Tennessee schedule again set up for late season surprises

Tennessee’s last football season was distinguished by surprising results in the second half of the season. The upcoming season has the potential for more of the same.

And the surprises could be both good and bad.

Florida and Georgia always come to the forefront when evaluating UT’s chances for winning the SEC East. And they will again this season, even though the Vols beat both the Gators and Bulldogs last year only to lose the division after upset losses to South Carolina and Vanderbilt.

From this preseason vantage point, three conference games in the second half of the season stick out: Kentucky and Missouri on the road, and LSU at Neyland Stadium.

Most preseason assessments would put Kentucky and Missouri in UT’s win column, and LSU in the loss column. But none are a sure thing.

Kentucky will return eight starters from an offense than piled up 635 yards in a 49-36 loss to Tennessee last season. And it will get the Vols at Commonwealth Stadium the week after Tennessee plays Alabama. Moreover, Kentucky’s offense could be even more productive.

Returning starter Stephen Johnson gives the Wildcats a running threat at quarterback, but his erratic passing (12-for-29 against Tennessee) is a problem. If former starter Drew Barker could make a successful comeback from a back injury, Kentucky might field an even more potent offense while making better use of a veteran receiving corps.

As bad its defense was, Kentucky can’t help but be better. Its greatest concern is on the front end, but its linebackers are experienced and its secondary has fewer question marks than Tennessee’s.

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Missouri will pose a similar threat to the Vols. It will be playing at home with 10 returning starters from an offense that amassed 740 yards in a 63-37 defeat at Neyland Stadium. Granted, its defense was a disaster, but – as in Tennessee’s case – injuries were a factor.

Also, don’t forget Tennessee’s history against Missouri. It was awful in a 31-3 loss in 2013 and struggled terribly in a 19-8 victory on a miserably cold evening in 2015.

Recent history is hardly encouraging for UT against LSU, which has won the last four games in the series and hasn’t won fewer than eight games in a season since 1999.

However, for all of LSU’s recent recruiting success, its next depth chart won’t be nearly as stacked with future pros as it has been. And although Derrius Guice might be the best running back in the country, LSU will still come up short at quarterback, and without its customary depth of talent at receiver.

The schedule also will be a plus for Tennessee. It will be coming off games against Southern Mississippi and Missouri while the Tigers will play West rivals Alabama and Arkansas leading up to Tennessee.

So UT fans shouldn’t write LSU off as a loss. But they shouldn’t be sure of victories over both Kentucky and Missouri, either.

John Adams is a senior columnist. He may be reached at 865-342-6284 or john.adams@knoxnews.com. Follow him at: Twitter.com/johnadamskns.