The Beat Goes On

The economy and equity markets roll on to new heights, the economy in general is continuing to perform superbly, and it is likely that nothing is going to derail it for at least the next six-twelve months unless the Democrats get complete control of Congress, than all bets are off. It is very likely GDP in Q3 will be above 4%, unemployment will drop to 3.8% or even lower, and rates will remain reasonable, even though moving higher. Clearly the Fed is going to raise rates this month, and very possibly in December, but even if they do, and even if the ten year goes to 3.5% by year end, that is still far below historic norms of 5%-6%. If your deal does not work with the ten year at 3.5%, you should not do the deal, because when they go to 5%, you will be crushed.

It is clear the NAFTA and EU trade deals will get done in the next month, and Japan and S Korea will also be signed this year.  The real fight has always been China and revising the WTO to make it functional, and not just another make believe powerless organization like the UN. The belief by westerners was the WTO would force China to adhere to western trade norms, but all it di was to cover for China and allow them to break every rule. You may hate Trump and you may think tariffs are the wrong way to deal with this, but decades of inaction by all past administrations accomplished zero, so maybe by taking advantage of the economic weakness in China now, Trump can really force change. Once the other trade deals are done, other than China, the stock market will continue its bull run, and capital costs will remain low for corporations. Effective borrowing rates will remain relatively low on a historic basis, so the overall cost of capital for everyone will still be at a lower basis than most anytime in modern history. This translates to the ability of corporations, and consumers to spend on new projects and renovations.