Precious Metals News & Analysis - Gold News, Silver News from Money Metals Exchange

Brien Lundin on the Future of Precious Metals

Sat, 14 Mar 2026 00:00:00 EST

In a recent episode of the Money Metals podcast, host Mike Maharrey sat down with https://www.moneymetals.com/authors/brien-lundin";>Brien Lundin, president and CEO of Jefferson Financial, editor of The Gold Newsletter, and host of the long-running New Orleans Investment Conference. Their conversation explored the forces currently shaping the gold and silver markets, including geopolitical tensions, government debt, inflation, central bank buying, and shifting investor sentiment.

While headlines surrounding global conflict have dominated the news cycle, Lundin argues that the most important drivers of precious metals prices remain rooted in long-term monetary trends rather than short-term geopolitical events.

(Interview Starts Around 6:54 Mark)

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War Headlines vs. the Real Drivers of Gold

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At the time of the discussion, markets were reacting to https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/03/09/iran-war-creates-disruptions-in-gold-market-004748";>escalating tensions involving Iran, which briefly pushed gold prices higher. According to Maharrey, gold surged to roughly $5,400 per ounce when the conflict began before pulling back toward $5,200 as markets absorbed the news.

Lundin emphasized that geopolitical shocks typically create only temporary moves in gold prices. Traders often rush into gold during the early days of a crisis, only to exit just as quickly once the initial excitement fades.

In his view, wars may trigger short-term speculation, but they rarely determine the https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/03/10/could-the-iran-war-give-a-long-term-boost-to-gold-bulls-004751";>long-term trajectory of precious metals.

Instead, Lundin says the primary reason to own gold remains simple and consistent across history: protection against the loss of purchasing power in fiat currencies.

He argues that the current environment—marked by rising government debt, persistent deficit spending, and central bank intervention—represents the late stages of a long-running monetary cycle. According to Lundin, gold’s current rally reflects that structural reality more than any specific geopolitical event.

Long-Term Trends Still Favor Precious Metals

Despite headline volatility, Lundin believes the underlying bull market in gold remains intact.

He pointed out that the current gold bull market is now roughly two years old, and unlike previous cycles, it has experienced surprisingly few major corrections. Over that period, the market has seen only two drawdowns of roughly 10 percent, a relatively modest level of volatility for such a strong rally.

One major reason for this stability is persistent central bank demand. Governments around the world have been accumulating gold as a hedge against financial and geopolitical risks, particularly concerns surrounding the weaponization of the U.S. dollar in global politics.

Lundin also noted that the entry of Western investors into the market since late summer has introduced greater price volatility. When large institutional funds enter the sector, they tend to move in large waves—both when buying and when selling.

Even so, he expects the broader upward trend to continue.

Technically speaking, Lundin believes gold is currently trading sideways, consolidating gains before its next breakout. Based on recent price patterns and technical indicators such as Bollinger Bands, he suggested that the market could remain range-bound for two to three weeks before attempting another move higher.

Inflation, Debt, and the Real Monetary Problem

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Much of the discussion focused on the deeper monetary forces driving the gold market—particularly the explosion of government debt.

Lundin highlighted a striking statistic: interest payments on U.S. federal debt now exceed the nation’s defense spending. With government borrowing continuing to rise, he sees little chance of fiscal discipline emerging in the near future.

If deficits continue to expand, the government will ultimately need to fund them through monetary creation.

From an Austrian economics perspective, Lundin stressed that inflation is fundamentally an increase in the supply of money and credit—not simply rising consumer prices. Price inflation is merely a symptom of that deeper monetary process.

This distinction helps explain why gold often moves before visible inflation appears.

For example, during the massive stimulus programs that followed the COVID-19 pandemic, gold prices surged rapidly as markets anticipated future inflation. Consumer prices did not rise significantly until roughly 18 months later, but gold had already responded to the coming wave of liquidity.

In Lundin’s view, gold acts as one of the most sensitive forward indicators of monetary instability.

Measuring Wealth in Gold Instead of Dollars

During the conversation, Lundin referenced insights from https://share.google/ZtXF41P7LBCeSOWrZ"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">Robert Prechter, founder of Elliott Wave International, who highlighted an unusual market phenomenon.

According to Prechter’s analysis, major stock indexes reached both an all-time high and a 12-year low simultaneously in 2025, depending on how they are measured.

When priced in U.S. dollars, stock markets appear to be at record highs. But when priced in gold, they are far lower.

This contrast reflects the declining purchasing power of fiat currencies rather than genuine increases in wealth.

Lundin cited research showing that when prices are measured in gold, the S&P 500 currently trades at levels https://www.longtermtrends.com/stocks-vs-gold-comparison/"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">comparable to the 1930s and 1940s.

He also noted that the cost of an Ivy League education is roughly the same today as it was in the 1930s when priced in gold. Even everyday goods like a Big Mac have declined in gold terms since the 1980s.

These comparisons suggest that gold remains a relatively stable benchmark of value, while currencies fluctuate around it as governments expand the money supply.

Silver’s Unique Supply Dynamics

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While gold is primarily a monetary metal, silver occupies a hybrid role that includes both investment demand and industrial consumption.

This dual nature complicates silver’s outlook, particularly during periods of economic uncertainty.

Maharrey noted that a prolonged global conflict or recession could weaken industrial demand, potentially https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/03/09/silver-demand-expected-to-outstrip-supply-and-other-silver-news-004749";>creating headwinds for silver. However, Lundin believes the long-term fundamentals remain exceptionally strong.

For the first time in modern history, he argues that industrial users are competing directly with investors for limited silver supplies.

Historically, industries that used silver—such as photography—had little difficulty obtaining the metal because above-ground stockpiles were plentiful. Today, however, years of deficits have significantly reduced available inventories.

As a result, companies that require silver for manufacturing—especially in sectors like solar energy—must now compete with investors accumulating physical metal.

Because silver is essential for many industrial processes, manufacturers often have no choice but to pay whatever price is necessary to secure supply.

Lundin suggested that this structural shift could push silver prices significantly higher over time. Some industry reports indicate that prices in the range of $125 to $135 per ounce could begin affecting the economics of solar panel production.

The “Debasement Trade” and Institutional Money

One of the most powerful forces now entering the precious metals market is what Wall Street has begun calling the debasement trade.

After years of dismissing gold investors as fringe thinkers, institutional investors are increasingly acknowledging the risks associated with massive government debt and currency devaluation.

According to Lundin, global financial markets now contain roughly three times more investable capital than existed in 2008. Even a small shift in asset allocation toward precious metals could have a dramatic impact on prices.

Large funds do not need to allocate large percentages of their portfolios to move the market. A shift from 0 percent exposure to just 1 percent or 2 percent in gold and mining stocks can inject enormous capital into a relatively small sector.

This gradual rotation into precious metals, combined with continued central bank buying, could drive a powerful multi-year rally.

The New Orleans Investment Conference

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Toward the end of the interview, Lundin discussed https://neworleansconference.com/"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">the New Orleans Investment Conference, which he hosts each year. Founded by gold pioneer Jim Blanchard in 1974, the event is the oldest investment conference in the world and has long been a focal point for precious metals investors.

The conference brings together more than 40 leading experts in fields ranging from macroeconomics to mining, markets, and geopolitics.

The 2026 conference will take place October 28–31 in New Orleans, concluding on Halloween. Lundin emphasized that attendees not only gain access to leading analysts but also have the opportunity to interact directly with speakers and fellow investors.

The event has developed a reputation for presenting ideas and perspectives that often appear months or years ahead of the mainstream financial narrative.

The Bottom Line

Although geopolitical conflicts may create short-term volatility, the long-term outlook for precious metals remains anchored in deeper economic realities.

Rising government debt, persistent monetary expansion, growing central bank demand, and increasing institutional interest are all converging to support the sector.

As https://share.google/Y9tFznXWzc6S17PUB";>Brien F. Lundin noted during the discussion, the precious metals market may simply be entering a phase where the broader financial world is finally recognizing trends that gold investors have been watching for decades.

In his words, gold has moved from being dismissed as “tinfoil” thinking to becoming what many investors now see as “TINA” — there is no alternative.

Silver Price Breakout: What It Means for Investors and Where Silver Could Go Next - Money Metals

Fri, 13 Mar 2026 00:00:00 EST

Precious metals investors have witnessed one of the most dramatic silver price breakouts in modern market history.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/analysts-message-investors-silver-price-143700968.html";>According to Yahoo Finance, silver hit an all-time high of $121.64 per ounce on January 29, 2026. Within a day, that price collapsed … but the period since has seen a high-range, high-volatility consolidation. As of March 2026, silver has primarily traded between $80 and $90 per ounce.

The question is, what has caused this silver price breakout and subsequent consolidation? This question has fueled much speculation among investors, analysts, and precious metals advocates. More importantly, will silver continue trading high, or will the price range collapse again?

We contend that understanding the recent bullish market requires an understanding of what's driving the market. Right now, it seems that multiple technical, economic, and supply-side factors may be aligning.

What a “Silver Price Breakout” Actually Means

Before we get into this, let's clear up some key definitions needed to understand what a silver price breakout is:

Resistance level: a specific price ceiling where selling pressure exceeds buying demand, causing an upward price trend to halt or reverse.
Support level: a price floor where an asset's price stops falling due to concentrated buying demand.

A silver price breakout takes place when an asset's price moves above a resistance level or below a support level, typically accompanied by high volume.

Why does this matter? Typically, it means the end of a consolidation pattern.

Historically, https://www.moneymetals.com/investment/investing-in-silver";>silver often trades sideways. Put another way, it does not have sustained upward or downward trends for an extended period. At certain times, however, it can have an explosive move that changes the trading trend.

Sometimes, a false breakout can occur. A false breakout takes place when an asset's price moves above resistance or below support but fails to sustain momentum. Instead, it reverses back into its previous range. A true breakout, then, results in a significant shift in the consolidation of a commodity market.

Notice that by this last note, the recent silver price breakout does constitute an actual breakout. Even in November 2025, silver typically traded around $50-$55 per ounce.

Historical Silver Price Breakouts

Silver has had major breakouts before, typically during periods of:

Financial stress
Rising inflation
Weakening confidence in paper currencies

Here is a chart comparing the two major silver price breakouts in history:

Major Silver Price Breakouts: 1979–1980 vs. 2010–2011

Category	1979–1980 Breakout	2010–2011 Breakout
Economic Environment	High inflation, energy crisis, and weakening confidence in the U.S. dollar	Post–financial crisis recovery with aggressive monetary stimulus
Key Market Drivers	Inflation fears and large-scale silver accumulation by the Hunt brothers	Quantitative easing, low interest rates, and strong investor demand for precious metals
Investor Sentiment	Flight to hard assets amid monetary instability	Renewed interest in precious metals as protection against currency debasement
Role of Gold	Gold rallied first during inflationary pressures	Gold surged after the financial crisis, pulling silver higher
Silver Price Peak	Nearly $50 per ounce in January 1980	Approximately $49 per ounce in April 2011
Speed of the Rally	Rapid surge after years of relatively low prices	Strong multi-month rally following a long consolidation
Key Takeaway	In both cases, silver moved later than gold but rallied more aggressively once momentum built.

The 1979-1980 Silver Surge

The late 1970s were defined by severe inflation, economic uncertainty, and declining confidence in the US dollar. After the https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/bretton-woods-created";>collapse of the Bretton Woods system earlier in the decade, Americans faced rapidly rising prices for everyday foods. All the while, inflation rates continued a sharp incline.

Much like today, many investors sought hard assets that hedge against inflation. Precious metals in particular became a popular hedge commodity against rising inflation and economic instability.

One of the most controversial forces in the silver market at that time came from two brothers, Nelson and William Hunt. The Hunt brothers attempted to corner a large portion of the global silver supply, a strategy they pursued by buying massive quantities of physical metal and futures contracts.

Their purchases helped push silver prices dramatically higher. By January 1980, the metal briefly reached close to $50 per ounce. This was an extraordinary shift when one considers that silver had traded below $10 just a few years before.

The 2010-2011 Silver Bull Market

Roughly 30 years later, silver experienced another powerful rally following the 2008 global financial crisis.

To combat the crisis, central banks around the world launched aggressive stimulus programs. These often included https://www.investopedia.com/terms/q/quantitative-easing.asp";>quantitative easing and near-zero interest rates policies. These measures flooded financial markets with liquidity and fueled widespread concerns about currency debasement.

Investors responded to this change by pouring money into precious metals. https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/silver/coins";>Demand for physical silver coins and bullion skyrocketed, and exchange-traded funds brought new institutional participation into the market.

Similar to the 1979-1980, silver prices climbed to nearly $50 per ounce once again.

What The Breakouts Had in Common

Both of these major rallies were driven by similar forces:

Rising inflation fears
Instability in currency systems
Rapid influx of investors seeking protection in precious metal assets

These times also revealed a pattern:

Gold typically moved first in times of financial stress
Silver often follows after gold, but once it does, its movements tend to be faster and more dramatic

Technical Signals of a Silver Price Breakout

While macroeconomics trends often drive long-term precious metals markets, technical traders closely watch chart patterns and indicators for signs that a silver price breakout may be approaching.

One of the most important signals is long-term resistance levels. Resistance represents a price zone where silver has historically struggled to move higher. When the metal repeatedly tests this level over months or years, it forms a multi-year consolidation range.

Markets that trade sideways for long periods often build pressure beneath resistance. When that level finally breaks, prices can move sharply higher.

Technical analysts also monitor momentum indicators to gauge the strength of price movements. Tools like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and key moving averages help traders identify whether buying pressure is building. Rising momentum alongside steady price gains can suggest that a market is preparing for a breakout rather than fading.

Another common signal appears through breakout chart patterns, including ascending triangles, cup-and-handle formations, and long consolidation bases. These patterns reflect shifts in supply and demand as sellers gradually lose control of the market.

Several additional clues tend to emerge as silver approaches a potential breakout phase. One is rising trading volume, which indicates increasing participation and conviction among buyers. Higher volume often confirms that a move is gaining strength.

Another historical pattern involves the relationship between gold and silver. Gold typically begins trending higher first during precious metals bull markets. As momentum builds in gold, investors often rotate into silver in search of greater upside.

Because silver markets are smaller and https://www.moneymetals.com/guides/best-way-to-buy-gold-and-silver";>more volatile than gold, technical traders pay close attention during these periods. Once silver breaks through major resistance, the move can unfold quickly, which rewards those who recognized the signals early.

Macro Forces That Could Drive Silver Higher

Several large-scale factors can drive a silver price breakout. Three major ones include:

Inflation and currency debasement
Real interest rates
Global debt and financial instability

Let's talk about what these mean in greater detail.

Inflation and Currency Debasement

During times of high inflation and currency debasement, precious metals quickly become attractive options for investors. The reason for this is that precious metals have intrinsic value that makes them a natural hedge against inflation.

Typically, gold is the preferred precious metal for investors who seek long-term hedging against inflation and debasement. However, many people will also invest in silver.

This interest in silver even extends beyond individual investors. As the US dollar has weakened, several central banks have purchased gold to decrease reliance on the dollar. However, in 2026, some central banks have gone further; they have allocated funds for silver purchases.

https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/commodities/metal/261487879-2026-silver-physical-squeeze-strategic-asset-tradingkey";>Trading Key lists some of these countries as:

Russia
India
Saudi Arabia

Real Interest Rates

Negative real interest rates refer to instances when inflation exceeds nominal interest rates. Often, these negative real interest rates support precious metals by lowering the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

What does that mean for investors? Simply put, it makes gold and silver attractive hedges against purchasing power loss. Bonds often become less attractive in such conditions, making precious metals the biggest investment for wealth preservation.

One of the other critical reasons for this is that gold and silver do not pay interest or dividends. When interest rates are high, precious metals are often less attractive. When real rates are negative, the cost of missing out on interest income from bonds or cash is minimal, it boosts the relative appeal of precious metals.

Global Debt and Financial Instability

Global debt and financial insecurity also typically boost silver prices by driving investors toward safe-haven assets. This trend is particularly during periods of high inflation or currency devaluation.

Because silver is a non-yielding asset, as well as a tangible one, it thrives on fiscal instability. In particular, it thrives on falling, low-interest rates.

Supply and Demand Trends in the Silver Market

Three major factors impact supply and demand trends in the silver market:

Industrial demand growth
Physical investment demand
Mining supply constraints

Industrial Demand Growth

One of the biggest influences on silver supply and demand has been industrial demand growth. Silver is a metal with tremendous industrial value because of some of its scientific properties.

First, silver is a highly conductive metal. It is excellent at conducting electricity and heat.

Second, it is an antibacterial metal. That makes it perfect for medical devices.

Because of these factors, silver has become a critical component in the medical, industrial, automotive, and electronic sectors. Specifically, silver is used in some of the following devices:

Solar panels
Electric vehicles
Stethoscopes
Smartphones

Physical Investment Demand

The demand for a physical investment drives silver prices for basic economic reasons. Silver has a limited supply; therefore, when there is a high demand, prices rise to ensure the supply does not deplete too rapidly.

There are two main methods for purchasing silver in physical form:

Coins
Bars

Rounds are a third way of buying physical silver; these items look like coins, but come from private mints. They do not have legal tender status or the recognizability that coins often have.

Retail investors have also become interested in silver. One of its biggest retail uses is in jewelry, often as sterling silver. Sterling silver has a 92.5% silver composition, with the remaining 7.5% coming from a copper alloy. This copper element gives the metal increased luster and durability.

Mining Supply Constraints

Another factor that affects silver prices is the constraint of mining production. Silver mining has an interesting feature that sets it apart from other metals; namely, silver is rarely the focus of mining.

Instead, silver is usually a byproduct of other metal mining. This has interesting implications for the silver market.

First, it means that silver mining does not always respond to price demands. Mining companies do not shift focus to find more silver when the prices increase. As a result, it can take time for silver mining supply to catch up with the market demand.

This delay can be exacerbated by geopolitical tensions and conflicts. Metal mining is an international industry; increased taxes, tariffs, embargos, sanctions, and other factors can keep silver from hitting the market.

What Happens When Silver Breaks Out

When silver finally breaks above a major resistance level, the market often enters a fast-moving phase. Unlike many assets that trend gradually, silver has a history of rapid and sometimes dramatic price accelerations once momentum builds.

The first stage of a breakout usually attracts technical traders and institutional investors who closely monitor chart patterns. When resistance is clearly breached, these participants often enter the market quickly. When this occurs, it adds immediate buying pressure.

The second phase begins as silver prices continue rising. Momentum traders and hedge funds may increase their positions, and silver's volatility tends to expand. At this point, the breakout starts becoming more noticeable across financial markets.

Eventually, retail investors notice the trend and begin participating in it. This prompts more notoriety, including:

Expanding media coverage
Social media discussion

As the movement gains more visibility, it attracts investors who previously ignored silver. This move causes an influx of new buyers, which amplifies the movement further.

Another important feature of silver breakouts is the ways they can affect related assets. Silver mining stocks frequently outperform the metal itself during strong rallies because rising prices can significantly increase mining company profit margins.

What does this mean for the market? It means that both physical silver and silver mining equities receive a flow of capital.

These dynamics often create a powerful feedback loop:

Rising prices attract new buyers
The increased demand pushes prices higher

Because silver markets are relatively small compared to other major asset classes, it does not take enormous capital flows to drive large price swings. Once a breakout begins, the move can develop swiftly. Investors who recognize the setup early get to reap the most reward.

How Investors Position Themselves for a Silver Breakout

When investors begin anticipating a potential silver price breakout, many look for ways to gain exposure before prices accelerate. Because silver can move quickly once momentum builds, positioning early is often part of the strategy.

For many investors, the simplest approach is owning physical silver. Bullion coins and silver bars provide direct https://www.moneymetals.com/silver-price";>exposure to the spot price itself without relying on financial intermediaries.

Physical ownership also eliminates counterparty risk that can exist in paper-based investments. As a result, many precious metals investors view physical silver as the foundation of their allocation.

Silver Mining Stocks

Other investors choose exposure through silver mining stocks. Mining companies often provide leverage to rising silver prices because their profits can increase dramatically when the metal's price climbs.

However, mining stocks also come with additional risks, including:

Operational challenges
Political factors
Management decisions

The key takeaway from this is that, while silver mining stocks can offer dividends and returns, they can also be more volatile than the metal itself. That volatility can increase investment risk.

Silver Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs)

Some investors prefer exchange-traded funds (ETFs) or other paper silver products because they offer liquidity and convenience. ETFs allow investors to gain exposure to silver price movements without storing physical metal. That said, some investors remain cautious about relying solely on paper instruments tied to the silver market.

Many long-term investors also use dollar-cost averaging when building a position. Instead of trying to perfectly time a breakout, they gradually accumulate silver over time. This approach reduces the risk of entering the market at a temporary peak.

Ultimately, different investors choose different strategies, but the goal is the same: gaining exposure before silver's next major move unfolds.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q: What is a silver price breakout?
A: A silver breakout occurs when silver rises above a key resistance level that previously prevented prices from moving higher. After trading within a defined range for months or years, a breakout signals that buying demand has overcome selling pressure. When this happens, prices can sometimes accelerate quickly as traders and investors enter the market.
Q: Why does silver often move after gold?
A: Historically, gold tends to lead precious metals bull markets. Investors often buy gold first because it is viewed as the primary monetary metal and a safe-haven asset. As gold prices rise and confidence builds in the broader metals market, investors frequently shift their attention to silver. Because silver's market is smaller, this influx of capital can drive faster and more volatile price moves.
Q: What factors could trigger a silver breakout?
A: Several conditions can contribute to a silver price breakout. Rising inflation, declining confidence in fiat currencies, and negative real interest rates often push investors toward precious metals. Strong industrial demand for silver, particularly from solar energy and electronics, can also tighten supply and support higher prices.
Q: Is silver more volatile than gold?
A: Yes. Silver is generally more volatile than gold because its market is smaller and it serves both monetary and industrial roles. This means price swings can be larger in both directions. While this volatility can increase risk, it also explains why silver has historically delivered some of the most dramatic rallies during precious metals bull markets.

Silver Price Breakout Takeaways

The recent silver price breakout came after years of silver remaining fairly quiet. It had the features of typical silver trade, with sideways price volumes that built into a period of high price rises. Indeed, as noted earlier, silver traded at just $50-$55 in November 2025 before doubling that price in January 2026.

Since then, silver has consolidated with a price range typically falling between $80-$90. It is unclear how long that will continue. Whether the current silver price breakout trends continue or pause, the underlying forces shaping the silver market remain powerful.

What does that mean for an investor? First, it's not too late to invest in silver. Just because silver already reached a historic high does not mean it cannot be a good investment, nor does it mean that a breakout cannot happen again.

So, it's a good idea to have some silver in your portfolio. Including it now positions you better to take advantage of a future breakout.

Second, even if a breakout is a long time in coming, silver continues its traditional purpose of hedging against inflation and devaluation of the dollar. In times of economic and geopolitical uncertainty, silver can still offer security.

Investors can benefit from researching current silver prices and assets to see if they fit into their financial strategies. You can begin that research by https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/silver";>checking out our silver inventory. We have a wide range of silver products to help investors find some security in uncertain times. Find the best products for your portfolio today!

Is Gold the LAST Haven Standing? | Silver Coin Super Sale

Fri, 13 Mar 2026 00:00:00 EST

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.

Coming up in a moment, we have an exclusive interview with Brien Lundin, President and CEO of Jefferson Financial, editor of the Gold Newsletter and the man behind the renowned New Orleans Investment Conference.

Mike Maharrey and Brien discuss where we are in the gold and silver markets in terms of longer-term potential for the metals, and also weigh in on the war with Iran and the implications for gold. Brien has a very interesting take that may surprise you when it comes to the effect war has on gold demand, and why you might want to keep your focus on other matters instead of whatever short-term gyrations that may occur in the gold price based on war headlines.

So be sure to stick around for another fascinating conversation with metals and financial industry insider Brien Lundin, coming up after this week’s market update. And as a reminder please download, like, rate and subscribe to this podcast wherever you consume this content.

Well, gold seems to be the last safe-haven standing.

While one would expect U.S. Treasuries to get a boost from the geopolitical uncertainty inherent in a war, they have not. In fact, the 10-year Treasury yield has jumped from 3.96 percent the day before the U.S. and Israel launched their attack to 4.28 percent here this morning.

The 30-year yield has taken a similar trajectory, nudging up from 4.63 percent on February 26th to 4.87 percent today.

This indicates tepid demand for U.S. debt.

Meanwhile, gold was the go-to safe-haven when news of the war hit the presses. The yellow metal surged above $5,400 an ounce before giving back most of those gains a few days into the hostilities.

So why aren’t U.S. Treasuries catching a safe-haven bid?

There are two reasons. One is specific to the dynamics of this war, and the other is a more fundamental shift away from U.S. dollar assets.

Forest for the Trees founder and respected macroeconomic analyst Luke Groman says the problems in the Treasury market trace back to the outsized role oil plays in the conflict with Iran. He said the sudden oil shock exposes the limitations of a global financial system built on dollars.

The fact that the world’s oil market runs on dollars means every country in the world depends on the U.S. currency. Global investors hold around $27 trillion in dollar-denominated assets, including U.S. Treasuries. Groman argued that with oil prices surging, foreign nations are stuck between a rock and a hard place.

They have to have energy, they have to have food, they have to have these commodities. And so, they will sell dollar assets starting with treasuries because they're the deepest and most liquid, to essentially buy oil, Groman said.

The war is playing out on a larger game board. Treasuries have been struggling for months because many countries simply don’t want any more exposure to U.S. fiscal malfeasance. https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/02/19/no-the-national-debt-problem-isnt-getting-better-004701";>The national debt has surged to $38.9 trillion. Meanwhile, the federal government has shown zero interest in reining in spending. On top of that, it is blowing through an additional $1 billion per day to fight the war.

Would you want to lend your drunk uncle, who has maxed out all his credit cards, more money?

If not, you understand how the rest of the world feels about Uncle Sam.

So, it’s not surprising that many countries are anxious to minimize their exposure to the dollar. We see this reflected in https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/03/11/de-dollarization-gold-and-a-shift-to-a-multipolar-world-003898";>accelerating de-dollarization and the fact that https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/01/08/gold-tops-treasuries-as-worlds-biggest-foreign-reserve-asset-004597";>gold recently climbed above Treasuries as the world’s biggest foreign reserve asset. When times get tough, you don’t want rapidly devaluing dollars backed by a spend-happy U.S. government. You want real money – gold – backed by nobody.

Many countries are also concerned about the https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/02/29/could-weaponization-of-the-dollar-as-a-foreign-policy-billy-club-accelerate-de-dollarization-003013";>weaponization of the U.S. currency. In https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/golds-geopolitical-comeback-how-physical-and-digital-gold-can-be-used-to-evade-us-sanctions/?tblci=GiCB9a4pBBlehdsJSAXBSvtzY7kC2AKY69BgUiVdqNpQmSDKuWUo-sCAu_nVmNN8MK67Pg";>an article published by the Atlantic Council, Kimberly Donovan and Maia Nikoladze point out that “central banks that are worried about getting sanctioned, want to protect themselves from a potential global financial crisis – or both, have been stacking up gold at record levels.”

Make no mistake. This is a big problem for the U.S. because it depends on the global demand for dollars supported by its reserve status to underpin its massive government.

The only reason Uncle Sam can borrow, spend, and run massive budget deficits to the extent that it does is the dollar’s role as the world's reserve currency. It creates a built-in global demand for dollars and dollar-denominated assets. This absorbs the Federal Reserve’s money creation and helps maintain dollar strength despite the Federal Reserve’s inflationary policies.

If the world needs fewer dollars, they will begin to return to the U.S., causing a dollar glut. This will increase inflationary pressure domestically as the value of the U.S. currency further depreciates. In the worst-case scenario, the dollar could collapse completely, leading to hyperinflation.

Groman pointed out a sobering reality: Iran doesn't have to beat the U.S. military, it needs only to beat the bond market.

Looking at the weekly market action before we get to this week’s interview, gold is down a little more than $100 or 2.3% to check in at $5,057 an ounce as of this Friday midday recording.

As for silver, the white metal was mostly flat for the week through yesterday’s close but is pulling back here today. Currently silver trades at $80.97, down an even $4 or 4.7% on the week.

As for the PGMs, platinum is off another 5.3% this week and checks in at $2,051. Palladium meanwhile is showing a weekly decline of 3.6% to trade at $1,587 an ounce.

Well now, without further delay let’s get right to our exclusive interview with the man behind the famous New Orleans Investment Conference, Brien Lundin.

Mike Maharrey: Greetings, I'm Mike Maharrey, and I'm thrilled to be joined once again today by Brien Lundin. Brien serves as president and CEO of Jefferson Financial. He is the publisher and editor of the gold newsletter and host of the New Orleans Investment Conference, which is the oldest and most respected investment events of its kind. And I'm going to let him tell you about that when we get to the end of the show. But before that, we're going to talk a little bit about precious metals. How are you today, Brien?

Brien Lundin: I'm doing wonderfully. Mike, wonderfully. Can't complain. A lot of volatility obviously in the markets and actually in gold, lessening volatility and as we're trading in a range. But I put something out the other day. If you look at the long term and you keep your perspective of where it should be, this thing has a long way to go. So yes, long way of saying, I'm doing fine. Thank you.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah, outstanding. Well, obviously right now we've got the war with Iran and that's really driving headlines right now. And of course, I know you were bullish on gold and silver before the war, and we've talked about those reasons. And I get the sense from what you just said, you're still bullish on gold and silver. So I guess my question is, has your calculus on precious metals changed because of the war or is it just kind of a blip that's creating a lot of market volatility and speculation at this point? How are you kind of reading the trajectory of this conflict?

Brien Lundin: Yeah, it's the latter. War as hell. War is no good for anybody. But for gold, it really is a misnomer that geopolitics drives gold and geopolitical risk drives gold. It does over a few days’ time but that's really just a trade. It's a bet by speculators. And the Sharpies are first in and first out, and they end up handing the bag to somebody who said, "Oh, I got to buy gold because shots are being fired somewhere in the world." The only reason to own gold, and it's a strong enough reason, we don't really need to look any further, is to hedge against the depreciation of your currency, your home currency's purchasing power. It is a trend that is accelerating right now is an artifact of human nature that occurs over and over and over again throughout human history. We're in the end game of one of those trends right now, and that's why you see gold prices accelerating to the upside.

A slight caveat to that, in that central banks are buying now because of ... I think they recognize the debt situation, et cetera, but also because of the weaponization of the US dollar, which is its basis in US hegemony and somewhat in geopolitics, but that just highlights the security of gold, the independent nature of gold, the no counterparty nature of gold, it protects wealth against jeopardations of governments, whether those come from outside the borders or inside the borders.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah, absolutely. And to your point, Metals Focus actually did an analysis of the trajectory of gold over the last, basically since the 80s. So kind of in the modern era as far as military conflicts goes, and they found exactly the same thing that you just said, looking at the data. You tend to get a bump in the first days of the war as everybody kind of jumps into that safe haven trade, and then it tends to actually correct, which we've already seen. And then the trajectory of gold during a conflict usually has more to do with the other underlying dynamics like monetary policy and those types of things. So, what you said is actually proved out by the data. So, how would you advise an investor who is looking at the volatility, who sees gold go up to $5,400 an ounce when the war starts and then, all of a sudden, it's back down to 5,200 and you see these price swings because of a headline.

We saw oil sell off the other day because Trump said the war was over. So we had these crazy swings in the markets. How do investors keep their senses and maintain an equilibrium in this kind of environment?

Brien Lundin: Well, they look for the longer-term. They recognize those trends. They look at the horizon and not at their feet. These trends aren't going to be ... I mean, if people think that because this volatility or whatever else is going on in the world, that all of a sudden we're not going to have any more deficit spending that we're going to grow our way with productivity out of it. We're going to raise taxes enough to pay off the debt and we're going to cut spending. If all of that happens, then I might be a gold bear, but I don't think any of it's going to happen, and therefore these trends will play out. Now that we have the Western investors in the market though, and they kind of came in force in the late summer, we're getting more wiggles in the line. We're getting more volatility and we'll have to be prepared for that.

There's good and the bad. Be careful what you ask for. We were waiting for them to come in. They drove a couple of powerful rallies last fall and January and equally steep declines. When they come in, they come in in mass, and when they leave, they leave the same way. And so we're just going to have to get used to that.

But the long-term trend will remain. And one of the patterns we've seen over this now two year old bull market is that we really haven't had too many true technical corrections. We've just had one a little while back, we had one in January, late January. But other than that, we only had two 10% drawdowns over the entire period because of the support of central bank buying. I think that pattern, generally speaking, is going to continue and that we tend to trade sideways more and cure price excesses through time rather than price. And we're in one of those periods right now. Now we're talking about volatility, but in fact, if you look at gold's Ballinger bands, the gap width continues to fall. So indicating actually a drop in volatility and the fact that we're in one of those sideways patterns right now. So, I think we're going to break out looking at it, the wet finger and the wind, nobody can really tell what the timing is, but I think we probably have two or three more weeks of the sideways trading before we can really look at the next breakout.

Mike Maharrey: And when we had the last gold correction, we kind of saw the same thing. We traded sideways for several months and then broke to the high side once again. It's really interesting though, we talked about the fact that historically wars haven't really moved the needle in the precious metals markets over the long term, but in that metals focus analysis, and I thought this was an interesting point, they did point out a few things that they thought might actually have some longer range implications. And one of those was the fact that it could drive inflation a bit higher. And I think saying it'll drive inflation a bit higher is probably an understatement. Do you agree with that? Because typically wars ... I mean, when you said something about lowering the deficit, I almost laughed out loud because we all know that's not a thing that's not happening, right? And in fact, I would argue that the war would probably increase that. So do you actually see if this war continues to play out at actually increasing inflationary pressures?

Brien Lundin: Well, it'll increase price pressures. I'm more of the classic Austrian economist.

Mike Maharrey: I'm glad you said that because I just did something that I hate. I conflated price inflation and actual inflation. I meant actual inflation. We know that there's going to be some price volatility. We can probably anticipate an oil price shock, but I'm talking about real inflation, which comes from money creation, which is the fruit of borrowing and spending. So, I should have been clear on that.

Brien Lundin: And that might be a knock-on effect of it all and probably will, because I was just commenting the other day to somebody that the interest on the federal debt, just the debt service costs on the debt now exceed what we spend in national defense. Now we're going to have to replace a lot of missiles. So maybe national defense is going to rise above debt service costs temporarily, but that's just another sign that deficit spending is growing and we're going to have to pay for this. So those dollars will then have to be created out of thin air. And there's a lot of really smart people, a lot of really smart people that speak in my conference every year and they talk about how the Fed insulates that and sterilizes this debt and brings it into the Fed balance sheet and it's not loaned out in the public.

So, it doesn't have quite the multiplier effect, but the thing that they ignore is that money spent. Debt is money spent in federal debt. So it's already gone through the economy at least once, one roundabout trip and had whatever knock on effects it's going to have and whatever multiplier effects. So it's already happened and debt is money that has to be created somehow. And we're going to have more of that. There's no sign that's going to abate anytime soon.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah. And the fact of the matter is the Fed stealthily restarted quantitative easing in December. Now they're never going to use the term quantitative easing. And if you ask them that, they would say, ‘It's not happening.’ But they are buying treasuries and injecting that new money into the economy. And we are seeing a modest, but an increase in the Fed balance sheet. This was before the war.

Brien Lundin: And you'll remember they did the precise same thing in September of 2019. And I'm not saying they knew COVID was coming, but they did have some problems there that had to be ... And they denied that it was quantitative easing because it wasn't across the entire curve. Well, who cares?

Mike Maharrey: Right. Right. It's like if you have an albino duck, well, that's not really a duck because it's white.

Brien Lundin: Right, because of swan-like.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah, yeah, exactly. Yeah. So, I was perusing a few of your newsletters and I came across something that I thought was interesting. So, I'm just going to throw this at you and let you expound on it because I think people will find this fascinating. And it really goes to the underlying dynamics that we're talking about in the economy that war or no war is going to continue unabated. And this is what you said. One of the craziest things that happened is that the major stock indexes ended 2025 at an all- time high and a 12-year low at the same time. Okay. How's that possible?

Brien Lundin: Yeah, actually that's quoting my friend Bob Pretcher of Elliot Watchers who's one of the smartest and nicest guys you'll find in the business. He has some wonderful insights. Whatever you've used on Elliot Wave, the use of, well, Bob's views on long-term economic trends and the role of gold is really unparalleled, unsurpassed, at least in the industry. And what Bob was pointing out is that when you measure things in gold, you see that gold prices don't really fluctuate, but everything else fluctuates around gold. So yeah, it's a long-term low. When you look at the stock market as measured in gold, when you look at it as measured in dollars, which have depreciated, it's a lot more dollars around then it's made a high. There's a great website that does a wonderful job of illustrating this called pricedingold.com. And if you look at that, and I use the charts on that all the time in my presentations, you'll see that the S&P 500 is trading today at about the same level as the 1930s and 1940s, priced in gold.

If you price an Ivy League college education in gold, it costs the same in gold today as it did in the 1930s. The Big Mac is cheaper in gold now than it was as prices actually dropped since the 1980s across a number of currencies if you price it in gold. So, gold is the standard, and it's not that the price of gold varies, but that the prices of everything else revolve around gold as a standard. And once you understand that, it's like if Copernicus and the whole heliocentric model of the sun is the center of the solar system, once you realize that gold is the center of the financial system, the monetary system, at least, and everything else revolves around it, then you truly understand its role. You understand that currencies always depreciate against that standard because of human nature, and sometimes that depreciation accelerates and gold stands as your only protection against that.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah, absolutely. That's fascinating too. And I think it goes to another point that we kind of swerved into by accident a few minutes ago, that inflation when properly defined, and you and I, as classic Austrian economists, when we say inflation, what we mean is an increase in the supply of money and credit. And then you have price inflation, which is a symptom of that monetary inflation. We live in a world now where they've switched those definitions. So, when people say inflation, they just mean price increases. And so in the 2008, when they were doing all of that QE and there was all this money printing going on and people were saying, "Oh my gosh, there's going to be inflation." And then consumer prices really didn't go up all that much. People said, "Oh, well, there was no inflation." Well, all of it went into the stock market, right?

We can look at that stock market and when you price it in gold, you see that effect. Whereas if you are pricing in Fiat, you just feel like you're getting richer when really you're not.

Brien Lundin: Yeah. Instead of retail or consumer price inflation, and this is something we've seen really throughout the century, the 2000s, we've had asset value inflation rather than classic price inflation. But you bring up another great point, when they came in with all that liquidity and the rescue operations post- COVID, and those rescue operations were multiples of what they did after the GFC in 2008, and had to be because they had to have the shock and awe, the markets had grown tolerant to the drug. So anyway, they came in with all that liquidity and those rescue efforts, and gold doubled in price very quickly. And then there was no real retail price inflation. And then later, 18 months later, there was tremendous retail price inflation, and everybody said, "Well, gold's not responding. It's not an inflation edge." No, no. Gold shot up because it predicted all investments, all assets are predictive mechanisms.

Gold probably more sensitive than any other one out there. And gold predicted the repercussions of that liquidity coming down the road. So gold had already responded to the inflation. It doesn't respond tick for tick, but it anticipates and predicts what is coming down the road, and it did so incredibly accurately.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah, that's a really good point. I hadn't actually thought about that. So, kind of thinking about the war, for me, the impact on gold is pretty simple. I'm kind of ignoring the war, other than maybe the fact that the war could accelerate de-dollarization, could accelerate money printing. Silver to me is a little bit more complicated because I think you do have the potential with a, especially if the war runs longer, you do have the potential for some economic contraction in the global economy. And given that silver has a high percentage of industrial demand, that makes the calculus there a little bit more difficult, at least it does in my mind. So do you think that silver is also going to get a booster? Is there some potential pitfalls there if we do go into a deep recession with the economy contracting?

Brien Lundin: Yeah. If we get into a recession, the Fed is going, and all other central banks around the world are going to come through with liquidity and everything will get turned ... All risk assets will soar again, including the metals. And of course, there may be along the way some sharp corrections, some sharp sell off a liquidity vacuum that sends everything out, the baby of the bath water and the metals would get hit, but again, things will quickly recover as we saw post 2008. So yeah, I think that'll happen. The real risk of these geopolitical flashpoints like this is that they obscure the underlying reasons to own gold, and they get the public thinking that it's just a geopolitical thing. And then when peace breaks out, as it eventually does, they think, "Oh, there's no longer any reason to buy gold to own gold and the traders sell it, the momentum, you get downward momentum and the underlying trend is obscured." We saw that happen after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Gold shot up as soon as they invaded. A few weeks later, it went to the back pages, no longer the front pages, gold sold off and established a downtrend when in fact the base for the new bull market was being built right then and there with all the central banks saying, "Whoa, this dollar gun can be pointed at us as well, so let's start buying gold." So, it obscured what was going on.

Silver is interesting. When we get back to the uptrend, a monetarily based uptrend, silver will outperform gold. The very deep analytical reason for that is because it always has, and it's probably going to do it again, as simple as that. Silver's really interesting to me these days, because you may remember in some of our earlier talks that I usually dismissed the industrial demand for silver because of my belief that the monetary cachet of silver and its attachment to gold validates the vast majority of silver's value.

Well, this is interesting right now, this current situation and that industrial demand for silver is finally having an impact because the above ground supplies have been eaten away. In the past, and even back in the time when you had photographic usages for silver, there's plenty of silver around for industry. You had these spikes in value for monetary demand, but industry never had a problem getting the silver needed. This is the first time that I can know of, that I can think of in history where industry has to bid against investment demand to get silver supplies. And industry has to have the silver. It's not a choice. It's mandatory for industry and it's not an obligation for investors. So, investors really have industry by the you know what, and they can spite the price of whatever, industry needs that silver and it needs it now. It needs supplies, it needs security of supplies.

So, we see that the paper silver markets, the futures and options are now being used by industry, instead of a way to bet on the direction of silver prices, they're using it as a mechanism for obtaining physical silver. So, everything's turned upside down in the silver market and all of these developments point toward an ever more tightening silver market and ever higher prices. It will be interesting though when we get to about 125, 135 or so. A number of reports that I've seen is that's when it's going to start affecting solar panel costs or production costs. I know intimately that it's very difficult to innovate around silver in solar panels. And so it's going to be interesting.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah. That's a really good point that you make in terms of the physical supply of silver, because that's really the crux of it, right? I mean, we can talk about the paper trading and all of that all day, but the bottom line is if there's not enough silver, that's a problem.

And, it's interesting because the silver institute is projecting a slight dip in industrial demand this year, and yet they believe that that's going to be compensated for, and then some by investment demand. So that really kind of confirms what you're saying in terms of what's going on in the market. And I've said this over and over again, look at those physical supplies, look at those physical deficits because that's the bottom line. And as you say, the paper traders, they can do what they can do, but the guy that needs the silver to put in the solar panel, he's got to do it, right?

Brien Lundin: Right. He's got to pay up. He can't buy copper.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah. So, you mentioned the fact that there's these underlying dynamics that are supporting in precious metals markets, and it is easy to have them obscured when you have something like a war going on. What is probably, what is one of the top things that you think is going to drive the gold and silver markets as we move forward in the next year or so that people are missing right now, that it's kind of flying under the radar?

Brien Lundin: I don't know if people are missing it, but I think they're underappreciating it or not giving it as just due. And that's the rotation effect. Throughout the 2000s, even the early 2000s, and especially at the great financial crisis, we've seen just tremendous amounts of liquidity created. There's probably more investible funds, probably about three times as much investible funds sloshing around the world's markets, looking for a home than there was in 2008. And all of that money, all that huge masses of liquidity sloshing around is starting to slosh into this little lagoon we have of metals and miners, and it's going to have an outside effects going to be like a tsunami of liquidity coming into the markets. And it's not that big funds out there and institutions are putting 20% of their investable assets into metals and miners, but they might be putting 1% or 2%.

In fact, they can't show their investors that they are not invested in the sector that has gained the much the most over the last quarter, two quarters, year, two years, five years. Oh, we don't have any of that stuff. They can't do that. So, you're seeing a rotation into the sector of from zero to 1%, from a half percent to one and a half. And in the aggregate, that makes a huge difference to this sector. And it's all part of the great debasement trade. This is the stuff that you and I have been talking about for years and years. I've been talking about it since the ... Well, earnestly talking about it since the great financial crisis, but now Wall Street has slapped this marketing moniker on it, the debasement trade. Why didn't I think of that?

Mike Maharrey: I know, right?

Brien Lundin: That's beautiful. And so, it's become a thematic, a mematic investment for Wall Street, and now they're coming out with HALO, hard asset, low obsolescence. This is beautiful. All the guys out there in their Land’s End vests and stuff on Wall Street are now talking about this over lunch and cocktail parties, and we're seeing the result of that in rotations into the sector. And I think that along with continued central bank buying is the real elephant in the room that's really driving this market.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah. Part of me feels vindicated by that. And then part of me is a little bit resentful because these same people were calling me a weirdo a few years ago when I was talking about the debasement of trade.

Brien Lundin: Well, I said a while back, I said that gold has gone from tinfoil to Tina. There's no alternative, and they used to laugh at us for investing in the sector. And I think they're still embarrassed about it. If you look on CNBC, you look at the price bugs of all the asset classes. Bitcoin is now up there all day long in its own little price bug, and gold sometimes has not shown at all.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah. Well, I got tickled when we had the little post-invasion correction, which I think ... So I shouldn't say invasion. I don't guess we've actually invaded Iran, but the military operations, they started on a Friday night, if I remember correctly. And then it was, I think, on Tuesday of the next week that everything kind of sold off. It's like, oh my gosh, there really is a war. And there was a headline on CNBC, and it talked about how the momentum trades of gold and silver were unraveling. They didn't mention the fact that the stock market was selling off, bonds were selling off. Literally everything was selling off. Yeah. They focused right in on gold and silver, which I thought was a little bit ridiculous, but that just kind of tells you where the mainstream's head is. So it is what it is, right?

Brien Lundin: I agree.

Mike Maharrey: All right. So before we go, I told you that I would give you an opportunity to tell people about the New Orleans Financial Conference, and I want you to do that. I know we're like, what, still eight months out, but I bet you have some things in the works already. And so first off, tell folks what it is who might not be familiar, and then make your pitch. I want to try to make it out there this year because it's-

Brien Lundin: Oh, you need to come, Mike. It is unique in the industry, and I'm comfortable in saying that. I know I'm talking to my own book, but talk to anybody who's been, and they'll tell you it's really the best thing going. And the reason, quite frankly, is that we focus on quality. We bring the best minds out there. If there's one thing I'll give myself credit for is that over decades in this business, I know who really makes good arguments. Sometimes arguments I don't agree with, but well-founded sound arguments that we need to consider one way or the other. And we bring all of these people, the best minds out there on social media, on X, on YouTube, and we bring them there. They'll say things they're not saying anywhere else. You'll hear it live in person, you'll get to meet these people, you get to rub shoulders with them, ask them your questions.

It's an opportunity that's unparalleled, both in degree and in scope. We have more of these speakers. You can find three or four of the speakers at one of my events at other conferences, but you're not going to find 40. That's what we bring to the table. And the conference is the oldest, longest running investment event in the world. Jim Blanchard, who started everything that I do, held his first event in 1974 after he was successful, or while actually he was being successful and getting gold legalized in the US. So we've got that longstanding foundation in precious metals and mining stocks and the like. So you'll see a lot of that there, but you're also going to get in- depth discussions of macroeconomics, the markets and every asset class out there by some of the top experts in the world. And you're going to meet a lot of fellow investors who buy their very attendance at this event, have demonstrated that they're among the smartest and most successful investors out there.

So, it's a great gathering, and it's in New Orleans, so it's a lot of fun and interesting as well.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah. It's an opportunity to enjoy yourself and get smarter at the same time.

Brien Lundin: Yep.

Mike Maharrey: By the way, I misspoke. It is the New Orleans Investment Conference. I think I said financial.

Brien Lundin: It's been called everything in the book, but we don't care as long as you come.

Mike Maharrey: It's the thing in New Orleans.

Brien Lundin: That thing in New Orleans. Yeah. Great!

Mike Maharrey: So, have you set the dates for 2026?

Brien Lundin: Yeah. It's October 28th to 31st this year. So we do end on Halloween. For those of you who don't trick or treat at home, you can enjoy Halloween in New Orleans, which is something to check off.

Mike Maharrey: Yes.

Brien Lundin: It is a bucket list item, but we're also adjusting the agenda. So, if you need to leave early to get home for Halloween, You won't miss as much as you would in previous years and everything is recorded and you have full access to all of it.

Mike Maharrey: See, a good conference and smart planning too. I mean, what more could you ask for?

Brien Lundin: That's it.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah. Well, Brien, I really appreciate you coming on the show and sharing a little bit of your wisdom with us and your insights. Always appreciate hearing what you have to say and appreciate the work that you do out there. You're a benefit to humanity in my opinion. So thank you for that. And be interesting to see how things play out over the next few months. And I'm sure we'll have you back on the show again in the near future to-

Brien Lundin: Well, I appreciate the opportunity, Mike, and I feel similarly for you and your team, what you all do. We're all in it together and it's our time right now.

Mike Maharrey: Indeed. Well, thanks a lot and we'll talk again soon.

Brien Lundin: All righty. Take care.

Brien is always a terrific guest, and we thoroughly enjoyed having him on once again and hope you enjoyed that discussion and Brien’s take on the state of the broader markets, monetary policy and gold.

Well, that will do it for this week. Be sure to check back next Friday for our next Weekly Market Wrap Podcast. And don’t miss our second weekly podcast, the Money Metals Midweek Memo available each Wednesday. To check out any of our audio programs just visit https://www.moneymetals.com/podcasts";>MoneyMetals.com/podcasts or find them on places like Spotify, Apple Podcasts Google Podcasts, and other popular podcast platforms.

And as a big help to us we would ask you to please like, subscribe, download and rate our podcasts. Doing so helps us extend the reach of this material.

Until next time, this has been Mike Gleason with https://www.moneymetals.com/";>Money Metals Exchange, thanks for listening and have a wonderful weekend everybody.

Want Gold? Get a Duck!

Thu, 12 Mar 2026 00:00:00 EST

Want gold?

Get a duck!

A Chinese duck, to be specific.

A Chinese duck that lives near the Chenshui River in central China, to be even more specific.

You’ve heard of the goose that laid the golden egg? Well, it’s got nothing on the duck. And the duck was real.

No, I haven’t quacked up.

A farmer named Liu from Longhui county, Hunan province, found gold particles inside the stomach of a duck he slaughtered. A burning test confirmed the particles were, in fact, gold, weighing around 10 grams. The gold is valued at around 12,000 yuan ($1,800).

According to an article published by the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the duck was raised free-range near the river, which was once known for gold mining. The duck likely ingested mud containing the gold particles.

I know. This seems far-fetched. But Liu said he’s not the first villager to find gold in a duck’s belly. However, nobody has ever retrieved this much metal from a duck gut.

According to the SCMP, this isn’t nearly as strange as it probably sounds to you. During the Tang dynasty (618-907), farmers regularly collected gold particles from the feces of ducks and geese.

First, eww.

But on second thought, if you could pick money out of poop, wouldn’t you do it?

A spokesperson for the Longhui County Natural Resources Bureau said that while further testing was necessary to confirm the find, it wasn’t out of the realm of possibility. He noted that villagers collected around 10 grams of gold while washing sand by the same river last year.

There was a pretty significant gold rush along the Chenshui River in the 70s and 80s until the government banned private mining.

Under Chinese law, the state owns all underground resources, including gold. I would worry about the duck being prosecuted for illegal mining, but since he’s already dead, I guess it doesn’t matter.

Meanwhile, Liu’s father told the South China Post that finding gold inside a duck was a sign of good luck for the year ahead.

Or here’s a thought: that was the good luck for the year.

The news has some folks contemplating duck farming in China. One poster on social media proclaimed, “I need to know the exact location of this river within a day. I want to raise 1,000 ducks there.”

I get it. But let’s get real. You’re probably not going to make much money raising ducks to mine gold. It’s kind of https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/02/27/a-story-about-digging-money-out-of-the-ground-and-a-dumb-finance-professor-004724";>like panning for gold. It sounds fun. And it might be, for a day. But it’s actually very hard work and generally doesn’t generate a big payoff.

Still, the story underscores the excitement of finding gold – even if it’s inside a dead animal mixed with poo! People all over the world recognize the value of gold. They know it’s worth having, and they’ll go to extreme lengths to get it.

But there is an easier way. Just peruse MoneyMetals.com while you’re here, and you’ll find all kinds of gold products, from bullion coins to bars to jewelry. https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/specials";>We even have some bargains.

Or if you have questions, you can call 800-800-1865 and talk with a Money Metals precious metals specialist. Trust me, it’s a lot easier than sticking your hand in duck guts.

After a Holiday Surge, Consumer Borrowing Slowed in January Signaling Continued Consumer Stress

Thu, 12 Mar 2026 00:00:00 EST

Americans spent a lot of money on Christmas, and they put most of it on credit cards.

Now, it appears consumers have put the plastic back in their wallets. Consumer debt grew at a much slower pace in January, returning to the pre-holiday trend of muted borrowing.

The fact that https://www.moneymetals.com/podcasts/2025/11/12/the-debt-black-hole-004473";>the Debt Black Hole grew more slowly can certainly be viewed as a positive. But if Americans have reached their credit limits and are slowing their spending, that’s really bad news for an economy that depends on people buying stuff to keep limping along.

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Consumer debt grew by $8.1 billion in January, a 1.9 percent annual increase, according to https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/current/"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">the latest Federal Reserve data.

Americans are now buried under $5.11 trillion in consumer debt.

The Federal Reserve consumer debt figures include credit card debt, student loans, and auto loans, but do not factor in mortgage debt. When you include mortgages, https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/03/05/household-debt-rose-to-a-new-record-high-in-q4-2025-004742";>U.S. households are buried under a record $18.8 trillion in debt.

The rather modest increase in consumer debt is in line with the trend of slowing borrowing we’ve seen over the last year, as Americans have apparently run their credit cards close to the limit.

https://kpmg.com/us/en/articles/2025/august-2025-consumer-credit-outstanding.html"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">KPMG recently reported that the slowing growth of revolving credit likely reflects a drop in borrowing and spending by the bottom 80 percent of U.S. households “that are increasingly stressed.”

“The top 20 percent now account for nearly two-thirds of all consumption. The top 3.3 percent have increased spending the most. Spending has stagnated, adjusting for inflation, among the bottom 80 percent.”

The December growth in consumer debt was more than double the 2.4 percent average growth charted for the entirety of 2025.

Revolving credit balances, primarily reflecting credit card debt, blew up by 11.3 percent in December, as consumers let Visa and Mastercard pay for Christmas. It was the biggest monthly gain in nearly two years.

The pace of revolving credit growth slowed considerably in January, climbing by just $4.7 billion, a 4.3 percent increase.

Americans now owe $1.33 trillion in revolving debt.

The double whammy of rising debt and interest rates exacerbates the debt problem. https://www.bankrate.com/credit-cards/advice/current-interest-rates/";>The average annual percentage rate (APR) currently stands at 19.58 percent, with some companies still charging rates as high as 28 percent. The average is only slightly down from the record high of 20.79 percent set in August 2024, despite Fed rate cuts.

Non-revolving debt, reflecting outstanding auto loans, student loans, and loans for other big-ticket durable goods, also spiked in January, driven by a combination of Christmas spending and new student loans. And like revolving credit, the pace of growth also crashed in January, returning to the slowing trend we saw most of last year with a modest $3.3 billion increase.

The Christmas surge notwithstanding, over the last several months, non-revolving credit has averaged a tepid 2 percent increase rate. Before the pandemic, revolving credit growth averaged 5 percent. It appears consumers are opting not to finance big-ticket items, as more and more of their income is necessary just to pay daily expenses.

Growing Consumer Stress

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High levels of debt are stressing many American households, especially those on the lower end of the income scale.

LegalShield’s Consumer Stress Legal Index (CSLI) reflects the strain. As a spokesperson put it, “Financial strain has settled into a new normal for American households.”

The CSLI rose 4.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025. It was the third consecutive quarterly increase, pushing the index up 10.4 percent for the year.

The LegalShield Bankruptcy subindex was up 19.9 percent in the second half of 2025, charting a 15.6 percent increase year over year. According to LegalShield, its bankruptcy data has historically served as a leading indicator, preceding actual non-business bankruptcy filings by two quarters with a .95 correlation since 2006.

The Foreclosure subindex was up 15.0 percent year-over-year. According to LegalShield, “The high volume of legal inquiries suggests that homeowners are seeking help to manage rising housing costs.”

Meanwhile, New York Fed data indicate that some households are struggling to keep up with payments on all this debt.

According to the New York Fed, aggregate delinquencies worsened in the fourth quarter. As of the end of 2025, 4.8 percent of all debt was in some stage of delinquency. That was up from 4.5 percent in Q3.

Transitions into early delinquency increased for mortgages and student loans. Transition into delinquency was steady for other debt types.

Transitions into serious delinquency ticked up for credit card balances, mortgages, and student loans while auto loans and HELOC decreased slightly.

Student loan debt has the highest delinquency rate, with 9.6 percent of balances 90+ days overdue. According to the New York Fed, approximately 1 million student loan borrowers who were more than 120 days past due had their loans transferred to the U.S Department of Education’s Default Resolution Group.

Credit card delinquencies are rising, https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/08/26/economic-stress-credit-card-delinquencies-are-on-the-rise-even-among-those-with-prime-credit-004294";>even among consumers with strong credit scores. According to VantageScore, there was a 47 percent year-on-year increase in late payments by people in the prime segment in the third quarter of last year.

As the government showered Americans with stimulus during the pandemic years, many households paid down debt and boosted savings. However, as inflation spiked, Americans blew through their savings and turned to credit cards to make ends meet. The slowdown in debt accumulation could signal that consumers are nearly tapped out. This doesn’t bode well for an economy that depends on people buying stuff to continue limping along.

And even if consumers still have some borrowing power, an economy run on Visa and Mastercard simply isn't sustainable. When Americans finally hit their credit limit, it will have major implications for economic growth.

What's Up With the Treasury Market? Why Is Gold the Last Safe-Haven Standing?

Thu, 12 Mar 2026 00:00:00 EST

Gold seems to be the last safe-haven standing.

The 30-year yield has taken a similar trajectory, nudging up from 4.63 percent on Feb. 26 to 4.87 percent today.

This indicates tepid demand for U.S. debt.

Meanwhile, gold was the go-to safe-haven when news of the war hit the presses. The yellow metal surged above $5,400 an ounce before giving back most of those gains a few days into hostilities.

Why aren’t U.S. Treasuries catching a safe-haven bid?

I think there are two reasons. One is specific to the dynamics of this war, and the other is a more fundamental shift away from U.S. dollar assets.

Bonds and Oil

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Forest for the Trees founder and respected macroeconomic analyst Luke Groman told Kitco News the problems in the Treasury market can be traced to the outsized role oil is playing in the conflict with Iran. He said the sudden oil shock exposes the limitations of a global financial system built on dollars.

The fact that the world’s oil market runs on dollars means every country in the world depends on the U.S. currency. Global investors hold around $27 trillion in dollar-denominated assets, including U.S. Treasuries. Groman said that with oil prices surging, foreign nations are stuck between a rock and a hard place.

"They have to have energy, they have to have food, they have to have these commodities. And so, they will sell dollar assets starting with treasuries because they're the deepest and most liquid, to essentially buy oil."

Who Wants to Lend More Money to Uncle Sam?

The war is playing out on a larger game board. Treasuries have been struggling for months because a lot of countries simply don’t want any more exposure to U.S. fiscal malfeasance. https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/02/19/no-the-national-debt-problem-isnt-getting-better-004701";>The national debt has surged to $38.9 trillion. Meanwhile, the federal government has shown zero interest in reining in spending. On top of that, it is blowing through an additional $1 billion per day to fight the war.

Would you want to lend your drunk uncle, who has maxed out all his credit cards, more money?

If not, you understand how the rest of the world feels about Uncle Sam.

Many countries are also concerned about the https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/02/29/could-weaponization-of-the-dollar-as-a-foreign-policy-billy-club-accelerate-de-dollarization-003013";>weaponization of the U.S. currency. In https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/golds-geopolitical-comeback-how-physical-and-digital-gold-can-be-used-to-evade-us-sanctions/"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">an article published by the Atlantic Council, Kimberly Donovan and Maia Nikoladze point out that “central banks that are worried about getting sanctioned, want to protect themselves from a potential global financial crisis, or both have been stacking up gold at record levels.”

Make no mistake. This is a big problem for the U.S. because it depends on the global demand for dollars supported by its reserve status to underpin its massive government.

Groman pointed out a sobering reality.

"Iran doesn't have to beat the U.S. military, if it even could, which I doubt. All it has to beat is the bond market."

CPI Steady as Inflation Keeps Increasing

Thu, 12 Mar 2026 00:00:00 EST

The headline Consumer Price Index was steady in February as inflation continues to rise.

How could this be?

Because the CPI doesn’t measure “inflation” (https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/01/12/common-definition-of-inflation-you-hear-today-is-wrong-government-propaganda-002925";>as properly defined). It simply reflects the price movements of a basket of goods dreamed up by the BLS. Yes, this does give some indication of the trajectory of price inflation. However, price inflation is just one symptom of monetary inflation.

February CPI By the Numbers

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Based on the February CPI, one can argue that price inflation is holding steady. However, it remains stubbornly stuck above the Federal Reserve’s mythical 2 percent target.

According to the most recent https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm";>CPI data released by the BLS, prices rose 2.4 percent over the last 12 months. That was the consensus forecast and identical to the January reading. It was also the same rate the BLS reported in May 2025, the month after President Trump announced his aggressive tariff policy.

On a monthly basis, price inflation was a little hotter, rising by 0.3 percent.

Stripping out more volatile food and energy prices, core CPI prices cooled modestly, rising 0.2 percent month on month, after a 0.3 percent increase in January.

The annual core CPI held steady at 2.5 percent.

However, over the last six readings (with no October data), core CPI has increased by 0.3, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2, 0.3, and 0.2 percent, annualizing to 2.8 percent. Core CPI has been mired in this range for well over a year.

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Looking at the details, rent (a convoluted BLS formula that tells us little about the actual cost of rent in the real world) hit the lowest level (0.1 percent month-on-month) since January 2021. That drove cooling prices in the overall shelter category, which rose by 0.2 percent. Shelter has been one of the biggest CPI drivers over the last several months.

Even as shelter costs moderated (based on the convoluted CPI formula), food prices heated up, rising by 0.4 percent during the month.

Energy prices also nudged up (even before the U.S./Israel attack on Iran), with gasoline prices up 0.8 percent in February. Even with the boost to gas prices, they are still down over 5 percent compared to the same period in 2025.

Apparel prices jumped sharply. Analysts attributed this to tariff costs.

Service prices continue to run hot, rising by 0.3 percent last month after a 0.4 percent gain in January. On an annual basis, service prices have gone up 2.9 percent.

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As I mentioned, any time I report on government CPI data, it’s important to take this (and every) CPI report with a grain of salt. It is still factoring in https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/12/21/november-cpi-data-was-basically-just-made-up-004562";>November data that they basically just made up. And the constant https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/02/12/the-government-job-eraser-strikes-again-004689";>revisions to the labor data should also make you skeptical of government numbers.

You also need to remember that the CPI data understates price inflation by design. The https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/01/15/the-cpi-lie-price-inflation-is-even-worse-than-advertised-002930";>government revised the CPI formula in the 1990s so that it understated the actual rise in prices. Based on the formula used in the 1970s, CPI is closer to double the official numbers. So, if the BLS used the old formula, we’d be looking at CPI closer to 6 percent. And using an honest formula, it would probably be worse than that.

However, this government data drives decision-making, so we need to pay attention to what it tells us.

CPI May Be Steady, But Inflation Is Heating Up

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So, what is the data telling us?

CNBC summed it up like this:

“The annual rates were unchanged from January, indicating that inflation was holding above the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target but not getting worse.”

However, as I’ve already mentioned, CPI only measures price inflation, one symptom of monetary inflation (which is what economists and pundits used to mean when they talked about inflation).

If we look at the money supply, we find that inflation is heating up.

As the Federal Reserve revs up the money-creating machine even higher, the https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/12/12/inflation-alert-money-supply-increasing-at-fastest-rate-since-2022-004542";>money supply is already growing at the fastest rate since July 2022, in the early stages of the tightening cycle.

After peaking in April 2022, the money supply began to decline as the Fed hiked rates that year. The money supply bottomed in October 2023 and began increasing again. The money supply is now well above the pandemic peak.

And money creation has accelerated over the last several months.

https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/m2-money-supply-feb-26_.png"; width="700" height="384" class="mx-auto p-3" alt="" />

We also know inflationary pressures are increasing because the Federal Reserve is once again expanding its balance sheet.

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While you’ll never hear anybody at the Fed utter the term, https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/12/18/the-fed-restarted-qe-without-saying-it-004555";>the central bank relaunched quantitative easing in December. That means they are once again buying U.S. Treasuries using money created out of thin air.

Ultimately, this monetary inflation will work its way through the economy. It will either manifest in rising asset prices or rising consumer prices. Ultimately, it is devaluing your money (by design).

War and Inflation

Market reaction to the February CPI data was muted. Everybody is sitting on pins and needles waiting for surging oil prices to show up in the CPI data.

When they do, keep in mind that it’s not “inflation” as technically defined. It is a price shock.

That’s not to say it won’t impact the economy. That’s not to say higher energy costs won’t be passed on through the price of other products. That’s not to say it won’t cause consumer pain. It’s only to say that rising oil prices due to a war are fundamentally different than rising prices due to inflation. It’s important to disambiguate and untangle these phenomena, or you’ll never get a clear understanding of what’s happening in the economy and the financial system.

Because, make no mistake – the war will cause inflation – on top of the oil shock.

Analysts say Uncle Sam is spending around $1 billion every day to fight the war. I will remind you that the federal government is broke and is already running https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/02/12/trump-administration-still-running-budget-deficits-despite-surge-in-tariff-revenue-004687";>massive deficits month after month. The war will widen the budget gap and require more borrowing. The Fed is already running stealth QE to prop up the sagging Treasury market. As the U.S. is required to issue more debt, it is likely the Fed will have to step in even more aggressively because there is no significant demand for U.S. Treasuries, despite geopolitical uncertainty that would historically create a safe-haven bid.

The bottom line is more money-printing.

And that IS by definition inflation.

Why “Dead Investors” Beat the Market as Gold Surges Past $5,000

Thu, 12 Mar 2026 00:00:00 EST

In a recent episode of the Money Metals Midweek Memo, host Mike Maharrey discussed how investors can easily lose focus in fast-moving markets. He compared the experience to watching his kitten hunt lizards on the pool deck. The kitten begins stalking a target but quickly becomes distracted by birds or squirrels.

Maharrey suggested that investors often behave the same way when reacting to the constant stream of news headlines, particularly during periods of geopolitical tension such as the current war with Iran.

The pace of headlines has accelerated as the conflict unfolds, and markets have responded with significant volatility. Maharrey warned that reacting emotionally to every news update can lead to poor investment decisions. The modern information environment creates constant distractions that tempt investors to respond immediately instead of stepping back and evaluating the bigger picture.

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Why “Dead Investors” Often Perform Better

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Maharrey referenced research from firms including Dalbar, Fidelity, and Vanguard that has shown an unusual pattern. Some of the best-performing investment accounts belong to people who either https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/03/05/why-a-dead-person-would-probably-be-a-better-investor-than-you-004744";>forgot about them or have passed away. These investors did nothing and therefore avoided making emotional decisions that might damage their portfolios.

Financial psychologist Brad Klontz has argued that human behavior represents the biggest threat to portfolio performance. Investors tend to sell when they panic and buy when they become overly enthusiastic.

Barry Ritholtz of Ritholtz Wealth Management has explained that large market swings can trigger the same fight or flight response that once helped humans survive in dangerous environments. That instinct may have helped people escape predators on the savannah, but it can cause significant damage in financial markets where impulsive decisions often produce poor outcomes.

Maharrey emphasized that investors should not completely ignore their portfolios. Adjustments are sometimes necessary. However, reacting to every short-term headline or market movement can destroy both savings and peace of mind. Trying to time markets based on the nonstop stream of news updates rarely produces good results.

Gold Prices and the Iran War

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The ongoing war between the United States and Iran has contributed to significant volatility in precious metals markets. Shortly after the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran, https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/03/10/could-the-iran-war-give-a-long-term-boost-to-gold-bulls-004751";>gold briefly surged above $5,400 per ounce before retreating. Since the correction earlier in the year, gold has largely traded between about $5,000 and $5,200 per ounce with frequent swings of $50 to $100 as investors react to new developments.

Research from Metals Focus indicates that geopolitical conflicts often create an initial safe haven surge in gold prices. Historically, that effect tends to fade as investor fatigue develops and attention shifts back to broader economic fundamentals. Analysts expect continued volatility driven by war headlines, but do not expect the conflict alone to push gold to new all-time highs unless the situation escalates dramatically.

Factors That Could Support Gold After the War

Metals Focus believes that several longer-term dynamics related to the conflict could support gold demand even after the immediate safe-haven surge fades. One issue involves broader changes in the United States foreign policy. The Trump administration has pursued a more interventionist approach that has already resulted in the overthrow of two regimes within two months. Analysts believe this shift increases geopolitical uncertainty and may strain relationships with traditional allies since the recent attacks were carried out with limited coordination with European partners.

Another factor involves the potential for long-term instability in the Middle East. Regime change does not necessarily produce a more stable political environment. In Iran, leadership has reportedly shifted to Mohammad Kamani, the son of the former supreme leader, who has been described by some observers as even more hardline than his predecessor. Maharrey noted that historical examples such as Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, and Somalia demonstrate how foreign intervention often produces prolonged instability.

A third development involves the apparent decline of United States Treasury securities as a safe-haven asset. Historically, investors moved into Treasuries during times of uncertainty. During the current conflict, the yield on the 10-year Treasury has actually increased, indicating weak demand for government debt. Concerns about the rapidly growing national debt and fiscal deficits have reduced confidence in United States bonds. If Treasuries continue losing their safe-haven status, gold may increasingly fill that role.

War Spending and the Debt Problem

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Maharrey also argued that the conflict may intensify underlying economic forces that were already pushing precious metals higher. The United States is dealing with what he described as a debt black hole. National debt continues to rise while household borrowing and corporate debt have also reached record levels. Increasing delinquency rates suggest that many households are already struggling to keep up with their obligations.

The war itself adds another layer of financial pressure. Estimates suggest that the conflict is costing roughly $1 billion per day. Because the federal government does not have these funds available, the spending will be financed through additional borrowing. Maharrey warned that rising debt levels typically lead to increased money creation, which reduces the purchasing power of the dollar and https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/03/07/why-gold-keeps-beating-the-dollar-and-euro-004747";>strengthens the long-term case for gold and silver.

Geopolitical tensions may also accelerate the global shift toward de-dollarization. Some countries have grown wary of holding dollar-denominated assets because the United States increasingly uses financial systems as tools of foreign policy. If more nations diversify away from the dollar, demand for gold reserves could continue increasing.

Logistics Disruptions in the Global Gold Trade

The war has also disrupted the https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/03/09/iran-war-creates-disruptions-in-gold-market-004748";>logistics of the global gold market. With significant portions of Middle Eastern airspace closed and many flights cancelled, shipments of bullion have become difficult. Large quantities of gold are currently stranded in Dubai, which serves as one of the world’s most important refining and export hubs. In 2024, approximately 1,392 tons of gold flowed through the United Arab Emirates.

Mining companies often send partially refined doré bars containing between 60 percent and 90 percent gold to refineries in the UAE. These refineries process the metal into bullion bars or jewelry-grade gold before exporting it to Asian markets. Because transportation routes have been disrupted, some dealers in the UAE have reportedly sold gold at discounts of about $30 per ounce to avoid storage costs and logistical complications.

This bottleneck has created supply tightness in other regions. India, the world’s second-largest gold market after China, has experienced shipment delays as bullion remains stranded in the Middle East. Some refiners have reported difficulty securing doré supplies, while new supply contracts from other regions carry logistics costs that are 60 percent to 70 percent higher.

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Although the gold market is larger and less vulnerable to shortages than the silver market, prolonged disruptions could still create localized price spikes. Silver markets remain particularly sensitive because global demand has exceeded supply for five consecutive years.

Keeping the Big Picture in Mind

Maharrey concluded that investors should remain focused on long-term fundamentals rather than reacting emotionally to daily headlines. Wars may create temporary volatility in precious metals markets, but the larger drivers remain government debt, monetary policy, inflation, and declining confidence in traditional financial safe havens.

In his view, these factors continue to support the long-term case for owning physical gold and silver. While headlines about the war may dominate the news cycle, the broader economic environment still points toward ongoing currency depreciation and rising demand for assets that can preserve purchasing power.

Most Valuable Silver Eagles: Top 10 Rare Coins & Record Prices - Money Metals

Wed, 11 Mar 2026 00:00:00 EST

The US Mint introduced American Silver Eagle bullion coins in 1986, each containing one ounce of .999 fine silver. While most Silver Eagles trade close to their https://www.moneymetals.com/silver-price";>silver value, certain rare issues have become some of the most valuable Silver Eagles ever minted, selling for thousands of dollars to collectors.

For coin collectors, the most valuable Silver Eagles are proof coins. For silver investors, https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/silver/coins/american-silver-eagle";>bullion Silver Eagles grant access to one of the most liquid silver coins in the world.

We'll break down everything you need to know about the Silver Eagle, from its design to its top ten most valuable iterations. Read on to find out everything you need to know about this coin!

What Makes a Silver Eagle Valuable?

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Not every American Silver Eagle is worth thousands of dollars. Most trade close to https://www.moneymetals.com/bullion/what-coins-are-silver";>the value of their silver content. However, a handful of coins have become highly sought-after collector pieces due to a few key factors.

The first critical factor in determining a coin's value is mintage. Coins produced in smaller quantities tend to attract greater demand from collectors. https://www.pcgs.com/coinfacts/coin/1995-w-1-silver-eagle-dcam/9887"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">A famous example is the 1995-W Proof Silver Eagle, which had a mintage of just 30,125 coins and is now considered the key rarity of the series.

Condition and grading also play a key role. Coins graded by professional services such as PCGS or NGC can receive scores like MS70 or PR70, indicating a flawless example. Because perfect coins are rare, these top-graded specimens often command dramatically higher prices.

Special finishes and varieties can increase value as well. Reverse proof coins, enhanced and uncirculated coins, and unique varieties like the 2008-W “Reverse of 2007” Silver Eagle stand out from https://www.moneymetals.com/bullion";>standard bullion issues.

Finally, historical significance and collector demand influence pricing. Anniversary releases, first-year designs, and limited commemorative issues often generate excitement among collectors, helping certain Silver Eagles rise far above the value of their one ounce of silver.

Top 10 Most Valuable Silver Eagles

The top 10 most valuable silver eagles tend to be proof coins, often graded MS70 or PR70.

Silver Eagle Coin	Type	Mintage	Estimated High Value	Key Reason for Value
1995-W Proof Silver Eagle (PR70DCAM)	Proof	30,125	$20,000+	Key rarity from the 10th Anniversary Set; widely considered the most valuable Silver Eagle.
1999-W Proof Silver Eagle (MS70)	Proof	Unknown (low surviving population in MS70)	$13,000+	Extremely scarce perfect-grade examples from an early proof issue.
2020-W V75 Privy Proof Silver Eagle	Proof	75,000	$1,000–$3,000+	Special WWII 75th anniversary privy mark; high collector demand.
2008-W	Burnished / Variety	~47,000	$3,000+	Major design variety featuring a rounded “U” in “United.”
1994 Proof Silver Eagle (PR70)	Proof	372,168	$11,000+	Low mint-direct sales and extremely rare in PR70 condition.
1996 Silver Eagle	Bullion	3.6 million	$5,000+ (MS70)	Lowest mintage regular bullion strike in the series.
2019-S Enhanced Reverse Proof Silver Eagle	Enhanced Reverse Proof	30,000	$2,000–$5,000+	Highly sought modern rarity with unique enhanced finish.
2011-P Reverse Proof Silver Eagle	Reverse Proof	~100,000	$1,000+	Issued only in the 25th Anniversary Set.
2013-W Enhanced Uncirculated Silver Eagle	Enhanced Uncirculated	235,689	$500–$1,500+	Distinct finish combining proof and burnished elements.
2021-W Type 2 Proof Silver Eagle	Proof	Limited early release	$400–$1,000+	First year of the new reverse design by Emily Damstra.

1995-W Proof Silver Eagle (PR70DCAM)

Issued only as part of the American Eagle 10th Anniversary Set, the 1995-W Proof Silver Eagle has a tiny mintage of just 30,125 coins. Because collectors had to purchase the entire anniversary set to obtain one, demand has remained extremely strong, and perfect PR70 examples regularly sell for more than $20,000.

1999-W Proof Silver Eagle (MS70)

The 1999-W Proof Silver Eagle is not particularly rare in terms of mintage, but flawless MS70 examples are extremely scarce. Perfectly preserved coins from this early proof issue have sold for over $13,000 due to their rarity in top condition.

2020-W V75 Privy Proof Silver Eagle

Released to commemorate the 75th anniversary of the end of World War II, this coin features a special “V75” privy mark on the obverse. With a mintage of only 75,000 and strong historical appeal, the coin quickly became one of the most sought-after modern Silver Eagles.

2008-W “Reverse of 2007” Burnished Silver Eagle

This notable variety was created when the US Mint accidentally used the previous year's reverse design on certain burnished coins. The distinctive rounded “U” in “United” helps identify the variety, making it a highly collectible error with relatively low surviving numbers.

1994 Proof Silver Eagle (PR70)

While the 1994 Proof Silver Eagle was produced in moderate numbers, relatively few coins survived in perfect PR70 condition. Because of this scarcity in top grades, pristine examples can command prices well above $10,000.

1996 Silver Eagle

The 1996 Silver Eagle has the lowest bullion mintage in the entire series, with just over 3.6 million coins produced. High-grade examples, especially those graded MS70, are highly desirable among collectors completing full Silver Eagle sets.

2019-S Enhanced Reverse Proof Silver Eagle

With a mintage of just 30,000 coins, the 2019-S Enhanced Reverse Proof Silver Eagle is one of the rarest modern issues in the series. Its unique multi-finish design and extremely limited release caused the coin to sell out almost instantly and become a major modern collectible.

2011-P Reverse Proof Silver Eagle

This coin was included in the popular 25th Anniversary American Silver Eagle set released by the US Mint. Its distinctive reverse proof finish and limited production make it a standout collectible from the modern era.

2013-W Enhanced Uncirculated Silver Eagle

The 2013-W Enhanced Uncirculated Silver Eagle was issued as part of the West Point two-coin set celebrating the mint's history. Its special finish combines multiple polishing techniques, giving the coin a distinctive appearance that appeals to collectors.

2021-W Type 2 Proof Silver Eagle

The 2021-W Type 2 Proof Silver Eagle marked the debut of the new reverse https://www.usmint.gov/learn/artists/aip-emily-damstra"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">design created by artist Emily Damstra. As the first year of the updated design, these coins carry added historical significance for collectors.

Design Specifications

Each American Silver Eagle contains exactly one troy ounce of .999 https://www.moneymetals.com/investment/what-is-fine-silver";>fine silver. The diameter of the coin is 1.598 inches and the edge is reeded.

Obverse Design: The Walking Liberty

The image was designed by Adolph A. Weinman, a 19th Century sculptor and engraver. The Walking Liberty is a depiction of Lady Liberty holding the flag, as well as branches of laurel and oak. It is a powerful image with heavy symbolic meaning.

There is also text engraved on the obverse. The coin reads "Liberty" and "In God We Trust" along with the date of production.
Reverse Design: The American Eagle

The image on the reverse side of this coin was designed by John Mercanti. It is a dynamic and striking image of our national eagle carrying olive branches and arrows. There are thirteen stars engraved along the edges of the coin, symbolizing the original thirteen states.

The text on the reverse includes "One Dollar," "United States of America," "E Pluribus Unum" and "1 oz Fine Silver."

The Present and Future of American Silver Eagle Coins

Today, these coins are important to investors and numismatic collectors alike. Collectors may purchase proof coins directly through the US Mint. Bullion strike coins and proof coins with prior dates are sold by dealers exclusively.

Precious metals dealers throughout the US and around the world will carry the American Eagles. Large, national dealers, such as Money Metals Exchange will publish both buy and sell prices for the coins live. The coins can be purchased or sold in virtually any quantity with ease.

American Silver Eagle coins are a great choice for any investor, regardless of whether you are an absolute beginner or a seasoned expert. These coins are recognized and sought after all around the world. That means they are liquid and will command higher prices when it is time for resale.

Silver is extraordinarily useful as an industrial metal with applications ranging from medical equipment to technology and solar power. Demand is set to rise, while new, high-grade ore deposits are increasingly difficult to find.

And, unlike silver, the US dollar's future looks grim. Debt and deficits continue to rise as the Federal government remains completely unable to exercise spending restraint.

Whether it is demand from industry or demand from investors worried about the fate of the dollar, Silver Eagles will be increasingly sought after in the years ahead.

Main Types of American Silver Eagles

American Silver Eagles come in bullion and proof forms. https://www.moneymetals.com/bullion/what-is-bullion";>Bullion strike coins are produced in much larger quantities and are more suitable for investment, while proof coins are coveted by collectors. What is the difference?

Bullion Silver Eagles

Bullion American Eagle coins don't come with mint marks. They are struck once in the minting press and do not carry the mirror finish of the https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/silver/coins/proof-american-silver-eagle";>proof variety. Investors prefer them for the considerably lower cost of purchase.

Proof Silver Eagles

Proof American Eagle coins are produced in limited quantities and are much more valuable because they must be struck twice (or more) and require specially made and polished dies. They carry a mint mark designating where the coins were made. The mirror finish and visibility of fine detail make them easy to identify.

There are three kinds of mint marks you could find on an American Silver Eagle Proof coin, depending on the year the coin was made. Each mint mark is a small letter printed on the reverse.

The possible options are:

S, denoting that the coin was made in San Francisco from 1986 to 1992
P for Philadelphia, where the minting took place between 1993 and 2000
W for West Point, New York; These coins were made between 2001 and the present day

Anniversary coins

Rare anniversary coins are one of the most important traditions of the US Mint. They are loved by serious collectors and amateurs alike.

The US Mint celebrated the tenth production anniversary of these coins in 1996. Commemorative coins were minted for the occasion. Some were silver-proof coins with a P mint mark. Others included the https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/gold/coins/proof-american-gold-eagle";>American Eagle Gold proof coins with weights ranging from 0.1 oz to 1 oz.

https://www.moneymetals.com/2006-20th-anniversary-silver-eagle-3-coin-set/2338";>The 20-year anniversary was held in 2006. Proof coins with a W mint mark were produced for the occasion. The US Mint issued "reverse proof" silver Eagles for the first time. These handsome coins feature a frosted "field" or background, with the walking Lady Liberty polished in the foreground.

Collectors could also go for the 25th Anniversary Set from 2011. There were only 100,000 sets sold for the occasions. Each of them came with five beautiful coins. Now 30th-anniversary coins are available too.

History of the Silver American Coin

The gold and silver American Eagle coin program had its roots in the honest money movement. When Franklin Roosevelt's executive order declaring private ownership of gold and silver bullion as unlawful was finally rescinded in 1971, conservatives began pushing for the US Mint to reintroduce precious metal coins suitable for investment.

The effort took years but eventually found success. The first American Eagles were issued in both gold and silver in 1986. The US Mint produced 5.3 million Silver Eagles in the first year. Production ranged between 5 - 7 million per year for most of the first decade. These https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/gold/coins/united-states-mint-gold";>US mint coins for sale, have become the most popular coin in the world.

The turn of the century brought a change in the production of American Silver Eagle coins. The quantity produced began moving consistently upward. Demand spiked following the 2008 financial crisis and peaked with the Mint issuing 47,000,000 coins in 2015.

The US may have abandoned gold and silver backing for the dollar, but at least investors can use the deep and liquid market for US bullion coins to protect themselves from the dollar's perpetual decline.

Silver Eagle Mintage

Year	Bullion	Proof	Uncirculated
1986	5,393,005	1,446,778
1987	11,442,335	904,732
1988	5,004,646	557,370
1989	5,203,327	617,694
1990	5,840,110	695,510
1991	7,191,066	511,924
1992	5,540,068	498,543
1993	6,763,762	405,913*
1994	4,227,319	372,168
1995	4,672,051	407,822
1995-W		30,125*
1996	3,603,386	498,293
1997	4,295,004	440,315*
1998	4,847,549	450,728
1999	7,408,640	549,330
2000	9,239,132	600,743
2001	9,001,711	746,398
2002	10,539,026	647,342
2003	8,495,008	747,831
2004	8,882,754	801,602
2005	8,891,025	816,663
2006	10,676,522	1,092,477*	466,573*
2006-P Rev Pr		248,875*
2007	9,028,036	821,759	621,333*
2008	20,583,000	700,979	533,757*
2009	30,459,000	0*	0*
2010	34,764,500	849,861	0*
2011	40,020,000	947,355*	409,766*
2011-S			99,882*
2011-P Rev Pr		99,882*
2012	33,742,500	877,731*	226,120*
2012-S		281,792*
2012-S Rev Pr		224,935*
2013	42,675,000	934,331	221,981
2013-W		235,689
2013- W Rev Pr		235,689
2014	44,006,000	99,757	253,169
2015	47,000,000	707,518*	223,879*
2016	37,701,500
2017	18,065,500

Final Word

Silver Eagle coins have something for everyone. Coin collectors can have a great time searching for the most valuable Silver Eagles in the proof market.

https://www.moneymetals.com/investment/investing-in-silver";>Silver investors can take advantage of the https://www.moneymetals.com/guides/silver-coin-values";>value of silver coins like the American Silver Eagle. The design is widely considered to be among the most beautiful in the world. No other bullion coin is as popular or widely traded.

These coins are a wise purchase, whether as a beautiful gift or as an addition to your holding of tangible assets. Search our inventory to find the best Silver Eagle for your silver stack!

Invest Like a Dead Man!

Wed, 11 Mar 2026 00:00:00 EST

Maybe you should invest like a dead man.

Sounds crazy, right? But studies have shown accounts belonging to dead people often outperform those that are actively managed.

In this episode of the Midweek Memo podcast, host Mike Maharrey makes sense out of this phenomenon and explains why it's particularly valuable to understand during a war. He also highlights how the ongoing conflict with Iran is causing logistical disruptions to the precious metals markets, and speculates how the war could impact gold and silver prices down the road.

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Mike opens the show with a story about his kitten.

"He loves to go out on our pool deck and hunt. He’s actually caught a few lizards, so he has some skills, but his hunting success suffers from a lack of focus. He’ll see a lizard, start stalking it, and then a bird will grab his attention. As he tracks the bird, a squirrel will start chattering and sidetrack him yet again. Oh, look, there’s a lizard! On and on it goes.

"Sometimes I feel like my kitten when I’m watching the news headlines. It’s always fast and furious, and it seems faster and furiouser since. As prices whipsaw, it’s hard not to get caught up in emotion. That’s why dead people make better investors."

Mike concedes that saying dead people make good investors sounds a little kooky. But it actually makes sense when you think about it.

"When I was a kid, I remember my dad trying to teach me not to act rashly. To illustrate his point, he told me, 'Don’t just do something! stand there!' Of course, he was flipping the script on, 'Don’t just stand there! Do something! His point being sometimes you need to pause and think before you act. Turns out this might be a pretty good investment strategy."

Mike notes that studies by Dalbar, Fidelity, and Vanguard reveal that dead people tend to be better investors than the living.

"Now, I’m not suggesting suicide here. But you can adopt the strategy a dead person would employ – doing absolutely nothing Because, obviously, that’s all a dead person can do."

Mike points out that based on the abovementioned research, the best investors aren’t necessarily the smartest people. They don’t have degrees in finance. They aren’t even the most experienced. They’re dead. Or perhaps they’re still walking among us, but they forgot they had an investment account.

"How does this make sense? One of the key points here is that dead people don’t get caught up in their feelz."

Humans tend to make quick decisions based on emotions. This serves people well when a lion is attacking. It's not such a good tendency when making investment decisions. It's generally better to take a measured approach, pausing to consider all the various dynamics in play.

"Of course, I don’t really mean you should completely ignore your portfolio. That would be foolish. You do need to adjust from time to time. And there are times to buy and a time to sell. If you watch the markets at all, you know that every bit of news seems to drive some kind of move. But almost all of them are short-lived. So, you don’t want to react to every new post that pops up on X. Trying to time the markets based on what has become a 30-second news cycle will wreck your savings and your sanity."

Mike emphasizes that you don't want to ignore headlines completely. Just put them in a broader context.

"When you see a price swing, ask yourself, 'Did anything just happen signaling a change in the fundamentals?' If the answer is yes, well, it might be time to make a move. But if the answer is no, you probably want to stand pat.

"You don't have to be dead to be a good investor. You don't even need to be dead inside. But you do need to keep your emotions in check, stay focused on the fundamentals, and don't react to every single news headline or price move."

Mike says he thinks this is particularly important with a war raging.

"There are so many headlines to parse through, and a lot of it is propaganda from both sides. The other day, oil sold off because Trump implied the war was almost over. Except it isn’t. Probably. I mean, who knows, right? And as I discussed last week, war itself doesn’t tend to have much of a long-term impact on gold. Of course, that doesn’t mean it has no impact. And I came across some interesting analysis from Metals Focus indicating that this war may actually have some longer-lasting ramifications."

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Mike breaks down the analysis, highlighting three factors Metals Focus identifies as reasons the war may impact precious metals markets in the long term.

Broader U.S. foreign policy implications
The potential for long-term Middle Eastern instability
Treasuries have failed as a safe haven

"On top of those things, I would add that the war will likely supercharge some of the factors that were already driving gold and silver higher."

Mike specifically mentioned the https://www.moneymetals.com/podcasts/2025/11/12/the-debt-black-hole-004473";>massive Debt Black Hole, inflation concerns, and ongoing https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/03/11/de-dollarization-gold-and-a-shift-to-a-multipolar-world-003898";>de-dollarization.

Mike sums it up this way.

"War news is relevant, but you need to keep your eyes on the other balls that are in the air. Don’t get swept up in the emotion of price swings because Trump said something or CNN reports something. The war itself isn’t going to move the markets. Other things will – things in place before the war, and some exacerbated by the conflict. Not many of those things are bearish for gold, at least not in my view."

Mike also notes that the war is already creating logistical disruptions to the gold and silver markets. With airspace closed, a lot of gold is stuck in Dubai. The UAE serves as an important refining and exporting hub.

"The ongoing war is hampering transporters, stranding tons of gold in the Middle Eastern country. Rather than holding on to it and paying storage fees, some dealers are opting to sell at discounts approaching $30 an ounce."

Meanwhile, with metal bottled up in the Middle East, other markets are starting to feel a supply squeeze, India in particular. While there is currently enough gold and silver to meet Indian demand, that could quickly change if the war lingers.

"We saw how disruptions in the flow of metal can impact markets when tariff worries sent tonnes of silver from London to New York last spring. When Indian demand peaked in the fall, it set off https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/12/29/silver-squeeze-20-drives-price-over-80-004576";>a significant silver squeeze that continues to ripple through the market.

"While the gold supply isn’t as tight as silver (https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/02/12/silver-market-expected-to-run-sixth-straight-supply-deficit-this-year-004686";>Silver demand has outstripped supply for five straight years), locking up tonnes of gold in the Middle East and the squeeze on refining capacity may well cause shortages in some markets, leading to local price spikes. The longer the war drags on, the higher the possibility of more serious disruptions. At best, we should probably expect elevated price volatility."

Mike says that no matter what happens during the war, one thing is certain. The U.S. government will continue to devalue your money. That's why you want to preserve your wealth with real money -- gold and silver. Mike ends the show with a call to action. Call 800-800-1865 and talk with a Money Metals precious metals specialist today!

Articles Mentioned During the Show

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/03/03/how-has-war-impacted-the-gold-price-in-the-modern-era-004733";>How Has War Impacted the Gold Price in the Modern Era?

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/03/05/household-debt-rose-to-a-new-record-high-in-q4-2025-004742";>Household Debt Rose to a New Record High in Q4 2025

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/02/26/could-the-ai-bubble-pop-and-cause-a-credit-crisis-004722";>Could the AI Bubble Pop and Cause a Credit Crisis?