Precious Metals News & Analysis - Gold News, Silver News from Money Metals Exchange

No Matter How You Slice the Data, It Keeps Coming Up Inflation

Tue, 12 May 2026 00:00:00 EST

No matter how you slice the data, it keeps coming up inflation.

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The April CPI data did nothing to allay fears of renewed inflationary pressure as rising energy prices continued to impact the economy.

On a monthly basis, the CPI rose 0.6 percent, adding to the 0.9 percent rise in prices in March. That drove the annual CPI to 3.8 percent, the highest level since May 2023.

The monthly increase was as forecast, with the annual CPI coming in just above expectations.

Unsurprisingly, spiking energy costs as the Iran war drags on had a significant impact on the overall CPI, contributing about 40 percent to the overall jump. The energy index rose 3.8 percent last month, driven by a 5.4 percent increase in gasoline prices. Gasoline is up 28.4 percent from one year ago.

More concerning is that we’re starting to see prices tick up in other categories. Core CPI, stripping out more volatile food and energy costs, rose 0.4 percent in April, pushing annual core CPI to 2.8 percent.

It’s important to point out that core CPI remains above the Fed’s stated 2 percent target and has been mired in this range for well over a year. This indicates that recent price inflation isn’t merely reflecting an oil shock. There is underlying inflationary pressure in the system (more on that in a moment).

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Breaking down the data, we find food prices rose 0.5 percent in April, and the shelter index spiked by 0.6 percent. Service price (less energy services) also rose 0.5 percent.

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As I mentioned, any time I report on government CPI data, it’s important to take this (and every) CPI report with a grain of salt. It is still factoring in https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/12/21/november-cpi-data-was-basically-just-made-up-004562";>November data that they basically just made up. And the constant https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/02/12/the-government-job-eraser-strikes-again-004689";>revisions to the labor data should also make you skeptical of government numbers.

You also need to remember that the CPI data understates price inflation by design. The https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/01/15/the-cpi-lie-price-inflation-is-even-worse-than-advertised-002930";>government revised the CPI formula in the 1990s so that it understated the actual rise in prices. Based on the formula used in the 1970s, CPI is closer to double the official numbers. So, if the BLS used the old formula, we’d be looking at CPI closer to 6 percent. And using an honest formula, it would probably be worse than that.

However, this government data drives decision-making, so we need to pay attention to what it tells us.

The Underlying Inflation Story

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The CPI doesn’t tell the full inflation story. It simply reflects the price movements of a basket of goods made up out of thin air by the number crunchers at the BLS. Yes, this does give some indication of the trajectory of price inflation. However, it tells us little to nothing about the inflation trajectory https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/01/12/common-definition-of-inflation-you-hear-today-is-wrong-government-propaganda-002925";>as economists have historically defined it.

Inflation is not “rising prices.” Increasing consumer prices are one symptom of inflation, defined as an increase in the supply of money and credit. Rising consumer prices are a symptom of this monetary inflation.

Other factors – such as oil shocks – also raise a lot of prices. We see that in the current CPI data. However, this is fundamentally different from monetary inflation, which is only caused by one thing – government/central bank money creation.

And if we look at the money supply, we find that inflation (properly defined) is heating up, with or without an oil shock.

In fact, if we use the economic definition of inflation as an increase in the money supply, the inflation rate is much higher – double the CPI.

Based on https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">the Fed’s M2 data, the money supply increased from $21.61 trillion in February 2025 to $22.67 trillion in February 2026, a 4.9 percent increase.

In other words, we have an actual inflation rate of nearly 5 percent.

The M2 money supply increased by another $57 billion in March.

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We also know inflationary pressures are increasing because the Federal Reserve is once again expanding its balance sheet.

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While you’ll never hear anybody at the Fed utter the term, https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/12/18/the-fed-restarted-qe-without-saying-it-004555";>the central bank relaunched quantitative easing in December. That means they are once again buying U.S. Treasuries using money created out of thin air.

Ultimately, this monetary inflation will work its way through the economy. It will either manifest in rising asset prices or rising consumer prices. Ultimately, it is devaluing your money (by design).

If the U.S. and Iran can negotiate a permanent end to hostilities, this oil shock will quickly pass. The pundits and prognosticators will claim the inflation problem is gone. It won’t be. As long as the government keeps creating money, the inflation problem will persist.

Plan accordingly.

De-Dollarization: Has the End of History Ended?

Tue, 12 May 2026 00:00:00 EST

Are we in the early stages of a fundamental shift in global monetary history?

Analysts at Deutsche Bank Research Institute think we are. They see a future where the dollar plays a much smaller role.

As the USSR’s empire crumbled, Francis Fukuyama proclaimed that humanity had reached “the end of history.” The U.S. was the unchallenged global hegemon with unprecedented military and economic power. Central banks sold gold and accumulated dollars.

Things have changed in recent years, and there has been an undeniable https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/03/11/de-dollarization-gold-and-a-shift-to-a-multipolar-world-003898";>de-dollarization trend.

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Even before Russia invaded Ukraine, many central banks were accumulating gold. With the U.S. weaponization of the dollar after the Russian invasion, the pace accelerated.

https://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/IE-PROD/PDFVIEWER.calias"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">In a detailed research report, Deutsche Bank analysts Mallika Sachdeva and Michael Hsueh argue that “the end of history has come to an end.”

“The world is back in a superpower struggle; the U.S. is retreating from free trade, alliances, and security provision; the Great Economic Moderation is behind us; and the dollar banking system has been weaponized. The ‘return of history’ has big implications for gold and the dollar.”

Is De-Dollarization Real?

Some people claim the de-dollarization trend his overhyped, but the data is hard to ignore. The share of dollars in global central bank reserves has dropped sharply from around 60 percent to around 40 percent today. Meanwhile, the share of gold has doubled in the last four years to around 30 percent.

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“Before the 1990s, gold had consistently been a larger share of central bank reserves than the fiat dollar. But by the end of the 1990s, the dollar was over four times the share of gold. This seems to now be going in reverse, with gold clawing back its share rapidly. What happened in the 1990s and why is this unwinding today? How far can it go and to what end?”

De-dollarization skeptics counter that the rapid rise in the share of gold reserves is purely a function of rising prices. But Sachdeva and Hsueh argue that the rise in gold price is at least partly a function of https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/05/05/central-banks-added-more-gold-in-march-but-big-sales-sent-net-purchases-negative-004891";>central bank gold buying.

“There is a genuine volume driver underlying this: central bank purchases have arguably themselves been behind significant price momentum. There is indeed a close relationship between official purchases and sales of gold and the change in the real gold price. Volume and prices are thus endogenously related and are both doing the legwork of gold's rising share.”

Virtually all the central bank gold buying has come from emerging markets. Since 2008, emerging market central banks have gobbled up 225 million ounces of gold. Sachdeva and Hsueh expect the trend to continue, noting that even with the recent pace of purchases, EM central banks still hold half the amount of gold as developed market banks.

The End of History

Sachdeva and Hsueh believe that the decline of gold and the rise of the dollar weren’t solely due to the end of Bretton Woods. They think it was driven more by geopolitical shifts.

“It was not a transition in the monetary system - which had occurred two decades prior - but a shift in the geopolitical environment that changed the role of gold.”

With the USSR gone, the U.S. was not only the biggest kid on the block; it was virtually the only kid in the neighborhood with any muscle at all.

“The U.S. thus became an uncontested hegemon in what appeared to be a geopolitically unipolar world. Japan, which had been the U.S.'s closest economic competitor, was well within the US security and dollar system, and China was still a decade from joining the WTO.”

In this environment, everybody wanted dollars. EM central bank dollar reserves went parabolic around 2000.

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“In sum, the biggest driver of gold's decline in global reserves in the 1990s was the rise of EM FX reserves accumulated in USD. This was in turn a function of dramatic globalization, in a US-driven neo-liberal unipolar order, amidst sound and improving economic fundamentals in the U.S.”

De-Dollarization Ramifications

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Things have changed. Many countries are now wary of holding dollars. They don’t want to be subject to U.S. foreign policy bullying, and they are concerned about America’s fiscal malfeasance. The 2008 financial crisis was a canary in a coal mine. Aggressive sanctioning of Russia after it invaded Ukraine may have been the final straw.

Sachdeva and Hsueh point out several trend reversals from the 90s that seem to be driving de-dollarization.

The U.S. is stepping back from free trade and fracturing traditional alliances.
The relationship between the U.S. and emerging markets is reversing. In the past, the U.S. outsourced manufacturing while EM countries outsourced security and savings. Today, the U.S. is onshoring more critical manufacturing, while many EM regions like Asia and the Gulf will be reconsidering their need for strategic autonomy in areas like energy and defense.
The U.S. has lost control of its inflation dragon.
The https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/02/29/could-weaponization-of-the-dollar-as-a-foreign-policy-billy-club-accelerate-de-dollarization-003013";>weaponization of the dollar.

“The end of history has itself come to an end, with significant implications for gold and the dollar, which are becoming increasingly apparent.”

This is a fancy way of saying that if de-dollarization and EM gold accumulation continue, it could drive the gold price even higher. According to Sachdeva and Hsueh, for every 1 million ounces of gold purchased by central banks, the price rises by 1 percent.

Sachdeva and Hsueh ran four different scenarios with varying levels of de-dollarization and central bank gold buying. They determined that “even in an environment where EM FX reserves decline to $5 trillion, gold prices could still rise to $8,000 over the next five years, if EM countries all target a 40 percent gold share."

It could also signal a fundamental shift in the global monetary order.

“In sum, while EM central bank diversification into gold likely has much to do with preserving the value and accessibility of their foreign savings in a changing geopolitical climate, it may also - in the long run - play a role in anchoring a monetary order that builds independence from the dollar. There is, of course, a very long way to go. EM central banks as a whole still only hold half the physical gold of advanced economy central banks. But there is a world where gold returns to the center of a future monetary system with different leaders.”

As I’ve mentioned over and over, even a modest de-dollarization spells big trouble for the U.S. economy.

Since the global financial system runs on dollars, the world needs a lot of them, and the United States depends on this global demand to underpin its bloated government. The only reason the U.S. can borrow, spend, and run massive budget deficits to the extent that it does is the dollar’s role as the world reserve currency. It creates a built-in global demand for dollars and dollar-denominated assets. This absorbs the Federal Reserve’s money creation and helps maintain dollar strength despite the Federal Reserve’s inflationary policies.

But what happens if that demand drops? What happens if BRICS nations and other countries don't need as many dollars?

A de-dollarization of the world economy would cause a dollar glut. The value of the U.S. currency would further depreciate. At the extreme, global de-dollarization could spark a currency crisis. You and I would feel the impact through more price inflation, eating away at the purchasing power of the dollar. In the worst-case scenario, it could lead to hyperinflation.

What is Silver Bullion? Definition, Types, and Investment Basics - Money Metals

Mon, 11 May 2026 00:00:00 EST

What is silver bullion? The answer is straightforward: silver bullion is physical silver valued primarily for its weight and purity. Investors buy these assets for their metal purity, not for their rarity or design.

In practice, though, the definition may not always be so clear. There are plenty of products marketed as “silver” that carry hefty premiums. Often, these are tied to collectibility, while others track the market price of silver much more closely.

We'll cut through that confusion in this guide. You will learn what qualifies as silver bullion, what does not, and how to compare different forms like bars, rounds, and coins. This guide also covers practical insights that investors use to avoid common mistakes.

What is Silver Bullion?

Silver bullion is physical silver valued primarily for its weight and purity. Its value comes from its silver purity and weight, setting it apart from other silver assets.

Bullion products must meet a high purity standard; generally, that is .999 fine silver, which means it is 99.9% pure. Some products surpass that standard, but the global standard is .999. This purity ensures higher liquidity when buying or selling.

Silver bullion comes in several forms:

Silver bars
Silver bullion coins
Silver rounds

Silver bars are often the most cost-efficient option for large bullion purchases. Silver bullion coins are legal tender, 99.9% silver items minted by sovereign government mints. One of the most famous examples is the American Silver Eagle.

Finally, there are silver rounds. These items resemble coins, but come from private mints, rather than sovereign government mints. Despite their different origins, however, these products also qualify as silver bullion.

The key distinction is simple but crucial: bullion qualifications do not come from collectibility. Some coins may carry small premiums for their global recognition or demand, but true bullion items are primarily priced according to their metal content. That makes them fundamentally different from numismatic coins, where value is often driven more by scarcity than weight.

Silver bullion is also a pricing category. An item is considered bullion if it trades close to the silver spot price, with only modest premiums for manufacturing or distribution. Such a perspective can help investors focus on accumulating physical silver by the ounce, without overpaying for unnecessary extras.

What Does NOT Count as Silver Bullion?

There are several products that contain silver but that do not count as silver bullion. The first thing to distinguish from bullion is numismatic/collector coins.

Numismatic coins may have silver, though not necessarily. These are coins that derive their value from their scarcity and historical significance, which make them highly desirable for collectors. Though they often have precious metal content, that content is rarely .999 fine. Moreover, it is not always silver; copper and gold coins can also have a great deal of numismatic value.

The biggest difference between numismatic and bullion is the source of their value. While precious metal content plays some part in a numismatic coin's value, its value primarily comes from the collector market.

Sterling silver is another item that does not qualify as silver bullion. Unlike bullion, which is at least 99.9% pure, sterling silver is only 92.5% pure.

Sterling silver most often finds its use in jewelry and collectible artwork. It does provide exposure to the spot price of silver, but often comes with significant premiums that it rarely retains.

Junk silver also does not qualify as bullion. Junk silver coins contain 90% silver content and a fraction of an ounce of silver. While these, too, provide exposure to the silver spot price, they are not bullion. Nevertheless, they can be a worthwhile investment for silver investors.

Types of Silver Bullion

Silver bullion is available in several forms, each designed to meet different investor needs. While all bullion products derive value from their silver content, the form you choose can affect the cost, liquidity, and flexibility of your investment.

Type	Form	Typical Premium	Liquidity	Best Use Case
Silver Bars	Rectangular	Lowest	Moderate	Bulk investing, lowest cost per ounce
Silver Rounds	Coin-shaped (private mint)	Low–Medium	High	Flexible stacking, easy resale
Government Coins	Legal tender coins	Highest	Very High	Maximum recognition and trust

Silver Bars

Silver bars are the most straightforward form of bullion. They range in size from small one-ounce bars to large 1,000-ounce industrial bars. Because they are simple to produce, bars typically carry the lowest premiums over the silver spot price.

This makes them especially attractive for investors focused on accumulating larger quantities of silver at the lowest possible cost per ounce. However, larger bars can be less flexible when it comes time to sell.

Silver Rounds

Silver rounds are privately minted and shaped like coins, but they do not have legal tender status. Rounds often have slightly higher premiums than bars, but lower premiums than government-issued coins.

Many investors prefer silver rounds because they offer a balance between affordability and liquidity. They also have recognizable designs that make them favorites among silver stackers.

Government-Minted Coins

Government-minted bullion coins, https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/silver/coins/american-silver-eagle";>like the American Silver Eagle or Canadian Maple Leaf, are among the most widely recognized forms of silver bullion. These coins carry a face value and legal tender status. However, their face value is largely symbolic; their intrinsic value is significantly higher than their face value.

These coins have a lot of credibility and global recognition as a product of the U.S. Mint. Because of this, they typically command higher premiums than bars or rounds. Investors often trade coins for their higher liquidity, government backing, and enhanced security features.

Typical Silver Bullion Premiums

While the spot price sets the baseline, real-world silver bullion purchases always include a premium and those premiums vary more than many new investors expect.

In normal market conditions, typical silver bullion premiums fall into fairly consistent ranges:

Silver Bars: ~3% to 10% over spot
Silver Rounds: ~5% to 15% over spot
Government Coins (e.g., Silver Eagles): ~10% to 25%+ over spot

These differences are not arbitrary. Bars carry the lowest premiums because they are cheaper to produce at scale. Rounds fall in the middle, offering a balance between cost and recognizability. Government-issued coins command the highest premiums due to minting costs, legal tender status, and strong global demand.

During periods of heavy buying, such as financial crises or supply disruptions, these premiums can rise sharply. It is not uncommon to see Silver Eagle premiums double or more when demand overwhelms available supply.

For investors, the takeaway is simple: the form of silver bullion you choose directly impacts your total cost per ounce. Watching both spot prices and premium levels is essential to getting the best overall value.

How Silver Bullion Is Priced

Several factors play into the price of a silver product. However, https://www.moneymetals.com/silver-price";>the price of all silver bullion products starts with the spot price.

The spot price is the current market value for a single ounce of silver, which is traded on global exchanges. This price fluctuates constantly based on a number of factors. Including:

interest rates
currency strength
industrial demand
investor sentiment.

However, physical silver bullion never sells exactly at the spot price. Instead, buyers pay a premium, which is an additional cost above spot. Premiums cover several additional costs, such as manufacturing, distribution costs, and credit card fees. Smaller products generally have higher premiums per ounce than larger precious metal assets.

Other factors can play a role in determining premiums. The first of these is supply and demand.

Economic uncertainty or financial instability can cause premiums to rise sharply to meet the increased retail demand. That's not because silver itself suddenly becomes more valuable.

Rather, it occurs because these periods of demand cause the physical supply to tighten. Mints can only produce a limited number of coins and bars. When that happens, demand overwhelms production capacity, and that causes premiums to rise.

These spikes are often most visible during major market disruptions. Times of economic crisis often prompt investors to rush to tangible assets. When that happens, the demand for gold and silver gets ahead of refineries and government mints. There have been a few prominent examples in recent history that we'll explore briefly later.

What that means, even if the spot price remains stable or declines, premiums may rise on popular products. These periods of crisis decrease silver availability. That demand causes products to become more expensive.

It is also important to understand the difference between wholesale and retail pricing. Large institutional buyers may acquire silver close to spot through bulk contracts. That type of investment is referred to as wholesale pricing. In contrast, individual investors often pay higher retail premiums for smaller quantities and finished products. This is retail pricing.

In practical terms, smart investors watch both spot prices and premiums. Focusing on one without the other can lead to overpaying. It can also lead to missed opportunities to acquire silver bullion at better overall value.

How Silver Bullion Behaves During Economic Crises

Silver bullion often behaves differently from paper assets during periods of financial strain. In crises like the 2008 recession and the COVID-19 market shock, demand for physical silver surged as investors sought safe-haven assets.

Interestingly, even though spot prices sometimes fell initially due to liquidity pressures, premiums on physical silver spiked sharply due to supply shortages. This disconnect highlights a key advantage of silver bullion. Its value is not tied solely to markets, but also to real-world availability and investor demand.

Silver Bullion vs Other Silver Investments

Silver bullion is not the only type of silver investment. Understanding how silver bullion compares to other options helps investors choose the right approach based on risk, control, and long-term goals.

Bullion vs Numismatic Coins

Silver bullion is valued for its metal content. In contrast, numismatic coins derive their value from rarity, condition, and collector demand.

That makes numismatics more speculative. Prices can fluctuate based on trends in the collector market, not their metal content. In contrast, bullion offers much more transparent pricing. It is closely tied to the spot price, which makes it easier to value and trade.

Bullion vs ETFs

Silver ETFs (exchange-traded funds) provide exposure to silver prices without requiring physical ownership. These assets are convenient because they trade on the stock exchange, which makes them both wealth-generating and highly liquid. However, they also bring counterparty risk.

Investors rely on financial institutions to manage the underlying silver assets. With physical silver bullion, you have complete ownership over the metal. There is no intermediary, which appeals to investors who want financial independence.

Bullion vs Mining Stocks

Mining stocks offer indirect exposure to silver prices, but they behave very differently. Their performance depends on company management, production costs, geopolitical risks, and broader stock market conditions. This leads to significantly higher volatility.

That volatility can lead to outsized gains in strong markets, something many investors enjoy. However, it is a two-edged sword; mining stocks can also underperform when silver prices rise. That volatility sometimes leads to massive losses.

Key Differences at a Glance

Factor	Silver Bullion	ETFs & Mining Stocks	Numismatic Coins
Ownership	Physical asset you directly own	Paper claims managed by institutions	Physical, but value tied to collectibility
Counterparty Risk	None	Present (fund managers, companies)	Low, but market-dependent
Liquidity	High, globally recognized	High, traded on exchanges	Variable, depends on collector demand
Volatility	Tracks silver price	Higher, influenced by markets and operations	Can fluctuate based on trends and rarity

Why Investors Buy Silver Bullion

Investors buy silver bullion for a simple reason: it offers direct ownership of a tangible asset. It does not make an investor dependent on any third-party.

That characteristic provides other advantages that make silver appealing to investors. One of the primary drivers is inflation protection. While silver prices can fluctuate in the short term, the metal has managed to retain its value in correlation to dollar devaluation.

Silver bullion also provides diversification. Traditional portfolios are heavily weighted toward stocks and bonds. While that's not a problem per se, these assets move together during economic downturns.

Physical silver behaves differently. It can act as a counterbalance when confidence in markets weakens or volatility increases.

There is also a growing appeal in the idea of financial independence. Unlike ETFs or bank-held assets, silver bullion does not rely on a third party to retain its value. Investors do not have to worry about management fees, no counterparty exposure, and no reliance on digital systems. You can hold onto these items in the knowledge that you own them.

Silver also carries a long-standing role as sound money. Nations have used it in their monetary systems for thousands of years. That history has an enduring legacy. It reinforces the idea that silver bullion is more than just another investment; rather, it is a form of wealth that has endured long before modern financial systems existed.

How to Buy Silver Bullion Safely

Buying silver bullion is straightforward, but doing it safely and cost-effectively requires a bit of discipline. The biggest mistakes investors make are overpaying, buying from unreliable sources, or failing to plan for storage.

Start by choosing a reputable dealer. Look for established companies with transparent pricing, strong customer reviews, and clear buyback policies. Well-known online dealers and local coin shops can both be good options, but always verify credibility before making a purchase.

Next, ensure you understand premiums. The price you pay will always be higher than the spot price. However, premiums should be reasonable, not exorbitantly high or unusually low.

Compare prices across multiple dealers to avoid overpaying. It's especially important for popular products like Silver Eagles, where premiums can vary drastically.

Look out for scams and high-pressure sales tactics. If a deal sounds too good to be true, it probably is. Similarly, beware of sellers pushing “rare” or “exclusive” silver at inflated prices when your goal is bullion investing. Instead, focus on products that derive their value from their metal content. These are more secure and stable investments.

It is also prudent to consider your storage options. There are three primary ways to store silver, each with their own advantages. Some investors like to keep their silver home for direct access. Others choose a secure storage vault for larger holdings.

You may also be able to keep your silver in a safe deposit box at your bank, though this option reduces your access to your silver and requires you to pay for your own insurance.

Finally, there are precious metals IRAs, which allow you to hold bullion in a tax-advantaged account under strict guidelines.

Following these tips can help you avoid serious missteps. In doing so, it can ensure your silver bullion investment preserves your wealth without unnecessary risks.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is silver bullion a good investment?

Silver bullion can be a good investment depending on your financial goals. As a precious metal investment, it is not ideal for generating wealth. However, it is very good at preserving wealth. Most investors buy silver to hedge against inflation, which this metal does well. It tends to retain its value, even during times of great economic uncertainty.

However, prices can be volatile in the short term. Sometimes, that volatility can help investors do speculative trading with this investment.

What purity qualifies as bullion?

The global standard for bullion purity is .999. However, some bullion exceed this purity. One example is the Silver Canadian Maple Leaf, which is .9999. Still, while some bullion may exceed this standard, the standard remains .999.

Are Silver Eagles considered bullion?

Silver Eagles are indeed considered bullion. In fact, they are among the most globally recognized one-ounce bullion investments. They are 99.9% pure, eligible for a precious metals IRA, and highly liquid.

How is silver bullion taxed?

Silver bullion is typically taxed as a collectible in the United States, meaning long-term capital gains may be taxed at a maximum rate of 28%, rather than standard capital gains rates. Short-term gains are taxed as ordinary income.

Tax rules can differ depending on how you hold your silver, such as in an IRA or through certain transactions. Investors should also note that potential state sales taxes when purchasing bullion depending on location and quantity.

What is the best form of silver bullion to buy?

It depends on your goals. Generally, larger bars are the best way to accumulate silver ounces for the lowest premiums. However, these can also have drawbacks.

They often take longer to sell on an exchange. In contrast, silver bullion coins often have higher premiums but excellent liquidity. Coins and rounds are also easy to stack and store in smaller safes.

A Final Reflection

The answer to “What is silver bullion” should be clear by now. Silver bullion remains one of the simplest ways to own physical precious metals without the added complexity of collectibles or paper assets. Investors who value transparency, control, and long-term wealth preservation, often find that silver bullion offers a clear approach.

It is not designed for quick profits or speculation. Instead, silver bullion serves as a foundational asset. It is a tangible commodity you can hold, one that provides insurance against inflation, currency risk, and financial instability. Its value comes from its globally renowned metal content.

If your goal is to diversify beyond traditional markets and maintain purchasing power over time, silver bullion can play a meaningful role in your strategy.

Silver Rings The Bell

Mon, 11 May 2026 00:00:00 EST

Something very interesting is happening in the metals and mining market right now.

As you know, the winds of war have been driving every asset market. Stocks, bonds, and commodities (including gold and silver) have risen along with hopes for peace, while oil and the dollar have fallen when those hopes emerge.

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And of course, the opposite has occurred whenever those hopes have been dashed.

But something important changed last week...

On Wednesday, all the markets surged when the outlook for a resolution with Iran seemed as positive as ever. Gold jumped over $130, and silver exploded 6% higher.

Then, hopes were once again dashed on Thursday, sending the U.S. stock market lower...but gold and silver bucked the trend and gained on the day.

As I commented to our Gold Newsletter Alert readers on Thursday:

Not too shabby o performance after yesterday's big gains for gold and silver. But what is really intriguing is the fact that the major U.S. stock indices fell today after early gains, on rumors that Iran was going to reject the U.S. peace proposal.

On that news, oil and the Dollar Index also reversed higher.

Gold and silver also fell from their peaks on the news, as one would expect...but they still remained well in the green with nice gains, precisely as one would not have expected.

I’ve been preaching about the positive correlation between gold and the stock market, and the metal’s negative correlation with oil, since shortly after the Iran conflict began. At least for today, those correlations have reversed.

So is this the big turnaround we’ve been waiting for? Is a resolution with Iran truly at hand? Is gold breaking free of its ties with other assets and beginning to trade on its own bullish fundamentals?

We’ll discover all of this in the days just ahead. But for now, it’s a very positive sign.

The good news is that the positive signs have continued.

Today, after dour news on the Iran front over the weekend, U.S. stocks fell early on. Gold did as well, as traders sold it quickly out of long-standing habit.

But...silver diverged, leaping higher from the get-go. Mining stocks also rose, despite gold’s decline.

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As I write, gold has regained all of its losses and surged into the green. U.S. stock indices have also rebounded, but gold recovered before they did.

What does all this mean?

The Truth About Silver and Mining Equities in a Bull Market

Throughout the first 18 months or so of https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/05/10/the-anatomy-of-a-silver-bull-run-and-other-silver-news-004906";>this bull market, when gold was being driven higher by central bank buying while silver and mining stocks remained stuck in the mud, it became quite fashionable for pundits to say that this was perfectly normal.

They claimed that silver and gold stocks always lag gold.

Nothing could be further from the truth. In fact, over my decades in this business, watching these markets daily, it has always been a well-known fact that these leveraged sectors led moves in gold, especially in bull markets.

That’s because buying from Western investors/traders traditionally drove the entire metals and mining sector, and these sharpies always jumped on the bandwagon early with the most sensitive and leveraged plays.

Central banks don’t buy silver or mining stocks, so this time was, to borrow a dangerous phrase, different.

When Western traders jumped into the sector with enthusiasm at the end of last summer, coinciding with Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech that previewed rate cuts, the historic patterns began to reemerge.

So silver and mining equities are once again leading indicators for gold. Which brings us to what’s happening right now...

https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/Gold-Silver-Spot-Price-USD--1-.png"; width="800" height="492" class="mx-auto p-3" alt="" />

The chart above shows how the gold/silver ratio has plummeted in recent sessions, as silver began to dramatically outperform gold.

Silver is somewhat of a special situation right now, with extraordinary supply dynamics surfacing. Consider that China, which has historically been a net exporter of silver, is currently importing silver at a record pace.

So, just in case silver is moving for very specific supply/demand reasons right now, let’s check in with gold stocks to see what they’re indicating...

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Well, look at that. The GDX/gold ratio took off last week, rising simultaneously with silver.

Looks like they’re telling us something. And this chart of gold itself, updated as I write, also indicates that the bottom may be in:

https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/Gold-Spot-Price-US-Dollar-OANDA--1-.png"; width="800" height="488" class="mx-auto p-3" alt="" />

Even as gold has recovered today, https://www.moneymetals.com/silver-price";>silver has surged another 5.5%, while the mining indices are up about 3%. And let’s not ignore copper, which is setting another all-time record right now.

Now, all this said, the next big rally in gold may still be a little way off. A final resolution in the U.S.-Iran war may be the final needed ingredient to spark that move.

But judging from what silver and mining stocks are telling us, it looks like the bottom is behind us.

To get Brien Lundin’s ongoing commentary on the markets at no charge, https://goldnewsletter.com/golden-opportunities-sign-up/?tblci=GiBdY-MYH1-nD-WW6UXCXAtHBPIEdPpDc50r48qPeOICrCDKuWUow8jry8SFw-EvMLzYPQ"; target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://goldnewsletter.com/go/signup.php&;amp;source=gmail&ust=1744317318819000&usg=AOvVaw2ANgx-AJB2jYMBK3Hg82yd" rel="noopener noreferrer">click here to subscribe to his free Golden Opportunities newsletter.

The Anatomy of a Silver Bull Run and Other Silver News

Sun, 10 May 2026 00:00:00 EST

Silver surged to record highs last year, peaking at $84 in December, before climbing as high as $110 early this year.

What caused this extraordinary bull run?

As the Silver Institute explains in its latest edition of silver news, it was a combination of factors, including tight liquidity and growing investor interest.

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“Exceptionally strong physical demand, tight inventories, and robust industrial metal prices, copper in particular, fueled silver’s outperformance of gold during that period. This trend eventually became self-fulfilling, as investors that had previously favored gold shifted their attention to the white metal.”

More fundamentally, it was a shortage of physical metal.

“Silver’s deficit finally caught up with it, as lower inventories and metal being pulled out of London or tied up in exchange-traded products (ETPs) created explosive conditions for lease rates and prices.”

The shortage of physical metal, along with the displacement of silver due to tariff worries last year, https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/04/16/how-a-silver-shortage-sparked-a-historic-price-rally-004839";>set the stage for two silver squeezes.

The silver demand has outstripped supply for five straight years. The 5-year market deficit amounted to 716 million ounces. To put that into perspective, total silver mining output last year was 846 million ounces. Metals Focus forecasts a 46.3-million-ounce supply deficit this year.

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We can see the trajectory of the silver rally in the movement of https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/03/25/what-is-the-gold-silver-ratio-why-should-we-pay-attention-to-it-003075";>the gold-silver ratio. This ratio tells you how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold, given the current spot price of both metals.

In the modern era, the gold-silver ratio has averaged between 40:1 and 60:1. Through the first 10 months of 2025, the gold-silver ratio was historically high, averaging 91:1. The ratio peaked in April at 107:1. By the end of the year, the ratio had plunged to 61:1 before falling into the sub-50s early this year. It was the narrowest gold-silver ratio since March 2013, indicating a significant correction in the silver price.

Even with the recent correction, the Silver Institute remains bullish moving forward, warning that despite some easing in the market, https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/05/05/the-silver-market-has-stabilized-but-remains-at-risk-for-additional-squeezes-004890";>the environment remains favorable for additional squeezes.

“Policy uncertainty remains unusually high, sovereign debt fears are, if anything, worsening in the face of war-related fiscal pressures, and concerns about the future role of the U.S. currency also remain relevant. The Iran war has complicated the short-term outlook, but in our view, on balance, strengthens the longer-term case for precious metals. Our base case is that the situation will be contained, and that the recent pressure that rising U.S. rate expectations have placed on precious metals prices will be temporary.”

The most recent edition of Silver News also highlighted some interesting technological advances using silver.

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Just when you thought that silver nanowires could not be more versatile, a group of Korean scientists has developed a new insulating layer to encase the wires that results in greater electrical conductivity and more durability.

While most people are trying to figure out how to minimize CO2, it is an important input in some industrial applications, and there are scientists working to produce it more efficiently. Carbon dioxide is generally considered a waste product, but it has many uses, particularly as a precursor to other chemicals and products such as fertilizers and for making methanol, which is used in paints, plastics, and adhesives. Carbon dioxide is also used in the production of pharmaceuticals such as aspirin.

A research team at the Korea Advanced Institute of Science & Technology (KAIST) has developed a silver nanowire network that looks like a bird’s nest to more efficiently produce CO2 for industrial use. The team noted that they achieved 86 percent efficiency in producing carbon dioxide with their silver nanowire configuration, compared to 33 to 60 percent in similar non-silver nanowire-based systems (such as copper).

Silver may help efficiently produce hydrogen for use as a power source. Not only is hydrogen clean-burning – leaving only water – but it is easier to store and transport than petroleum-based fuels. Conventional methods of producing hydrogen, such as steam methane reforming (SMR) or water electrolysis, have disadvantages that silver may help to overcome.

One up-and-coming method is known as dehydrogenation – literally, removing hydrogen. This process can be performed at low temperature and pressure, without requiring large amounts of electrical power. The process uses formic acid – a chemical released by ants – and a catalyst of silver-nickel. While scientists have experimented with catalysts composed of nickel alone, the addition of silver enhances the amount of hydrogen gas produced.

Vanadium oxide batteries are an alternative to lithium-ion batteries. However, they have a drawback. They are subject to crystal growth that can cause failures. Researchers have found that adding silver to the batteries can prevent this phenomenon, leading to a safer, longer-lasting battery.

Inflation Is Americans' Biggest Financial Worry and It's Not Even Close

Sun, 10 May 2026 00:00:00 EST

The inflation dragon is alive and well.

Last November, Donald Trump called himself “https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115633174669225455"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">the affordability president.” However, it appears that the message is falling flat with your average American.

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Based on https://news.gallup.com/poll/708905/affordability-dominates-americans-financial-worries.aspx"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">a recent Gallup poll, affordability tops the list of Americans’ most pressing financial problems. In total, 65 percent of the respondents mentioned rising costs as their biggest economic concern.

The survey was conducted between April 1 and April 15.

Of those surveyed using open-ended questions, 31 percent mentioned generally high inflation with rising persistently high and rising prices as their biggest financial worry. That was below the 41 percent peak in 2024, but similar to last year’s results. According to Gallup, general inflation worries are among the highest in its more than 20-year trend.

On top of the nearly third of Americans worried about inflation generally, many more pointed to increasing prices in specific categories as their biggest concern.

“Overall, affordability concerns dominate this year’s list, with combined mentions of inflation, energy, housing, and healthcare costs — along with college expenses, transportation costs, and childcare — far exceeding all other types of financial concerns.”

Rising energy and housing costs tied as the second biggest financial concern, cited specifically by 13 percent of the respondents. Worries about rapidly increasing energy prices were up 10 percent from last year and at the highest level since 2008.

Eight percent of the respondents cited rising healthcare costs as their biggest concern.

https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/gallup-financial-worries-26.png"; width="500" height="450" class="mx-auto p-3" alt="" />

Other issues mentioned as pressing economic problems included taxes (6 percent), debt (6 percent), the overall state of the economy (2 percent), interest rates (2 percent, and Social Security (1 percent).

In a separate Gallup Panel survey, 55 percent of those surveyed said recent price increases have created hardships.

https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/gallup-price-increase-impact-26.png"; width="500" height="447" class="mx-auto p-3" alt="" />

Less than half of Americans view their financial situation as excellent or good. Around 35 percent described it as “fair,” with 19 percent calling their overall financial position “poor.”

Inflation Isn’t a Figment of Our Imagination

Inflation worries are supported by the data.

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We’re all painfully aware of rising fuel prices due to the Iran conflict. The energy index rose 10.9 percent month-to-month in March. That was driven by a 21.2 percent monthly increase in gasoline prices.

But other prices continue to creep higher as well. Annual core inflation, stripping out those fuel prices, nudged up slightly, from 2.5 percent in February to 2.6 percent in March. It’s important to point out that core CPI remains above the Fed’s stated 2 percent target and has been mired in this range for well over a year.

Also, keep in mind that the CPI formula intentionally understates price inflation. The https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/01/15/the-cpi-lie-price-inflation-is-even-worse-than-advertised-002930";>government revised the CPI formula in the 1990s so that it understated the actual rise in prices. Based on the formula used in the 1970s, CPI is closer to double the official numbers. So, if the BLS used the old formula, we’d be looking at CPI closer to 6 percent. And using an honest formula, it would probably be worse than that.

And there is no relief in sight. The Federal Reserve is creating more inflation as we speak.

Consumer price inflation is just one symptom of monetary inflation (what economists https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/01/12/common-definition-of-inflation-you-hear-today-is-wrong-government-propaganda-002925";>historically defined as inflation). The Fed has been ratcheting that up for well over a year.

In other words, we have an actual inflation rate of nearly 5 percent.

The M2 money supply increased by another $57 billion in March.

https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/m2-money-supply-March-26.png"; width="800" height="442" class="mx-auto p-3" alt="" />We also know inflationary pressures are increasing because the Federal Reserve is once again expanding its balance sheet.

https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/Fed-balance-sheet-may-26.png"; width="800" height="575" class="mx-auto p-3" alt="" />

So, if you’re hoping inflation will cool, don’t hold your breath. In fact, you should do everything you can to position yourself to weather more inflationary pressure.

Gold Price Outlook 2026: Safe-Haven Demand and Financial Risks

Sat, 09 May 2026 00:00:00 EST

In a detailed interview on the Money Metals Podcast, host Mike Maharrey spoke with Rhona O’Connell, https://www.stonex.com/en/market-experts/rhona-o-connell/"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">Head of Market Analysis at StoneX, about the forces driving gold and silver markets in 2026.

Drawing on https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLseYUvaoguNgZ1uZ8iOzlxmmoe4AxgMut"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">more than 40 years of experience in precious metals, O’Connell explained why gold continues to function as a critical safe-haven asset during periods of inflation, geopolitical instability, and financial market stress.

O’Connell began by describing https://www.stonex.com/en/"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">StoneX, the global financial services company originally founded in 1923 by F.C. Stone, a former door-to-door egg salesman in Chicago. Formerly known as INTL FCStone, the company operates across commodities, precious metals, agriculture, equities, energy, and global payments markets. O’Connell referred to StoneX as “the largest company you’ve never heard of,” highlighting the firm’s broad institutional presence despite relatively low public recognition.

She also shared details about her own career, which began in 1981 at Consolidated Gold Fields, then the world’s second-largest gold mining company behind Anglo American. Early in her career, she worked on long-term silver and platinum group metals feasibility studies during the volatile aftermath of the 1980 precious metals boom. That experience inside the mining industry, she said, gave her a practical understanding of markets that many analysts never acquire.

(Interview Starts Around 6:38 Mark)

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Why Gold Is Still a Powerful Safe-Haven Asset

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A major theme throughout the interview was gold’s evolving role in investment portfolios. O’Connell explained that while gold was once viewed primarily as an inflation hedge, professional investors now increasingly see it as a “mitigator of risk.”

She noted that gold’s famous intraday peak of $850 per ounce in January 1980 would equal roughly $3,590 in today’s dollars when adjusted using the U.S. Consumer Price Index. According to O’Connell, gold surpassed that https://www.moneymetals.com/gold-price";>inflation-adjusted level in April 2025, reaching new highs in real purchasing-power terms.

Still, she cautioned that gold should not be viewed as a perfect inflation hedge. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, often provide more direct protection against inflation itself. Gold’s greater value, she argued, lies in its ability to improve overall portfolio stability during periods of uncertainty and market volatility.

O’Connell explained that adding even a small amount of gold to a traditional stock-and-bond portfolio can improve what portfolio managers call the “efficient frontier.” In practical terms, investors may achieve better returns for the same level of risk or reduce risk without sacrificing performance.

Why Gold Prices Sometimes Fall During Market Crashes

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Maharrey also asked about a common source of confusion among investors: why gold prices sometimes https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/04/23/silver-prices-rose-even-as-demand-slipped-004858";>decline during financial crises even though gold is considered a safe-haven asset.

O’Connell explained that during periods of market panic, investors frequently sell gold temporarily to raise cash and meet margin calls. Because gold is one of the world’s deepest and most liquid markets, investors can reliably find buyers even when stock markets are collapsing.

She noted that gold’s daily trading volume ranks second only to the S&P 500 and can even exceed trading activity in U.S. Treasuries. As a result, gold often functions like an insurance policy. Investors may liquidate some holdings during moments of extreme stress, but they typically buy back into the market once conditions stabilize.

O’Connell pointed to the COVID-19 market crash as a clear example. https://www.moneymetals.com/gold-price";>Gold fell approximately 7% during the initial selloff but recovered all of its losses within roughly six weeks. Industrial metals experienced much steeper declines and took months to recover, while the S&P 500 required even more time to fully rebound.

How Geopolitical Uncertainty Is Driving Gold and Silver Prices

The interview then turned toward current geopolitical risks, including the Iran conflict and broader global instability.

According to O’Connell, geopolitical uncertainty has been one of the https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/05/07/gold-demand-up-in-q1-sets-record-in-value-terms-004899";>primary drivers of gold investment demand over the past 18 months, particularly since Donald Trump reentered the political spotlight. Investors today face an environment dominated by wars, tariffs, inflation concerns, recession fears, and rapidly changing political developments.

She explained that traders across nearly every asset class have become reluctant to commit capital aggressively because markets can reverse direction almost instantly based on headlines. In her words, the market is now heavily “headline-driven,” with investors reacting constantly to geopolitical developments and central bank signals.

During recent weeks, gold traded within a relatively narrow 5% range while silver moved within a broader 12% range because of silver’s traditionally higher volatility. Investors have been closely monitoring Treasury yields, the VIX volatility index, and the MOVE index for bond volatility while waiting for greater clarity on Middle East tensions and global economic conditions.

Federal Reserve Policy, Inflation, and Rising Debt Concerns

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Maharrey and O’Connell also discussed the increasingly difficult position facing the Federal Reserve and other central banks.

O’Connell agreed that policymakers are trapped between persistent inflation pressures and unsustainable debt burdens. She pointed out that https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/05/04/debt-to-gdp-eclipses-100-percent-and-its-actually-worse-than-that-004888";>U.S. debt-to-GDP levels now sit near 110%, while Europe faces similarly limited fiscal flexibility. Meanwhile, inflation remains above central bank targets, with U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation running near 3.4%.

Although many investors expect eventual interest rate cuts, O’Connell suggested that another rate hike cannot be ruled out if inflation pressures intensify further, particularly if geopolitical conflict drives energy prices higher. She also questioned whether the Federal Reserve’s long-standing 2% inflation target is realistically achievable under current economic conditions.

Throughout the conversation, O’Connell emphasized that uncertainty itself has become one of the market’s biggest concerns. Investors are struggling to forecast future monetary policy, inflation trends, and geopolitical outcomes with any degree of confidence.

Hidden Financial Risks Supporting Long-Term Gold Demand

One of the most important sections of the interview focused on risks O’Connell believes markets may be underestimating.

The first involved the ongoing Supreme Court case surrounding Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. O’Connell warned that if political pressure were perceived to undermine Federal Reserve independence, confidence in U.S. monetary policy could weaken substantially. Even the perception of political interference, she argued, could destabilize Treasury markets and damage confidence in the U.S. dollar globally.

She also expressed concern about the rapid expansion of shadow banking and private credit markets. O’Connell cited estimates placing the size of the private credit sector in the United States and Europe somewhere between $2 trillion and $10 trillion. Because much of the sector remains lightly regulated, she warned that liquidity problems and systemic vulnerabilities could emerge during periods of financial stress.

O’Connell compared the situation to the overlooked warning signs that preceded the 2007 subprime mortgage crisis. She noted that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell himself has acknowledged concerns surrounding private credit risks during Senate testimony.

In her view, these growing systemic vulnerabilities continue to strengthen the long-term case for gold ownership.

Favorite Gold Coins and Silver Coins From Around the World

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Toward the end of the interview, Maharrey asked O’Connell about her favorite precious metals coins.

Rather than choosing based on investment value alone, O’Connell selected coins based on artistic design. She praised the Pamp Suisse Cornucopia coin and the https://www.moneymetals.com/philharmonic-gold-1-oz/71";>Austrian Vienna Philharmonic coin for their beauty, while also mentioning the https://www.moneymetals.com/chinese-panda-gold-coin-1-oz/64";>Chinese Panda and https://www.moneymetals.com/koala-1-oz-silver/116";>Australian Koala coins as particularly appealing collectible designs.

Maharrey responded that the https://www.moneymetals.com/1-oz-south-african-gold-krugerrand-coin/20";>South African Krugerrand remains his personal favorite because it was his grandfather’s preferred gold coin and originally sparked his own interest in precious metals investing.

O’Connell then shared the historical origins of the famous slogan “Gold is money you can trust,” connecting it to the creation of the Krugerrand and the later formation of https://www.gold.org/"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">the World Gold Council during the apartheid era in South Africa.

Why Gold Remains Important in 2026

By the end of the conversation, both Maharrey and O’Connell returned to the interview’s central theme: gold continues to serve as a uniquely trusted monetary asset during periods of economic instability, inflation, geopolitical conflict, and financial stress.

For O’Connell, gold’s long-term importance extends far beyond short-term price movements. In a world increasingly shaped by debt expansion, political uncertainty, and fragile financial systems, gold remains one of the few globally recognized assets that exists outside the direct control of governments and central banks. As she summarized near the close of the interview, https://www.moneymetals.com/resources/sound-money-index";>gold remains “money you can trust.”

Shuffling of Silver Reduced Strain on Global Market… for Now

Fri, 08 May 2026 00:00:00 EST

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.

Coming up don’t miss an incredibly informative interview with Rhona O’Connell, Head of Market Analysis with StoneX Financial – a global leader when it comes to financial services, commercial hedging, foreign exchange and physical commodities. Rhona has over 40 years of experience as a commodities analyst and is a recognized authority in the precious metals sector.

Mike Maharrey and his guest this week dive into the burning question on many metals investors’ minds of why gold and silver don’t seem to be acting like a true safe haven in the midst of a tenuous geopolitical backdrop given tensions between the U.S. and Iran. Rhona always weighs in on the cracks in the private credit market and what she believes that may be a potential tailwind for gold moving forward.

So, be sure to stick around for our exclusive interview with StoneX’s Rhona O’Connell, coming up after this week’s market update. And if you enjoy this material, please do us a favor and like and subscribe to this podcast wherever you consume this content.

Silver has certainly grabbed a lot of headlines over the last six to nine months. And supply tightness played a key role in the fireworks we’ve seen when it comes to the white metal. The movement of silver out of the U.S. has helped ease market tightness, but an ongoing structural supply deficit makes the metal vulnerable to future squeezes.

Silver went on an incredible run late last year after taking off in October as https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/10/20/london-india-and-the-anatomy-of-a-silver-squeeze-004422";>a silver squeeze gripped the market. The metal opened in 2025 at about $29 and didn’t crack $40 until September. When the year ended, the price sat at nearly $72. At its peak, silver was up 147 percent intra-year. The average price came in at $40, a 42 percent increase.

A convergence of factors, from market dynamics to logistical problems, led to the October squeeze and https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/12/29/silver-squeeze-20-drives-price-over-80-004576";>a second squeeze late last year that briefly drove silver prices over $100 in January.

While the market dynamics that got us here might be difficult to untangle, the situation is about as basic as it gets.

There’s not enough new silver supply being pulled from the ground. The silver market recorded a supply deficit for the fifth consecutive year in 2025.

As we mentioned a week ago, last year demand outstripped supply by 40 million ounces, driving the 5-year market deficit to 716 million ounces. To put that into perspective, total silver mining output last year was 846 million ounces. And Metals Focus forecasts another 46-million-ounce supply deficit this year.

The stage was set months earlier when tonnes of silver moved from London to New York due to tariff worries. As President Trump began levying tariffs in April 2025, silver streamed into the U.S. CME silver holdings, eclipsing the record set during the pandemic at 531 million ounces.

Meanwhile, metal bled from London vaults.

Much of the silver remaining in London was already committed to ETFs. That left very little “free float” metal to provide liquidity to the London market. According to Metals Focus, the share of London silver stocks, not allocated to ETPs, fell to just 17 percent by the end of September 2025.

That set the stage for the first squeeze, and a surge in Indian silver demand last fall was the pin that popped the bubble.

Initially, Indian buyers were primarily sourcing silver from Hong Kong, but they reportedly shifted more toward London during the Chinese Golden Week Holiday in the first week of October.

But London vaults were already tapped out.

As the squeeze intensified, silver lease rates exceeded 200 percent, reflecting the strain in the market.

After a healthy correction in January, the market has stabilized, with silver prices settling in a range between $70 and $85 an ounce.

The movement of silver out of the U.S. to parts of the world in shortage helped to settle the market.

About half of the departing metal went to London. However, there was a significant increase in silver exports to the UAE and Hong Kong.

While the amount of silver in London vaults has barely budged this year, the amount of “free float” silver available for trading or delivery has increased as metal committed to ETFs dropped after the price correction. Global silver ETF holdings have declined by around 70 million ounces (5 percent) year-to-date.

Currently, the amount of free float silver in London stands at around 235 million ounces, the highest level since December 2024. That’s up approximately 116 million ounces since the low last September.

While the shuffling metal between the U.S., London, the Middle East, and Asia have taken the strain off the silver market, this has not solved the fundamental problem.

It’s like a game of musical chairs. Everything seems fine while the music is playing. However, when it stops, there are going to be problems.

Well before we get to the interview let’s get an update here on the price action for the week.

Gold is up an even $100 or 2.2% now on the week and checks in at $4,726 an ounce.

Silver is up $5 and currently trades at $81.09 an ounce as of this Friday morning recording.

Turning to the PGMs, platinum checks in at $2,052 an ounce, up 2.6% since last Friday’s close. As for palladium, the industrial metal is actually down $50 or 3.2% to check in at $1,491.

Well now, without further delay, let’s get right to this week’s exclusive interview.

Mike Maharrey: Greetings, I'm Mike Maharrey and I'm joined today by Rona O'Connell. She's the head of market analyst at StoneX. How are you doing today?

Rhona O’Connell: I'm very good indeed. Thank you, Michael. How are you?

Mike Maharrey: I'm doing well. It's a pleasure to talk to you and appreciate you taking a little time out of your day. I know it's toward the end of your day in London. I'm just kind of getting started over here in the US, but I appreciate you coming on the show.

Rhona O’Connell: I'm closer to cocktail now than you are.

Mike Maharrey: Yes, indeed. And lucky for you. But we have to get through this interview first before you can have your cocktail. Oh, shucks. Sorry. That's the way it goes. So what I'd like to do first is I'm not sure that everybody's going to be familiar with StoneX. We've been familiar with some of the output that you guys have put out and it's fantastic, but I would love for you to just give an overview of what you do and your role at StoneX.

Rhona O’Connell: Yes, absolutely. StoneX is described, or StoneX the company, it was described a couple of years ago by one of our senior economists as the largest company you've never heard of, which is probably quite a good way of putting it. We're financial services, and that means that we cover all sorts of areas from the commodities markets, which is obviously the London Metal Exchange markets and the precious metals through to ags, dairy, softs, energy. We have a very powerful global payments division, which is focused on facilitating payments between one central bank and another, usually from a major one to something slightly more obscure. And we have a system which makes that sort of smooth and easy to do. And we have a team which they call themselves Global Prime, and that predominantly revolves around equities. So our customer base, which is both institutional and retail, is pretty much global and covers virtually all the different sectors to one extent or another, as far as the different financial elements are concerned.

We were founded in 1923 by Mr. F.C. Stone. And we changed our name to StoneX about 60 years ago. Before that, we were INTLFC Stone having acquired various different companies along the way. But Mr. F. C. Stone started out his professional life as a door-to-door egg salesman in Chicago.

Mike Maharrey: Oh, wow!

Rhona O’Connell: And we've grown from there. Yeah.

Mike Maharrey: That's a great story.

Rhona O’Connell: As far as I'm concerned, I'll just give you a little bit of background about me. I've been in the markets almost exclusively, but not totally the precious metals markets since 1981. I have covered the LME suite as well. I started at Consolidated Gold Fields when I was not long out of university as a baby metals markets analyst. Gold Fields, at that point, was the world's second largest gold mining company behind Ingle American. And I was very lucky to get that job because they advertised for two graduates and the self-starter was going to be on the oil side and the baby, which was with me, went on to the precious metals team. And that was the most wonderful grounding because rather than starting my career as an observer of the markets, I was actually in there doing it.

We covered the gold market because consistently, obviously we did. But for one of the years that I was there, my boss and I were seconded to ... No, not seconded. We were instructed basically to do an in- depth outlook for the evolution of the silver market, which formed part of the feasibility study for advanced exploration project. We did not bring on stream because this was the early '80s and we'd been up to $50 allowance, but we were going back to between five and 10 and it wouldn't have been viable. And then we did a similar exercise for the platinum group metals, again, looking out over 10 years, but there were three of us doing that one. And that was part of the feasibility study for what is now the northern platinum mine in South Africa. So I have actually been inside the industry as well as working in the financial sector.

And I do think that for any analyst to do their job properly, you do actually need to have been hands-on to kick off with. So that's what I do.

Mike Maharrey: Oh, that's a fantastic background. It's wild to think about how much you've seen change since the 1980s. Think about what the price of gold was in 1980 compared to what we're seeing today. You've definitely seen it all, so to speak.

Rhona O’Connell: Well, it had already hit $850 in early 1980s. I started in second quarter of 1981, but obviously is gold an inflation hedge. In those days, it was definitely seen as the inflation hedge. Now one of the big changes, particularly, well, from the point of view of the professional investor, yes, gold is an inflation hedge up to a point. It's much more important as a mitigator of risk. And if you're looking for an inflation hedge pure and simple, you're much better off with the TIPS index by definition, treasury inflation protected securities. But looking at gold's price performance in real terms and using the US CPI as the deflator, that $850, which was hit on an intraday basis, wasn't a fix, it was just an interday print, equates in today's money to $3,590. So we actually took out that high in real terms in April of last year, just before the tariff day ... Actually, no, it was just after, I think, but it was in early April.

So we are now consistently making highs in real terms, or at least we were until the end of January. So it hasn't worked as a perfect inflation hedge, but it's not actually supposed to. That's not what it's there for.

Mike Maharrey: Can you explain, go into a little more depth about what you mean by a risk mitigator?

Rhona O’Connell: Sure. There are two or three different ways of looking at it. Let's get the complicated one out of the way first because then we can all relax.

If you think of a professional portfolio, let's say a mixture of equities and bonds, which is basically what most people would run. If you take a chart and you have reward along the X axis, let's say, and risk along the Y axis, and you plot the two of them together, you'll get a curve. Generally speaking, a lot of quantitative research has been done on this subject. If a portfolio manager adds a little bit of gold into his portfolio, and obviously everybody will have different strategies, then almost invariably, you will find that gold will push what is called the efficient frontier, which is that curve that I'm talking about. And by pushing it, what I mean is that you will find that for the same level of risk, by adding gold, you'll get a better reward.

Conversely, for the same level of reward, you'll have a reduced risk. Now, it's not perfect, but it works all easily 95% of the time. So that's what I mean by mitigator of risk in that particular respect. Now, that takes us on to the next area whereby when the equity markets in particular, but sometimes also the treasuries, find themselves in meltdown, the gold price almost invariably falls. And I can't count the number of times, A, that's happened, and B, that I and my peers across the industry have been asked,

“Why? I thought this was supposed to be a hedge against risk and the price has come off. Help, I don't understand.” The answer is that in this context, mitigator of risk is probably best described as insurance policy, because although the gold market is relatively small, it's very, very deep. And actually in terms of daily turnover and dollar terms, it's actually in the second behind the S&P and it's ahead of US treasuries.

So, when equity markets are in a tailspin, you will almost always find that equity investors who have gold will sell part of it, and that's because it's a deep and liquid market, and you will always get a counterparty. Whereas if you've got an equity market that's on the skids, you might not. And therefore, a lot of people will liquidate some of their holdings in order to generate cash to meet against any margin cause that they may run into in following days. And I did an exercise on this. Well, lots of people have done it, but I did something for StoneX about three years or so ago. And it's still valid because it's a theoretical piece as opposed to having a time, a shelf life, shall we say. And our Far Eastern desk helped me out in that I wrote a very short, very simple questionnaire, which they then took out to Far Eastern wealth managers.

And basically, what I asked was, or have you held gold? And if the answer is yes, then you carry on with the questions. "Have you sold in times of distress? Did you buy it back and when did you buy it back?” And almost to a man, they said, "Yes, we do hold it. Yes, we have sold it. Yes, we have bought it back and we bought it back when the dust has settled.” So, it acts as an insurance policy. So it does come down, but then it comes back again. Example, COVID, now that's distressed with a capital D. Gold was sold off when the equity markets and pretty much all the other commodity markets were falling very sharply. And a year or so later, my colleague who covers the base metals and I put together a table looking at different asset classes and the percentage by which they've fallen from the peak in the March until they stopped falling, obviously, and how long has it taken them to unwind all those losses?

Gold dropped by something like 7% and had unwound its losses within six weeks. Most of the other industrial metals dropped by double digits and took months to recover, and the S&P took even longer than that. So, that's a tangible example of how it works. So, that's what I mean by mitigator of risk. And then of course, we have the longer term concept of the fact that it's the asset of last resort. The thinking behind that being that it's a currency and it's the only currency which is not underwritten by anybody, any other central bank. So, it's globally accepted and that therefore also means it's something to which people will flee, not necessarily in times of trouble, although that happens, but also in order to make sure that they've got something there that they can fall back on just in case. So that's basically what I mean by asset of last resort mitigator of risk.

Mike Maharrey: Outstanding. Excuse me. I'm so glad that you explained that because as you know, we saw that drop at the beginning of the Iran conflict and a lot of people were coming to me like, "This is supposed to be safe haven. It's selling off.” And you just explained exactly how I was explaining it, so that makes me feel better to know that I'm on the right track there. But no, that's a fantastic explanation. So, speaking of the Iran conflict, it seems like right now that that's the primary driver of everything and we're swinging based on whatever the latest news of the day. And of course it switches on a dime. Kind of what's your take on how the war has altered the dynamics in the gold and silver markets or has it really, or is it still underlying things that are kind of pushing things along? How do you see this war factoring into things?

Rhona O’Connell: Well, we could talk until the sun's over the horizon at your end, as well as over mine on this one. It's all about uncertainty at the moment. Geopolitics is obviously one of the key areas that's been feeding into gold investment or just investment activity over the last 18 months or so, basically since President Trump started his run for power. But with respect to your specific question, what we have here is obviously geopolitical conflict, which is feeding into commodity prices, massive supply chain disruptions, which could lead to recession, could lead to stagflation. And I've heard both of those words used in America over the last two or three days, stagflation notably from a couple of members of the FOMC. Recession, can't remember who that was, forgive me, but it's out there.

And what this has done, apart from, as you said, the selloff and the subsequent stabilization, there's been a little bit of bargain hunting, but not very much because we've had so many on again, off again situations with respect to talks, resolutions of the differences, will it happen? Won't it happen? How long is it going to last? Now, as you and I speak, it looks as if there may actually be a genuine kind of breakthrough coming through, which is one of the reasons why the gold, one of the reasons why the gold price has gone up. And we'll come back to that because I'd like to talk about how it seems to be doing what it shouldn't be doing, but let's just go back a little bit.

Essentially, over the last three weeks or so, certainly talking to my colleagues on our bullying desk and talking to other people in the industry, very few people, and it's not just gold and silver here, have been prepared to commit to anything just about. No one wants to commit capital. No one wants to go risk on in either direction, regardless of which asset class you're talking about, unless you happen to do one of the big seven in the AI S&P, of course, whether animal which has laws unto itself. And that is one of the reasons why the price of both metals until yesterday have been trading very, very narrow ranges by comparison with the previous 18 months or so. Gold's been in a range of about 5% silver as is typical because silver's got quite a high beater with respect to gold, that's been a range of about 12%.

Then they're poking their noses up towards the top of the ranges today, largely because we've got the potential talks about having peace on the horizon.

Normally, in thin conditions, you would expect volatility, but this time around, nobody really wants to see very much of a wide price range because they don't know quite how much risk there's going to be because they don't know who's going to say what to whom in the next 48 hours. So it's been stable where some other things have not been. And really what is ... The way one of the dealers put it the other day was, because I said it's looking at the bond market primarily, and he said, yes, it is. And it's also looking at headlines. And I thought that was a lovely way of summing it up. It was reacting to headlines. Now, one of the things which will tell you why people or will illustrate rather the degree to which people really don't want to get involved at all at the moment is that over the last five or six weeks or so, practically every time the gold price has changed direction, it's either been because of the change in bond yields, most notably over the last week or so, or when it's been veering very close to one of the important moving averages.

So, it's being governed by technicals, essentially. Now, of course, all of these things are related to one another. The dollar is a barometer for confidence in its own right. Bond yields, likewise. Then you've got the move index, which is the volatility and bonds. You've got the VIX index, which is volatility in equities and gold's negative correlation with those two at the moment is relatively strong. So everybody who is involved, who needs to trade, is basically taking those ... As far as I can see at any rate, looking at the charts and so forth, they're taking the signals from those parameters because they don't want to commit to anything else until we know whether and when we've got a holding truth in the Middle East.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah. It's so hard in this day and age. And even going beyond the war, regime uncertainty is the term that I really like. And that seems to be the rule of the day here, especially here in the United States. We don't know what Donald Trump's going to do next. He may decide we're not going to have any tariffs tomorrow. And then ... So, I can't imagine having to be a decision-maker in this environment.

Rhona O’Connell: Oh, I'd hate it. And one of the elements, and I said we've got uncertainty about the Gulf War, we've got uncertainty in Europe because it looks like Europe may be about hit recession, and we could well be in for a rate hike coming from the European Central Bank. For that matter, if Gulf War is protected, and let's pray that it isn't, there is a faint possibility of a hike coming from the Fed. It's unlikely that we're going to get a cut until the final quarter, but we might get a hike because PCE at 3.4%, I think it is, is unacceptable if you're going to pursue the dual mandate. Although I'm not quite sure whether 2% is ever going to be feasible again, to be fair.

Mike Maharrey: Do you think it's fair to say that the Fed and central banks in general are kind of between a rock and a hard place right now? Because on the one hand, you've got obviously inflationary pressures. And then on the other hand, you've got these piles of debt, and so debt doesn't play nicely with interest rates. So what do you do as a central banker? I think you do exactly what the markets are doing. You kind of sit pat and wait to try to see which direction and when's that ultimately going to blow.

Rhona O’Connell: Well, Jay Powell's been using the term data dependent for a long time, as is Europe, and as they should be. There's not a lot of fiscal space in Europe. There's not a huge amount in the states, and the state's GDP ... Sorry, the state's national debtor GDP I think is around about 110% now. Europe is not far behind. So yes, they have their hands tied to a certain extent, but one of the things that I've been watching apart from the Gulf with respect to geopolitics is, well, there's two things. One's geopolitics, one is financial. I know it might sound like a side issue, but I'm particularly interested, and I have been for months, in the decision from the Supreme Court, as and when we get it, on the Lisa Cook case, because when the president wanted to fire her for alleged, and the important word here is alleged, misinformation when she was looking to take out a mortgage on what turned out to be a second property, not a first one, she sued because if she did it or if she didn't do it, either way, it was still an allegation.

So, the court's found in her favor, and it's the administration which is on appeal to the Supreme Court. Now, my strong expectation, particularly looking at the way that the judges were questioning Scott Bessent last year, albeit on a different issue, is that I think they'll throw it out, and I hope they do. The reason being here that I think is really important is that if they've found in favor of the appeal, then the actual person by person makeup of the FOMC is a side issue here. For me, what's much more important is that that would blur the distinction between the legislative, the executive, and the judiciary, i.e., The separation of powers, which is a very important cornerstone of the US Constitution. So, if that were to happen, I suspect you might have a problem in the treasury market, and perception is everything here. There would almost certainly be a perception internationally that US monetary policy was not necessarily going to be in safe hands because in principle, it could be vulnerable to changes every four or eight years.

I'm not saying it would happen, but if the markets run scared because they think it might, then you might get a run on the dollar and you're almost certainly seeing money coming out of the treasury market. So that's one thing that I'm watching closely. The other one is shadow banking and private credit, which is not regulated. I've seen estimates of two trillion to 10 trillion involved in that sector, US and Europe combined. It's not just a US phenomenon at all. It's not regulated. The banks have been offloading debt in order to be able to recapitalize and carry on with what they're supposed to be doing. But this has gone into private hands and we're already seeing cracks in the system whereby any large scale investor who wants to take out a lot of money in one tranche is having problems doing so. So there's a stress there.

And I was watching the Senate Q&A with Jay Powell be about a year ago now, I guess, maybe even slightly longer after his congressional biannual testimony. And the last question in the session, I can't remember the name of the Senator, but she said to him, "Chair Powell, you and I have talked about this privately a lot in the past. Could you tell us what you think about the potential risks to the system for private credit?" And he said, "It could be with us for years," or words to that effect. So, the Fed's aware of it, and I'm pretty sure the European authorities are watching it very closely as well, but it goes back to the subprime in 2007. A smoking gun is probably the wrong term for it, but it was there and not many of us took very much notice of it. It's very close to me because I didn't see the importance of it until it was too late, and it still hurts.

I wasn't the only one, I feel as if I should have done, but maybe I've got a little bit too much emphasis on private credit because I've still got that sting, but I do think it's something that needs to be watched, and that's another tailwind for gold.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah. I'm glad you mentioned those two things. I think you might be a mind reader because my next question was going to be, what are a few things that you see that are going on that maybe are being missed? So thank you for answering my questions before I asked them. I love it.

Rhona O’Connell: That's a pleasure.

Mike Maharrey: So, I've got a couple more things before I get you out. We're about to run out of time, but I do want to ask you just, I said I wanted to ask you a fun question, so here it is. Do you have a favorite gold coin or round or silver, either one or a bar or a particular investment in the precious metal circle that you really, really like? And if so, why?

Rhona O’Connell: Generally speaking, they'll all carry about the same level of premium or given the current state of the retail market discount. So I'm going to give you a feminine response as opposed to an analyst response, and I'm going to tell you which ones I think are the prettiest. And gold and silver, both, it would be a toss-up, oh dear, no pun intended. I really didn't mean to say that. Between the cornucopia coin that Pamp produces in Switzerland and the Vienna Philharmonic, that is so beautiful with the musical instruments. And then for fun, you've got the Chinese panda and the Australian koloa bears.

Mike Maharrey: Those are all excellent answers. I always tell people my favorite's the Krugerrand, not because it's particularly beautiful, but because it was my grandfather's favorite. And that's kind of what got me interested in gold.

Rhona O’Connell: Oh, the Krug is beautiful as well.

Rhona O’Connell: The World Gold Council is the offspring of the International Gold Corporation in Intergold, which was actually formed by Don McKay Coggill, who was an Oxford Cambridge blue, sorry, Oxford Cricket Blue. And when I was at Goldfields, we'd get letters coming through from Goldfield of South Africa, obviously. And the franking on the top right-hand corner of the envelope, back in the early 80s, was “Gold is Money You Can Trust.” And Gee was the one who founded the Krugerrand. So that's where that comes from, back in the annals of history. And then when the apartheid regime was hitting the headlines left, right and center, there were sanctions and so on and so forth, the World Gold Council was formed in London. And that was basically, as I say, the offspring of Intergold.

Mike Maharrey: Very interesting. Still true today, right? Gold is money you can trust.

Rhona O’Connell: Takes us right back to full circle. That's exactly what it is, yes.

Mike Maharrey: Indeed. Before I let you go, I do want you to let folks know where they can learn more about StoneX and avail themselves to the things that you guys have to offer.

Rhona O’Connell: Sure. Yeah. Well, the easiest way to do it is on the website, which is stonex.com. And everything's in there.

Mike Maharrey: It's about as easy as it gets, right?

Rhona O’Connell: Yeah. We try to make things simple.

Mike Maharrey: Absolutely. And that's a good thing because there's enough complicated stuff as we have discussed. We could sit here and talk as you say until the sun sets and rises again over here in the United States, but we both have other things to do, so I'm going to let you go, but I really do, again, appreciate you taking time out of your day to hang out with me. And I'm sure folks will appreciate your insights and we'd love to have you back at some point in the future. So thank you again.

Rhona O’Connell: It's a great pleasure. I've thoroughly enjoyed it and I'd love to join you again.

Mike Maharrey: Well, thank you so much.

Rhona O’Connell: Hopefully in happier, kinder times.

Mike Maharrey: Yes, indeed. Thank you.

Good stuff there from a long time and very knowledgeable commodities and metals analyst and it was great having Ms. O’Connell on the program for the first time here this week.

Well, that will do it for this week. Be sure to check back next Friday for our next Weekly Market Wrap Podcast. And to check out any of our audio programs, including our second podcast, the Money Metals Midweek Memo, just visit https://www.moneymetals.com/podcasts";>MoneyMetals.com/podcasts or find them wherever you listen to your favorite podcasts. And as a big help to us we would ask you to please like, subscribe, download and rate our podcasts. Doing so helps us extend the reach of this material.

Until next time, this has been Mike Gleason with Money Metals Exchange, thanks for listening and have a wonderful weekend everybody.

De-Dollarization Alert: Mozambique Considering Converting Dollar Debt to Yuan Debt

Fri, 08 May 2026 00:00:00 EST

Mozambique officials are considering converting $1.4 billion in debt it owes China into yuan loans as part of a debt restructuring plan.

This is yet another sign of ongoing https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/03/11/de-dollarization-gold-and-a-shift-to-a-multipolar-world-003898";>de-dollarization.

A spokesperson from the country’s finance ministry hinted that the Chinese suggested the move.

“In this specific case, it was a valid possibility that was put on the table.”

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Mozambique faces a significant liquidity crunch. The IMF and the World Bank recently warned that the country’s debt situation is “unsustainable.” Fitch ratings indicate a default is likely.

According to Bloomberg, “Moving dollar debt into yuan would be the latest African example of China’s efforts to internationalize its currency and make inroads into the dollar’s dominance.”

Other African countries have already converted some of their debt to renminbi. Last year, Kenya flipped three loans totaling $5 billion from the Export-Import Bank of China into yuan. Analysts say such a move lowers debt servicing costs and helps “ease currency pressures.”

According to Bloomberg, Ethiopia is considering a similar deal. Meanwhile, Zambia recently held talks with Chinese officials about a potential currency swap. Zambia has already started accepting mine payments in yuan.

In the big scheme of things, the Chinese currency still plays a bit part in global finance. However, the fact that some countries are considering doing business in yuan would have been virtually unthinkable not too long ago.

The yuan’s share of global reserves is still less than 2 percent. That compares to the dollar’s 56.8 percent share of reserves. However, the yuan is slowly gaining ground, having picked up three basis points of the total share in Q4 2025.

The dollar isn’t in any danger of losing its reserve status, and it will likely continue to have a dominant role in global finance. However, there is a clear de-dollarization trend with many countries looking to diversify away from the greenback. Many analysts believe the world is heading toward a “multipolar” financial system with several currencies, along with gold, playing a key role. The rapid https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/05/05/central-banks-added-more-gold-in-march-but-big-sales-sent-net-purchases-negative-004891";>expansion of central bank gold reserves reflects this trend.

Even a modest global de-dollarization spells trouble for the U.S. economy.

The only reason the U.S. can borrow, spend, and run massive budget deficits to the extent that it does is the dollar’s role as the world reserve currency. It creates a built-in global demand for dollars and dollar-denominated assets. This absorbs the Federal Reserve’s money creation and helps maintain dollar strength despite the Federal Reserve’s inflationary policies. It also supports a global Treasury Market. Without foreign investors, demand for Treasuries would crater, sending interest rates into the stratosphere.

Again, the world doesn't have to completely abandon the dollar to create negative impacts. Even a modest drop in the demand for the greenback will ripple through the U.S. economy.

VanEck analysts Imaru Casanova and Joe Foster argue that we're already seeing some economic tremors due to de-dollarization, noting that despite its continued dominance, “The dollar has been devaluing relative to gold—an unprecedented trend.”

It is unprecedented because it has happened during a period of relative dollar strength and the absence of any economic crisis. They say the current gold bull market is being driven by an erosion in confidence in the dollar.

“[P]eople and nations that have long used, coveted and hoarded the U.S. dollar are now losing faith and trust in the currency as a store of wealth. This shift began in 2008 when the global financial crisis led many to question the efficacy of the banking system and Western economic hegemony. It escalated with sanctions and freezing of assets imposed on Russia by the U.S. Other countries fear that similar retribution or ‘weaponization of the dollar’ is possible for lesser infractions than the hostile invasion of another country.”

Global ETF Gold Flows Flipped Back Positive in April

Thu, 07 May 2026 00:00:00 EST

After going negative in March after the outbreak of hostilities between the U.S. and Iran, flows of gold into ETFs flipped positive again in April, with all regions reporting inflows of metal.

Net global ETF gold holdings increased by 45 tonnes, totaling $6.6 billion last month. That pushed total ETF gold reserves to 4,137 tonnes, with total assets under management (AUM) to $615 billion, a 1 percent increase.

It was the third-highest month-end ETF gold holdings on record, just below the record high of 4,176 tonnes set in February 2026.

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European funds led inflows, adding 26.9 tonnes of gold valued at $3.7 billion last month. That flipped year-to-date flows positive.

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Funds in the UK drove regional inflows, with contributions from Swiss and German ETFs. According to the World Gold Council, “Positive flows in the region appeared linked to heightened geopolitical and geoeconomic risks, as investors assessed the inflationary implications of a more protracted Iran conflict and the associated pressure on energy prices. … With local equities retreating and the BoE less hawkish than expected, investor interest in gold likely strengthened as prices recovered and stabilized.”

After shedding 87 tonnes in March, North American funds added 6.1 tonnes of gold valued at $1 billion.

Inflows were concentrated in the first half of the month, with demand softening in the back half, as hope for a quick resolution to the Iran conflict faded.

It appears investors used the liquidity of their gold holdings to cover shorts and strengthen cash positions as markets tanked in the early days of the Iran war. World Gold Council analysts noted that the exodus of gold from ETFs in March corresponded to a “broader macro-pressure and liquidity event rather than a simple oil-only rotation.”

“The subsequent easing in pressure helped flows stabilize in early April, although the recovery remained choppy into month-end.”

Asia was the only region to record gold inflows in March. That trend continued for the eighth straight month, as Asian funds added 11.3 tonnes of gold valued at $1.8 billion in April.

Asian ETF gold inflows are on pace to match last year’s record total.

Chinese funds led the way, with gold buying supported by geopolitical tensions and falling yields.

Indian funds reported their 11^th straight month of gold inflows totaling $297 million.

Funds in other regions, including Australia and Africa, reported a 0.9-tonne increase in gold holdings, led by Australia and South Africa.

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ETFs are a convenient way for investors to play the gold market, but https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/03/08/paper-gold-vs-real-gold-its-important-to-know-the-difference-003038";>owning ETF shares is not the same as holding physical gold.

ETFs are relatively liquid. You can buy or sell an ETF with a couple of mouse clicks. You don’t have to worry about transporting or storing metal. In a nutshell, it allows investors to play the gold market without buying full ounces of metal at the spot price.

Since you are just buying a number in a computer, you can easily trade your ETF shares for another stock or cash whenever you want, even multiple times on the same day. Many speculative investors take advantage of this liquidity.

But while a gold ETF is a convenient way to play the price of gold on the market, you don’t possess any gold. You have paper. And you don’t know for sure that the fund has all the gold either, especially when the fund sees inflows. In such a scenario, there have been difficulties or delays in obtaining physical metal.

Trading Volumes

Global gold market trading volumes fell 24 percent month-on-month to $398 billion per day last month. That was above the 2025 average of $361 billion per day.

Over-the-counter volumes dropped by 10 percent in April to $244 billion per day. That was also well above the 2025 average of $180 billion per day.

Exchanges also reported cooler activity, with both the COMEX and the Shanghai Futures Exchange charting lower volumes. Overall, exchange volumes dropped by 38 percent month-on-month to $147 billion per day.

Gold ETF trading volumes dipped, while remaining around their 2025 average of $7 billion.

On the COMEX, net longs declined 4 percent in April to 477 tonnes.