearish scenario still places gold near $4,000, while most scenarios point to continued upside.

He linked this trend to strong central bank buying, rising global debt, and concerns about the US dollar’s role in the financial system. Gold has already surpassed the euro as the second-largest reserve asset and now accounts for a larger share of reserves than US Treasuries.

The Bottom Line

Maharrey concluded that the silver rally was not driven by rising demand alone, but by a prolonged supply imbalance that finally reached a tipping point.

Five consecutive years of deficits, a cumulative shortfall of 716 million ounces, and declining above-ground stocks created a market primed for a sharp repricing. When additional stress hit in 2025, the result was a rapid and powerful surge.

He argued that the same structural forces remain in place. With ongoing deficits and tightening inventories, https://www.moneymetals.com/programs/monthly-program";>silver and gold both stand to benefit in a world defined by supply constraints and currency debasement.

How Many Quarters in a Roll? Full Breakdown & Value Guide - Money Metals

Wed, 22 Apr 2026 00:00:00 EST

Most people don’t think twice about loose change until they need to count it quickly. If you’ve ever wondered how many quarters are in a roll, the answer is simple, but there’s more to know than just the number.

Coin rolls are standardized for a reason. Understanding how they work can save time, whether you’re depositing cash, collecting coins, or stacking silver. In this guide, we’ll break down the exact number of quarters per roll, their total value, and how coin rolls fit into the broader system used by banks and investors alike.

Quick Answer

How Many Quarters are in a Roll?

A standard roll of quarters contains 40 quarters and is worth $10.

This standard is set by the U.S. banking system: the goal is to make tasks related to quarters easier, including counting, transporting, and storing coins. Banks do not want to deal with loose change, preferring instead to rely on pre-measured rolls that represent fixed dollar values.

How Much Is a Roll of Quarters Worth?

A standard roll of quarters is worth $10.00 in face value. Since each quarter equals $0.25, the math is straightforward:

Coin	Coins Per Roll	Total Value
Quarter ($0.25)	40	10

The benefit of this standardized value is that it makes coin rolls easy to use for several purposes. These include:

Bank deposits
Cash drawers and retail businesses
Quick counting and inventory

For investors and collectors, the face value is just the starting point. In many cases, especially for coins that predate 1965, a quarter’s metal content or rarity can make a roll significantly more valuable than $10.

Why Rolls Contain 40 Quarters

Coin rolls aren’t random. The U.S. banking system standardized the roll values of each U.S. coin to balance convenience, weight, and efficiency.

Forty quarters per roll works well because:

It creates an even $10 denomination, making accounting simple
The physical size is manageable for handling and transport
It aligns with automated coin-counting and wrapping machines

Banks, armored carriers, and the Federal Reserve rely on these uniform standards to move large amounts of coinage quickly and accurately. Without that consistency, everyday cash operations would be slower and far more error-prone.

Coin Roll Chart (All U.S. Coins)

Understanding how quarters compare to other denominations can help you quickly calculate totals across mixed coins.

Coin Type	Value Per Coin	Coins Per Roll	Total Value Per Roll
Penny	0	50	$0.50
Nickel	0	40	$2.00
Dime	0	50	$5.00
Quarter	0	40	$10.00
Half Dollar	1	20	$10.00
Dollar Coin	1	25	$25.00

This standardized system allows anyone, from bank tellers to coin collectors, to quickly estimate totals without counting each individual coin.

Silver Quarters vs Modern Quarters

We mentioned before that quarters from before 1965 are worth more than contemporary quarters. Why is that?

The face value of pre-1965 is the same as that of modern quarters. However, pre-1965 coins have more inherent worth because they were made from 90% silver.

A single pre-1965 quarter contains 0.18084 troy ounces of silver, meaning that these coins give exposure to the silver spot price. Roughly six pre-1965 quarters would equate to one troy ounce of silver, making them worth the current spot price.

In 1965, the United States stopped minting silver coins for currency circulation. However, to this day, it is still possible to find silver quarters in a roll of quarters. For this reason, silver investors will often buy rolls of quarters from the bank to search for these silver coins.

How Banks and Collectors Use Coin Rolls

Bank Uses for Coin Rolls

Banks often sell coin rolls to customers to fill certain operational needs. Some examples of those include cash coinage for laundromats and vending machines. They also accept these rolls for deposits.

Banks often encourage customers to wrap coins themselves for deposits, offering empty paper coin wrappers to help them do the job. These rolls allow bank customers to deposit coins in the bank.

How Collectors Use Coin Rolls

Collectors often purchase a bundle of quarters from the bank to sort for silver quarters. It’s an affordable way to begin building a silver stack, or else to find more coins to add to your collection.

Collectors do not always focus on quarters for their silver content though. Some quarters come with rare mint marks that can make them valuable in the numismatic market. One example is a quarter with the rare “W” mint mark, which ran from 2019-2020. These coins were minted at West Point and can be worth significantly more than their face value.

Similarly, collectors may also buy quarter rolls to hunt for error coins. These coins contain mint mark errors, such as double dies, repunched mint marks, or blank planchets.

How Many Quarters In a Roll: Frequently Asked Questions

How many quarters are in a standard roll?

There are 40 quarters in a standard US coin roll. This gives the roll a total face value of $10.

How much is a roll of quarters worth?

A full roll of quarters is worth $10 at face value. However, older or rare quarters could make a roll worth more to collectors or investors.

Are all coin rolls the same size?

No, coin rolls vary by denomination based on coin size and value. Pennies and dimes come in rolls of 50, while quarters and nickels both come in rolls of 40.

Can a roll of quarters be worth more than $10?

Yes, especially if the roll contains pre-1965 silver quarters or rare collectible coins. In those cases, the metal content or numismatic value can exceed face value significantly.

Why do banks use coin rolls instead of loose coins?

Coin rolls make counting, storing, and transporting coins faster and more accurate. They also allow businesses and banks to handle large amounts of change efficiently without recounting every coin.

Final Thoughts

The answer to how many quarters in a roll is simple: 40 quarters, totaling $10. But as you’ve seen, there’s more behind that number than meets the eye.

Standardized coin rolls make everyday tasks like counting cash, making deposits, and managing money far more efficient. At the same time, they open the door to something bigger. Whether you’re searching for pre-1965 silver quarters, hunting rare mint marks, or just organizing spare change, a simple roll of quarters can carry more value than its face suggests.

In the end, understanding coin rolls isn’t just about counting coins. It’s about recognizing opportunities, whether in everyday banking or long-term collecting.